Farms.com's Risk Management Track Record

The Farms.com Risk Management team has been providing commodity advice for a long time. If you are thinking of subscribing to one of our commodity marketing subscriptions, you may be wondering how we have done in the past. What is the Farms.com Risk Management team's track record?  How successful was the Farms.com Risk Management team at making commodity marketing recommendations?

Grains Track Record

Our track record is based on a strategy that was developed over many years to achieve top dollars in futures markets and basis, but at the same time managing risk along the way. The Farms.com Risk Management strategy can be tailored to fit any farmer's marketing plan. Our plan is not to sell bushels every day, or every month and accept the average or to become a mediocre marketer, but rather to achieve the top 5-10% of grain prices and basis in any given year.

We do this by being an aggressive marketer when the opportunity arises, particularly in the late spring/summer months by placing hanging orders above the market futures price.  For example, like in 2012 when we sold 50% of our new crop December 2012 corn bushels a year earlier in 2011 at $6.00/bushel but did not sell the remaining 50% until corn was above $8.00/bushel.

We enhance our marketing by using futures and options at extreme market tops like in 2012 for unhedged bushels as well as using our in house fundamental and technical analysis research and our proprietary technical buy and sell signals (change in trend, market top and bottom calls) that work 9 out of 10 times.

On top of this we provide a selling advantage with our yearly U.S. Corn Belt Crop Tour to help us make a decision in early July every year whether corn prices are headed back to $9.00 or $3.00/bushel.  

As part of the marketing plan we also will keep 20-30% of the bushels for farmers with storage to sell the following summer as “play bushels”. At the end of the day, we achieve 3 goals, maximize returns (achieving high future prices and basis) while reducing risk and avoiding selling at market lows.  It’s a win, win, win situation and that is why farmers choose Farms.com Risk Management over the competition. 

Grains
2007 15.1%
2008 15.1%
2009 18.0%
2010 14.05%
2011 17.2%
2012 12.25%
2013 *5.28%
2014 ***13.37%
2015 ****12.03%
2016 ******N/A

Hogs Track Record

Hog futures are one of the most volatile commodities in the world, but our marketing plan is very simple manage the risk through the most critical period August 15 – February 15 in any given year and leave mid-February – Mid-August open to the cash market to experience the seasonal run up in futures each year. Some years are better than others and we will sometimes push the critical period to April 15.

We prefer hedging 80%  of our hog production with a packer and we also prefer managing futures and basis separately and prefer using futures and options to manage the remaining 20% of unhedged production due to production or  sort loss. In the year of PEDV 2013 our program did not sell June 2013 hogs at $90 and locked in corn feed at $5.00, but achieved record all time high prices selling into cash and at or near market highs at $128/cwt.

We enhance our marketing plan by placing hanging orders above the futures price by using our in house fundamental and technical analysis research and our proprietary technical buy and sell signals (change in trend, market top and bottom calls) that work 9 out of 10 times. We also manage feed as it is the largest cost to any hog producer's operations by booking physical feed forward (corn/soybean meal) when grain markets are at the bottom usually around October 1 of each year when grain supplies are at their peak around harvest time.

At the end of the day, we achieve 4 goals maximize returns (achieving high future prices and low basis) while reducing risk and avoiding selling at market bottoms while locking in low feed costs. It’s a win, win, win, win situation and that is why more farmers choose Farms.com Risk Management over the competition. 


Hogs
2007 15.8%
2008 22.1%
2009 *H1N1
*Put Options to Protect Downside/Cash Open
2010 7.7%
2011 1.0%
2012 7.25%
2013 2.75%
2014 Hogs Sold Cash Record Highs
2015 *****5%
2016 *****5%

 

 

Live and Feeder Cattle Track Record


Our live and feeder cattle marketing plan is very simple by managing risk through the most critical period August 15 – February 15 in any given year and leave mid-February – Mid-August open to the cash market to experience the seasonal run up in futures each year. Some years are better than others and we will sometimes push the critical period to April 15.

We prefer hedging 80% of our cattle and feeder cattle production with a packer and we also prefer managing futures and basis separately and prefer using futures and options to manage the remaining 20% of unhedged production due to production or sort loss. In the record years of 2012, 2013 and 2014 our marketing kept our farmers in the game and sold at all-time record highs, selling into the cash market and only receiving our first sell signal in late December of 2014 at $160/cwt for live cattle and $230/cwt on feeder cattle.

We enhance our marketing plan by placing hanging orders above the futures price by using our in house fundamental and technical analysis research and our proprietary technical buy and sell signals (change in trend, market top and bottom calls) that work 9 out of 10 times. We also manage feed as it’s the largest cost to any cattle producers operations by booking physical feed forward (corn/soybean meal) when grain markets are at the bottom usually around October 1 of each year when grain supplies are at their peak around harvest time.

At the end of the day, we achieve 4 goals maximize returns (achieving high future prices and low basis) while reducing risk and avoiding selling at market bottoms while locking in low feed costs. It’s a win, win, win, win situation and that is why more farmers choose Farms.com Risk Management over the competition. 

Cattle
2013 **Cattle Sold Cash
2014 **Cattle Sold Cash
2015 *****5%
2016 *****5%

 

*100% booked forward on Guaranteed Revenue Insurance Bushel Yield, Short Futures & Bought Put Options
**Forecasted New All Time Record Highs
***100% booked forward on corn, oats, soybeans, canola and wheat, Short Futures & Bought Put Options
****75-80% booked forward on corn, oats, soybeans, canola and wheat on Guaranteed Revenue Insurance Bushel Yield
*****Sold 80%, 20 futures/put options
******0% booked thus far for 2016


 

 

Marketing Programs