2017 Farms.com Risk Management Ontario Planting Intentions Report

 

2017 3rd Annual Farms.com Risk Management
Ontario Planting Intentions Survey


Congratulations to the Winners of the Random Draw Prizes!

As our way of saying thank you for completing the Farms.com Risk Management Planting Intentions Survey, three survey participants were chosen at random to win cash prizes.

Congratulations to the following cash prize winners!

  • $300 - Dave DeVries, Wellington County
  • $200 - Gerald Hayter, Huron County
  • $100 - Nathan Thomson, Grey County

2017 Farms.com Risk Management Ontario Planting Intentions Survey Results
Surprise!

Prior to the latest USDA 2017 March Planting Intentions Report survey, the trend was to plant more soybean acres in 2017 due to better economics, a soybean to corn ratio trading above 2.55 and for rotation purposes as too many corn acres were planted in 2016. The final USDA report did not surprise as U.S. farmers overwhelmingly decided that they intend to plant more soybean acres in 2017, a record 89.5 million acres, up 7% vs. 2016 and drop their corn acreage by 4% to 90 million acres.

However, a recent survey by Farms.com Risk Management is suggesting, surprisingly, the exact opposite in Ontario, as farmers intend to add more corn acres in 2017 vs. 2016! The Canadian dollar (CDN $) continues to remain friendly for Ontario basis and is the farmer bonus program that just keeps on giving. Soybean acres are down slightly from last year and all wheat acres are down by 10.13%. Corn acres are projected to remain above the 5-year average of 2,080,442 million acres. Stats Canada will release their 2017 Planting Report sometime around the end of April 2017 (probably by April 21st, 2017).

2017 planting intentions survey responses

According to the Farms.com Risk Management 2017 Ontario Planting Intentions farmer survey, conducted during March 1 - March 31, 2017, Ontario farmers are expected to plant 2,279,282 million acres of corn in 2017 (up by 12.56% or 254,000 more acres vs. 2016). Soybean acres are expected to be down slightly (by about 10,000 acres vs. 2016) and all wheat acres are expected to be down by 10.13% vs. 2016 (almost down 108,000). The bottom-line is that we are maintaining soybean acres from 2016 but adding to corn and subtracting from wheat. 38% of the respondents who took the survey intend to increase their corn acres in 2017 vs. 49% who expect to increase soybeans acres and 30% who expect to increase wheat acres. In Western Ontario, 44% intend to increase corn acres vs. 49% for soybeans and 36% for wheat. In Eastern Ontario, 38% will increase corn acres. vs. 67% for soybeans and 60% for wheat.

2017 planting intentions survey report

"We are surprised with the results as most seed companies are suggesting a different story. But a lower CDN $ and lower input costs (at a 9-10 year low) have continued to provide an incentive to grow more corn acres. I thought beans in the teens ($13.00+/bushel) was attractive enough to add more soybean acres, but 2016 was dry and the average corn yield was below the 5 year average with soybeans about average," says Moe Agostino, Chief Commodity Strategist for Farms.com Risk Management.

Moe "Marketing Man" Agostino goes on to say that, "return, yield and rotation will play a significant role in the final planting decision but weather will most likely be the deciding factor moving forward. A wetter 2017 U.S. spring corn planting season that delays planting by 3 weeks would be supportive for prices. It could drive yields lower and ultimately prices higher, and thus make everyone more money!"

Planting Ontario corn acres by the end of the 3rd or 4th week of April is not unusual. With 4 record U.S. crops in a row, historically there is only a 77% probability that we will repeat what happened in 2016. If we get a 5th record U.S. crop, prices are most likely headed lower by the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2017. Current weather projections suggest a 50% chance of an El Nino for the 2017 summer growing season and it usually means plenty of moisture and cooler weather, a good growing season for the heart of the U.S. Midwest! Nonetheless, weather in North America has so far not been as perfect as many farmers would have loved to have. 2017 February was the 2nd warmest in history for the globe and the U.S. is on track to break the 2008 record for the most tornadoes ever and it's only April! It looks like the weather forecast for the spring and summer 2017 growing season will be wet and wild instead of dry and stable.

2017 Total Estimated Acres to be planted in Ontario

The acreage estimates in this report are based primarily on surveys conducted during the month of March 2017. The 2017 Farms.com Risk Management Planting Intentions Survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of farmers from across Ontario. This survey used to make acreage estimates is subject to sampling and non-sampling errors that are common to all surveys. Sampling errors represent the variability between estimates that would result if many different samples were surveyed at the same time. Sampling errors for major crops are generally between 1.0 - 3.0% but they cannot be applied directly to the acreage published in this report to determine confidence intervals because the official estimates represent a composite of information from more than a single source.

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