The Great Ontario Yield Tour will be celebrating its 5 year anniversary in 2020 and its track record speaks for itself. The tour, which takes place well before harvest, is unable to project test weight and late-fall weather-induced final harvested acreage and resulting yield differences. Given the early winter in 2019, final Ontario corn and soybean yields estimated by Statistics Canada could come in lower in the December crop report.
The tour’s 2016-2019 projected average corn yield of 166.2 bushels per acre (bpa) compares with Agricorp’s average over the same period of 178.3 bpa and Stats Canada at 163. On the soybean side, the tour’s 2016-2019 projected average yield is 43.6 bpa vs. Agricorp at 47.7 and Stats Canada at 46.3 bpa.
According to the 2019 4th Annual Great Ontario Yield Tour, the provincial yield on corn was projected at 173.2 bpa vs. Stats Canada’s August 2019 estimate at 162.5 bpa. The soybean yield was projected at 43.6 bpa vs. 46.3 bpa. Agricorp’s final insured acres (75%) for the province will most likely be delayed, however historically Stats Canada is too low and Agricorp a little too high.
Ontario Crop Statistics
Corn acres in 2019, +2.2% vs. 2018
Corn yield in 2019, -3.5 bu/acre vs. 2018
Soybean acres in 2019, +3.13% vs. 2018
Soybean yield in 2019, -5.1 bu/acre vs. 2018
Wheat acres in 2019, +4.12% vs. 2018
Wheat yield in 2019, -5.0 bu/acre vs. 2018
Snow fell early in Ontario this winter. Snow squalls came in early November and left a lot of snow on the ground and in fields. Due to the heavy snow and sub-zero temperatures, harvest for many farmers came to an abrupt stop. As the weather turns warmer in the second half of November/early December, farmers are hoping to finish harvest but some may decide to harvest the rest of their 19/20 crop during the spring of 2020 to allow for more dry down time. If quality and stalk stand is an issue, farmers should harvest the crop to be done with 2019 and fight another year.