The planting season went by extremely fast and under dry conditions, as reported by OMAFRA. Farmers were concerned with soil moisture and planted as deep as needed to plant seed into moisture. This has resulted in good germination and reasonable emergence in most fields setting the crops up for excellent yield potential. However, clay spoils provided a challenge to soybeans as a lot of replanting in the province.
The tour’s 2017-22 projected average corn yield of 180.6 bushels per acre (bpa) compares with Agricorp’s average over the same period of 183 bpa and Stats Canada at 166.1. On the soybean side, the tour’s 2017-22 projected average yield is 49.4 bpa vs. Agricorp at 49.2 and Stats Canada’s 2017-22 average yield of 48.6 bpa. Stats Canada has historically been seen to take the under while our estimates are more in line Agricorp’s.
According to the 2022 7th Annual Great Ontario Yield Tour, the provincial yield on corn was projected at 193 bpa vs. Agricorp’s 2021 estimate at 184.7 bpa (Stats Canada was only 166 bpa), and the soybean yield was projected at 52 bpa vs. Agricorp’s 48.5 bpa (Stats Canada was at 48 bpa).
Ontario Crop Statistics
|
2,280,100 acres
Corn acres in 2023, +0.18% vs. 2022
166.0 bu/acre
Corn yield in 2022, -5.3 bu/acre vs. 2021 |
|
2,915,200 acres
Soybean acres in 2023, -5.4% vs. 2022
48.0 bu/acre
Soybean yield in 2022, -7.5 bu/acre vs. 2021 |
|
1,187,100 acres
Wheat acres in 2023, +15.7% vs. 2022
93.6 bu/acre
Wheat yield in 2022, +6.8 bu/acre vs. 2021 |
The Canadian Drought Monitor pointed out that unlike prior months, May was relatively dry across southern Ontario, which received less than 40% of normal precipitation. This is contrary to the previous 3-month average where much of the region received between 85-150% of normal precipitation. A large pocket of Moderate Drought (D1) also expanded into northwestern Ontario as less than 25% of normal precipitation fell this month and 25-50% of normal precipitation since March. Southern Ontario also experienced significant dryness this month, however with the ample precipitation in the past 3 to 6 months, only a small section of Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions emerged. A small pocket of D0 also re-emerged around the Kitchener-Waterloo area as long-term impacts were still being felt.
Moisture in June helped but the forecast shows record heat during July/August? As of June 12th, 2023, OMAFRA’s crop conditions update said that field crops in general across Ontario were doing well and welcomed the rains during mid-June. The need for moisture is coming up as the corn begins rapid growth. Winter wheat looks good across the province although have been impacted by dry conditions in areas so we may not have the record yields that everyone was expecting. Rain across the province was welcomed but hail occurred in many areas with East Chatham-Kent through West Elgin reporting crop injury.
https://fieldcropnews.com/2023/06/crop-conditions-week-of-june-12th-2023/