It's day 16 - July 10th. We are starting our tour in the state of Michigan. My name is Moe Agostino, Chief Commodity Strategist for Farms.com Risk Management.
We are traveling northeast on Hwy 12, we are going to go north up towards Lansing, we are just off on Cronk Road and this is a local corn field. This area in the southern part of Michigan typically irrigates so we are not seeing any issues. It is dry but I'm not seeing any cracks. The field across the road is a bean field - there is a lot of weed pressure there, it doesn't look like the farmer has yet sprayed.
I'll give you some quick facts about Michigan agriculture. Michigan is the first in producing low fat ice cream mix, cucumbers, pickles, blueberries, and tart cherries.
The record yield for corn was last year at 162, and remember last year when we came through here they had a lot of issues with wet weather, but again we had a good finish and we had some good yields there. Total acres 2.35 million, in 2016 - down 6% from 2015. Good to excellent stands at 56%, very poor to poor at 12% vs the national average at 75%. Last year at this time, the corn was 65% good to excellent. Many guys are saying that if you look at a drought monitor map, Michigan is the driest - even drier than Ohio and guys are suggesting that it is Central Michigan that is very dry. Soybeans record yield was 49 in 2015, total acres is 2.03 million vs last year at 2.15 million. Good to excellent at 57%, very poor to poor is 12 %. This compares to last year at 59% good to excellent and very to poor at 14%. For the wheat, we have about 510,000 acres of wheat in 2016 vs 600,000 last year. The average yield was 81, up 7 vs 2014, for 2015. Again that dry weather is helping the wheat. We have seen some wheat fields and they are looking quite good. Good to excellent stands at 69% vs very poor to poor at 7%. This compares to the national average at 62%. So we are going to continue on our tour to see if we can get any of that dry weather and see if it has affected the crops in central Michigan.
[Video clips of Michigan field conditions]
It's day 16 - July 10th. We are traveling north on 52 just north of Stockbridge, Michigan. We are trying to find some dry corn, some dry soil. This one is dry but there is moisture in the ground. I am not seeing any cracks. This corn is a little bit more than head high. A lot of variability though, there is not a lot of uniformity or evenness to the crop. We have seen a lot of that here in Michigan. It's starting to burn up a little bit. Especially in the front rows there - burning up from the bottom up but still not bad. It's going to need some more rain, some timely rains to finish strong.
[Video clips of Michigan field conditions]
We are now traveling north on North Branch road just past North Branch, Michigan. We have seen enough here in the state of Michigan to end the tour in Michigan. We are going to end our tour for 2016 as well after 16 days. This is a nice soybean field. It looks like it rained on this field there is plenty of moisture in the ground. Michigan has been one of the driest states, probably Ohio comes a close second. But we are seeing the dryness affect the corn - a lot of variability. We are in the northern part of Michigan so, crops are not as far along as they should be but those crops probably were affected by some dry weather and they are going to pollinate a little bit later. Going to need some timely rains. There is rain in the forecast here soon, but the wheat looks like the best. The dry weather probably helped the wheat the most. Farmers in full swing at harvest up here. I think the beans come in a close second, I think there is not as much vegetation growth as we have seen in the other state. Sometimes vegetation growth, all show and no pods, sometimes concerns me. Corn looks the worst out of any state we have seen thus far out of all of the 12 states.
I am going to rate the beans average to above average, at this point. We had a lot of issues last year yet we pulled out a record crop. Same thing with the corn, but the corn is going to need some moisture to help it grow. It just doesn't seem like it is grown enough or developed enough at this stage of the game. Typically Michigan will pollinate at the end of July. I've got to think that a lot of the corn is behind. Going to rank the corn average to below average, in terms of an average for the state, I'm going to have to give it probably the worst rating of any of the states. I mean, I started Ohio and Indiana in that 6-6.5, I'm going to have to go with a 5-5.5 for the state of Michigan.
One last thing, we will have our summary video up most likely by July 15th. Going to give you a quick summary of what we have seen, key observations, and then I'll also try to estimate what I think the yields will be - for this time of year of course. You know, we always have to clarify that the rest of the growing season can determine that yield, so we are going to have to finish strong with some good rains for most of the U.S. through the end of July, as half of that corn will pollinate. And of course the beans will need some moisture through August. So look for that video on Friday, July 15th. Thank you.