2024 9th Annual Great ON Yield Tour

2022 US Corn Belt Crop Tour

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Midwest Yield Trends

Will 2022 U.S. Midwest Growing Season Solve Global Grain Tightness?

The 89-year drought cycle is alive and well! Some parts of the world recorded the hottest temperatures ever recorded on earth in April, with 120-degree temps (hottest ever recorded for the month) in India!

Spring 2022 was a mixed bag for U.S. Midwest planting season as it remained too wet and cold out east and too dry out west. Extreme moisture fell in the Northern Plains and eastern Canadian Prairies helping to remove the drought from last year, but flooding may lead to prevent plant acres in the Dakotas as much as 1+ million acres or less corn acres. Parts of North Dakota received more 4 inches of moisture (rain and melted snow). Spring also featured significant moisture for the far eastern Plains and Eastern Corn Belt. It just did not stop raining in the Northern Plains. Frequent rains delayed corn and/or soybean planting in the main production areas of Illinois, Indiana and Iowa as wet soils fast planting.

The month of July featured more moisture for the U.S. Midwest although it remained a story of 2 halves with the Eastern Corn Belt getting most of the moisture and the Western Corn Belt being drier but receiving periodic showers.

Last 60 Days Percent of Normal Precipitation, Valid on: July 21st, 2022

US 60 Day precipitation map

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

The U.S. Drought Monitor update as of July 19th, 2022, showed that the biggest change vs. the prior week was that northeast IN & northwest OH were removed from the abnormally dry category after the prior week's rainfall. Most areas, especially in south & west, were still abnormally dry or in moderate drought. 29% (down -1% wk/wk) of the U.S. corn production area and 26% (up +1% wk/wk) of the soybean growing area were experiencing drought as of July 19th. The U.S. spring wheat and cotton growing regions were better off wk/wk at 16% (-1% wk/wk) and 66% (-5% wk/wk) in drought, respectively.

Drought Monitor – U.S. Midwest 2022 vs. 2012

US Drought Classification map

The drought is spreading east?

The Current Drought is Spreading East

As of July 17th, 55% of U.S. topsoil moisture was rated adequate to surplus, vs. 58% last week and 61% at the same time last year. Subsoil moisture condition was rated 55% adequate to surplus vs. 58% last week and 59% last year.

Crop Moisture Index by Division

USDA Crop Progress as of July 17th, 2022

In USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report as of July 17th, 2022, U.S. corn conditions were unchanged at 64% G-E but soybean conditions dropped -1% to 61% G-E.

U.S. corn G-E ratings held steady wk/wk at 64% (vs. 65% last year), while those rated P-VP increased +1% wk/wk to 11% (vs. 9% last year). Given ratings declines in Indiana and Ohio, this report did not reflect the rains over the weekend? Illinois led the 'improving' states, up 4% G-E; Kansas (-9% G-E), Missouri (-5%), and the Dakotas (-6% SD, -4% G-E ND), led the decliners.

37% of the crop is now silking, well behind normal (48%), while 6% is in the dough stage (also slightly behind normal).

When comparing the late seeding this year to 2013, it turned out that that year the drop in planted area was a mere 0.6% or just 200,000 acres, while the three I-state weighted yield was quite decent, coming in 1.7% higher than the 20-year trend. However, 1995 was a different story, as late seedings that year resulted in a March-to-June acreage decline of 1.5 million acres or 5.2% with the final yield 11% below trend following a cold, wet spring and a mostly hot, dry summer.

US Corn Crop Conditions G-E

US Corn Conditions July 17, 2022

Soybean conditions deteriorated to 61% G-E & 10% P-VP compared to a week ago at 62% G-E and 9% P-VP while ratings this time last year were 60% G-E and 11% P-VP. The states that reported the best week over week improvement in G-E were led by AR +2 and NC +5, every other state was steady to lower. The states that saw the greatest week over week deterioration in G-E were led by IN -3, KS -6, LA -6, MS -10, NE -2, ND -6, and WI -2. P/VP was raised most in AR +2, IA +2, KS +3, LA +4, MO +4, ND +2, and TN +2.

The crop is 48% blooming up from 32% a week ago and compares to the 5-year average of 55%. The crop is 14% setting pods up from 6% a week ago and compares to the 5-year average of 19%.

US Soybean Crop Conditions G-E

US Soybean Conditions July 17, 2022

U.S. Midwest Weather Update as of July 21st, 2022

U.S. Midwest crop areas will continue in mostly good shape, despite dry pockets, according to World Weather Inc. Some relief to developing dryness from Nebraska to Minnesota is expected over the coming week with some rain Friday and more rain during mid-week next week. Relief from dryness in the southwestern Corn Belt and northern Delta is not likely in this first week of the outlook, but some rain is expected in the following week.

Northwestern U.S. Plains and southwestern Canada's Prairies may dry down for a little while keep some crop stress in place for a while.

Northern U.S. Delta, Missouri, Kansas and neighboring areas will not likely get much rain or relief from recent hot and dry weather for another week. Showers and thunderstorms should evolve late next week and into the following weekend offering a short term bout of relief. Much more rain will be needed, though, to turn around crops and follow up rainfall may not be very great.

U.S. northern Plains will get some timely rainfall in the next week to 10 days, but some of it may be a little light especially in the northwest where the driest soil is present.

Excessive heat in the central U.S. is expected to abate for a little while, but the next few days will continue hot enough to stress crops, livestock and humans from South Dakota to Texas. All of the heat should retreat into Texas late next week and into the following week while near to below average temperatures impact the northern Plains and Midwest.

Drought in the western U.S. will be intensified during the latter part of July because of a ridge of high pressure expected in the region and resulting hot and dry conditions. U.S. southeastern states will continue to experience a favorable mix of weather for a little while longer, but may dry down next week and into the following weekend.

U.S. NWS 30-day outlook puts most of the U.S. Midwest in a drier and warmer than usual mode for the month of August. Rainfall was advertised to be greater than usual in Florida, southeastern Alabama, Georgia and areas northeast into southeastern Virginia as well as Arizona and far western New Mexico. A large part of the Plains is also included in the warm and drier bias for the Plains.

Monthly Temperature Outlook Map

Monthly Precipitation Outlook Map

August forecasted to be “hotter & dryer” than normal

U.S. NWS 90-day outlook keeps most of the U.S. warmer than usual in the August through October period with below normal precipitation from the central Rocky Mountain region through most of the Great Plains and into the upper Midwest.

Seasonal Temperature Outlook July-Aug-Sep 2022

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook July-Aug-Sep 2022

BOTTOM-LINE

Overall, so far, weather is not a threat to the Midwest crops. Do not doubt the current crop genetics & technologies that have come a long way and can “do more with less”!

On tour, Moe Agostino’s top observations included farmers complaining of how dry it was in June and needing a rain soon, and never seeing corn curling or pineappleing this early before. But most of them received some level of moisture in July.

U.S. weather is still forecasted to be favorable till end of July with rain for most areas; including some of the drier areas of the Plains and southwestern Corn Belt.

2022 US Corn Belt Tour
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