News

Below are the latest news updates from Farms.com Risk Management

IGC dropped their global 22/23 corn production forecast but raised soybeans & wheat

Thursday, September 22, 2022

Most of the cut in corn was from lower expected US production at 354.2 MMT vs prior 364.7 MMT.

 

Ukraine's 2023 wheat harvest projected @ 16-18 MMT vs. 2022 expected @ 19 MMT

Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Some forecasting a 30-40% drop vs. 2022? European Matif wheat futures up 16% since hitting a low on Aug 18, 2022.

 

Canada inflation slows to 7% (vs expected 7.3% & last month 8.1%) as gas & shelter costs ease, food prices hit 41-yr high!

Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Core inflation (ex-food & energy) fell to 5.2%. Some relief for Bank of Canada (which raised interest rates 3% thus far this year)?

 

Commodity currency in freefall due to soaring US$ & falling commodity prices!

Monday, September 19, 2022

Downward sloping downtrend creates new lows & lower highs. US Fed expected to raise interest rates by 75bps this week (if not more?). More US$ strength = lower CDN$ & higher basis.

 

US natural gas bouncing from $7.404 as we go into fall

Monday, September 19, 2022

High temps for parts of Midwest & S. Plains support cooling demand. La Nina winter deep freeze could raise heating demand, supporting gas prices? Soaring LNG could take fertilizer prices up as well.

 

Bullish USDA WASDE boosted soybean futures, with soy meal leading soy oil in product trade

Thursday, September 15, 2022

Including corn, feed remains elevated. If China returns to buying from US, add more risk premium? South American production also at risk with 3rd straight La Nina?

 

US$ relentless upward sloping uptrend continues! On course for strongest year since 1984, it has further to run?

Thursday, September 15, 2022

Up 15+% this year, it is crushing the #euro & #yen to 2-decade lows & #pound to lowest in ~40 years.

 

Crude oil fluctuates on demand concerns, US reserve restocking plan. On course for 1st quarterly loss in 2+ years

Wednesday, September 14, 2022

Tighter monetary policies to tame inflation hurt energy consumption outlook. Hit lowest since January earlier this month.

 

Commodity currency Canadian$ testing major support near 0.756, weighed down by a soaring US$ & crude oil weakness

Wednesday, September 14, 2022

US Fed committed to interest rate hikes (Bank of Canada too). Lower CDN$ is supportive for Canadian Ag basis...

 

Wheat futures recovery bounce from last month's bottom. Russia-Ukraine export rhetoric & demand related optimism?

Wednesday, September 14, 2022

US$ strength a headwind. Stats Canada #wheat production est. was higher vs expectations & prior est.

 

Last week Stats Canada released the July 2022 stocks report, canola stocks were well below expectations.....

Wednesday, September 14, 2022

.....along with all wheat & barley. Despite tighter inventories, veg oil/palm oil weakness weighs on canola.

 

StatsCanada 2022 canola production est 19.1 MMT, down vs 19.9 expected & prior est 19.5 mmt

Wednesday, September 14, 2022

All wheat, barley, oats, soybeans & corn higher vs prior. All Prairie crops significantly higher vs last year's drought disaster!

 

Corn futures supported by faltering crop conditions & lower US crop yield expectations

Tuesday, August 30, 2022

At current stage in growing season, soybeans will benefit more (vs corn) from conducive weather. Buy corn, sell soy!

 

Tyson Foods pork packing plant in Logansport, Indiana, suspended from exporting products to China, USDA said

Tuesday, August 30, 2022

This follows China's halt on meat shipments from 2 other US plants in the past month, citing the presence of ractopamine.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-29/china-halts-some-meats-imports-from-u-s-processor-tyson-foods#xj4y7vzkg

 

 

Stats Canada 2022 July Model-Based Crop est. higher vs expected for wheat (incl. spring wheat & durum), corn, & soybeans.....

Monday, August 29, 2022

.....but lower vs expected for canola, barley & oats. All much higher Y/Y after last year’s western Canadian drought disaster.

 

US$ Index @ 2-decade high! Sustained strength sets the next target @ 4th price count near 112.44

Friday, August 26, 2022

US Fed says aggressive rate hikes on the cards to cool inflation. Recent higher job openings data suggests economy is strong despite 2 straight quarterly GDP drops.

 

4 consecutive La Nina events is rare, but it is coming as part of the 89-year drought cycle?

Thursday, August 18, 2022

This will be the 3rd time that La Nina has continued for 3 years in a row in ~70 years of records! 3 consecutive La Ninas happened in 1973-76 & 1998-2001.

 

More than 100 million Americans will be exposed to extreme heat by 2053, mostly in the South and Midwest

Wednesday, August 17, 2022

Next year ~50 US counties (8 mil people) expected to experience temps 125+ F. 30 years later, extreme temps will be experienced in 1000+ counties (108 mil) mostly in South & Midwest. TX & FL will bear brunt of climate change, + Midwest.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/15/south-midwest-will-see-worst-increases-in-extreme-heat-by-2053.html

 

 

China deployed 25 teams to help protect crops along middle & lower Yangtze River

Tuesday, August 16, 2022

Rain along valley fell 30% in July & Aug is ~60% lower. Temps soar & expected to last another couple weeks, they will pump water & look to seed clouds.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-yangtze-river-shrinks-heatwave-drought-threaten-crops-2022-08-15/

 

 

S. Plains struggle with hot & dry conditions...

Monday, August 15, 2022

NOAA says TX had warmest spring-summer, Oklahoma July was 4th warmest. KS July in top 20%. US 76.4F was 3rd warmest. '23 wheat planting in jeopardy as 3rd consecutive La Nina takes hold?

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/ag-weather-forum/blog-post/2022/08/11/continued-la-nina-unfavorable-wheat?referrer=NLSnapshot

 

 

Cotton futures moved limit up today after USDA slashed 22/23 US yield!

Friday, August 12, 2022

Production 12.6 mil bales, lowest since 09/10, high abandonment in Southwest. Carryout 600,000 bales lower, 12.6% stock/use ratio -8% lower Y/Y & lowest since 1924/25!

 

Europe's drought worst in 500 years? EU corn harvest cut -10MMT to 15-year low 55.4MMT!

Thursday, August 11, 2022

Worsening drought & successive heatwaves in France, Romania & Hungary strained crop during crucial summer growth. Will they import US corn?

 

EIA’s Aug Short-Term Energy Outlook- US retail Gasoline avg $4.56/gal in July & diesel $5.49/gal

Tuesday, August 9, 2022

EIA expects retail gas to avg $4.29 in Q3 & fall to $3.78 in Q4. Diesel $5.02 Q3 & $4.39 Q4. Lower US gas demand before end of summer driving not a good sign!

 

Oct lean hogs @ $100! 1st time that Oct climbed into 3-digits in Aug!

Monday, August 8, 2022

2014 high of $118.35/cwt was on July 7! Marketing hole ahead? Oct could narrow discount next Monday as it remains wide historically. This despite recession fears, given elastic meat demand.

 

UN FAO global food price index off 13.3 pts (-8.6%) in July, 4th straight monthly drop & largest since Oct 2008,.....

Friday, August 5, 2022

.....but it remains +13.1% higher Y/Y. Steep drop in veg oil & cereal, while sugar, dairy & meat also fell some.

 

GOLD resumes its safe haven charm? Some point to China-Taiwan-U.S. tensions escalation this week

Thursday, August 4, 2022

UK's grim economic outlook also pushing some safe-haven buying as Bank of England raised interest rate by +0.5%, largest since 1995?

 

Has US Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan put more pressure on US-China trade?

Wednesday, August 3, 2022

Phase 1 deal was likely already dead, now it's surely buried? Demand will be a problem moving forward, especially into 2023 without China? Who will replace them?

 

US$ trying to bounce off lowest since early July, as Fed hints more rate hikes coming

Tuesday, August 2, 2022

Job openings fell most in 2+ years in June as labour demand eased in retail & wholesale, but labour market remains tight, hence more rate hikes likely.

 

IMF cut global growth projections, expects growth @ 3.2% in 2022 before slowing to 2.9% GDP rate in 2023,.....

Friday, July 29, 2022

.....off 0.4% & 0.7% vs April forecast. World Bank in June cut 2022 global growth to 2.9% vs earlier est. 4.1% due to similar macroeconomic pressures.

 

Crude oil fell to lowest since Feb as US summer gasoline consumption fell below COVID-19 levels

Friday, July 29, 2022

Furthermore, OPEC+ to raise output by 100,000 barrels a day in September. More proof that inflation trade is unwinding into recession trade?

 

Rabobank quarterly pork report- global trade should pick up in 2nd half of 2022 (1st half was quieter),.....

Thursday, July 28, 2022

.....mostly due to increased China import demand as domestic prices climb. ASF, inflation & global growth concerns are still risks to meat demand.

 

Grain markets bake weather premium back in as high pressure ridge returns next week & into mid-August

Thursday, July 28, 2022

Midwest will face dryness & excessive heat? Bullseye on Iowa. Drought Monitor showed dry conditions form west & south rapidly spreading east.

 

Wheat Quality Council tour estimates North Dakota avg spring wheat yield @ 49.1 bpa, vs long term tour avg 39.4 bpa

Thursday, July 28, 2022

USDA is @ 51.0 bpa. Strong crop in the making but still 6 weeks left before harvest- all will be weather-watching!

 

US crude oil exports soared to all-time high last week, drawing down on stockpiles, due to strong global demand

Thursday, July 28, 2022

US crude is @ big discount vs international Brent. US crude stocks dropped 4.5 mil barrels (vs expected 1 mil drop) last week to 422.1 mil.

 

US drought forces producers to liquidate cattle herd & inventory continues to contract

Wednesday, July 27, 2022

60% (& rising) of cattle in drought area. 50% of pastures in P-VP condition. 2022 so far, #beef cow slaughter highest since 1996- 2nd lowest beef cow herd in 50 yrs!

 

International Grains Council (IGC) lowered 22/23 global corn production forecast to 1.189 bil mt, off -1 MMT vs prior outlook

Thursday, July 21, 2022

They increased 22/23 global wheat production to 770 MMT, up +1 MMT vs prior outlook.

 

Germany national railways Deutsche Bahn to start freight trains to carry Ukraine grain exports to German ports for loading on ships

Thursday, July 21, 2022

DB runs trains with aid cargoes to Ukraine, & now will load grain on return journey.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germanys-deutsche-bahn-plans-trains-ukraines-grain-exports-2022-07-21/

 

 

WTI crude oil falters near $100! Fell below $95 today on stuttering US summer gas demand. Also Libya output rising.....

Thursday, July 21, 2022

.....above 0.7 mil bpd after export restrictions lifted in recent days- expected to return to 1.2 mil bpd in a week/10 days.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/oil-slumps-with-stuttering-u-s-fuel-demand-libya-ramp-up-1.1794771

 

Global dairy prices @ 10-month low, resilient demand falls off, especially from China as COVID-19 lockdowns weigh on economy

Wednesday, July 20, 2022

This despite milk supplies remaining tight worldwide. Global Dairy Trade price index fell -5%, now lowest since Sept 7, 2021 auction.

 

Commodity Currency CDN$ breaking lower, below long term range-bound trade!

Thursday, July 14, 2022

This despite Bank of Canada raising interest rates by a historic full percentage point yesterday to fight inflation. US$ Index continues march higher, testing 1.09, & is a headwind.

 

US$ Index breaks above 108 as "safe haven" trade continues on recessionary fears

Wednesday, July 13, 2022

Central banks are resorting to steep interest rate hikes to rein in runaway inflation, and the tighter monetary policy in turn weighs on growth prospects...

 

Summer feeder cattle futures break above recent trading range & higher thru overhead resistance

Wednesday, July 13, 2022

USDA raised 2022 & 23 US beef export prospects as demand strengthens. 2022 average US cattle price expectations also raised. Livestock futures generally buoyant.

 

Bank of Canada surprised by increasing interest rates by +1% (vs expected 0.75%) to 2.5% to curb inflation, biggest 1-time increase since 1998!

Wednesday, July 13, 2022

Look for US Fed to follow suit at their July meeting? US CPI @ 4 decade high 9.1% vs 8.8% expected & 8.6% prior.

 

COVID-19 commodity leader lumber futures on a recovery bounce since mid-June, but pausing having hit overhead resistance

Tuesday, July 12, 2022

Following the volatility of last 24 months or so, with record spikes & steep corrections, do we see a more stable market ahead?

 

CONAB reduced Brazil 21/22 soybean production from 124.27 MMT to 124.04 (USDA @ 126).....

Thursday, July 7, 2022

.....exports unchanged at 75.23 MMT. Total corn production increased from 115.22 MMT to 115.66 (USDA @ 116), exports increased from 37 MMT to 37.5.

 

CONAB reduced Brazil 21/22 soybean production from 124.27 MMT to 124.04 (USDA @ 126).....

Thursday, July 7, 2022

.....exports unchanged at 75.23 MMT. Total corn production increased from 115.22 MMT to 115.66 (USDA @ 116), exports increased from 37 MMT to 37.5.

 

Italy declared emergency for areas surrounding river Po (accounts for ~1/3 of Ag production & suffering worst drought in 70 yrs)

Tuesday, July 5, 2022

Crisis due to 3 yrs of drought & warmer temps. & this year, crop seeding reduced due to high input costs!

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/05/italy-declared-a-state-of-emergency-because-of-drought-in-the-po-river.html

 

Risk-Off & Safe Haven Trade On! US$ index sharply over 106 (highest since Dec 2002)

Tuesday, July 5, 2022

.....as all run for cover on recession fears. Covid-19, Russia-Ukraine conflict (black swan events), inflation push world further into uncharted territory?

 

Stats Canada June 2022 canola, spring wheat, corn, soybeans, oats acreage bearish vs. expectations, weighing on futures

Tuesday, July 5, 2022

Weather takes back seat at the moment for prices...

June 2022 Canadian crop areas (Mil Acres)

 

(Mil Acres)

Stats Canada - June 2022

June 2022 Trade Expectations

Stats Canada - April 2022

2022 June vs. April Change

2021 Final

Canola

21.416

21.3

20.9

+2.47%

22.479

All Wheat

25.395

24.7

25

+1.58%

23.36

Durum

6.006

6.1

6.2

-3.13%

5.53

Spring Wheat

18.212

17.5

17.6

+3.48%

16.481

Barley

7.045

7.7

7.5

-6.07%

8.296

Soybeans

5.274

5.2

5.4

-2.33%

5.321

Oats

3.972

3.9

4

-0.70%

3.423

Flax

0.779

0.89

0.87

-10.46%

1.027

Corn

3.633

3.5

3.7

-1.81%

3.492

Source: Statistics Canada, QTPlus

 

Global crop concerns abound. #Italy's worst #Drought in 70 years means salt water from Adriatic sea flows back into sluggish river Po.....

Wednesday, June 29, 2022

.....(their longest river), doing more damage to crops hit by an early summer #heatwave; makes irrigation impossible.

https://news.sky.com/story/italy-looming-agricultural-catastrophe-as-saltwater-from-adriatic-damages-crops-12642432

 

Grain markets see a proper recovery today on diminishing US crop & soil moisture conditions

Tuesday, June 28, 2022

57% of topsoil is rated adequate-surplus vs 75% mid-June & 59% LY. Subsoil is 59% adequate-surplus vs 72% mid-June & same level LY.

 

2022 July cotton plummets ~25% in 1 trading day last week, on 06-24-22

Monday, June 27, 2022

What a wild ride! End of month, end of quarter, margin calls and expiration all played a role. It appears to be pricing in reduced demand due to anticipated economic slowdown.

 

For June 30 (12PM ET) USDA June Acreage & quarterly Grain Stocks data, pre-report corn & spring wheat acreage estimates are maybe coming in too high?

Friday, June 24, 2022

Worsening crop progress + bullish crop reports + return to extreme heat = potential 2022 summer "melt up"?

 

Palm Oil futures took the early lead with higher prices in 2022.....

Thursday, June 23, 2022

.....; it was the first to peak, first to fall & now bottom. Look for a similar pattern in all other grain markets. If "flash drought" in July verifies, corn will become the leader!

 

WTI Crude Oil plunged in June! US admin will ask Congress to pass 3-month halt on federal gasoline tax to help pump prices

Wednesday, June 22, 2022

This would create more demand? But we need more global supplies! Saudi Arabia is increasing monthly supplies, next OPEC meeting June 30th.

 

Global veg oil weakness! Soybean oil down to 2+ month low; canola & Palm Oil @ 3.5 month low

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

Add wheat market drop, & global food inflation eases some? But we are in weather markets & with summer ahead, concerns linger...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-21/global-food-inflation-gets-reprieve-as-wheat-to-palm-oil-tumble

 

More Cattle stress after recent deaths in Kansas! Weekend central US heat wave still forecasting 95-105F from Texas to Dakotas-Minnesota.....

Friday, June 17, 2022

.....& 90s in Canada's E. Prairies. Extreme 105-110F possible in parts of Central Plains. Week 2 keeps high pressure ridge in Great Plains.

 

Ukraine estimates ~2.4 mil ha of winter crops may not be harvested due to Russia invasion; grain estimated to be worth $1.435 billion

Thursday, June 16, 2022

Just adds to their export handicap, on top of Russia reportedly seizing their grains & controlling ports.


https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ukraine-says-24-million-hectares-winter-crops-wont-be-harvested-because-war-2022-06-15/

 

With USDA June Acreage looming, IHS Markit (Informa) raised their corn acres est. at the expense of soybeans & wheat acres

Wednesday, June 15, 2022

Are they too high on corn acres after the wet, cool & late N. Plains planting season, including Ohio, & given high input prices?

 

Stock Markets continue bear plunge! US Fed expected to increase interest rates 50 or 75 basis points (90% chance)

Tuesday, June 14, 2022

May US inflation @ new 40-year high 8.6%. Crypto crashes as Bitcoin @ 18-month low. Recession fears L-T support at 3700.

 

Investors retreat back into safe haven US$? Major crypto-currencies crash by double-digits is weighing on markets

Monday, June 13, 2022

Sentiment also fouled by more (possible) China zero-COVID lockdowns and/or big US Fed rate increase this week?

 

Food inflation fueled by soaring orange juice prices as well. US retail prices up 7+% Y/Y in Q1-2022!

Friday, June 10, 2022

US largest orange grower Florida under hurricane & citrus greening disease pressure. Also, drought hit biggest producer Brazil, tightening global supplies!

 

Western Canada train wreck! Red River Valley in S. Manitoba only planted 50% corn acres, switched to canola but it crusted/diseased, lots of reseeding

Thursday, June 9, 2022

.....& no seed! Total 13.7 mil acres left to plant as of June 1. No bumper crop? Higher prices? Stocks reman tight!

2022 Western Canadian Crop Acreage Left to Be Planted As of June 1

(in Acres)

Alberta

Saskatchewan

Manitoba

Canola

469,418

3,790,286

6 mil total acres of intended crop area remains to be planted.

Spring Wheat

176,688

1,998,275

Corn

0

N/A

Soybeans

N/A

10,218

Oats

194,754

896,161

Barley

275,095

947,019

Total for these crops

1,115,955

7,641,959

Source: Provincial Government Data

 

IGC projects -40 MMT Y/Y drop in 22/23 global grain production to 2.251 bil MT, due to smaller wheat, corn & sorghum crops

Tuesday, June 7, 2022

Even with lower consumption, global grain ending stocks remain tight. Global soybean output expected to rise +11% Y/Y.

 

Russia's UN Ambassador stormed out of Security Council meeting today as EU Council accused Russia of fueling global food crisis by invading Ukraine

Monday, June 6, 2022

What next? Can't write this story if we tried!


https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-un-envoy-storms-out-ukraine-meeting-over-european-statement-2022-06-06/

 

EPA reported 15 bil gallon corn ethanol mandate for '22, with total 20.63 bil- slightly better vs expected 20.6

Friday, June 3, 2022

For '21, 18.84 bil vs expected 18.8. '20 @ 17.13 vs expected 17.1. Plan to deny 69 small refiner waiver petitions very supportive corn for a change!

 

OPEC+ raises output faster than expected as Russia's war threatens energy markets. Crude oil will remain elevated for years,.....

Thursday, June 2, 2022

.....unlike 2008, with new normal at $100/barrel? Saudi could suspend Russia from OPEC+ due to sanctions related to Ukraine war.

 

Underground vaults near Ukraine battlefield hold genetic code for ~2000 crops, which could be permanently destroyed

Wednesday, June 1, 2022

Research facility near Ukraine seed bank was damaged. Both are in Kharkiv, which Russia has bombed.


https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-giant-seed-bank-risk-being-lost-war-rages-2022-05-31/

 

Russia-Turkey talk June 8 on potential Ukraine Ag shipping corridor, in exchange for lifting some western sanctions

Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Putin supposedly ready to facilitate exports? Chances very low, who can trust him. Month-end selling a buyers delight!


https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-russia-ready-facilitate-unfettered-grains-supply-ukraine-2022-05-30/

 

Lack of daily USDA US export announcements, particularly from China/unknown, is weighing. particularly for corn. Only 4 in May!

Friday, May 27, 2022

Is China waging a quiet war against the West? More N. Plains pain with more moisture this weekend adds risk premium back to futures.

 

USDA India attache report- 22/23 wheat yield off 10%-15% on heat stress. Production lower to 99 MMT vs prior 110 & India Ag Ministry @ 106!

Thursday, May 26, 2022

22/23 exports ~6 MMT down vs initial estimate @ 10 MMT & last year's 8.5. No wiggle room for global balance-sheet?

 

Grains sell-off buoyed by headlines of potential food corridor deal with Russia that allows Ukrainian Ag exports, in return for lifting some sanctions

Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Most are skeptical, but such a deal adds another seller to grain exports?

 

Gold regains safe haven mojo as US$ eases off? Fed will be less aggressive with rate hikes, given growth fears?

Tuesday, May 24, 2022

US Treasury yields fell from recent highs. Inflation still at 40-year high, housing eases some, others to follow?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/24/gold-markets-dollar-federal-reserve-interest-rate-inflation.html

 

 

Global grain supplies keep tightening! IGC grains estimated 22/23 global corn production @ 1.184 bil MT, down vs prior 1.197 (USDA @ 1.181)

Friday, May 20, 2022

They also lowered 22/23 global wheat -11 MMT to 769 MMT (USDA @ 774.83). Further reductions likely this summer?

 

China removed 3-year ban on imports of Canadian canola seed,.....

Thursday, May 19, 2022

.....no reason provided, but trade likely to be limited by low Canadian stocks & high prices? Ban was mostly due to politics, but current nature of global Ag & food tightness is forcing everyone's hand?

 

JPMorgan- strong US driving demand could push retail gasoline prices up by another 37% to $6.2/gallon. Refinery runs expected to peak in Aug,.....

Wednesday, May 18, 2022

.....US refiners will produce ~8.2 mil bpd. Margins record high! China lockdown by end of June- bullish oil demand.

 

India wheat export ban not priced in like some thought! US winter wheat back to 27% G-E. Wheat Quality Council tour this week to provide more insight

Monday, May 16, 2022

Global heat wave in France, Mexico. New record closing highs in KC; Chicago not far off & MN heading to $25?

 

Derecho with 100+ mph winds cause $500 to over 1 billion in damage power is out near Salem, SD

Friday, May 13, 2022

The fast-moving derecho traveled over 500 miles across Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, and Minnesota with winds speeds up to 135 miles per hour with post reports that some regions like in Salem, SD and Areas west of Minneapolis were hit the hardest and are worse than expected!

 

A bu/day US corn yield loss after 10th of May as planting delays continue in Midwest for the "I" States in the next 11 days & N. Plains.....

Thursday, May 12, 2022

.....with more moisture on the way! MN at 9% in 2022 vs. 81% in 2021. All equates to below trendline yields!

 

USDA pork cutout fell below $100 today- 1st since early-Feb, & weighs on hog futures. Looking ahead to grilling season, supply concerns abate some....

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

.....near-term on uncertain demand- slow China purchases (& strict COVID19 measures). But strong summer demand always shows up.

 

RINs from renewable diesel overtook biodiesel for 1st time in Q1-2022!

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

From 770 mil gallons of renewable diesel production in 2021, EPA est 2022 @ 1.59 bil, & trade est 3 bil in 2023, with steep growth there on. US may run out of soybean acreage for this demand spike?

 

Following a record March, world food prices eased slightly in April, but global food security is still a concern!

Monday, May 9, 2022

UN FAO food index @ 158.5 in April vs 159.7 in March. The small drop was due to lower veg oil & corn; meat @ record highs!

 

Stats Canada March '22 stocks tighter than expected & some of the tightest historically

Friday, May 6, 2022

All wheat off -39% Y/Y, canola -50%, barley -44%, oats -49%! W.Canadian drought also took out specialty crop stocks. E.Canadian corn & soybeans the only outliers!

 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange- 21/22 Argentina soybeans 12% G-E vs LW 16% G-E & way off from almost 90% G-E in Dec; Corn 16% G-E vs LW 19% G-E.....

Thursday, May 5, 2022

.....& nowhere near ~90% G-E from last Nov. SA shortfall just continues to propel US exports & futures to new record highs!

 

For Friday's Stats Canada report, trade expects March 31 All wheat stocks at 10.4 MMT vs LY 15.231, canola 4.58 vs LY 6.57.....

Wednesday, May 4, 2022

.....as drought weighed on production. Does not help the continued global supply tightness!

 

India’s heat wave 120 degrees record high for April could impose a wheat export ban as crop gets worse & tighten global food supply further

Wednesday, May 4, 2022

More pressure on global food security and higher wheat prices to ration demand!


https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-03/india-s-heatwaves-are-testing-the-limits-of-human-survival

 

Starting May1, new daily grain price limits take effect & will be effective till Nov 1. The largest commodity shock ever experienced since the 1970's-

Monday, May 2, 2022

- will see much more increased volatility! Buckle up!

 

SA crop deterioration continues- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange 21/22 Argentina Soybean conditions off 16% G-E, 58% fair, 26% poor vs LW 18% G-E,.....

Friday, April 29, 2022

.....59% fair, 23% P-VP. But #corn up 19% G-E, 59% fair, 22% P-VP vs LW 18% G-E, 59% fair, 23% P-VP. Production could drop further?

 

Global veg oil markets on fire with all-time records for Palm Oil, canola & soy oil. Markets accelerated on Indonesian palm oil export ban &.....

Wednesday, April 27, 2022

.....smaller-than-expected 2022 canola acreage by Stats Canada. Tightest ever stock-to-use ratio for veg oils this year?

 

Soy oil extended historic run with new all-time high while meal broke down into new lows for the month. Soy meal futures taking a back seat again to..

Tuesday, April 26, 2022

..... oil. Strong Soybean futures will get an "extra" boost when meal turns around?

 

Stats Canada canola acreage down -1.58 mil Y/Y to 20.9 mil & well below trade expectations. Global veg oils already struggling to keep up with.....

Tuesday, April 26, 2022

..... growing demand & this report says tight stocks will continue. Canola futures @ new all-time high!

 

Tuesday's Stats Canada planting intentions report expectations 2022 canola 22.11 mil acres vs LY 22.48; all wheat 24.2 vs 23.45; corn 3.4 vs 3.49;....

Friday, April 22, 2022

.....soybeans 5.52 vs 5.32; oats 3.75 vs 3.42; barley 8 vs 8.29. Could surprise with soaring fertilizer prices & looming 2022 drought?

 

Global veg oils remain red hot- Palm Oil, sunflower, Soybean & canola oil. May canola $1193.9/MT, new record high, +21% in 2022 & +119% vs early-2021!

Thursday, April 21, 2022

New crop Nov at new contract high, +39% & +111% respectively! New crop trying to buy acres?

 

US EPA recognizes canola for GHG emissions reduction

Wednesday, April 20, 2022

Renewable diesel, jet fuel & other fuels derived from canola oil 50+% lower emitting vs petroleum fuels. More market diversification & value added processing = more opportunities & higher prices!

 

May Natural Gas correcting from extreme overbought conditions, pulls back from 13+ year (accelerated) highs. 5 straight weeks of gains & up nearly 90%

Tuesday, April 19, 2022

.....in 2022. But higher price objective opened up at $8.65. Russian invasion of Ukraine late-Feb sent energies soaring.

 

May & July corn above $8/bu! Last time was July 2012. High in 2012 was $8.49 for Dec when USDA reported 122 bpa avg yield

Monday, April 18, 2022

Dec 23 corn futures 22 consecutive higher closing highs since March 18! Net cash price in Ontario $10, U.S. $8.00+ & Western Canada $11.80!

 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange dropped crop ratings again. 21/22 Argentina Soybean 23% G-E, 56% fair, 21% poor vs LW 25% G-E, 54% fair, 21% P-VP

Thursday, April 14, 2022

Corn 20% G-E, 58% fair, 22% P-VP vs LW 21% G-E, 55% fair, 24% P-VP. USDA left Arg production unchanged this month.

 

President Biden announced EIA will issue emergency waiver on summer ban of E15 to combat rising gas prices amid Russia-Ukraine

Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Year-round sales of E15! Waiver boosts ethanol demand = 13 mil bu more corn, but this is conservative at best.


https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/12/politics/us-gas-prices-waiver-joe-biden/index.html

 

Western Canada drought eased some in March as 38% of Prairies was in drought (including 85% of Ag land), lower than 45% prior month.....

Monday, April 11, 2022

.....(& 90% of Ag land). 60% of Canada's Ag land is in drought vs 65% prior month.

https://www.agr.gc.ca/atlas/maps_cartes/canadianDroughtMonitor/monthlyAssessments/en/2022/cdm_2203_mn_en.pdf

 

Members of Congress urge Pres Biden to review all options to lower cost (to farmer) of record high fertilizer. USDA in March announced.....

Friday, April 8, 2022

.....initiatives to address rising fertilizer prices, including investing $250 mil for new production.

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2022/04/07/high-fertilizer-prices-members-urge

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange 21/22 Argentina corn & Soybean crop conditions sharply lower!

Thursday, April 7, 2022

Corn 21% G-E 55% fair 24% P-VP vs LW 32% G-E 51% fair 17% P-VP; Soy 25% G-E 54% fair 21% P-VP vs LW 33% G-E 52% fair 15% P-VP, production could fall below 42MMT. Tightens global supply further!

 

USDA dropped 22/23 US spring wheat acreage -0.22 mil Y/Y to 11.2 mil. Stocks-to-Use falls to 5% from 28% last year!

Wednesday, April 6, 2022

For illustration, if similar demand as last year is assumed, with 10.5 mil harvested acreage & 33 bpa yield, ending stocks plummet!

 

2022 worst US winter wheat conditions in a decade & similar to 3 other years 1989, 2002 & 2018 could result in below average yields!

Tuesday, April 5, 2022

A drop to 39 bpa could lead 22/23 ending stocks to 394 mil bu from 653 if exports go from 800 mil bu to 900. Very bullish for prices in Q2!

 

15% of China's GDP is under lockdown including the largest global port in Shanghai with 300 ships waiting to unload vs. normal at only 100

Tuesday, April 5, 2022

Global supply chain disruption could last into 2025?

 

Canola futures were red hot today, old crop at new contract record closing highs while new crop record high for April. A cargo of Australian canola...

Monday, April 4, 2022

.....(33,000 MT) set sail to US, which reflects the tight global veg oil market.

 

Canola futures were red hot today, old crop at new contract record closing highs while new crop record high for April. A cargo of Australian canola...

Monday, April 4, 2022

.....(33,000 MT) set sail to US, which reflects the tight global veg oil market.

 

Friendly USDA March Hogs & Pigs report, with all categories below expectations, is supportive for futures despite recent profit-taking

Thursday, March 31, 2022

Tight inventory numbers hold potential for stronger prices into spring-summer? Disease is a major headwind for supplies!

 

Dow stock index accelerates on reversal higher, breaking out above the 100-day moving average near 35K. Geopolitics ease some on.....

Tuesday, March 29, 2022

.....Russia-Ukraine peace talks optimism. Premature but everyone can hope?

 

Cotton futures broke out this week to new highs as demand strength continues to overwhelm possible supplies in 2022. Southern US dryness supports

Monday, March 28, 2022

New crop buying acres? USDA report Thursday looms large!

 

For the week, hog futures closed at NEW CONTRACT HIGHS for all contracts out till July of 2023! What an impressive rally for this time of the year!

Friday, March 25, 2022

Support from strong cash & pork values during a time of robust demand but tight availability of market-ready hogs.

 

Though March saw some return to normalcy with the CDN$ & crude oil rising together, they seem to be largely decoupled over the last many years.....

Thursday, March 24, 2022

.....with almost 0 correlation? US$ moves are weighing heavy on the CDN$?

 

Rising Brazil real above 0.20 is bullish for the US soybean export program as Brazilian soybeans get too expensive. This further boosts.....

Wednesday, March 23, 2022

.....the current counter seasonal US old crop soybean export sales.

 

Nutrien says if Canadian Pacific railway labor strike lasts more than a few days, they may have to reduce potash production. They plan to boost.....

Friday, March 18, 2022

.....potash production by ~1 MMT in 2022 to 15 MMT, in the face of current global fertilizer shortage.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-scrambling-supply-massive-global-171732268.html

 

USDA China attaché forecasts 22/23 soybean imports at 100 MMT vs. 95 MMT expected for 21/22, due to higher hog inventories following ASF.....

Friday, March 18, 2022

.....along with higher poultry, ruminant & aquaculture capacity. Strong global demand continues.


https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Oilseeds%20and%20Products%20Annual_Beijing_China%20-%20People%27s%20Republic%20of_CH2022-0033.pdf

 

IGC reduced 21/22 Ukraine’s grain exports sharply to 47.8 MMT vs prior 62.8. corn exports to 21 MMT vs 31.9 prior, wheat to 20.8 vs 24.5 prior

Thursday, March 17, 2022

Russian grain exports reduced to 37.1 MMT vs 37.7 prior. Further adjustments likely...

https://www.reuters.com/article/grains-igc-idAFL2N2VK1JA

 

Avian influenza back in US, forces farmers to cull flocks, pushing up egg prices during rampant food inflation. East Coast & Midwest hit.....

Wednesday, March 16, 2022

USMEF- Following record 2021, US beef exports +13% Y/Y & value +57% to $1.03 bil in Jan, China exports +69% Y/Y & value +115%

Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Pork exports down -16% Y/Y & value -14% to $555.6 mil, but strong exports to leading market Mexico.

https://www.usmef.org/news-statistics/member-news-archive/strong-momentum-continues-for-u-s-beef-exports-pork-exports-trend-lower/

 

US inflation @ 40-year high, Feb CPI up +7.9% Y/Y! Fastest annual jump since 1982! CPI up +0.8% in Feb vs. Jan @ 0.6%. Surge in energy prices.....

Thursday, March 10, 2022

.....was one of the key contributors to the spike even before Russia-Ukraine war. Brace for further spike in March data.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-price-index-cpi-inflation-february-2022-203614415.html

 

USDA- 21/22 global soybean crush -5MMT on slower-than-expected crush pace for China & lower Brazil + Argentina+ Paraguay supplies,.....

Wednesday, March 9, 2022

.....sunflower seed crush -2.2MMT on Ukraine. This boosts soy oil imports for India & canola for EU.

 

London Metal Exchange paused nickel (crucial for making stainless steel & EV batteries) after prices doubled in just hours to record $100,000/MT.....

Tuesday, March 8, 2022

.....on short-covering as sanctions threatened major producer Russian supply. This is among 145-yr-old exchange's top 3 shutdowns!

 

"Worst in history" winter wheat crop conditions likely in biggest consumer China

Monday, March 7, 2022

Rare heavy rainfall last year delayed planting of ~1/3 of wheat acreage. 1st & 2nd grade crop down by 20+%? Sizable imports needed...


https://www.reuters.com/business/china-ensure-agricultural-product-supplies-including-grains-2022-03-05/

 

Pvt. estimates point to a whopping +40 MMT loss likely in South American soybean production

Friday, March 4, 2022

25.5 MMT loss in Brazil, 11-12 MMT in Argentina & 4-5 MMT in Paraguay, & the global balance sheet gets tighter & tighter!

 

Russian ruble collapsed to new lows as sanctions tighten around aggressor & its economy, trade & rich oligarchs feel pressure

Thursday, March 3, 2022

US & EU talks on banning Russian Crude Oil & gas? Many companies (IKEA) close their shops in Russia? Q2 GDP to fall -35%, full year down -7%!

 

USDA ag attache est Argentina 21/22 soybean output @ 41 mmt vs WASDE @ 44. Arg analysts already dropped it to 40.5 & AgResource dropped Brazil's.....

Wednesday, March 2, 2022

.....this wk to 119.45 (1st sub-120). Total loss of 34+ MMT/1.25 bil bu since start of season, with downward bias? Go US exports!

 

March Matif wheat soared +7.5% in 1 day to new record highs at $347. March Matif corn also jumped +8.7% also to new record highs!

Tuesday, March 1, 2022

The longer the Russia-Ukraine war lasts, the higher prices will go!

 

Brace for more food inflation? Soaring record palm oil, Matif wheat & corn continues to drive veg oil & grains higher on Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Monday, February 28, 2022

1+ months of port closures likely, tightening already tight global commodity supply chain.

 

Despite Friday's (Feb 25th) reversal after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, market volatility is likely only witnessing a pause? Crude Oil could spike

Friday, February 25, 2022

.....to $130+as the West sanctions Russian exports. Could we get a 2nd shock in 2022 & send the global economy into recession?

 

USDA Feb Ag Outlook Forum 22/23 US corn + soybeans at 180 mil acres may not be enough. 88 mil #soybeans is too low, higher wheat acres surprising

Thursday, February 24, 2022

Strong demand & tight Brazil + Argentina + Paraguay supplies could support US exports & tighten stocks further?

2022 Feb. USDA Ag Outlook Forum U.S. Crop Estimates

 

USDA 22/23 - Ag Outlook Forum Est.

22/23 Pre-Report Trade Estimates

22/23 USDA Projections in Nov. 2021

USDA 21/22 Final

USDA 21/22 - Ag Outlook Forum Est.

CORN

 

 

 

 

 

Acreage (Mil Acres)

92.0

91.8

92.0

93.4

92.0

Yields (bpa)

181.0

179.2

181.0

177.0

179.5

Production (Bil Bu)

15.24

15.05

15.24

15.115

15.15

Ending Stocks (Bil Bu)

1.965

1.62

1.935

1.540

1.552

SOYBEANS

 

 

 

 

 

Acreage (Mil Acres)

88.0

89.2

87.5

87.2

90.0

Yields (bpa)

51.5

51.5

51.5

51.4

50.8

Production (Bil Bu)

4.490

4.57

4.465

4.435

4.525

Ending Stocks (Bil Bu)

0.305

0.32

0.300

0.325

0.145

WHEAT

 

 

 

 

 

Acreage (Mil Acres)

48.0

47.8

49.0

46.7

45.0

Yields (bpa)

49.1

48.5

49.1

44.3

49.1

Production (Bil Bu)

1.940

1.92

2.003

1.646

1.827

Ending Stocks (Bil Bu)

0.731

0.68

0.636

0.648

0.698

Source: USDA, QTPlus

 

USDA Feb outlook forum is on 24th & 25th, when they publish their 1st 22/23 US crop balance sheet forecasts. Trade expects.....

Wednesday, February 23, 2022

.....soybean acreage @ 89.2 mil, corn 91.8 mil & wheat 47.8 mil, but March intentions will be more watched, followed by "real" new crop est. in May.

 

US winter wheat conditions deteriorate in major producer Kansas, & in the Dakotas, Oklahoma & Texas. Ratings largely are significantly lower Y/Y.....

Tuesday, February 22, 2022

.....for the same time. Less than ideal conditions are starting to weigh!

U.S. Winter Wheat Conditions as of Feb 20th, 2022

U.S. States Feb 20th, 2022 Change vs. Prior Report Y/Y Change
G-E % P-VP% G-E % P-VP% G-E % P-VP%
Illinois 59 10 17 -5 13 7
Colorado 21 40 1 0 2 11
Kansas 26 35 -4 4 -14 9
Montana 21 58 7 -7 -48 47
Nebraska 36 18 0 -1 2 -4
North Dakota 18 25 2 8 2 -8
South Dakota 24 19 -7 10 -17 3
Oklahoma 9 64 -7 21 -39 50
Texas 10 72 0 5 -20 41

Source: USDA

 

Malaysian palm oil to new record high & 1st above $6000 as veg oil strength powers on, driving food inflation higher!

Friday, February 18, 2022

This is forcing biggest importer India to buy US soy oil vs traditional sources Brazil & Argentina, where soybean supply is short due to severe drought.

 

Weekly Buenos Aires Grain Exchange 21/22 Argentina soybean conditions worse again 31% G-E (down 6), 46% fair (unchanged), 23% (up 6)

Thursday, February 17, 2022

Corn 19% G-E (down 9), 55% fair (up 8), 26% P-VP (up 1). Some rains in the forecast. If not, production falls further.

 

China trying to talk soybean market down saying demand can be lowered -30MMT thru lower meal rations in feed & using alternative proteins?

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

China imports ~100 MMT yearly! In 2021 they tried reducing soy meal & corn in feed to reduce import dependence but how well did that work?

 

Paraguay's crushing industry will run out of #soybeans by mid-2022 due to worst drought in decade? ~60% Y/Y production drop possible this year.....

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

.....vs. last year's 10 MMT. The 4th biggest exporter is looking to import for 1st time ever? (But from where?)

 

Brazil 21/22 soybean production private est. cut to new low 122MMT, down ~23 since start. Add Argentina down ~9 for total SA loss of ~32 (1.175bil bu)

Monday, February 14, 2022

.....with downward bias. Futures not yet factoring magnitude of drop with more price upside to follow? Next 30 days critical.

 

Soybean meal bounced with upside reversal trade of +$2.6. Top meal exporter Argentina's drought concerns continue

Friday, February 11, 2022

BAGE dropped 21/22 bean output by 2MMT to 42MMT with a downward bias? Rosario Exchange warned of 2018-style productive disaster without rains.

 

2021 US beef exports new record by steep margin, over $10 bil- 1st ever, pork export value also record above $8 bil- 1st ever.....

Thursday, February 10, 2022

.....(volume just below 2020 record) despite 30% drop in Chinese business, Latin American business record strong


usmef.org/news-statistic

 

2021 US Ag exports were highest ever! Department of Commerce final trade data shows it was $177 bil, exceeding 2020 by +18% & previous record.....

Wednesday, February 9, 2022

.....from 2014 by +14.6%. What does 2022 hold?

https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2022/02/08/american-agricultural-exports-shattered-records-2021#:~:text=The%20final%202021%20trade%20data,in%202014%2C%20by%2014.6%20percent

 

Western Canadian Drought eases some in Jan 2022- 61% Abnormally Dry (D0) or Moderate to Exceptional Drought (D1 - D4) including 95% of Ag land there..

Tuesday, February 8, 2022

.....vs. end-Dec 2021 @ 67% in D0-D4 & 98% Ag land. Some winter precip helping but is it enough?

 

Stats Canada report found grain stocks levels as of Dec. 31, 2021, below prior year and/or expected; the one exception was corn,.....

Tuesday, February 8, 2022

.....which is likely being 'preserved' by the rise of U.S. imports. Stats Can Dec 31 stocks of canola came in a 7.561 MMT compared to 7.5 MMT expected and 13.259 MMT a year ago. All wheat stocks were 15.564 MMT compared to 17.3 MMT expected and 24.028 MMT a year ago.

Canadian Quarterly Grain Stocks as of Dec. 31, 2021

(in MMT)

Stats Canada- Dec. 31, 2021

Trade Est.- Dec. 31, 2021

Stats Canada- Dec. 31, 2020

Y/Y Change

All Wheat

15.564

17.30

25.090

-37.97%

Durum

2.094

2.00

4.806

-56.43%

Canola

7.561

7.50

13.284

-43.08%

Barley

3.146

3.30

5.580

-43.62%

Oats

1.657

1.70

2.722

-39.13%

Corn

11.530

N/A

11.071

+4.15%

Soybeans

3.285

N/A

3.511

-6.44%

Peas

1.629

N/A

2.836

-42.56%

Flaxseed

0.260

N/A

0.377

-31.03%

Lentils

1.182

N/A

1.852

-36.18%

Rye

0.289

N/A

0.298

-3.02%

Source: Stats Canada, QTPlus

 

Stats Canada will release stocks of principal field crops on Feb 8th, for December 31, 2021. Trade estimate for canola stocks is 7.5 mmt, down.....

Monday, February 7, 2022

.....vs. 13.3 mmt prior year. All wheat 17.3 vs. 25.03 prior year.

 

Feb. 4, 2022- Hog futures contracts, from April to August, above $100/cwt, & October at $90/cwt for this time of the year is record high!

Friday, February 4, 2022

Summer peak expected to surpass 2014 record, & above $134/cwt?

 

Long-term cotton futures buy signal & upward sloping uptrend still intact, on strong demand. New crop above $103 is definitely buying acres.....

Thursday, February 3, 2022

.....in the very south of US?

 

WTI Crude oil tops $90/barrel- 1st time since 2014 as demand surges while supply remains constrained. If Russia invades Ukraine (end-Feb after.....

Thursday, February 3, 2022

.....Beijing Olympics?) in this inflation year (like 2008, when oil set record near $150) it could soar to new all-time highs?

 

Old crop soybeans break above $15.50/bu today & closed at new contract highs as the rally continues (albeit into overbought territory), & likely.....

Wednesday, February 2, 2022

.....gaining on corn in the US 2022 acreage mix (with fertilizer prices @ record highs). Chinese demand is back, with more to come?

 

Natural Gas futures supported by winter storm in east US & ahead of another deep freeze that causes supply tightening fears

Tuesday, February 1, 2022

Arctic blast could impact production when strong demand is expected. This will keep fertilizers prices elevated!

 

Private analysts reduced Brazil's 21/22 #soybean output by -20 MMT since start of season to ~125 MMT now, Argentina by -7 MMT to ~43 MMT

Monday, January 31, 2022

A drop of -27 MMT combined (or 0.992 bil bu), with a downward bias! Game Changer & very bullish US old/new crop export program!

 

Soybean futures extended rally into new contract highs for old & new crop on South American crop losses (which boosts US export demand) &.....

Friday, January 28, 2022

.....global veg oil strength (Malaysian Palm Oil +3.3% into new all-time high). March beans gained +22 cents & Nov +13.5 cents!

 

Russian ruble reacts to Russia-Ukraine issues. In 2014 (Feb-Mar) Crimea annexation, it fell first, recovered higher, & collapsed in 2nd half of year

Thursday, January 27, 2022

Global sanctions will weigh on economy & trade. Russia waiting to complete main event- Feb Winter Olympics?

 

Canadian farmers running out of cattle feed due to severe drought, now forcing Alberta feedlots to buy more US corn.

Wednesday, January 26, 2022

But Canadian Pacific Rail hit by frigid weather & truckers COVID-19 vaccine mandates will further disrupt supply chain.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadian-farmers-face-cattle-feed-shortage-due-drought-transport-strains-2022-01-25/

 

Continued global geopolitics & tensions, & higher interest rates could mean further stock market weakness, but this is a long-term buying opportunity!

Tuesday, January 25, 2022

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/25/long-term-investors-shouldnt-worry-too-much-about-stocks-being-10percent-off-their-highs.html

 

US 2021 meat sales 17-20% higher vs. pre COVID-19 year. Dec volume sales exceeded pre pandemic sales by +2%.....

Monday, January 24, 2022

Largest increase was in ground beef sales on tremendous demand, the highest in past 20 years & +8% higher vs. 20 years ago!

 

50% of truckers are COVID-19 unvaccinated & 70% of US-Canada business is done by land, but now truckers are required to get vaccinated.....

Friday, January 21, 2022

.....when travelling into Canada. We already have supply chain issues & this will make it even worse.

https://vancouversun.com/news/produce-prices-in-b-c-expected-to-rise-as-vaccine-mandate-for-truckers-takes-effect

 

US Drought Monitor map for the Midwest is starting off worse in 2022 than it did in 2012? La Nina could continue to have big say in crop expectations

Thursday, January 20, 2022

.....this year, with the crucial spring/summer season yet to come?

 

Agricorp Final ON 2021 corn @ 200 bpa & soybean @ 53 bpa- Both new records! Stats Canada @ 175.2 & 51.6 bpa. Great ON Yield Tour 2021 @ 191.5 & 52 bpa

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

ON Tour hosts Moe Agostino & Greg Stewart said it was a perfect storm with higher ear counts, rows around, length & higher kernel mass!

 

China's 2021 corn imports almost tripled Y/Y to new record @ 28.4 MMT, up +152% vs. 2020's record 11.3 MMT!

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Buyers turned to cheaper alternatives overseas amid soaring prices and a domestic supply crunch.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-grain-pork-sugar-imports-december-2022-01-18/

 

Argentina's soybean @ 31% G-E, 40% fair & 29% P-VP vs 48% G-E, 39% fair & 13% P-VP LW, corn 23% G-E, 41% fair, 36% P-VP vs LW 40% G-E,.....

Friday, January 14, 2022

.....39% fair, 21% P-VP, on excessive heat & dryness including S Brazil. Rosario Exchange est. drought will cost farmers ~$2.9 bil in lost income.

 

Although China fell ~40% short in their Phase 1 trade deal commitments, they are now asking the US to create conditions to expand trade cooperation

Thursday, January 13, 2022

China blamed adverse impacts of COVID-19 for the shortfall. Will this be the 2022 demand boost for commodities?

https://www.reuters.com/business/china-hopes-us-can-enable-more-trade-amid-phase-1-deal-uncertainties-2022-01-13/

 

NOAA- In 2021, there were 20 separate billion-dollar weather & #climate change disasters ($145 billion total in damage in US)

Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Dec. US temp was the highest on record at 39.3F, +6.7F above average! The disasters killed 688 people.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/11/weather-disasters-cost-145-billion-last-year-in-the-us-says-noaa.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail

 

Lumber futures exploded higher in 2021, then crashed by summer, but now back higher to new contract highs with nearby March hitting $1250.....

Tuesday, January 11, 2022

.....(2021 record was $1711.25)- demand remains strong as industry struggles with labor & continued global supply chain issues.

 

Happy 15th Birthday iPhone (Jan 9th)- celebrating global sales of over 2 billion units since 2007, Apple stock rose 34% in 2021.....

Monday, January 10, 2022

.....to take it to $3 trillion in market cap!

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/03/apple-becomes-first-us-company-to-reach-3-trillion-market-cap.html

 

Argentina 21/22 corn ratings cut in half in ~a month on drought. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange continues to drop weekly conditions.....

Friday, January 7, 2022

Corn current 40% G-E, 39% fair, 21% P-VP vs LW 58% G-E, 34% fair, 8% P-VP. Soybeans 48% G-E, 39% fair, 13% P-VP vs LW 56% G-E, 36% fair, 8% P-VP.

 

2022 June & July hog futures traded above $100/cwt, Aug close within $0.20- 1st time ever that summer futures (together) have traded this high.....

Thursday, January 6, 2022

.....this early! (exception- June 2014 futures traded $101/.20). On pace to break to new record above 2014's $133.9?

 

Apple’s valuation hit $1 trillion in 2018 & went from $2 trillion to $3 trillion in just 16 months!

Wednesday, January 5, 2022

Share price rose by ~5,800% since Steve Jobs unveiled the first iPhone in 2007! It is a big winner of COVID-19 lockdowns due to soaring consumer spending on gadgets.

 

US winter wheat conditions breakdown in key growing states, jeopardizing new crop supply? Kansas crop 33% G-E vs. 62% at end-Nov 2021 &.....

Tuesday, January 4, 2022

.....46% last Jan. USDA give first look at 22/23 US winter wheat acreage in Jan 12 WASDE, which is bound to move the market?

 

StoneX cut Brazil corn -2.5 to 117.5 MMT, soybeans to 134 MMT from 145.1- crop stress! CONAB @ 142.8 & USDA 144, both will be slow to cut?

Monday, January 3, 2022

Parana & RGDS make up 32% of soy, even cut by half its a potential loss of 20-23 MMT? Downward revisions just started?

 

March 2022 oats bounces from $6.50. Back to $7 before the holidays? Grain market momentum & N. American supply tightness continues

Wednesday, December 22, 2021

Canada will update stocks of principal field crops in Canada as of December 31, 2021, on February 8, 2022.

 

US HRW wheat country still very dry, intensified later this week by unseasonably warm temps, reaching 15-25 degrees above normal in some areas,.....

Tuesday, December 21, 2021

.....& some daily record highs challenged by Christmas eve? KC futures on course to test recent highs & break above $9/bu?

 

India tells commodity exchanges not to launch futures of soybean, soyoil, Palm Oil, wheat, rice, chickpea, green gram, canola & mustard for a year....

Monday, December 20, 2021

.....to control food inflation. This move is made at a time of record highs in producer prices.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-regulator-restricts-futures-trading-some-agri-commodities-2021-12-20/

 

After 2 years of waiting, US EPA finalized 2020, 2021 & 2022 ethanol blending mandate @ 12.5, 13.32 & 15 bil gal (back to RFS-minimum) respectively

Tuesday, December 7, 2021

They did not appear to reduce mandated volumes for biodiesel.

 

Trade expectations are for USDA to lower 21/22 US corn ending stocks in Dec WASDE but raise soybeans & wheat stocks

Friday, December 3, 2021

This will be a dud report, largely demand driven. For final production changes, will have to wait until the final Jan. 12 crop report.

 

Will Russia invade Ukraine? Military is ready- all contingencies to be prepared for! Ban on exports in '22 like in Aug '10–July '11 when.....

Thursday, December 2, 2021

.....prices tripled? '21 wheat prices up +73%, no new crop until May! Or like '08 inflation yr with $100 crude oil?

 

Soybean oil prices dropped sharply as crude oil price strength crumbled with Omicron COVID-19 news, but with 20 new biodiesel plants coming online....

Wednesday, December 1, 2021

.....in 2022, prices could stage a comeback. Unlike ethanol though, which is a law, biodiesel is voluntary!

 

Concerns over an global economic slow down from the new found omicron COVID virus battered commodities but it was also month end selling.....

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

.....and profit taking. Its noise long-term 22 bullish grain & livestock fundamentals remain intact.

 

KC HRW wheat into new contract highs, with $9/bu beckoning. Global values higher for 5th consecutive week on strong demand

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Also, dry conditions impacting US HRW wheat & too much rain in Australia delaying harvest & lowering quality (lower protein)?

 

US will make up to 50 mil barrels of Crude Oil available from the Strategic Reserve. Old news & priced in?

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Now that we tested old long term channel resistance at $74.48 (within 1%), we can resume WTI uptrend to new upside targets at $93.03 - $94.04/barrel?

 

New Chicago (SRW) & KC (HRW) wheat contract highs, highest since Dec 2012, on increasing concerns over recent rains on Australia's.....

Monday, November 22, 2021

.....harvest-ready wheat crop. Could further tighten high quality global wheat supplies?

 

Normal US Thanksgiving dinner cost rises +14% this year- largest increase in 31 years! Avg. cost $53.31 to feed 10 people, up vs.....

Friday, November 19, 2021

.....10-year lowest cost in 2020 at $46.90. 16-pound Turkey at $23.99, about $1.50/pound, up +24% Y/Y.

https://www.fb.org/newsroom/farm-bureau-survey-shows-thanksgiving-dinner-cost-up-14

 

Lean hog futures are slowly but surely recovering higher?

Thursday, November 18, 2021

ASF concerns in Europe/Asia continue. Despite thoughts that holidays will lead to hogs backing up on farms as processing speeds slow, this is not an ordinary year!

 

Canada's 22/23 wheat area expected to climb by +6% as high prices support. Spring wheat output expected to rise to ~22 MMT vs 15.32 this year.....

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

.....(lowest in ~2 decades) & 25.84 in 20/21. Durum up to 5.5 MMT vs 3.55 in 21/22 & 6.57 in 20/21.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/canada-wheat-area-set-to-rise-next-year-on-high-prices

 

IHS Markit is projecting too low on 2022 US cotton acres. If we add more to canola, sunflower, oats, barley, & sorghum, we.....

Tuesday, November 16, 2021

.....could see 5+ mil acres move away from corn & soybeans? We will take the under on the 178.719 mil corn+soy acres.

 

Matif wheat futures broke out to new all time highs last week, breaking the old record from March 2008!

Monday, November 15, 2021

With increased Russia/Ukraine tensions, wheat prices could build in further geo-political risk premium?

 

Bull market in soybean meal was missing for higher soybean futures during past 5 months! Today's trigger- a lysine shortage.....

Friday, November 12, 2021

.....that requires higher quantities of meal to be included in hog rations as a replacement?
Soybean futures are being short squeezed now?

 

KC wheat futures soar to new highs, strong uptrend since Aug '20 with $9/bu beckoning? Inflation trade benefits higher commodity prices.....

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Global demand continues to be strong- all trying to buy early? Paris wheat 14yr high (near record for Euronext), CBOT wheat 9yr high.

 

Global canola stocks lowered by USDA to 4.051 MMT- tightest in 18 years. Canadian exports are projected to be lowest since 2007/08, &.....

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

.....stocks are lowered again- AAFC is currently at 0.5 MMT- lowest in over 2 decades.

 

With wheat & corn taking the lead following previous USDA crop reports, it was soybeans turn today on the surprise lower 21/22 yield update.....

Tuesday, November 9, 2021

.....of 51.2 bpa. Stiff upside resistance exists, but this was a "reversal-type" start?

 

CFTC showed net managed money funds bought a big +79,770 wk/wk in corn to take net length to 325K- another attempt to break above record high 429K?

Monday, November 8, 2021

SRW wheat back to net long. Net buying across grains!

 

US August beef exports top $1 bil (132,577 MT +21% Y/Y & 2nd largest vol this year; #China demand surge).....

Friday, November 5, 2021

Pork remains on record pace (225,822 MT +4% Y/Y, value +20% to $633.9 mil; record exports to Mexico, Chinese variety meat demand).
usmef.org/news-statistic

 

Google invests $1 billion in CME Group to move exchanges to Google Cloud technology.....

Thursday, November 4, 2021

Partnership will enable CME to bring new products and services to market faster.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/google-strikes-deal-with-cme-as-exchange-moves-to-cloud-1.1676936

 

Soybean meal prices rose but vs. corn, they remain @ lowest since 2013

Wednesday, November 3, 2021

USDA reported US Sept meal stocks fell to 306,923 MT- tightest monthly since Jan 2020. Soy oil was leading the complex due to veg oil strength & biodiesel euphoria, now soy meal shows up?

 

Nearby old crop 21/22 oat futures power higher, breaking above $7.50 to new record high!

Monday, November 1, 2021

With demand still brisk & a pending Dec. 3 Stats Canada production report, it may take double digit futures to ration demand?

 

Olymel pork packing in Quebec reduces hog purchases by 10K/wk from Ontario & 15K from Quebec, due to labour shortage at the plant.....

Friday, October 29, 2021

.....If situation improves this tightening may be pulled back? They said Princeville plant is not closing.
https://www.swineweb.com/olymel-wants-to-limit-the-impact-of-its-restructuring-on-quebec-pork-producers/

 

Following $7/bu oats lead earlier this month, Prairie crop canola breaks above $1000/MT for only the 2nd time.....

Thursday, October 28, 2021

....., making a go for record high near $1045.3, as nearby futures expire trading to $1037/MT! Corn & soybeans are watching?

 

Inflation trade like in 2007/08 may be behind the rally in the grains complex?

Wednesday, October 27, 2021

Inflation is likely to stay with us well into 2022, fueled by soaring energy prices which are in part fueling higher commodity prices.

 

$7/bu oats! It really does know something!.....

Tuesday, October 26, 2021

Unprecedented spike in the Prairie crop's prices coincide with soaring values of fellow crops canola, spring wheat & barley as well- drought has sucked out inventories, leaving the 2022 outlook very bleak indeed?

 

100,000 U.S. workers take action as ‘Striketober’ hits US. As part of total, there are 10,000 unionized Deere employees that walked off job last week

Thursday, October 21, 2021

The largest private sector strike since 2019! This will add to shortages caused by COVID-19 in tractors, combines & parts.

 

Since Covid-19 low last year, Baltic Dry lndex ~11 times higher. & shipping rates may not ease until at least 2nd half 2022?

Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Instead of costing normal $1.22/bu to ship wheat/soybeans from Gulf to Japan, it now costs $2.23 (+$1 to end user).

 

Since Covid-19 low last year, Baltic Dry lndex ~11 times higher. & shipping rates may not ease until at least 2nd half 2022?

Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Instead of costing normal $1.22/bu to ship wheat/soybeans from Gulf to Japan, it now costs $2.23 (+$1 to end user).

 

Markit Agribusiness (formerly Informa) survey projecting flat 2022 U.S. soybean acres vs. 2021 and .....

Tuesday, October 19, 2021

.....a loss of 0.93 mil acres on corn vs. 21 to 92.4 million acres.

 

Oats led grains as it resumed climb to $7/bu!

Friday, October 15, 2021

Late week grain market recovery saw gains across the board (corn, soys, wheat, canola, cotton) as demand took over.

 

Brazil reported another Classical Swine Fever (CSF) outbreak in Marco, Ceará state

Thursday, October 14, 2021

 Ministry of Ag notified World Organization for Animal Health, which released an official bulletin.
https://www.pigprogress.net/Health/Articles/2021/10/CSF-Brazil-Outbreak-outside-free-zone-in-Ceara-805383E/

 

Lumber prices are making a recovery following from their corrective action earlier in the year

Wednesday, October 13, 2021

Up +64% since the August low as demand takes over again. Expect strength to continue into 2022?

 

Stock market recovery & weaker US$ bode well for beef demand & cattle markets

Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Beef cutouts yet to make a full recovery

 

Nov WTI crude oil futures broke above $80 today & nearby is trading at its highest since Nov 2014

Friday, October 8, 2021

Prices up 60+% for 2021 as demand rebounds while supply remains tight, with more legs to go.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/us-crude-oil-price-tops-80-a-barrel-the-highest-since-2014.html

 

Malaysian Palm Oil futures continue journey thru uncharted highs above 5,000. Higher crude oil, tightening Sept stocks,.....

Thursday, October 7, 2021

.....slow production & strong demand support. China major buyer.

 

If 21/22 Canadian canola output falls below 12.8 MMT, prices will climb to ration further demand and buy acres in 2022?

Wednesday, October 6, 2021

Canada’s smallest harvest this in 13 years due to severe drought!
Canola
 record still @ $1,045.30/MT set by May 2021 futures near its expiry, on May 7, 2021.

 

USDA announced a candidate vaccine, ASFV-G-DI177l which efficiently protects against ASF!

Tuesday, October 5, 2021

It has been shown to prevent & effectively protect both European & Asia bred swine against the virus. USDA’s ARS reports that it is effective in all swine by 4th week after vaccination.

https://www.newsdakota.com/2021/10/01/usda-announces-asf-vaccine-candidate/

 

As suspected, the month of August in Ontario & the finish to a record corn crop 191.50 was dry, especially in Eastern Ontario!

Tuesday, October 5, 2021

Learn more @ https://www.weatherinnovations.com/ - Platinum sponsor 2021 Great ON Yield Tour

 

Oat Futures Trade to New all time Record Highs!

Monday, October 4, 2021

Nearby oat futures traded to an new all-time record high breaking the old high set in 2013 at $6.00/bu.

 

Continued strong pork cutout values support futures- $116/cwt yesterday is higher Y/Y by $20 & higher vs 5-yr avg by +$36/cwt!

Friday, October 1, 2021

Bacon has skyrocketed! US bacon now $7.1/pound vs $5.56 a year ago, +27.7%! A good time to stock up on bacon? Its always a good time!

 

2021 USDA September 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report bearish corn and soybeans vs. expectations friendly/bullish wheat

Thursday, September 30, 2021

U.S. corn Sept. 2021 stocks down -36% Y/Y; 20/21 soybeans down -51%, and all U.S. wheat down -34%.

 

Cotton futures soar to highest in decade, breaking above $1/pound!

Wednesday, September 29, 2021

Adverse weather & shipping snags threaten supplies!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-28/cotton-prices-near-decade-high-signal-jeans-could-get-pricey

 

Bullish USDA Sept. 2021 quarterly Hogs & Pigs report!

Friday, September 24, 2021

Lower than expected inventory! Futures supported near-term! Smaller pig crop during fall? Tight supplies likely continue into 2022...

USDA Sept. 1 2021, Hogs & Pigs Report (% vs. Year Ago)

(% VS. YEAR AGO)

SEPT. 1 HOGS & PIGS FINAL

SEPT. 1 AVERAGE ESTIMATES

JUNE 1 HOGS & PIGS FINAL

ALL HOGS INVENTORY

96%

98.3%

98%

KEPT FOR BREEDING

98%

98.9%

98%

KEPT FOR MARKETING

96%

98.2%

98%

JUN - AUG PIG CROP

94%

96.6%

N/A

JUN - AUG PIGS/LITTER

101%

100.4%

N/A

JUN - AUG FARROWING

93%

96.3%

N/A

SEPT - NOV FARROWING INTENTIONS

96%

98.6%

98%

DEC - FEB FARROWING INTENTIONS

101%

99.9%

N/A

HOGS UNDER 50 LBS

94%

98.3%

97%

HOGS 50-119 LBS

94%

98.3%

97%

HOGS 120-179 LBS

99%

98.1%

98%

HOGS OVER 180 LBS

99%

98%

98%

Source: USDA, Reuters

 

2021 Sept. USDA Cattle on Feed numbers slightly higher than expected

Friday, September 24, 2021

Sept. 1 2021 USDA Cattle on Feed Report Estimates

(% of previous year)

USDA Sept. 1, 2021

Sept. 1, 2021 Pre-Report Estimates

USDA Aug. 1, 2021

Cattle on Feed

99%

98%

98%

Placements

102%

99%

92%

Marketings

100%

100%

95%

Source: USDA, www.qtmarketcenter.com

 

September 2021 USDA Cold Storage report showed significantly lower meat supply in cold storage Y/Y

Thursday, September 23, 2021

USDA SEPT. 2021 COLD STORAGE REPORT

(in Million Pounds)

USDA- Aug. 31, 2021

Last Month

Last Year

PORK STOCKS

460.059

442.390

464.919

PORK BELLIES

17.469

27.722

31.053

BEEF STOCKS

414.935

400.814

449.336

CHICKEN STOCKS

708.022

730.905

883.538

Source: USDA

 

Oats knows? Dec futures traded limit up near $5.60/bu! Will corn follow higher?

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

For this year, Stats Canada estimates the smallest Canadian oat crop production since 2010 & tightest supplies since 1991/92. Canadian stocks are expected to be record low in 2021/22? US 2021/22 oats stocks are the lowest since 2013/14.

 

World Organization for Animal Health says Haiti has 1st outbreak of ASF in 37 years!

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

This is the 2nd detection in Americas this year, following from the 1st in the Dominican Republic. Both countries share the same island in the Caribbean.

https://www.pigprogress.net/Health/Articles/2021/9/ASF-Haiti-Virus-moves-to-second-country-in-Americas-795740E/

 

Grain market fundamentals overshadowed by macro market fears over China's real estate sector crisis

Monday, September 20, 2021

Markets are nervous over the potential failure of China's Evergrande Group, a property developer with over $300 billion in debt, who has defaulted on a debt payment creating fears of contagion in the broader property sector unless the Chinese government steps in. Global financial and commodity markets sold off as traders exit riskier investments to get to the sidelines. Reading into its most recent financial results, Evergrande’s total debt burden is the biggest for any publicly traded real-estate management or development company in the world.

 

USDA 2021 September Crop Report Worse than Expected but all priced in?

Friday, September 10, 2021

21/22 USDA SEPTEMBER WASDE REPORT ESTIMATES SEPT. 10, 2021 

(in Bil Bu)

USDA

SEPT

SEPT.

PRE-REPORT

AUGUST

USDA

Corn

Yield (bpa)

176.3

175.8

174.6

 

Harvested Acres (Mil/Acres)

85.1

85.1

84.5

 

Production (bbu)

14.996

14.94

14.75

 

Ending Stocks (bbu

1.408

1.380

1.242

 

Global Ending Stocks (MMT)

286.48

286.00

284.6

 

Soybeans

Yield (bpa)

50.6

50.4

50

 

Harvested Acres (Mil/Acres)

86.4

86.7

86.7

 

Production (bbu)

4.374

4.38

4.32

 

Ending Stocks (bbu

0.185

0.190

0.155

 

Global Ending Stocks (MMT)

98.89

96.90

96.190

 

Wheat

Ending Stocks (bbu

0.615

0.616

0.627

 

Global Ending Stocks (MMT)

283.22

279.00

279.1

 

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters

 

FINAL YIELDS- 2021 6th Great ON Yield Tour @ 191.5 bpa corn 51.7 bpa soybeans

Thursday, September 2, 2021

It’s a new ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH for the 2021 Ontario corn yield at 191.50 bu/acre, but soybeans comes up short at 51.7 bpa. This compares the the 2018 previous high by Agricorp at 183 & 53 respectively. The 10-year average sits at 174 & 46. #TwitterlessGregStewart says “There’s no stopping a record corn crop.” #ONYield21 @Ontag @FarmsNews Thank you all hosts, sponsors, scouts and farmers!

 

Trade Expectations for Stats Canada 2021 Production report on Aug 30th- canola 14.1 MMT vs 19.89 in previous est. All wheat 22.6 MMT vs 31.43 last....

Wednesday, August 25, 2021

Spring wheat 15.9 MMT; Durum 4.1 MMT vs 5.84 last. oats 3 MMT vs 3.794 last. barley 7.4 MMT vs 10.891 last.
The data will be released at 7:30 am CT/8:30 am EDT Monday, Aug 30th.

 

2021 USDA August Crop Report A Bullish Surprise!

Thursday, August 12, 2021

2021 USDA AUGUST WASDE 20/21 & 21/22 U.S. CROP ESTIMATES (Bil Bu)

(in Bil Bu) USDA AUGUST EST. AUG TRADE AVERAGE EST. USDA JULY EST.
Corn 21/22 Yield (bpa) 174.6 177.6 179.5
21/22 Production 14.75 15.0 15.165
21/22 Ending Stocks 1.242 1.30 1.432
20/21 Ending Stocks 1.117 1.10 1.082
Soybeans 21/22 Yield (bpa) 50.0 50.4 50.8
21/22 Production 4.339 4.375 4.405
21/22 Ending Stocks 0.155 0.160 0.155
20/21 Ending Stocks 0.160 0.148 0.135
Wheat 21/22 Ending Stocks 0.627 0.645 0.665

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters

 

IHS Markit group projected 2021 US corn production at 14.91 billion bushels and 2021 soybean production at 4.464 billion bushels;.....

Saturday, August 7, 2021

.....yields for corn are expected at 176.5 bpa, while soy yields are expected at 51.5 bpa. Yesterday, Linn & Associates estimated 2021 U.S. corn production at 14.794 billion bushels, on a yield of 176.16 bpa, & soybean production at 4.284 billion bushels, on a yield of 49.5 bpa.

 

The Dominican Republic is restricting pig shipments and mobilizing the military to contain the spread of ASF.....

Friday, July 30, 2021

..... US & Mexico tightened border checks to avoid infections. U.S. testing of 389 samples from Dominican hogs raised on farms and in backyards indicate the contagious disease is in "a small population of backyard pigs from Sánchez Ramírez and Montecristi provinces".

 

USDA corn, soybeans & spring wheat (at 9% G-E) ratings drop again, lower-than-expected. Near-term, extreme heat & wind will further damage.....

Tuesday, July 27, 2021

.....already-stressed crops in dry areas of NW Corn Belt! Some weekend rain expected but with limited coverage?

 

Oats knows? Oats futures are a star performer among grains. Higher oat futures (+26.7% in July) could be a sign of higher corn futures down the road?

Friday, July 23, 2021

As oats are harvested earlier than most (mid-August), it will give markets a good idea on yield loss from hot & dry weather?

 

Flooding in China impacting 91,000 sq miles of important Ag region in Yellow River Basin

Thursday, July 22, 2021

Rain extremes since Friday reached 40 - 45+ inches! Significant crop losses possible as fertile plain may not drain very quickly.

 

US administration delays annual US biofuel blending mandate due to political concerns

Wednesday, July 21, 2021

White House has mostly stayed out of discussions but now wants to take control of matter? Mandate is more than a year behind!
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exclusive-white-house-delays-biofuel-mandates-due-political-concerns-sources-2021-07-20/

 

Despite China's efforts to control ASF in pigs, & reporting that hog supply is back to pre-ASF levels, 11 outbreaks were officially reported in 2021 &

Tuesday, July 20, 2021

.....new variants of virus also present. China's pork imports to remain buoyant in 2021?
https://www.thepigsite.com/news/2021/07/chinas-ag-ministry-confirms-11-asf-outbreaks-in-latest-statement

 

US spring wheat in dire state- USDA conditions drop again wk/wk -5 points to 11% G-E! Conditions as of late-May were only at 43% G-E but.....

Monday, July 19, 2021

.....dropped -32 points in June & July so far. There is no respite as near-term weather forecast is 'hot & dry'!

 

U.S. Weekly Ag Exports Were Nothing Special

Thursday, July 15, 2021

USDA weekly Ag export sales were again not expected to be very impressive, and they were not with sales other than wheat came in on the lower end or missing their range expectations.

 

USDA Crop Progress 11 July 2021- Corn conditions improved+1% to 65% G-E but soybeans & spring wheat remain unchanged at 59% and 16%, respectively.....

Tuesday, July 13, 2021

Winter wheat harvest is 59% complete, which is a bit behind average. With harvest as advanced as it is, there will be no more condition reports for Winter wheat. Corn and soy development is similar to a year ago.

 

Friendly 2021 July USDA WASDE Crop Report- Bullish Wheat!

Monday, July 12, 2021

The market reacted positively to the report which didn’t do any damage to crop expectations & closed the day with new crop corn up +16 cents, new crop soybeans up +21 cents (soy meal & oil also strong), Sept. Chicago SRW wheat up +25 cents, KC HRW wheat +21 cents, MN Spring wheat +43 cents (breaking above resistance at $8.50/bu), & canola started the day limit up for the 2nd consecutive day at expanded limit of $45/MT & stayed there.

 

Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his U.S. corn yield estimate by -2 bpa to 175.5 bpa this week. He also lowered his U.S. soybean yield..

Wednesday, July 7, 2021

.....projection to 50 bpa. He lowered his Brazilian corn crop estimate another 2 MMT to 88 MMT and the bias is lower going forward.

 

Frosts caused crop failure in Brazil & output estimates are slashed. AgRural cut 2nd corn production forecast in Center South to 54.6 MMT, down.....

Tuesday, July 6, 2021

.....from 60 MMT estimated in May. They also said harvesting is lagging last year's pace as Brazilian 2nd corn was planted later than in the previous season. Brazil corn production down another 5 mmt from their May estimate to 85.3 mmt full year.

 

BULLISH USDA June Acreage & Grain Stocks data sent new crop Dec corn futures limit up to $5.885/bu today (expanded $0.60 limit tomorrow).....

Wednesday, June 30, 2021

Nov soybeans futures had a $12, $13 & $14 handle today which is a first (up +$0.865/bu on the day).

 

Stats Canada's June Acreage showed canola acreage up 1mil vs. March but closer to trade expectations. All wheat acreage slightly higher but Durum,....

Tuesday, June 29, 2021

.....barley, soybeans, corn, oats all lower vs March! Western Prairie crops are cooking in 50C heat with no rain in 2-week forecast?

 

USDA US crop conditions deteriorated further. Spring wheat on its last lifeline! corn & winter wheat G-E dropped a point lower. Soys unchanged for now

Monday, June 28, 2021

This was despite last week seeing some precip in some parts. West/North West remains dry, East wet!

 

Will Stats Canada surprise next Tuesday?

Friday, June 25, 2021

We are taking the under on canola and wheat acres and the over on barley and oats based on farmer reports from across the Western Canadian Prairies.

 

US Supreme Court in favour of oil refineries in biofuel waiver dispute. This is a setback for ethanol & not what the industry expected...

Friday, June 25, 2021

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-supreme-court-backs-refineries-biofuel-waiver-dispute-2021-06-25/

 

Heat Dome forecasted for US PNW, BC & Alberta. 113+F heat possible? Conditions could persist until end of next week (& longer?) &.....

Thursday, June 24, 2021

.....expand east to Idaho & Montana, & south into California. Likely first of many to come this summer with enduring drought?

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/heat-dome-inflates-over-western-canada-the-harbinger-of-all-time-warmth

 

North Dakota has planted the 4th most soybean acres in 2021 and history shows when crop ratings are @ 60% G-E (+/-3%) soybean yields are sub-trendline

Tuesday, June 22, 2021

The #1 producer Iowa lost the most in corn ratings this week.

 

Corn & Soybeans recover some after last week's funds sell-off. Despite less threatening weather, hot & dry continues to be the summer theme.....

Monday, June 21, 2021

.....as evidenced by quickly deteriorating USDA crop conditions. #1 producer IA, #3 MN & #4 NE crop conditions = an under on 179.5 corn yield.

 

USDA Crop Progress Report worse than expected for corn and spring wheat crop conditions vs. expectations

Monday, June 21, 2021

This report should be friendly grain futures short-term.

 

US Drought Monitor shows significant expansion in corn, soybeans & wheat areas vs early 2021, cattle & cotton regions improved. Drought.....

Friday, June 18, 2021

.....this year is unlikely to get resolved by one or two rain events. We revert to hot & dry after upcoming cool & (slightly) wet?

 

Commodity sell-off day triggered by China's plans to release reserves of key metals (copper, aluminum, etc) & its crackdown against commodity.....

Thursday, June 17, 2021

.....& hoarders. Soaring US$ didn't help either. More volatility on the way?

 

Where soyoil futures go so does soybean futures on rumors of a possible policy shift by the Biden administration surrounding renewable fuel blending..

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

.....requirements, Its spooking the veg oil markets after hitting record highs last week!

 

USDA- Biden plans $700 mil aid for biofuel producers in new round of COVID-19 relief

Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Relief also expected for timber haulers, dairy farmers & food suppliers. Rumors EPA expected on Thursday to announce lower RVOs @ 14 – 14.50 bil vs the promised 15 bil?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biofuels-usda/usda-grants-biofuel-producers-700-million-in-covid-19-aid-idUSKCN2DR21D

 

USDA 2021 corn & soybeans crop conditions wk/wk drop paralleled by 2012. '21 corn fell -8% G-E to 68% since the 1st condition report.....

Monday, June 14, 2021

.....(2012 fell -9%). '21 soys fell -5% G-E wk/wk to 62% (2012 fell -4%). Some weather respite in the short-term, but main theme is still hot & dry.

 

Drought in May in parts of Canadian Prairies (central Alberta & east along Alberta-Saskatchewan border) improved with some precip,.....

Thursday, June 10, 2021

.....while in other areas (Manitoba, US-Manitoba border, US-Saskatchewan border) it worsened (as in ON/QC too).
https://www.agr.gc.ca/eng/agriculture-and-the-environment/drought-watch-and-agroclimate/canadian-drought-monitor/?id=1463575104513

 

Rain in ND hit mostly pastureland & mid-day weather models reduced moisture in N Plains tomorrow thru Saturday, but increased the amounts for.....

Wednesday, June 9, 2021

.....Canadian Prairies. 7–10-day forecast remains hot & dry! 1-2 rain events will not fix serious N Plains drought.

 

US federal judge could decide this Wednesday if pork production line speeds will slow down or stay same? Judge ruled in April that USDA broke the law

Tuesday, June 8, 2021

.....with faster line speeds but processors requested stay as plants are running at faster speeds for decades.
https://www.rfdtv.com/story/44047142/a-decision-on-pork-line-speeds-will-be-made-this-week

 

Hog futures up +30% in past 90 days! It is the 2nd highest price level in past 50 years. Record high was in summer of 2014 when PED outbreak hit.....

Monday, June 7, 2021

.....the market. Hog prices are more than triple where they were in 2020 when COVID-19 forced plants to drastically reduce slaughter rates.

 

USDA pork cutouts are less than $5 away from 2014 PEDv highs of $137.56! Summer grilling demand roars on, & cyberattack temporarily jeopardized.....

Friday, June 4, 2021

.....supply. The soaring cutout will keep the path of least resistance in cash and futures higher.

 

Brazil's drought is not just cutting down crops but its worst water crisis could curtail river transportation of commodities & further tighten supply

Thursday, June 3, 2021

.....as they aim to save water & direct it to power generation.
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/worst-drought-in-91-years-turns-brazil-into-hot-spot-for-lng

 

USDA's 1st 2021 corn ratings off to 4th highest start ever @ 76% G-E. In 2012, the corresponding week's ratings were 72%, but eventually that fell....

Wednesday, June 2, 2021

.....to 22% as of 10 Sept 2012. We are yet to face the dog days of summer & NOAA has started forecasting 'hot & dry'.

 

World's largest meat packer (Brazil's) JBS SA's operations in US, Canada & Australia were shut down on Monday by an organised cyber attack.....

Tuesday, June 1, 2021

.....on its information systems. Others beware, more shut downs could squeeze supply?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jbs-meat-cyberattack-1.6048942

 

2021 US drought in North & West Midwest is yet to be factored into corn & soybeans yields? Some regions there have had the driest stretch ever with...

Friday, May 28, 2021

.....2/3 of western ND in extreme drought (worse than 1930s?)! Region needs 8-9 inches of moisture just to catch up.

 

Old crop July corn futures closed limit up today, new crop Dec not far off as grains put in a bottom after May meltdown, on new buying- .....

Thursday, May 27, 2021

.....technicals, short covering & export demand. $6.70 is major resistance & corn traded only 10 days above it in past 8 years!

 

Demand is king! USDA pork cutout values broke above last year's COVID-19 highs this week. Only 2014 PEDv record highs trump current levels!

Tuesday, May 25, 2021

.....As summer grilling picks up steam, there just isn't enough slack and demand is not taking it easy, chasing product.

 

Ontario is Dry as we near the completion of the 2021 Planting Season!

Friday, May 21, 2021

All farmers are singing the same song including #Ontario producers. % of normal precip is behind and soil moisture needs to catch up. Maybe its time for a rain dance. The 89 Year Drought Cycle maybe here sooner than we thought?

 

Brazil's 20/21 corn crop est continues to be lowered- Crop scout Cordonnier lowest yet @ 85 MMT, USDA @ 102 mmt (109 in April), .....

Thursday, May 20, 2021

..... AgroConsult @ 91.1. If the Argentina crop is also lowered -5 MMT, the total could be off Y/Y by -26 MMT!

 

Line 5 brings 540K bpd of crude oil from western Canada to Ontario, Quebec, Ohio, Michigan & Indiana. Fuel tightness looming there?

Tuesday, May 11, 2021

Canada's Enbridge & US state of Michigan in talks, but they are running out of time as Line 5 shutdown deadline is May 12!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-amicus-brief-line-5-1.6022141

 

South American 20/21 corn output in jeopardy as world's No.2 (Brazil) & No.3 (Argentina) suppliers face reduced crops? BAGE est @ 46 MMT.....

Monday, May 10, 2021

.....(USDA @ 47). AgRural projects Brazil could drop below 100 to 95.5 MMT (USDA @ 109)? Combined would be tightest in 4 years, or worse?

 

Red hot veg oil demand continues as palm oil futures soared & gapped higher with new all-time highs! For its part, nearby canola futures extended.....

Friday, May 7, 2021

.....into all-time highs as drought in Canadian Prairies remains firmly entrenched as planting gathers steam

 

Canola rallies into new highs & expiring May futures broke above $1,000, with July close behind at $963! New crop Nov at $761. Drought still.....

Thursday, May 6, 2021

.....a major concern for central Sask, east-central Alberta, & central & southern Manitoba. No rain in immediate forecast

 

As feed grain prices soar along with strong animal feed demand, insect feed is gaining share in ag, as firms attempt to curb their carbon footprint

Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Cargill & InnovaFeed are working towards feeding 20 mil piglets with insect oil by 2026
https://www.feednavigator.com/Article/2021/05/04/Cargill-and-InnovaFeed-look-beyond-fish-feed-for-insect-products

 

July canola futures rose to a contract high of $894 today, with the expiring May contract staying in the unheard-of $900s! New crop Nov futures also..

Tuesday, May 4, 2021

.....at contract high $730.5 as tight market fundamentals signal a quite "heady" summer for veg oil/oilseed prices?

 

2 of 5 US adults fully vaccinated as daily avg of new COVID-19 cases fall below 50,000! 70-85% of country needs to be immune to virus,.....

Monday, May 3, 2021

.....thru vaccine or prev infection to control spread. Experts warn US vaccine supply will surpass demand?
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/experts-warn-u-s-covid-19-vaccine-supply-will-soon-surpass-demand-1.5410493

 

April ended with a BANG for corn, soybeans, wheat, #anola, #oats, cotton. With daily CME trading limits raised on May 3rd & .....

Friday, April 30, 2021

.....weekend Brazilian weather forecast, we could have another wild week coming up?

 

US Wheat Associates- Dry bulk freights are rising on strong global demand as the world tries to recover from COVID-19. China leads commodities demand

Thursday, April 29, 2021

.....& US President Biden's infrastructure plans also a catalyst. Higher freight demand point to optimistic 2021 outlook

 

Since the low in April March last year, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&P GSCI) rallied 110+%, which is very comparable to the 07/08 advance.....

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/commodities/sp-gsci/#overview

 

2021 Stats Canada acreage report- not enough acres to fix tight new crop canola balance-sheet. Also surprised with less wheat acres vs expectations

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Pending drought & soil moisture deficits an issue! If it does not rain enough soon, we could lose more acres?

 

Nearby corn futures traded limit-up! July broke above $6.5/bu, up more than $1 since late March! Midwest cropping outlook continually far from ideal

Monday, April 26, 2021

Inflation fears stoked! Mainstream media, besides Ag media, is paying attention.

 

Soaring soy oil futures, to levels higher than the 2010-12 high, lead veg oil (including canola & palm oil) rally, & supports soy futures

Friday, April 23, 2021

Biodiesel demand for soyoil feedstock is primary catalyst. Higher veg oil prices is spurring food inflation.

 

Nearby May & July soybean futures have topped $15/bu for the first time since June of 2014. New crop November soybean futures also hit new highs.....

Thursday, April 22, 2021

.....as well at $13.466/bu! Grain futures appear to be making another push higher to ration demand!

 

Lumber futures up +446% since COVID-19 lows! A very good barometer of global economic activity! But where timber supplies/logs are plentiful,.....

Wednesday, April 21, 2021

.....prices are still cheap- like Louisiana. As capacity increases, futures should eventually fall back to Earth.
 
bloomberg.com/news/articles/

 

New crop 21/22 soybean Nov futures broke into "beans in the teens" today & closed at new contract high $12.995/bu! Soy planting debuted @ 3% vs.....

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

.....1% avg & 2% last year. Will US farmers push the easy button & plant more soy acres as cold temps delay fast start to corn planting?

 

US Midwest latest deep freeze is worst ever for April & will hit 12 states starting tonight & push South to Texas? Could damage early-planted corn &..

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

.....soybean emergence & wheat. '97 had wet recovery & record wheat but '21 could be hot/dry- worse case for recovering wheat?

 

After worst quarter in 4 years, gold futures had the best week in 4 months (+2%), rising on lower US$ & bond yields.....

Friday, April 16, 2021

Also China gave banks permission to import large amount of bullion to meet domestic demand. ~150 MT likely to be shipped in coming months?
cnbc.com/2021/04/16/gol

 

Canola futures closed at its highest weekly close ever! Malaysian Palm Oil futures also closed the week near record highs. Veg oil tightness continues

Friday, April 16, 2021

.....to support prices, & persisting dry conditions across most of the Prairies could propel values higher?

 

Nearby May Corn Futures Hit $6 overnight! - first since mid-2013...

Thursday, April 15, 2021

$6 corn is official!

Futures have been propelled by tighter U.S. 20/21 old crop ending stocks, strong export demand, recovering ethanol demand, concerns over a Brazilian 20/21 safrinha second corn crop (yield estimates are already being chalked down due to delayed planting and moisture deficit risk for the developing crop), not enough U.S .2021 corn acres, and a slower start to North American planting season (due to persistent cold weather and a pending drought). All these factors are creating a “perfect storm” and adding a risk premium to ration demand. 

Weekly USDA today exports are disappointing and will weigh on futures this morning. But breaking above the crucial $6 mark has signaled the market's bullish intent, as the variable North American growing season is just kicking into gear!

 

IMEA drops corn yield est in Brazil's biggest safrinha producing state Mato Grosso to ~97.7 bpa, off -3.56% Y/Y. 45% crop was planted after ideal.....

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

.....window on Feb 28 due to late soybean planting. More moisture deficits will weigh! Corn futures trade to new contract highs.

 

China imported record 1.02 MMT of meat in March on supply concerns, as ASF still haunts hog herds in world’s biggest pork consumer &.....

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

.....they continued to import to fill shortages. Trade is most bullish on lean hogs since late 2017.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/

 

US recommends pause of single-dose Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine to investigate reports of blood clots. Canada is expecting 10 mil doses.....

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

.....starting April & is monitoring situation- suspension will slow vaccination? Markets weren't alarmed by the news.

 

US stock markets soared! Dow Index rose +300 points to new record highs, +86% since March 2020 COVID-19 low, gained 2% weekly!

Friday, April 9, 2021

Bond yields eased off from recent inflation-expected climb. Producer prices rose more than expected in March & had the largest annual gain in 9+ years.

 

USDA 2021 April Crop Report Mixed Friendly Corn and Wheat but Disappointing Soybeans

Friday, April 9, 2021

U.S. corn stocks came in lower than expected with $5.00/bu Dec corn futures, while wheat comes in slightly higher. Soybeans are unchanged from March a real disappointment (USDA needs to tell markets that the U.S. is running out of old crop 20/21 U.S. soybeans and once again they have kicked the can down the road). USDA however did surprise with an increase in U.S. corn feed usage and ethanol up 35 and 2 million bushels respectively. Exports were increased 75 million bushels slightly lower than expectations for 100.

World corn stocks came in a bit lower than expected soybeans much higher (lower use in China). Wheat came in much lower than expected as USDA increased China's wheat feeding yet again.

China's 20/21 imports of soybeans were unchanged at 100 mmt, but USDA has them crushing 2 mmt less than before, adding it to carryout. China's wheat imports stay at 10.5 mmt and corn at 24 mmt.

USDA increased Brazil's output of soybeans to a record 136 mmt from 134 mmt last month but leaves the corn crop unch. (CONAB at 137 and 105 respectively) Argentina's soybeans were also unchanged but corn came down by 0.5 mmt.

 

Study (in 9 states from Oregon to New Mexico) says Megadrought (intense droughts that last for decades) emerging in western US.

Thursday, April 8, 2021

Nearly-20-year drought could be worse than any in past 1,200 years. First observed multidecadal megadrought in recorded history.

 

US is at 150 mil COVID-19 vaccinations- almost half way there! Impressive! IMF says vaccines are the main weapon’ to achieve faster economic recovery

Thursday, April 8, 2021

US Fed FOMC minutes reflect optimism over economic revival, while continuing supportive measures.

 

Sri Lanka bans imports of Palm Oil & new palm plantations- producers to uproot existing plantations in phases, due to environmental concerns.....

Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Similar concerns were raised earlier for Malaysia/Indonesia. Curbs on plantations tighten global palm oil supply.

https://www.reuters.com/article/sri-lanka-palmoil-imports/sri-lanka-bans-palm-oil-imports-tells-producers-to-uproot-plantations-idUSL1N2LY10W

 

Crude Oil futures fell 5+% as OPEC+ shocks market by agreeing to ease output cuts by 2 mbpd during May-July 2021 (from 7.2 mbpd), restoring.....

Monday, April 5, 2021

.....5% of supplies. Iran, exempt from making voluntary cuts, is also boosting supply. With oil @ $60+/barrel, this was imminent?

 

Trade is throwing around 3-3.5 million unaccounted U.S. acres from USDA March 1 Planting Intentions Report. But if past performance.....

Thursday, April 1, 2021

.....over 10 years according to the USDA is any indication the difference from March to June is only +/-0.005% unless its a planting problem year?

 

USDA 2021 March 1 Stocks and Planting Intentions Report Very, Very Bullish limit up across the board!

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

New contract highs for May corn futures but limit up 25 cents across the board until July of 2022. New contract highs for July 2021 soybean futures and limit up 70 cents across the board thru July of 2022. We have expanded limits on corn tomorrow at $0.40/bu and soybeans at $1.05/bu.

March 1 corn stocks come in slightly below expectations while those for soybeans just a bit above. Wheat stocks came in higher than the trade guess.

All U.S. wheat plantings come in notably larger than trade estimates at 46.358 million acres vs. expected at 44.971, and that was driven by a 1.1 million-acre increase in winter wheat area over the January seedings report. Spring wheat (which was expected to steal acres from corn and soy) comes in just above expectations.

Nothing surprising in the cotton and small grains area. Cotton comes in a hair above expectations at 12.036 million, as does sorghum at 6.940 million acres. Oats and barley a bit lower than analysts thought.

U.S. corn plantings drop well below trade expectations, as do those for soybeans. Area for corn and soybeans is pegged at 178.7 million acres, below the trade expectation for 183.2 million and USDA's outlook of 182 million. That will fall below 2017's record of 180.3 million. If we add the increase in cotton, spring wheat and sorghum acres the total is 1.366 less the 4.5 million acres from pre-report guesses and there are 3.134 million acres that went somewhere else? Maybe canola, sunflower or potatoes?

 

US winter wheat conditions did not improve as much as expected wk/wk despite recent rains. SRW wheat conditions did improve & weighed on wheat futures

Tuesday, March 30, 2021

.....Some pockets of concern on the US Plains & Canadian Prairies but not enough to reverse futures yet.

 

After threatening to do so earlier in March, Dow is trading @ new highs above 33K! US (+7% growth in 2021?) & global (+5.4%?) economic recovery.....

Monday, March 29, 2021

.....optimism gathers steam despite more stumbles likely (EU/South America)? But there's light at the end of the tunnel!

 

Lean hog futures above $100 on the weekly chart for the first time sine Oct 2014 (PEDv year), on bullish (tight) USDA March Hogs & Pigs report

Friday, March 26, 2021

3rd consecutive higher weekly close. June futures above $104 has only been in 4 months during 46 years!

 

Bullish USDA March 2021 Hogs & Pigs report, with all the estimates coming in under expectations! Summer June-August Farrowing Intentions 4% lower!

Thursday, March 25, 2021

Marketing Hole? These numbers are not factored into futures yet, look for more upside near-term?

 

Trade does not expect a significant increase in the US all hogs inventory in tomorrow's USDA Hogs & Pigs quarterly report- 100.1% of last year &.....

Wednesday, March 24, 2021

.....kept for breeding expected to shrink to 98.7%! Kept for marketing 100.2%. Marketing hole due to PRRS/PEDv?

 

Crude Oil futures broke below 50-day moving average on US inventory build & extended COVIDー19 lockdowns in EU, but recovered? Increased volatility....

Tuesday, March 23, 2021

.....& corrective action before summer driving demand? Over-extended, Over-bought!

 

US 2021 Battle for Acres heats up with corn higher at 93-94, soybeans below 90, not enough! Corn on corn acres lower? 80%-90% will go to rotation.....

Monday, March 22, 2021

.....but swing acres could go to other crops with soaring fertilizer prices. There will be a surprise!

 

China customs data showed corn imports in Feb 2021 up +556% Y/Y, sorghum +267%, wheat +189%, pork +28%, as it continues to be the biggest ag.....

Thursday, March 18, 2021

..... consumer & importer. Expect their big imports to continue thru 2021?

 

US Fed expects economy accelerating @ 6.5% in 2021 vs Dec projection of 4.2%. Inflation expected to hit 2.4% vs target 2%, but drop to 2% in 2022

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

But Fed will not raise rates till 2023, & will continue to buy $120 Bil in bonds monthly? US bond market disagrees.

 

US winter wheat conditions improve slightly wk/wk but much worse off Y/Y- Kansas +2% wk/wk to 38% G-E (-8% Y/Y) Texas unchanged at 27%.....

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

..... G-E (-9% Y/Y) Colorado +6% to 25% G-E (unchanged Y/Y) Oklahoma +4% to 57% G-E (-10% Y/Y)

 

Travel is starting to pick up as TSA officers screened 1,357,111 mil people at U.S. airports this past Friday, making it the highest number.....

Monday, March 15, 2021

.....of passengers on a single day since March 15, 2020.

 

US pork cutout at its highest for this time of the year since PEDv year 2014, closing in on $100! Summer July futures also close to $100.....

Thursday, March 11, 2021

In the last 30 years at least, July futures crossed above $100 on March 11th only twice- 2011 & 2014!

 

Did you know that the $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus package is larger than Canada’s GDP! It will drive the global post-COVID-19 economic recovery,.....

Wednesday, March 10, 2021

.....led by the U.S. Some now forecast a 7% U.S. GDP growth for 2021- the best in decades

 

Crude Oil futures @ their highest since October 2018. It has climbed by ~$30 since early Nov. 2020, & +42% since the March 2020 COVID-19 lows,.....

Tuesday, March 9, 2021

.....as the recovery gathers steam & looks ahead to summer 2021 driving & economic reopening. Next target- 2018 high of $77

 

US Winter wheat deterioration continues in major states. Conditions fell in Kansas -1% wk/wk to 36% G-E (off -11% Y/Y), Texas fell -1% wk/wk.....

Tuesday, March 9, 2021

.....to 27% G-E (up +1% Y/Y), & Oklahoma improved +7% wk/wk to 53% G-E (off -5% Y/Y)

 

Soybeans, Canola, Soyoil and Hogs trade to new contract highs as of 03-08-21!

Monday, March 8, 2021

Soybeans, Canola, Soyoil and Hogs trade to new contract highs as of 03-08-21!

 

CFTC 2 March 2021- spec funds cut back net long position in corn, soybeans, canola, cotton, cattle; but raised it in SRW wheat, hogs...

Friday, March 5, 2021

Together, almost all grains, oilseeds & livestock have been in net long territory for 11 straight weeks (feeders took a break in mid-Jan)

CFTC Managed Money Positions in Ag as of March 2nd, 2021

Grains 2-Mar 23-Feb Gain/Loss
Corn 348,546 361,151 -12,605
Oats 817 794 23
Soybeans 155,561 172,364 -16,803
Soy Meal 65,424 69,487 -4,063
Soy Oil 108,081 112,645 -4,564
SRW Wheat 31,803 26,910 4,893
HRW Wheat 51,724 53,208 -1,484
HRS Wheat 14,101 12,153 1,948
Canola 33,658 39,957 -6,299
Cotton 66,031 72,454 -6,423
Lean Hogs 74,133 72,780 1,353
Live Cattle 80,570 88,164 -7,594
Feeder Cattle 1,164 1,734 -570

Source: CFTC

 

New & old crop canola futures trade to new contract highs! March futures expired at new record $828.9/MT after trading as high as $852.1 .....

Thursday, March 4, 2021

.....(2008 high was $744.5). May futures are trying to break above $800. Tight Canadian supplies get tighter!

 

Bubble Anyone? China stokes "bubble" fears... US stock markets continue to rise, aiming at new record highs, as if #COVID19 never happened...

Tuesday, March 2, 2021

Canadian real estate is soaring relentlessly even as economic data doesn't substantiate it....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-02/china-worried-about-bubbles-in-property-foreign-markets

 

2020 was a banner year for Canadian pork exports @ 1.49 MMT, valued @ CDN$5.093 bil, up +17.89% & 19.89% Y/Y. Exports to China grew over.....

Monday, March 1, 2021

.... 2½ times to record CDN$1.645 bil & 0.61 MMT. 2021 may find it tough to beat that but should stay elevated

 

2021 US corn and soybeans February final crop insurance averaging is $4.58 & $11.87/bu. A 6/7 year high is most likely going to attract record.....

Friday, February 26, 2021

.....acres, so will the USDA surprise on March 31st?

 

US Midwest 2021 dry conditions could be great for planting season but maybe not for the growing season?

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Australia will receive above-average fall rains in grain-growing eastern regions, helped by La Nina. Summer has been wetter than usual.
Australia will receive above-average fall rains in grain-growing eastern regions, helped by #LaNina. Summer has been wetter than usual.

 

US fertilizer prices up ~20% since the recent low in Oct 2020 on a perfect storm of strong demand, soaring grain prices, good spring application.....

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

.....prospects & tight global supply. Another 2012-type high in order long-term?

 

Old crop canola futures soar to $800/MT- first time ever! Tight near-term availability as Canada runs out of supply & frigid Prairies temps compound..

Monday, February 22, 2021

..the situation! New crop though is undervalued vs. old

 

Since at least 2010, USDA has not reported US soybean carryout this tight in the early annual Ag Outlook Forum (despite record output anticipated &...

Friday, February 19, 2021

.....second-highest yield)! Corn carryout is the tightest projected since the 2011 (La Nina) Forum

 

AAFC Feb update- 20/21 & 21/22 Canada canola carryout 700,000MT vs 1.2 & 1 MMT previously! 21/22 stocks-use ratio @ only 3%! If strong demand holds...

Thursday, February 18, 2021

.....carryout could be closer to 0 & Canada will need to import? Will 2021 acres be up 3-4%? If not it will add more fuel to fireworks!

 

ABARES- Australia to harvest record 20/21 wheat crop, at 33.34 MMT vs. previous 16/17 high of 31.8 MMT.....

Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Heavy rains in key producing regions boosted yields. Harvesting almost complete. USDA will update world balance-sheet higher in March?

 

National Cotton Council projects US farmers will plant 600,000 less cotton acres in 2021 (@ 11.5 mil). But with futures up +12% since start of 2021...

Thursday, February 11, 2021

..... vs. corn +4.1% & soybeans +7%, someone will be surprised in the USDA March 31st Planting Intentions report!

 

Palm Oil futures resilient despite broader weakness in canola, corn, soybeans, wheat. Veg oil tightness continues in 2021 as.....

Wednesday, February 10, 2021

..... March palm oil closes at new contract high. Grains/oilseed could follow soon- not if but when!

 

Farm Futures planting survey of 806 farmers in Jan. pegs 21 U.S. corn acres at 94.7 million, soybeans 84.5, winter wheat 32.4, spring 12.6....

Friday, February 5, 2021

The new crop bean/corn ratio 2.58% is too low! 84.7 soys too low it will not fix a tight balance sheet. '21 drought = prices thru the roof!

Farm Futures 21/22 U.S. Crop Acreage Estimates

(in Mil Acres) Farm Futures 21/22 Est.- Jan USDA 21/22 Early Est. USDA 20/21 Final
Corn 94.7 90.0 90.8
Soybeans 84.5 89.0 83.1

Source: USDA, Farm Futures

 

Tomorrow's Stats Canada Dec 31 quarterly grain stocks report is expected to show significantly lower canola stocks at 12.3 MMT, off -3.61 MMT Y/Y ....

Thursday, February 4, 2021

..... on strong demand. Wheat stocks also lower at 25.4 MMT.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-buying-spree-stokes-shortage-fears-for-top-canola-supplier-1.1558555

 

New contract highs in hog futures- continued strong exports, domestic demand & smaller supplies in coming months. ASF, PED cases in China's hogs....

Wednesday, February 3, 2021

..... , as piglet prices double, could slow their pork industry recovery. US pork exports to China could remain strong in 1st half of 2021?

 

Groundhog Day- Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, meaning 6 more weeks of winter! Its a 50/50 coin flip, but maybe Mother Nature has a different....

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

..... outlook with a La Nina weather forecast? It could be an early, warm & dry planting season?
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/groundhog-day-2021-results-punxsutawney-phil-predicts-6-more-weeks-of-winter/

 

Heavy rains (up to 10 inches) were seen in Southern regions of Brazil. Very poor timing for soybean harvest & safrinha corn planting....

Monday, February 1, 2021

Heavy rains (up to 10 inches) were seen in Southern regions of Brazil like Parana, Southern Catarina, Southern Mato Grosso Du Sul & Northern Rio Grande Du Sul. Very poor timing for soybean harvest & safrinha corn planting. Feb. is expected to stay wet! spglobal.com/platts/en/mark

 

Brazil's IMEA estimated Mato Grosso's 20/21 2nd season Safrinha corn planting progress at 2.1% complete, lagging last year's 21.9% & long term avg 14%

Friday, January 29, 2021

Soybeans harvest 4.7% complete, lagging 26.7% LY & 17.6% long term avg

 

New US farm bill in 2 yrs, Tom Vilsack says USDA will enable carbon markets where polluters pay farmers to plant grass/trees vs corn/soy....

Thursday, January 28, 2021

.....; expand payments to farmers for conservation stewardship Taking acres away = much higher prices?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/27/opinion/biden-vilsack-agriculture-climate-change.html

 

US economy contracted -3.5% in 2020 as COVID19 lockdowns to control the spread of the virus slowed growth, it but gained +4% in Q4 vs....

Thursday, January 28, 2021

 .....expected 4.3%. 2021 growth expected at 4-6% on vaccine hope

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/us-gdp-jobless-reports-1.5891351

 

AAFC est +3% increase in 2021 Canadian canola acres but stocks tighten to 1 MMT (even below 2020's tight 1.2) What if acres are not up & La Nina .....

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

..... results in lower yields, with a continued record demand inflationary environment, then what? New crop canola futures to the moon?

 

ADM earnings per share at a record, reporting China bought 200 mil gallons of US ethanol for first half 2021 (Game Changer?). CEO also expects record

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

Ukraine to limit 20/21 corn export at 24 MMT. They increased 20/21 grain export forecast to 45.42 MMT from prev 44.18 MMT. They raised 2020 corn....

Monday, January 25, 2021

....harvest to 30.3 MMT from 29.3 & exports to 23.5 MMT from 22.3. In 19/20 they exported 57 MMT grain

 

With corn futures +63%, soybeans +74% and cotton +59%, has corn bought acres from either, IHS Markit reporting 2021 US corn acres at 94.2 million?

Thursday, January 21, 2021

184 million corn/soy acreage pie looks a little ambitious?

21/22 U.S. Crop Acreage Early Estimates

(in Mil Acres) Markit 21/22 Est.- Jan Markit 21/22 Est.- Dec USDA 21/22 Early Est. USDA 20/21 Final
Corn 94.2 91.1 90.0 90.8
Soybeans 90.1 89.45 89.0 83.1
All Wheat 45.3 45.46 46.0 44.3
Cotton 11.5 13 11.2 12.1

Source: USDA, Markit Group

 

After USDA dropped 20/21 global grains supply est. in Jan WASDE, IGC affirmed it in their est. 20/21 corn output is reduced vs. prior est. ...........

Thursday, January 14, 2021

by a significant -13 MMT to 1,133 MMT, soybeans off -6 to 359, wheat off -1 to 768

20/21 IGC Grain Output & Consumption Estimates

(in Billion MT) 20/21 Jan. 20/21 Nov. Jan. vs. Nov. 19/20
Corn Output 1.133 1.146 -0.013 1.124
Soybean Output 0.359 0.365 -0.006 0.338
Wheat Outout 0.768 0.769 -0.001 0.764
Total Grain Output 2.21 2.22 -0.01 2.186
Total Grain Consumption 2.216 2.222 -0.006 2.192
Source: International Grains Council

 

EPA giving US refiners more time to blend to meet the deadlines for 2019 & 2020. EPA could grant 22 of 32 small refinery exemptions requested for 2019

Thursday, January 14, 2021

...compliance year? EPA has not reported one way or the other where they stand on SREs

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biofuels/us-epa-eyes-extending-refinery-biofuel-deadlines-no-action-on-waivers-idUSKBN29J226

 

Russia likely to extend wheat export tax into new marketing year beginning July 1! EU prices up over $34/MT Euros since December.....

Thursday, January 14, 2021

....What will wheat prices do when Russian export tax takes effect in mid-Feb? KC & MW wheat futures to new contract highs!

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/russia-may-almost-double-wheat-export-tax-to-stall-food-prices

 

Argentina has lifted all restrictions on old crop corn exports, but they will monitor situation to guarantee internal supply....

Wednesday, January 13, 2021

The export limit set at 30,000 MT/ day earlier this week. The 30,000 MT limit was itself a replacement for a complete suspension on all old crop corn exports during January and February, which was introduced at the end of December amid surging international corn, wheat and soybean prices.

According to private estimates, there is a stock of more than 8 mmt of corn in the domestic market, a volume more than enough to supply the 3.46 mmt required by the domestic market during January and February.

https://www.reuters.com/article/argentina-grains/update-3-argentine-agriculture-ministry-says-it-lifts-corn-export-limit-idUSL1N2JN21Q

 

2021 Final January USDA Crop Reports Extremely Bullish Surprise & Shock for Corn!

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

2021 JANUARY USDA WASDE 20/21 U.S. CROP ESTIMATES 

20/21 U.S. CROP USDA JANUARY JANUARY TRADE EST. USDA DECEMBER
Corn Harvested Area (Mil Acres) 82.5 82.543 82.527
Yield (bpa) 172 175.3 175.8
Production (Bil Bu) 14.182 14.470 14.507
Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 1.552 1.590 1.702
Soybeans Harvested Area (Mil Acres) 82.3 82.305 82.289
Yield (bpa) 50.2 50.5 50.7
Production (Bil Bu) 4.135 4.158 4.170
Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 0.140 0.140 0.175
Wheat Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 0.836 0.860 0.862

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters

 

2021 JANUARY USDA 20/21 WORLD ENDING STOCKS (MMT)

WORLD 20/21 USDA JAN. JAN. TRADE AVG. USDA DEC.
CORN 283.83 283.5 288.96
SOYBEANS 84.31 82.70 85.64
WHEAT 313.19 315.4 316.5

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters

 

2021 JANUARY USDA WASDE - 20/21 SOUTH AMERICAN PRODUCTION 

(in MMT) USDA 20/21 JAN. 20/21 JAN. TRADE AVERAGE USDA 20/21 DEC.
ARGENTINA
CORN 47.5 47.4 49.0
SOYBEANS 48.0 48.4 50.0
BRAZIL
CORN 109.0 107.7 110.0
SOYBEANS 133.0 131.4 133.0

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters

 

USDA DEC. 1, 2020 QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORT

(Bil Bu) USDA Dec. 1, 2020 Pre-Report Estimates, Dec. 1, 2020 USDA Sept.1, 2020 USDA Dec. 1, 2019
Corn 11.322 11.95 1.919 11.327
Soybeans 2.933 2.92 0.525 3.252
All Wheat 1.674 1.695 2.158 1.841

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters

 

2021 JANUARY U.S. WINTER WHEAT PLANTINGS

(Mil Acres) 2021 January USDA Jan 2021 Market Est. 2020 USDA
All Winter Wheat 31.991 31.528 30.415
Hard Red Winter Wheat 22.3 22.14 21.362
Soft Red Winter Wheat 6.23 5.884 5.564
White Winter 3.48 3.514 3.489

Source: USDA, Reuters

 

More fuel to the fire in wheat complex- Russia mulling plan to increase its proposed 25 euro/MT export tax to 50 euros?

Monday, January 11, 2021

Hike could come during Feb 15-March 15th?

https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-wheat-exports/update-1-russia-considers-increasing-wheat-export-tax-exporters-union-idUSL1N2JM1UD

 

2021 La Nina- US Midwest & Southern Plains has been drier than normal, and the US Drought Monitor map shows that 29% of Soybean area is in drought....

Friday, January 8, 2021

Spring-Summer outlook is dry. The start of 2012 looks similar to the start of 2021

 

Pre-port estimates for Jan 2021 USDA WASDE are coming in too high, so there is a high probability that the USDA could provide a bullish surprise?

Thursday, January 7, 2021

2021 JANUARY USDA WASDE 20/21 U.S. CROP ESTIMATES 

20/21 U.S. CROP JANUARY TRADE EST. JANUARY RANGE OF EST. USDA DECEMBER
Corn Harvested Area (Mil Acres) 82.543 82.0 - 84.16 82.527
Yield (bpa) 175.3 173.8 - 178.2 175.8
Production (Bil Bu) 14.470 14.319 - 14.997 14.507
Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 1.590 1.400 - 1.782 1.702
Soybeans Harvested Area (Mil Acres) 82.305 81.986 - 82.67 82.289
Yield (bpa) 50.5 49.4 - 51.7 50.7
Production (Bil Bu) 4.158 4.084 - 4.26 4.170
Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 0.140 0.105 - 0.166 0.175
Wheat Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 0.860 0.837 - 0.900 0.862

 

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters

 

The soybeans rally will have to pause at some point? But its remained overbought technically for 4 months & still rising? No exhaustion yet but....

Wednesday, January 6, 2021

.... maybe "buying the rumor, selling the news" ahead of Jan WASDE. Or will USDA surprise & futures will need to ration more demand?

 

US Winter wheat conditions through the end of 2020 was much worse off Y/Y, with a lot of significant poor-very poor (P-VP) ratings.....

Tuesday, January 5, 2021

....Wheat has been a follower to corn & soybeans for the most part so far but could soon lead, as it did in 2010?

U.S. Winter Wheat Conditions @ End-2020

U.S. States End-2020 End-2019
G-E % P-VP% G-E % P-VP%
Illinois 50 25 48 16
Colorado 19 34 57 19
Kansas 46 17 40 21
Montana 65 5 55 16
Nebraska 37 15 70 6
North Dakota 26 22 75 7
South Dakota 37 8 73 1

Source: USDA
U.S. Winter Wheat Conditions @ End-2020

 

New contract highs in grain & oilseed futures at the start of the new year- 2021

Monday, January 4, 2021

as South American crop supply worries continue due to dry weather, but demand remains strong.

 

CFTC weekly COT, Dec 29, 2020- spec funds bought a whopping 66,332 contracts net in corn to take net length to 332,045, highest since summer 2012, &..

Monday, January 4, 2021

now estimated long 350,000 after last week's price surge!

CFTC Managed Money Positions in Ag as of December 29th, 2020
CFTC Managed Money Positions in Ag as of December 29th, 2020

Grains 29-Dec 21-Dec Gain/Loss
Corn 332,045 265,713 66,332
Oats 1,481 1,404 77
Soybeans 196,487 188,623 7,864
Soy Meal 89,487 83,385 6,102
Soy Oil 112,989 101,253 11,736
SRW Wheat 13,360 6,233 7,127
HRW Wheat 55,560 51,544 4,016
HRS Wheat 3,933 2,420 1,513
Canola 56,215 60,390 -4,175
Cotton 68,429 70,533 -2,104
Lean Hogs 33,770 32,854 916
Live Cattle 49,001 47,698 1,303
Feeder Cattle 3,726 3,358 368

Source: CFTC

 

Russian officials considering imposing a wheat export tax of around 2,000 roubles ($27.3) per MT for Feb. 15-June 30, to stabilise domestic prices

Friday, December 11, 2020

Russia is considering imposing the wheat export tax, a grain export quota as well as a price cap for domestic sunflower oil and sugar prices following President Vladimir Putin's criticism of rising food prices.

 

USDA 2020 December Crop Report Friendly with a Surprise Lower Global Wheat Ending Stocks Number

Thursday, December 10, 2020

USDA leaves the U.S. corn balance sheet unchanged, but soybeans fall to 175 million bushels on a 15-million-bushel jump in crush. Soybean exports were left unchanged. Wheat exports were increased 10 million bushels and U.S. ending stocks fall to 862 million bushels below expectations vs. last month at 877.

USDA reduced the global ending stocks of corn, soybeans and surprised with a much lower wheat number vs. expectations. China corn imports jumped to 16.5 mmt from 13 mmt. Wheat supplies in fell in China and EU. China wheat imports bumped up 0.5 mmt to 8.5 mmt.

USDA reduced the 20/21 harvest of both corn and soybeans in Argentina by 1 mmt each. The 19/20 Argentina soybean harvest was also trimmed from 49 mmt. Brazil crops were unchanged from the November estimates.

 The "holy grail" report and potential bullish surprise will be the final January USDA crop report on Jan. 12, 2021. In the past 7 years the USDA has lowered U.S. corn ending stocks 6 out of 7 years from the Nov. to Jan. crop reports. Soybeans lower 4 out of the past 5 years!

Cash crop producers be patient remain on the offence (risk on futures) with unpriced bushels, do not pay commercial elevator storage. Livestock producers/commercials extend feed coverage/get covered out further on any any further breaks in futures by year-end.

 

Latest USDA weekly corn inspections disappointing but soybeans were better than expected with 68% to China. Wheat inspections up +3% Y/Y....

Monday, December 7, 2020

 

Actual

Trade Expectations

Prior Week

YTD

(Y/Y %)

Corn

734

750 - 1,100

1,035

11,027

69%

Soybean

2,297

1,500 - 2,200

2,424

29,420

69%

Wheat

531

400 - 600

534

13,467

3%

 

USDA Dec crop report estimates show trade anticipating the continuation of the tightening trend in the US and world ending stocks,.....

Monday, December 7, 2020

..... not including world wheat. Modest downward revisions are expected in South American production.

 

Latest CFTC weekly report showed speculative money reducing length in grains. -16.9k corn (net long 270.6k), -9.1k soybeans (net long 194.6k),....

Friday, December 4, 2020

.... -19.6k srw (net short -4.3k), -3.9k hrw (net long 44.5k), -749 meal (net long 70.3k) and -626 oil (net long 104.7k).

 

Stats Can says 20/21 Canadian canola production is smallest in 5 years as both Saskatchewan & Alberta reported lower production.....

Thursday, December 3, 2020

Yields were impacted by dry conditions across parts of the Prairies, especially later in the growing season.

The November production estimates for the 2020 Canadian wheat, canola and corn crops tightened vs. the July estimates, while the soybeans, barley and oats estimates were higher vs. July.

(in MMT)

2020 (Nov. Est.)

2020 (July Est.)

2019

Y/Y Change

Total wheat

35.183

35.74

32.67

7.69%

Durum

6.571

6.926

5.017

30.97%

Spring Wheat

25.841

25.935

25.952

-0.43%

Winter Wheat

2.77

2.879

1.701

62.85%

Barley

10.741

10.546

10.383

3.45%

Canola

18.72

19.403

19.607

-4.52%

Corn

13.563

13.928

13.404

1.19%

Oats

4.576

4.498

4.227

8.26%

Soybeans

6.359

5.962

6.145

3.48%

Flaxseed

0.578

0.553

0.486

18.93%

 

CFTC weekly COT, Nov 17th- corn, soybeans & wheat saw net speculative selling, whereas hogs & cattle featured net buying.

Friday, November 20, 2020

Managed money funds have been net long almost all grains & livestock since early Sept.

 

In 2½ months of MY 20/21, US committed ~86% of soybeans export target (at record 2.2 bil bu) on extraordinary China demand.

Thursday, November 19, 2020

Remaining 14% must be rationed, and exports could be increased further? The winter rally has more legs left?

 

CFTC weekly COT for Nov 10- Recent speculative position in #soybeans near the "peaks" of (record futures year) 2012!

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Managed money funds sold corn, wheat, canola, cotton, hogs. Cattle featured net speculative buying. 

 

Soybean futures closing in on $12/bu target. La Nina is increasing dryness in South America at a time when the global balance sheet is tightening.

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

South Brazil & Argentina are most affected in La Nina years. $12 beans was last seen in June 2016 (briefly)

 

Crude Oil futures buoyed by positive COVID-19 vaccine news. OPEC expects 2020 world oil demand to contract by ~9.8 mbpd Y/Y. OPEC+ meet .....

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

.... Nov 30 & Dec 1 to discuss next phase of oil production policy. 2021 demand looks better?

 

It took FOUR years for Soybean futures to climb back above $11.50/bu, as USDA delivered a BULLISH Nov WASDE surprise with .....

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

.... lower US 20/21 crop est, including corn and wheat. Early Christmas gift, with ideas of strong close to 2020 as it ALL comes together for grain markets?

 

Dow hits record 30K! Pfizer says COVID19 vaccine is more than 90% effective (vs seasonal flu at 40-60%). 1.2 mil doses available in 2021....

Monday, November 9, 2020

Risk-ON recovery? Money shifting from stay-at-home stocks (ZOOM) to growth stocks (tech, energy)?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vaccine-pfizer-drug-is-more-than-90percent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html

 

Strength in grains supported by expected US & global balance sheet tightening in USDA Nov 10th WASDE, with La Nina uncertainty in South America...

Thursday, November 5, 2020

USDA to revise corn & soybean exports on increased China demand & lower production, yields & ending stocks.

 

New contract highs for deferred #soybean futures as the rally kicks into higher gear

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

USDA Nov WASDE expected to show for lower yields & tighter 20/21 US corn and soybean crops.
Demand continues to be strong.
La Nina is threatening South American Crops.

 

#2 soybean exporter US is shipping 38,000 MT to #1 exporter Brazil (largest such transaction since 1997), as it is grappling with rising prices .....

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

.... of domestic food staples. Futures boosted by continued strong demand

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/brazil-bound-u-s-soybean-vessel-loading-at-gulf-coast-terminal-southport-shipping-lineup-3

 

La Nina, which is currently moderate-to-strong, likely to be active through spring 2021, & in summer 2021?

Monday, November 2, 2020

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2020/10/15/la-nia-a-presidential-election-and-the-winter-weather-outlook/?sh=6eda21a04f13

 

CFTC COT Oct 27- managed money funds bought 57,410 in corn to take net length to 276,235, highest since late-July 2015...

Friday, October 30, 2020

But likely to come down in next week's report due to sell off this week. 2021 futures closed higher today though

 

Crude oil futures break below support on global COVID-19 case increases & US presidential election jitters. But US Q3 GDP up +33% a positive. OPEC+...

Thursday, October 29, 2020

... might have to increase production cut in Jan as demand falters

 

USDA monthly cumulative daily sales announcements started soaring in July due to China demand but the pace has slowed in October....

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Daily announcements only include those that are higher than 100,000-200,000 MT

2020 Monthly Cumulative Daily Sales Announcements Since July

(in MMT) Corn Soybeans
July 6.287 4.162
August 3.155 4.597
September 2.172 5.89
October
(month-to-date)
1.286 2.748

 

Source: USDA, QTPlus

 

Weekly CFTC commitment of traders for Oct 20- managed money funds increased net length in Ag, except cattle

Friday, October 23, 2020

Corn highest since March 2018.Soybean highest since Sept. 2012 .
Grain futures had a strong weekly close.

 

China requested millers to stop buying Australian cotton. That and potential damage from Hurricane Delta in US cotton regions supported cotton futures

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Dec reached a high of $71.65 today- values not seen in 9-months!

 

US consumption of renewable energy in 2019 grew for 4th consecutive year to record 11.5 quadrillion Btu (11% of total US energy consumption)

Monday, October 19, 2020

Wind-powered (turbine) electricity accounted for ~24%, overtaking hydroelectricity.

 

CFTC COT for 13 Oct showed more managed money fund buying in corn, wheat, cotton & hogs, and selling in soybeans, canola & cattle.

Friday, October 16, 2020

CFTC Managed Money Positions in Ag as of October 13th, 2020

Grains 13-Oct 6-Oct Gain/Loss
Corn 170,869 134,466 36,403
Oats 1,477 1,375 102
Soybeans 226,444 238,394 -11,950
Soy Meal 77,068 77,067 1
Soy Oil 82,188 80,994 1,194
SRW Wheat 38,590 30,336 8,254
HRW Wheat 32,197 27,379 4,818
HRS Wheat -1,774 -5,112 3,338
Canola 52,949 58,470 -5,521
Cotton 59,942 53,080 6,862
Lean Hogs 37,154 35,674 1,480
Live Cattle 56,038 59,016 -2,978
Feeder Cattle -3,834 -1,872 -1,962

Source: CFTC

 

2020 December Corn Futures overnight hit $4.00/bu!

Thursday, October 15, 2020

The uptrend remains intact on a smaller U.S. corn crop, strong Chinese demand and the perception that a continued dry South American La Nina weather pattern will further delay the soybean planting season and push the second-Safrinha corn crop into a less desirable window-of-weather.

In the past 3-yaers corn futures have traded above $4.10/bu but always in the spring.

The probability is increasing that it may happen by year-end!

 

It's been exactly a year to the date since nearby corn futures broke above $4! Soybeans last week reached the highest since January 2017!

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Some (recent) historic milestones?

 

US pork cutout at new highs for the current leg up. Pork bellies doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Demand continues to be king!

Tuesday, October 13, 2020

supportive for hog futures, along with its steep discount to cash (which will entice more buying on breaks)

 

US CPC La Nina advisory- 85% chance La Nina conditions likely to last through northern hemisphere winter & 60% chance they will run into spring-2021

Friday, October 9, 2020

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-weather-lanina/u-s-forecaster-sees-85-chance-of-la-nia-through-winter-idUKKBN26T2LA

 

USDA 2020 October Crop Report Bullish Corn, Soybean & Wheat as U.S. Ending Stocks Fall!

Friday, October 9, 2020

According to today’s much-anticipated USDA Oct. WASDE crop report, U.S. 20/21 corn yield was slightly lowered, no change to soybeans, and wheat was lowered to 49.7bpa from 50.1 last month. But harvested area was reduced for both soys & corn after a review of certified acreage data from FSA. Corn and soy production both came in below trade expectations as a result.

20/21 US soybean ending stocks came in at 290 mil bu for 2020/21, well below trade expectations, on a harvest reduction, increase in exports, and a smaller beginning stocks. Corn comes in close to trade expectations, and wheat is lower. 

20/21 global ending stocks were generally lighter than expected, especially for soybeans, though new crop wheat is much higher. Russia's 2020 harvest was increased 5 mmt. Ukraine's corn harvest was cut by 2 mmt. China's 20/21 soybean demand +1 mmt to 100 mmt. 

 

August US ag exports to China @ $2.15 bil including $881 mil soybeans, $190 mil corn , about double that of July. YTD ag exports to China @ $9.6 bil

Thursday, October 8, 2020

& will accelerate fast as record Q4 sales needed to meet Phase 1 goal.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/column-u.s.-farm-exports-to-china-hit-new-august-record-thanks-to-soybeans-braun-2020-10-0

 

Dec Chicago wheat traded above $6 today, at the upper level of short-term channel and keeps the 4-year uptrend alive. Dry weather in Russia &......

Wednesday, October 7, 2020

 .....region is tightening world supplies. Russia planning on setting grain export quota for the first half of 2021!

 

Soybean futures open interest topped 1 million for the first time ever! Nov at new contract high. Will #USDA surprise for the 2nd consecutive time....

Tuesday, October 6, 2020

..... in less than 2 weeks? In Oct. WASDE crop report, trade expects lower 20/21 U.S. corn & soybean yields and ending stocks, and lower ending stocks for wheat.

 

CFTC Sept. 29th, Managed Money net buyers of corn, soybean & products, &Cattle. Soybeans closing in on record long and likely already there post......

Friday, October 2, 2020

.... USDA Sept 30th Grain Stocks report. Funds will be in for more positioning ahead of next week's crop report

 

USDA pork cutout jumps +$4.28 today to $95.65. That's a climb of +$33.05 since early July. As exports also roar on hog futures find support,....

Thursday, October 1, 2020

 .... especially as futures have a steep discount to cash. Demand is King!

 

2021 July Corn Futures hit $4.00/bu intraday high today a 7-month high!

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Corn futures rallied today after a bullish USDA Sept. 1 stocks report surprise.

 

USDA Sept. 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report & U.S. whaet production below expectations & BULLISH!

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

September 1 U.S. stocks came in below pre-report expectations for corn down 255 millio0n bushels, soybeans down 53 million bushels and wheat down 83 million bushels.

USDA revised June 1 stocks which contributed to the shocking surprise in corn numbers with June 1 U.S. corn stocks revised down 205 million bushels, soybeans down 4.6 million bushels and wheat down 15.9 million bushels.

U.S. wheat production come I below trade estimates and 5% below a year ago.

 

With dry weather forecasted for most of Oct for US Corn Belt, we may be on pace for 90+% harvest completed for US corn & soybeans by end of Oct?

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Recently, harvest pace for corn was strong in 2015 & soys in 2010

 

Argentina & South Brazil received weekend rains but key corn & soy producing center west & center-south Brazil remain dry & slowing pace of planting..

Monday, September 28, 2020

.... with little to no help showing in the forecast. More precip is needed there!

 

From Wall Street Journal- CME & Nasdaq plan to launch WATER futures. 1-of-a-kind allowing protection against price swings, & risk-management tool....

Friday, September 25, 2020

Veles Water Ltd created a water-price index to which the futures will be tied.

 

Markit Group forecast higher Y/Y US 2021 corn (93.7 mil vs 92 in 2020) & soybean acreage (87.1 vs 83.5 in 2020)! 2021 corn crop @ huge 16.61 bil bu,..

Monday, September 21, 2020

.... 181 bpa; & 2020 @ 14.888 bil bu, 178.7 bpa. 2021 soy @ 4.48 bil bu, 52 bpa; & 2020 @ 4.306 bil bu, 52.1 bpa.

 

Farm Futures survey (1,044 producers)- 2021 US corn acreage estimated @ 91.8 mil acres vs 92 this year, soybeans @ 87.9 mil, up +4.1 Y/Y, &.....

Friday, September 18, 2020

.... winter wheat @ 31.2 mil (1st acreage increase in 7 years), +2.13% Y/Y)

 

USDA weekly exports for Sept 10 showed US #pork sales to #China at 35,900 MT, which is among the biggest in 2020. Garmany ASF factor .....

Thursday, September 17, 2020

..... As question marks over China's pork imports from Germany (due to ASF) get bigger, could this be "the factor" that boosts U.S. exports from here on?

 

Strong winds & heavy rains in China's northeast grain-heavy region may hurt 10 MMT of corn, 4% production. The region was hit by 3 typhoons in Aug....

Wednesday, September 16, 2020

.... , causing flooded fields during crop-maturity, limiting harvest pace & test weights.
it.reuters.com/article/idAFL4

 

COVID-19 will cause a 20% drop in global ethanol production, says US Grains Council. They expect a loss of 23 bil litres of production

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

CFTC data for September 8th shows Managed Money Funds net long position at 1-year high in corn & 2-year high in soybeans

Monday, September 14, 2020

+14.8k corn wk/wk to net long 33.4k & +11.3k soybeans wk/wk to net long 173.9k.

 

Friendly USDA Sept. WASDE Crop Report- Lower 20/21 US corn & soybeans yield & ending stocks. Dec corn closes week up @ $3.685 & Nov soy $9.96

Friday, September 11, 2020

20/21 U.S. corn yield @ 178.5 bpa & soybeans at 51.9 bpa, both close to trade expectations. Ending stocks came in lower than expected for soybeans & higher than expected for corn. 

 

ASF detected in wild boar carcass in EU's top pork producer Germany's eastern state. Lean hogs break higher with another gap and closed limit up!

Thursday, September 10, 2020

Optimism for more export demand (especially from China) for US pork?

 

USDA weekly Crop Progress, Sept 6th- Corn @ 61% G-E, off -1 wk/wk & 5th drop in a row. Soybeans 65% G-E, off -1 wk/wk & 4th drop in a row!

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

Winter wheat 5% planted & spring wheat 82% harvested

 

The 2020 5th Great Ontario Yield Tour final average corn yield is 183.3 bpa!

Thursday, September 3, 2020

Thank you all who participated hosts, sponsors, scouts & farmers!

 

2020 5th Annual Great Ontario Yield Tour final average soybean yield is a NEW record high at 53.2 bpa!

Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Thank you all who participated hosts, sponsors, scouts & farmers!

 

USDA Crop Progress- Aug 30, U.S. corn rated 62% G-E, down -2% from last week but 1% better than trade expectations. Soybeans dropped -3% to 66% G-E,..

Monday, August 31, 2020

... which was in line with expectations. Crop conditions at this time of year are likely less helpful as crops start to dry down and mature. 

 

Pro Farmer crop tour today pegged the US Corn avg yield at 177.5 bpa (USDA @ 181.8) & soybeans at 52.5 bpa (USDA @ 53.3)......

Friday, August 21, 2020

US Corn Production estimated by tour at 14.82 bil bu (USDA @ 15.278 in Aug report), & Soybean Production at 4.362 bil bu (USDA @ 4.425).

 

USDA Crop Progress today rated corn 69% G-E (-2% wk/wk) & 10% P-VP (+2%); soybeans 72% G-E (-2%) & 7% P-VP (+2%), on derecho damage

Monday, August 17, 2020

Iowa corn after #derecho fell -10% to 59% G-E, soys fell -8% to 62% G-E. Illinois corn also -3% G-E.

 

2.5 - 4.5 bpa 20/21 US #corn yield loss possible, says StoneX due to derecho storm. 200-400 mil bu corn destroyed? Iowa's Ag Sec feels 10 mil acres...

Thursday, August 13, 2020

.... in Iowa hit. More acres impacted in Illinois & Midwest

 

Dirty ridge over US crop area next 10 days. Temps seasonably warm & scattered showers/thunderstorms causing variable rain. Majority light precip....

Friday, August 7, 2020

Ridge stable & significant late next week-Aug 20, more stressful for 'unwatered' crops! 18% of US corn & 13% soybeans in drought

 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 19/20 Argentina corn crop est @ 50 MMT has eclipsed the soybeans crop @ 49.6 MMT for 1st time ....

Thursday, August 6, 2020

.... since weekly records began, due to more harvested area up +19.8% Y/Y

 

Farmlink-sponsored Canadian Crop Tour projects much bigger Western Canadian wheat, canola, oats & barley crops than AAFC on ....

Wednesday, August 5, 2020

.... much stronger yields. August is in for a strong finish?

 

Pvt. analysts expect higher US 20/21 corn & Soybean yields than USDA, with many above 180 bpa corn & 52 bpa soys- big record crops! ....

Wednesday, August 5, 2020

Too many leaning too much to the bearish side of the price boat? Will Aug WASDE surprise, from oversold levels?

 

According to CFTC COT report, as of 28th July, 2020, managed money funds are now net long in canola, which is the first time since end-October 2018...

Friday, July 31, 2020

.... For the week, funds bought net +19,581 contracts.

 

ADM CEO says that the worst of COVID-19 Ag demand loss is over, while the US is set for large Q4 exports on firm China demand & .....

Thursday, July 30, 2020

.... tight South American supplies.

 

US Q2-2020 GDP slumped -32.9% Y/Y vs expected -34.7%; 1Q-2020 Final -5%. Sharpest drop since at least 1940s! Personal spending dropped -34.6%,....

Thursday, July 30, 2020

.... also a record! Longer COVID-19 lasts without vaccine, longer US economic output remains below pre-crisis levels?

 

North Dakota State Uni Crop specialists- dry June weather in western ND & excess rains in southeast will keep ND spring wheat yields lower Y/Y? .....

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

..... 2020 yield likely near 45 bpa vs 49 bpa last year. ND spring wheat crop est. at 263 mil bu?

 

USDA Crop Progress, 26th July- both corn & soybean conditions uptick +3% to 72% G-E vs. expectations of steady 69%, reflecting improvement .......

Monday, July 27, 2020

..... from recent rains. In 5-day forecast, heavy precip for center of US but missing most major Midwest growing areas?

 

CFTC COT, 21 July, net managed money in SRW #wheat back to net long after spending 9 weeks in net short. Soybean oil saw a steep 26.7K net buying ....

Saturday, July 25, 2020

..... for the week. Strong veg oil complex buying seen in canola of +12.67K net weekly buying.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Illinois rated 8.5/10. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Friday, July 24, 2020

Both the early May cold snap & early June heat may have reduced top end yields. Lots of variability with storm damage but recovery looking strong. We rate the state 8.5 out of 10 with above avg. potential.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - In the state of North Dakota. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

We rate the state a 8 out of 10 & could add to the national yields despite lower corn acres

 

Malaysian palm oil futures rises on production issues in Indonesia and labour shortages in Malaysia, supports veg oil, including canola .........

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

higher soy oil also supporting a break out in canola futures above resistance

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - In the state of Minnesota. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Plenty of moisture corn is 1-2 weeks behind for 50% of the acres. MN should be able to contribute to the national yield & rank the state an 8.5 out of 10.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - In the state of Iowa. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

North to center east/west is the garden spot but wind/hail damage in North/East IA will shave top end yields. South east/west too dry. We rank the state a 9 out of 10 with strong yield potential in 2020.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - In the state of Wisconsin. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

WI was a hit & miss a crop of 2 tails depending on planting date, no stress. Corn production ranked 9th, soybeans 12th. We rank state a 7.5 out of 10 with avg. yield potential. 2019 corn yield 166, soys 47.

 

US Midwest hot, humid weather stressing reproductive corn & soybeans in low soil moisture areas. U.S. Drought Monitor,......

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

..... 15% of corn area experiencing drought, & 9% of soybean area. Dry weather prevails in Midwest, despite earlier showers and thunderstorms

 

China bought another 1.6 MMT (63 mil bu) of US corn- 4th largest 1-day sale ever, & takes China's total purchase in 1 week over 3 MMT ...........

Tuesday, July 14, 2020

...... They bought 2.362 MMT for 20/21 MY. 

China also bought 129,000 MT of US soybeans.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - In the state of Missouri. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Monday, July 13, 2020

Pollination has already occurred in corn. Blooming in soybeans but its early weather in July/August & precip is most critical for yield. There is no margin for error.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Concluding tour in Kansas. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Monday, July 13, 2020

Rating the state, 6 out of 10. Started too wet, got too dry extended period of 3 weeks. Needs timely rains thru Jul/Aug/good finish to beat 2014 record yield of 149 bpa corn & 48 bpa soybeans in 2016.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Concluding tour in Nebraska. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Monday, July 13, 2020

Rating state, 7 out of 10. Irrigated acres will offset dry land yields but avg. Western KS dry, topsoil moisture 50% adequate-surplus down from 96%. Corn pollinating in heat, late due to cold snap mid-May.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Concluding tour in South Dakota. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Monday, July 13, 2020

Despite too much moisture “rain makes grain” rating state, 7.5 out of 10 avg/above avg. Crops are a week behind with minor issues, but a lack of extreme heat & timely rains should help crop recover.

 

2020 July WASDE neutral/friendly- US corn ending stocks bit below trade est. in both 19/20 & 20/21. 19/20 & 20/21 US soy stocks above est. 20/21 Wheat

Friday, July 10, 2020

....ending stocks were slightly below trade estimates.

Due to the June acreage numbers, 1 billion bushels were cut from the U.S. 20/21 corn crop productions estimate and 20/21 U.S. soybean production was slightly raised. But both were a bit below trade expectations. No changes were made to yield.

 

Accuweather- Meteorologists warn that ongoing heat a& drought in parts of US Southwest & Plains states are likely to get worse.....

Monday, July 6, 2020

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Top observations for Central/Southern IL. Thank You Sponsor @genesisaglife

Thursday, July 2, 2020

Corn is behind for this time of the year. There is higher risk of hot/dry weather affecting the critical pollination stage mid/end of July. Timely rains reduced drought.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Top 3 observations for Southern IN. Thank You Sponsor @genesisaglife

Wednesday, July 1, 2020

1. Farmers planted soybeans earlier than corn due to cold/wet & frost during first week of May 

2. Early planted corn 1-week behind, late planted 3-4 

3. Timely rains & yield potential remains strong

 

Bullish 2020 USDA June Acreage report overshadows Quarterly Grain Stocks report. Grain prices close sharply higher....

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Super reports! The 2020 end-of-June Acreage & Quarterly Grain Stocks  reports release lived up to its reputation as a widow-maker, finding a surprisingly low amount of corn acres and an equally startling higher quarterly US corn inventory as of June 1st. With the market leaning aggressively short with very little hope of a rally just a few short days ago, the bullish acreage data easily overshadowed the bearish quarterly stocks report, in terms of market impact.

The report also showed a lower-than-expected gain in acreage for soybeans, and a significant cut to current stock levels amid increased buying from China over the past couple of months. 

All Wheat acreage too was lower than expected and lower than March intentions, while the June wheat stocks were higher than expected. 

This was the first shoe to drop to change the bearish sentiment. Now, the second shoe will be the hot and dry weather in the coming week. If the the unfavourable conditions are extended during July, $4.00 corn & $10.00 soys are not out of the question, as a summer 2020 top.

 

Stats Canada 2020 June Acreage- canola, barley, oats & durum acres higher than spring intentions; corn, soybean & spring wheat acres lower.....

Monday, June 29, 2020

... Farmers continue to face their own unique COVID-19 challenges in production & distribution

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Top 3 observations for State of Ohio. Thank You Sponsor @genesisaglife

Monday, June 29, 2020

1. Corn plants much shorter than expected, planted later, very little head high corn by July 1 

2. No crop stress 

3. Large % corn pollination end Jul/early Aug. Rank state 6 out of 10 but lots of potential

 

USDA June Hogs & Pigs report showed higher than expected total inventory (105%), for breeding (99%) & for marketing (106%)- which mostly ......

Thursday, June 25, 2020

... accounts for the backed-up hogs due to COVID-19? Euthanized pigs & low prices likely caused Jun-Aug & Sept-Nov farrowing of just 95%

 

China buying big amounts of US & Ukraine corn? 1 MMT likely bought from both. Some say 8-10 cargoes sold from Ukraine's new crop & 10 from U.S. for...

Thursday, June 25, 2020

.... Oct, Nov & Dec. Key is that buying happened! Good News! USDA weekly corn exports report today showed Chinese business!

 

US considering $3.1 bil in new tariffs on French, German, Spanish, & UK goods- olives, coffee, chocolate, beer, gin, trucks, machinery, etc, due to...

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

.... long-standing dispute with EU over subsidies to large civil aircraft manufacturers
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/us-assessing-3point1-billion-in-tariffs-on-france-germany-spain-the-uk.html

 

Heat wave caused unusual 100 degrees F in Siberia (one of the coldest places on earth) during June 20-21 as YTD extreme temp anomalies continue.......

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

.... This is the hottest on record anywhere in the Arctic. Heat spots also seen elsewhere close to North Pole

 

Milk futures V-shaped COVID-19 recovery is +74% in just over 2 months! Could see record prices as rally is yet to catch up to record cheese prices ...

Monday, June 22, 2020

... But with RSI near 80, is this a 2nd opportunity to manage risk?

 

Rough day in the market as Dow fell ~1,900 points (down 7%)- worst day since March! Crude oil fell almost 10%. & US$ was nearly 1% higher. ....

Thursday, June 11, 2020

.... Selloff was sparked by some concern over an increase in COVID-19 in select 'reopened' US states?

 

2020 June USDA WASDE crop report friendly vs. expectations for both corn/soybeans but bearish wheat

Thursday, June 11, 2020

In U.S. ending stocks the trade was too heavy projecting corn and new crop soybeans with 20/21 at 395 million bushels a 3 handle. Wheat comes in bigger than expected.

The 19/20 corn crop was reduced bu 46 mbu (including a 10$ cut in North Dakota). Natioanl yield cut to 167.4 (was 167.8). 19/20 corn for ethanol cut by 50 to 4.9 billion bushels. 19/20 exports unchanged at 1.775 bbu, 19/20 feed & residual unchanged at 5.7 billion bushels.

The 202021 U.S. wheat crop is expected to be a bit larger than last year vs. expectations especially for HRW wheat. Total production is seen 2% lighter than last year.

World stocks came in lighter than expected for both corn and soybeans, but new-crop wheat was much larger. Big moves in 20/21 wheat production: Australia 26 mmt (was 24), India 107.2 mmt (was 103), China 136 mmt (was 135), Ukraine 26.5 mmt (was 28), and EU 141 mmt (was 143).

USDA made no changes to the 19/20 corn crops in Argentina and Brazil, but they reduced Argentina’s soybeans to 50 mmt. No change for Brazil soybeans.

Corn up 1, soys down 1 and wheat down 7. Markets focus will now turn to weather and the more market moving reports at the end of the month the June Acreage and stock reports. The missing link is the Chinese demand that remains a "wildcard" and a hot and dry weather forecast that last for 2-4 weeks to spark the funds into a short covering rally.

 

US Fed June FOMC kept funds rate steady 0%-0.25% & will remain low until '22. COVID-19 poses considerable risks to economy medium-term, .....

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

..... weighing on growth, inflation & jobs. Expect recovery in 2nd half of '20, & GDP bouncing to 5% in '21
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/fed-meeting-decision-interest-rates.html

 

CONAB in June raised Brazil's 19/20 soybean crop (on higher yield) to 120.424 MMT (USDA @ 124 MMT) but reduced corn crop (lower yield & ....

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

.... acreage) to 100.99 MMT (USDA @ 101)- due to drop in safrinha corn. Trade expects USDA to reduce both crops in June WASDE

 

OPEC+ (incl. Russia), on Saturday, agreed to extend record crude oil cuts until the end of July & prolong the deal!

Monday, June 8, 2020

OPEC+ record deal to cut oil outout & reduce global supplies by 10% helped crude futures to +100% rally in last 2 months. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/06/opec-and-allies-reportedly-agree-to-extend-record-production-cut.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail

 

USDA slaughter last week of hogs & cattle is almost back to normal vs last year- great news for the industry! ...

Monday, June 8, 2020

Although YTD is lagging, that can be cleared with aggressive Saturday kills. Last week, Saturday hogs kills at 323,000 was more than 6 times Y/Y.

 

Are we seeing the seasonal summer grain rally? Seasonal last year was during mid-May when managed money funds were net short 322,215 in corn .....

Friday, June 5, 2020

.... this year, as of early June, funds are net short 282,266. Time to cover them shorts?

 

Dryness continues in Southern Plains- West Texas with little rainfall. Drought monitor shows drought expanding, supporting HRW wheat & cotton futures

Friday, June 5, 2020

July canola rebounds off $456. Is chart reversing despite Canada-China political tensions? Prairie planting slows due to rain .....

Thursday, June 4, 2020

 Producers in Manitoba are about 88% done planting this year’s crops. Across the province, canola is approximately 85% - 95% planted. However, the southwest and northwest regions are behind that pace.

 

OPEC's Saudi & non-OPEC Russia have preliminarily agreed to extend existing record crude oil production cuts by 1 month .....

Wednesday, June 3, 2020

.... Date of meeting to finalize deal uncertain. Some feel OPEC+ will extend commitment to reduce oil production by 9.7 mbd during July-Sept.

 

Stats Canada 2020 June Acreage- canola, barley, oats & durum acres higher than spring intentions;corn, soybeans & spring wheat acres lower.....

Monday, June 1, 2020

.... Farmers continue to face their own unique COVID-19 challenges in production & distribution

 

China asked state-owned COFCO & Sinograin to halt buying US soybeans & pork as US eliminated special treatment for Hong Kong to punish China.....

Monday, June 1, 2020

 Large volume corn & cotton also put on hold. China bought $3 bil worth of US goods thus far out of a total $36.5. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-agriculture-idUSKBN238264

 

USDA Cattle on Feed and slaughter data suggest that the trade estimate of 1 mil heads of cattle backed up is as much as 50% overstated?

Friday, May 29, 2020

U.S. cattle got backed up due to COVID-19 packer shutdown.

 

IGC pegged 20/21 global corn production at 1.169 bil MT, up +11 MMT over prior outlook; wheat production at 766 MMT, up +2 MMT over prior. But ....

Thursday, May 28, 2020

.... a hot & dry summer can alter those plans? 20/21 global corn production increase is led by higher production in US & China.

 

Iowa Ag dept. announced plans to compensate farmers that must euthanize their hogs because of COVID-19. They requested $24 mil to help farmers.....

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

USDA 24 May 2020: 1st corn condition 70% G-E (2nd lowest in 6 yrs) vs average 73%; emergence 64% vs avg 58%. Need more sunshine ....

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

... after early planting. Corn & soybean planting ahead of avg. Spring wheat planting still behind avg. Winter wheat G-E +2% to 54%

 

Stocks rally as Dow breaks above key resistance at 25,000 & approaching the 100-day moving average. S&P broke above 3,000. DOW Betting on a vaccine...

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

 Economy reopening & spending increases, but we need to avoid a 2nd wave of COVID-19.

 

China will work to implement Phase 1 trade deal with US despite COVID-19 setbacks; and will abandon growth target due to uncertainty & boost stimulus

Friday, May 22, 2020

They aim to boost economic & trade cooperation with other countries. 

 

With 1 week left before June, it does not look like the 2020 spring wheat acres will get planted in the largest state ND. Need dry weather ....

Thursday, May 21, 2020

.... for next few weeks to dry out soils. lt looks like a lot of prevent plant acres in ND.

 

Kansas Wheat Commission 3-day crop tour by Kansas St Univ estimated north-central Kansas HRW wheat yields at 41.1 bpa and 51.7 bpa in the northwest...

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

..... Variable on Day 1! Drought, freeze damage and stripe rust weigh on the 2020 crop, supporting futures

 

USDA COVID-19 assistance program CFAP to provide $16 bil in relief to US farmers & ranchers. Farmers to Families Food Box program will purchase .....

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

..... $3 billion in fresh produce, dairy & meat. May 26 onwards, USDA FSA will accept applications from producers who suffered losses.

 

CFTC net managed money (for week May 12) saw serious buying in oilseeds vs. sell-off in grains (except oats). Funds preferring soybeans vs corn? ...

Friday, May 15, 2020

..... Cattle saw strong fund buying, hogs too but muted.

 

USDA's May WASDE- US 20/21 new crop maybe the biggest we see for the crop year. IEG Vantage (Informa) is projecting lower acreage for corn, ....

Thursday, May 14, 2020

.... spring wheat & cotton, but soybeans gain. Expect USDA downgrades as we go further into the cropping season? 

 

2020 USDA MAY Crop Report better than expected corn, bullish soys & bearish wheat but global numbers weighing on corn/wheat

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

USDA sees 2020 U.S. production of corn and soybeans rising substantially over the 2019 levels. USDA ending stock for 2019/20 and 2020/21: Old crop corn well below expectations but soybeans well above. Wheat larger in both years, but new crop soybeans lower than expected. New crop corn right around the trade guess. Trade estimates for U.S. wheat were pretty close to what the USDA reported at a 1.866-billion-bushel crop and the smallest in 3 years.

USDA’s global ending stocks came in much higher than trade expectations for both years for corn and wheat and for old crop soybeans. New crop soybeans were well below expectations even with a new crop at 131 mmt in Brazil. China’s soy consumption seen rising 7.2 mmt in 20/21.

USDA did not touch 2019/20 Argentina or Brazil corn production, but soybeans came down a collective 1.5 mmt. USDA also bumped 2018/19 Brazil soy to 119 mmt from 117 mmt.

5 U.S. Northern States were resurveyed in April due to corn still standing in the fields and it turns out that so far there was not much change in yields or harvested acreage. MI & WI -2 bpa, MN, ND, NC & SD -1 bpa. Net impact was a decline of 0.2 bpa for the U.S. corn yield and dropped the Dec 1 corn stocks only by 17 million bushels!

 

China announced list of 79 US produced goods that will be exempt from retaliatory import tariffs starting on May 19, 2020 & running thru May 18, 2021

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-tariffs/china-announces-new-tariff-waivers-for-some-u-s-imports-idUSKBN22O0MQ

 

USDA Crop Progress, 10 May- Winter wheat at 53% G-E is lowest so far this year. corn at 67% planted & soybeans at 38% ....

Monday, May 11, 2020

..... are behind trade expectations, but above average. Spring wheat at 42% planted, lagging behind average. 

 

Stats Canada 2020 spring planting intentions sees lower than expected canola acreage and higher wheat acreage. This along with tighter 19/20 stocks...

Thursday, May 7, 2020

.... makes the canola balance-sheet tighter. Good start to the new crop 20/21 marketing year!

 

North Dakota corn acres were expected to be 3.2 mil this year, off -8.6% Y/Y. But based on current conditions, their season maybe already over?.....

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

.... 2-3 more inches of rains fell recently & more in the forecast. Acres could fall below 1 million? Can't catch a break! 

 

President Trump's government officials suggest that they won’t seek to punishChina economically if they abide by Phase 1 trade commitments.....

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

.... made in January, despite U.S. allegations that China mishandled the COVID-19 outbreak.

 

IGC 20/21 world grain production down to 2.218 bil MT, -5 MMT vs March on global dry conditions. wheat down -0.5% to 764.4 MMT, corn +1 MMT to......

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

..... 1.158 bil MT, soybeans -0.4% to 364.4 MMT. Lower COVID-19 demand raise global grain stocks +1.9% to 616.5 MMT.

 

USDA as of May 3rd reported strong 2020 US planting! Soybeans at record 23% planted for this date. Corn +23 wk/wk to 51%, .....

Monday, May 4, 2020

.... which is up +30% Y/Y & +12% vs average.  Winter wheat 55% G-E, improved +1% wk/wk.

 

U.S. pork exports are on fire! So far in 2020, April saw the two highest weekly figures for US total pork sales and sales to China. .....

Thursday, April 30, 2020

... U.S. total pork sales to all countries at 1,044,44 MT is up +58% over last year! Will geopolitics derail this?

 

DOW jumps 500+ points as US top doctor Dr. Fauci said drug remdesivir shows clear-cut positive effect when treating COVID-19 ...

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

... This is despite US Q1 GDP dropping -4.8%, vs expected -3.5%. Also, US Fed pledges to keep interest rates low until full employment and inflation returns.

 

US weekly ethanol production fell another -4.6% to 537,000 bbl/day rate, but fall is slowing? Positive signs as stocks fall -4.9% off record-high....

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

According to EIA's weekly report on 29th April, dropping production & rising demand caused stocks to fall -4.9% off record-high to 1.105 bil gallons.Ethanol futures recover from bottom.

 

CFTC corn- trade est. for net short as of April 28 are -215,000, 2nd most net short for this time period; 2nd only to last year's record -322,215! ...

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

... CFTC corn net short according to the latest COT report is at -161,057 as of April 21.

 

USDA Crop Progress, April 26th- corn planting accelerates +20 wk/wk to 27% as Midwest farmers try to get max seed in the ground, keeping 2019's ......

Monday, April 27, 2020

..... wet fiasco in mind. Soybeans 8% planted, +6 wk/wk. Spring wheat 14% planted,+7 wk/wk. Winter wheat G-E deteriorates -3 to 54% G-E.

 

USDA pork belly values put in a V-shaped recovery, along with cutouts? An indicator that demand will return? 2H-2020 should be better than 1H-2020 ...

Friday, April 24, 2020

..... when the economy, & restaurants/food service, reopens gradually and carefully post-COVID? 

 

Priority #1 should be to get the still-imposed 25% Chinese tariff on U.S. pork removed & double exports to China!

Thursday, April 23, 2020

Even with a U.S./China trade deal commitment, US still has a 25% tariff on Chinese metals & China still has a 25% duty on U.S. pork.....

 

China preparing to buy 30 MMT of US Ag for state-held reserves. 20 MMT (787 mil bu) corn, 10 MMT (387 mil bu) soybeans, 1 MMT cotton. ...

Thursday, April 23, 2020

This more than offsets the loss in US ethanol demand of 600 mil bu! Now we need to reopen economy & get people driving & flying again!

 

Similar to pork, US beef cutouts soar. Near-term cattle futures low likely in, supporting V-shaped recovery? ...

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

... COVID-19 shut down processing plant capacity (10-20%), which lowers cattle slaughter, in turn reducing beef availability and raised beef prices. Cattle futures discount to cash is supportive. 

 

US pork cutout surge higher from COVID19 pressure- up +$24.15 since 15th April to $72.98 on 22nd April. This should encourage higher hog slaughter ...

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

.... at functioning packers and offset packing capacity loss (10%) due to closures. Demand continues to support pork prices.

 

USDA crop progress, April 19th: corn 7% planted, -2% vs. avg, soybeans 2% planted & winter wheat G-E fell -5% to 57%. More fuel for the wheat rally!

Monday, April 20, 2020

...Spring wheat planting lags. Could add to wheat's rally.

 

Crude oil drops to a record low below 0 at -$7.50 a barrel as a slump in demand & 0 storage space making it worthless.....

Monday, April 20, 2020

.... Maybe we should store crude oil in storage bins instead of of corn?

 

Wheat futures soar up .24 as Russia will suspend exports until July 1st when Q2 export quota is exhausted by mid-May

Monday, April 20, 2020

2020 Russian wheat crop pegged 77.2 MMT, off -2.4 MMT vs previous est.

It opens the door for higher U.S. & Canadian wheat demand.

Ukraine also threatening to ban exports if pace too high! Limit up on wheat futures is $0.55/bu.

The last time Russia banned wheat exports in 2010 wheat soared to $9-11/bu!

Add some dry weather in the coming months and smaller Black Sea wheat production and you have recipe for higher futures to ration demand most likely above the mid-Jan high and finally above $6.00/bu!

 

Dow stock index continues recovery for 4th consecutive week, closing above key weekly resistance & above 24,000. It opened gap up .,.

Friday, April 17, 2020

.... & the climb is +6,073 since low on 23rd March. Supported by positive COVID-19 drug trial 'news' & Trump's plans to re-open US economy.

 

A Chicago hospital treating COVID-19 patients with Remdesivir in a trial were recovering rapidly from severe symptoms. DOW futures rally 900 points...

Thursday, April 16, 2020

... after report says drug showing effectiveness against coronavirus.

 

USDA lowers US corn ethanol usage in April WASDE, ending stocks rise. Will this be the steepest reduction on account of COVID-19? ...

Thursday, April 9, 2020

....  By the time demand returns, more than 50% of US 200 ethanol plants may be idled/shutdown? Market attention turns to weather & seasonality.

2020 USDA APRIL WASDE 19/20 U.S. CROP ESTIMATES (Bil Bu)

U.S CARRYOUT USDA APRIL TRADE AVERAGE USDA MARCH
CORN 2.092 2.000 1.892
SOYBEANS 0.480 0.425 0.425
WHEAT 0.970 0.940 0.940

Source: USDA, QTPlus

 

China Ag ministry raised 19/20 corn import forecast +1 MMT to 4 MMT (USDA still at 7 MMT), on increase in shipments due to Phase 1 Trade Deal. ...

Thursday, April 9, 2020

.... & lowered 19/20 industrial use by -2 MMT to 82.5 MMT, due to lower oil prices & slowing economy.

 

EIA weekly ethanol output fell another -20% to record low levels, 672,000 bbl/day yields just 197 mil gallons ethanol weekly, ...

Thursday, April 9, 2020

.... consuming 68 mil bu feedstock. Blending collapses. Inventories up +5.3% wk/wk to 1.14 billion gallons, also record! Demand destruction in corn.

 

Crude oil jumps +12% as Saudi & Russia have removed obstacles to their agreement with a new oil deal to deepen cuts as much as 20 mil barrels per day.

Thursday, April 9, 2020

... Global demand has fallen as much as 30 mbd! U.S. gasoline demand is down over 51%!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/oil-jumps-ahead-of-make-or-break-opec-meeting.html

 

USDA weekly (Apr 2) export sales- blowout corn at 2.458 MMT. China bought 504,000 MT new crop corn, ...

Thursday, April 9, 2020

.... 186,000 MT sorghum, 144,000 MT old crop & 66,000 MT new crop soys, 38,700 MT pork & shipments of 16,300 MT pork.

 

Modello Group part of the brewing giant AB Inbev will shutter production of corona beer as the Mexican government deems the operation non essential!

Tuesday, April 7, 2020

...Lime demand set to plummet!

 

Saudi & Russia are close to deal on crude oil output cuts to reduce global glut. G20 nations including the U.S. may need to follow suit? ...

Monday, April 6, 2020

....Global oil demand plunged over 30 mil barrels per day equivalent for daily output of Russia, Saudi Arabia & U.S. combined.

 

U.S. EIA weekly ethanol production fell a record 17% wk/wk to 840K bbl/day, i.e. 247 mil gallons weekly consuming 86 mil bu of feedstock. Stocks rose

Friday, April 3, 2020

....+6.5% wk/wk to 1.08 bil gallons, a record! Crude oil recovery doesn't help demand but could put bottom for futures.

 

Crude oil soared +34% to today’s high for best day on record as Trump said Russia-Saudi o/p truce likely; & China to buy upto +100 mil barrels in '20?

Thursday, April 2, 2020

USDA stuns the market, reporting 2020 U.S. corn acres up +8% to 97 million acres!

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

The USDA/NASS farmer survey stunned the market with intended U.S. corn plantings of 96.99 million acres, up 8% on the year and up 3% from trade estimates. The high in the trade range was 97. Corn acres are set to rise over last year in every major state except Kansas, North Dakota, and Kentucky.

All U.S. wheat plantings came in lower than trade estimates at 44.66 vs. expected at 44.98 and total 2020 U.S. soybeans coming in at 83.810 vs. expected at 84.87 million acres.

Quarterly grain stocks report for corn was better at 7.953 seeing some disappearance during the quarter while soybeans slightly higher at 2.253 and wheat also slightly lower at 1.142 billion bushels. Cotton acres surprised at 13.700 up 1 million vs. pre-report estimates at 12.700.

 

Ontario farmers plan on planting record corn acres in 2020 at 2,380,146 million acres according to a Farms.com Risk Management survey!

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Canola futures soar on reports that China will resume buying from Canada. $2 billion worth of trade comes back to life?....

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

.... During COVID-19, China’s oilseed processors struggle with the lowest soybean stocks since 2010? 

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/china-to-resume-imports-of-canadian-canola-sources

 

Major wheat exporters Ukraine & Russia stocks-to-use ratio at multi-year lows & falling. Global wheat prices soar. ....

Monday, March 30, 2020

... Russia mulling over limiting Russian grain exports to 7 mmt in April-June. UN FAO warning of possible global food shortage if COVID-19 extends for long. 

 

1 mil unharvested 19/20 canola acres left in Manitoba & Saskatchewan will not be harvested & will be just burned down. ........

Friday, March 27, 2020

.....It will amount to a small dent of approx 40 mil bushels, but nonetheless tightens the beginning stocks for 20/21, when we are already reducing acreage.

 

In next week's USDA planting intentions report, trade 20/21 U.S. corn acreage to be higher than USDA's Feb outlook numbers; soybeans....

Thursday, March 26, 2020

...... to be lower & wheat to be similar. The new crop soybean/corn ratio is at 2.394, marginally favouring more corn?

 

Data shows air pollution increasing in China post lockdown- nitrogen dioxide levels are rising as the economy is slowly getting back on track....

Thursday, March 26, 2020

.....Besides the reality that the pollution issue is resurfacing, a silver lining could be that the economy is slowly getting back on its feet?

 

COVID19 took 67 days from first reported to reach 100,000 cases, 11 days for 2nd 100K, 4 days for 3rd 100K & just 3 days for 4th 100K! ....

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

WHO said its possible to change the trajectory by continuing rigorous testing & contact-tracing. What matters most is what we do now!

 

Sharply lower ethanol demand will reduce the supply of DDG, for export to China. This will increase demand for soybean meal, futures spiking......

Monday, March 23, 2020

... Chinese feed demand is rebuilding following their own coronavirus disruption and supplies on hand have grown tight in the north.

 

We may be looking at a 4-5 MMT drop in the 19/20 South American corn crop & a 9-10 MMT drop in soybean crop, due to dry weather ........

Friday, March 20, 2020

.....Dry weather in South America has wiped away the previously expected record production numbers.

 

Concerns over persistent dryness in key US wheat regions & ideas that COVID-19 will lead to rolling back of trade tariffs limited pressure on wheat...

Thursday, March 19, 2020

.... EU & UK SRW wheat production forecasts were lowered & rumors China is buying US Ag?

 

2020 USDA Feb. Crop Report a dud with no big surprises and mostly neutral BUT ....

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

USDA did increase the 19/20 Brazil soybean crop to a massive record 125 mmt from 123 last month. Global ending stocks for corn was lower than January but soybeans were up 2 mmt and wheat slightly lower.

USDA reduced U.S. 2019/20 ending stocks for wheat and soybeans (increase in exports for both), while corn stocks stayed the same at 1,892 billion bushels (reduction in exports offset by increase in use for ethanol). Production for all was left unchanged.

 

Crude oil prices could plunge even further after last weeks OPEC meeting Russia refused to cut production further

Monday, February 10, 2020

Higher to record U.S. shale production and oil demand destruction from coronavirus fears has led crude oil prices to plunge over $15/barrel thus far in 2020 and is on target to fall even further and test the $45 - $46 support level not seen since December of 2018!

As the world’s largest oil consumer, a slowdown in China’s economy suddenly has a real potential of impacting oi demand growth by as much as 20% in the 1st quarter but could be short-lived as flu season peaks and comes to an end as temps start tow warm up. OPEC now has to contend with U.S. shale growth and a short-term impact on demand.

 At last weeks emergency meeting OPED had hoped to cut production by an additional 600,000 bpd but Russia refused to participate ahead of next meeting in March.

 

U.S pork belly values' rocky start to 2020 continues. It is trying to put together a comeback, which will in turn support pork cutouts? ...

Friday, February 7, 2020

... Strong domestic demand for flavourful meat & exports remain the key!

 

Palm oil futures are trying to consolidate & attempt a comeback, trying to break above resistance. Stronger palm oil will support canola futures, ...

Friday, February 7, 2020

.... on its own recovery climb higher.

 

Stats Canada grain stocks report for Dec. 31, 2019, surprised on canola, oats & barley to the downside, but higher on all wheat stocks. ...

Wednesday, February 5, 2020

.... There are still unharvested acres in Western Canada, hence ending stocks could fall further in future reports? 

 

After 60 days of waiting for Jan USDA reports, what a disappointment but 19/20 U.S. corn ending stocks are trending lower...

Monday, January 13, 2020

.... - 165 days of supply, Feb. should be lower after lower Quarterly stocks & global stocks down for 4th year - 34 days of supply - a 19-year low!

 

China's Vice-Premier Liu He to bring a trade delegation to Washington this week & expected to sign a phase 1 trade deal....

Monday, December 30, 2019

Deal details expected to be released then- expectations for significant Ag purchase ($40-$50 bil/year for the next 2 yrs?)

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/30/liu-he-to-sign-phase-one-trade-deal-in-washinton-this-week.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail

 

China's Finance Ministry said they will lower import tariffs on over 850 products starting from January 1, 2020

Monday, December 23, 2019

The removal will cover frozen pork and avocados, and some IT products 

 

2019 USDA Nov. crop report friendly corn and wheat vs. expectations, disappointing soybeans

Friday, November 8, 2019

As part of the snowfall in early October, USDA says that the resurvey in North Dakota and Minnesota did not suggest any changes to harvested area at this time so both corn and soybean harvested acres were left unchanged.

Soybean 19/20 ending stocks were up 15 million to 475 and worse than expected at 430. Yields and exports were left unchanged, crush down 15 million.

U.S. 19/20 corn ending stocks lower than last month down 19 million bushels but higher than expected at 1.820. Corn exports down 50, ethanol/feed & residual both down 25 each. U.S. corn yields drop 1.4 bpa to 167 vs. last month at 168.4.

All wheat 19/20 ending stocks down 29 million bushels vs. last month at 1,014 billion bushels with spring wheat production down 37 million. Seed down 7, food down 5 and yields up 0.1 to 51.7. 

World corn stocks for 19/20 come in well below trade expectations. Looks like a drop in the U.S. and a few reductions elsewhere. Soybeans and wheat up slightly from October.

 

China and the U.S. has agreed to cancel existing trade tariffs in phases

Thursday, November 7, 2019

Fresh hopes that a "Phase 1" trade deal will be signed in early December sent stock and commodity markets higher to start the day.

The proportion of tariffs on each side will be cancelled together; it is unclear if soybeans will find relief. There are indications that US poultry may be allowed into China for the first time since 2015.

The Trump administration has been putting increasing pressure on Beijing to curb massive subsidies to state-owned companies and stop the forced transfer of American technology to Chinese firms.

Analysts remain skeptical that a “phase one” trade deal will effectively tackle these issues, suggesting the two economic giants will need a more comprehensive agreement before market sentiment can be boosted sustainably.

 

Canada's Pork Council reports that issues that plagued pork exports to China have been resolved

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Expects more detailed information from the Canadian government soon.

 

USDA 2019 October Crop Report a bullish surprise for soybeans, bearish corn and wheat vs. expectations

Thursday, October 10, 2019

U.S. production is lower than in September, but by less than expected for corn and more than expected for soybeans. The 2019 US corn yield comes in at 168.4 market expected 167.5 last month 168.2 while soybean yields were dropped to 46.9 vs. last month at 47.9 and expected at 47.3.

USDA lowers 2019/20 ending stocks for U.S. corn at 1.962 billion but it much higher than expected but much lower for soybeans at 460 (game changing if we can get an interim or mini China/US trade deal this weekend) and an increase for wheat at 1.043 billion bushels. 

USDA lowers 2019/20 ending stocks for U.S. corn and soybeans, but makes an increase for wheat.

USDA cut 2019/20 world stocks for corn and soybeans but increased the supply of wheat.


 

USDA confirms largest US pork sale EVER to China in the week ended Oct. 3 at were largest EVER at 142,172 mt!

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Pork prices in China have soared over 139% in 2019.

 

According to Reuters , a US Chamber of Commerce official suggested potential for currency agreement in exchange for delay tariff increases

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Reports are the Chinese delegation is leaving early, but with continued Chinese ag purchases?

 

Financial Times- China offering to increase U.S. Ag purchases, soybean purchases up to 30 MMT from current 20 MMT,....

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

.... to ensure an interim trade agreement. Short-term bullish soybeans. "The extra purchases would be equivalent to about $3.25bn of orders at current rates."

https://www.ft.com/content/a24f6948-ea77-11e9-85f4-d00e5018f061

 

U.S. 'giant' biofuel package- EPA to reallocate small-refiner-exempted (SRE) gallons & get corn ethanol mandates back to min. 15 bil gallons;.........

Monday, October 7, 2019

..... gov't to fund infrastructure & streamline policy for existing pumps to better-support E-15. Original RFS back on track?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biofuels/trump-administration-promises-biofuel-boost-to-hard-hit-farmers-idUSKBN1WJ19P

 

Reuters- Sources suggest the White House is nearing a finalized biofuel agreement, hoping to get it signed by the end of this week and ......

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

2019 USDA September Stocks and Small Grains reports a bullish surprise for corn, soys but neutral wheat.

Monday, September 30, 2019

Both corn and soy stocks came in below the lowest trade estimates. USDA reduced the 2018 soybean harvest by 116 million bushels and yield came down by 1 bpa. Final U.S. wheat production comes in just short of the guess at 1.962 billion bushels but NASS will resurvey several states in the coming weeks as a significant portion of the spring grain harvest was incomplete. Those results will be shown in the Nov. 8 crop production report.  This provides great momentum trend change higher as we head into the 2019 USDA October crop report on Oct. 10, 2019.  

Corn up 10, soys up 18, Canola up 6, Chicago wheat up 3, KC up 5, MN up 3, cotton -.09

 

In a gesture of goodwill ahead of trade talks in October, China will lift punitive tariffs on US soybean and US pork....

Friday, September 13, 2019

USDA reported private sale of 204,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2019/2020 marketing year out of a possible 600,000 mt rumored. Look for more announcements on Monday. 

After gapping higher $3.00/cwt limit yesterday on hog futures 2019 December futures is limit up $4.50 and is offered synthetically at $70.70, $2.00 over expanded limits!

 

USDA Sept 2019 WASDE, 19/20 U.S. corn (168.2 bpa) & soybean (47.9) yields lower than Aug, but above trade guess. Report was market-friendly.....

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Corn yield came in at 168.2 bpa vs. 169.5 in Aug & 167.2 expected. soybean yield came in at 47.9 bpa vs. 48.5 Aug. & 47.2 expected. Acreages were unchanged. 

19/20 U.S. ending stocks for soybeans come in below trade guesses on increased old-crop exports and a smaller harvest. Corn came in a little higher, as old-crop exports were reduced. New-crop corn and bean exports unchanged. Wheat came in as expected, exports unchanged. 
19/20 U.S. ending stocks for soybeans come in below trade guesses on increased old-crop exports and a smaller harvest. Corn came in a little higher, as old-crop exports were reduced. New-crop corn and bean exports unchanged. Wheat came in as expected, exports unchanged. 

U.S. corn ear populations are the lowest since at least 2012. Implied ear weight is lowest since 2015, well above 2013, and looks like just above 2014. Below the past three years, though. 

USDA NASS objective yield survey for U.S. soybeans found the fewest pods since at least 2012, but massively large implied pod weights.

18/19 old-crop world ending stocks for corn and wheat increased from August while soybeans decreased. Corn and beans down from Aug in 19/20 but wheat up.

 

USDA reported as of Sept 4 2019 US corn prevent plant acres at 11.414 (prev 11.211); US soybean prevent plant acres at 4.460 (prev 4.351);......

Thursday, September 12, 2019

 and US wheat prevent plant acres at 2.215 (prev 2.209).

 

2019 4th Annual Great ON Yield Tour Final yield results - Corn is 173.2 bpa & soybeans at 43.6 bpa!

Thursday, August 29, 2019

2019 4th Annual Great ON Yield Tour Final yield results were released at Western Final Wrap Up Event, COFS, Woodstock, Canada, on August 29th, 2019. Corn 173.2 bpa & soybeans at 43.6 bpa! Both down from last year's record highs. Corn still above OMAFRA (Stats Canada) 5-year high at 164.6 & soybeans below 5-year avg 46.8.

 

2019 Pro Farmer tour, avg 2019 U.S. Corn yield at 163.3 bpa vs. USDA at 169.5 bpa; Soybeans avg U.S. yield at 46.1 bpa vs. USDA at 48.5 bpa...

Friday, August 23, 2019

2019 Pro Farmer tour pegged average 2019 US Corn yields at 163.3 bpa, that compares to the USDA estimate at 169.5 bpa; 2019 Production is forecast by the tour at 13.358 billion bushels that compares to the USDA forecast at 13.901 bln bu. Soybeans 3.497 billion bu vs. USDA at 3.68 bil bu, yield 46.1 bpa vs. USDA at 48.5 bpa.

Minnesota Corn yield at 170.3 bpa. vs. 178.6 last year and compares to the August USDA estimate of 173.0 bpa. Minnesota Soybean pod count came in at 965.3 vs. 1,090.4 last year and compares to the three year avg. of 1,072.6. Iowa Corn yield was estimated at 182.8 bpa. vs. 188.2 last year and compares to the August USDA estimate of 191.0 bpa.  Iowa Soybean count 1,106.9 vs. 1,208.9 last year and the three year average of 1,175.4.   

 

2019 ProFarmer Midwest Crop Tour, Day 3, IL & west IA, highlight a down year with lots of immature crop that is racing the clock to make it home...

Thursday, August 22, 2019

The 2019 Pro Farmer crop tour yield reports haven’t uncovered any disasters yet but highlight a down year with lots of immature crop that is racing the clock to make it home.  Soybean pod counts were down from year ago levels and the 3 year average but those counts have the potential still to increase with favorable weather before waning daylight hours shut development down.

 

2019 ProFarmer Midwest Crop Tour, Day 2, IN & NE, there are issues & yields are lower than USDA's, but no disaster yet....

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

2019 ProFarmer Midwest Crop Tour has first-hand reports of variability, prevent plant and immaturity. State-by-state yield projections from the tour continue to suggest issues but no disaster yet. Scouts were in the key "I" states today

 

2019 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour, Day 1 results, OH & SD corn yield lower vs. '18 tour & '19 USDA Aug WASDE....

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Soybean pod counts too, after day 1, were lower Y/Y & vs. 3 Yr. Avg. Because of the specific routes taken by the Pro Farmer crop scouts and their methodology their numbers are best analyzed relative to past crop tour averages rather than compared directly to the USDA estimates. 

 

DTN Digital Crop Tour forecast corn yield at 163.2 bpa vs. USDA at 169.4 & soys at 44.2 4.3 lower than the USDA

Sunday, August 18, 2019

DTN Digital Crop Tour in IL, IN & OH is forecasting lower corn and soybean yields that are 8 -16% lower than the USDA August crop report. 

Gro’s models for corn show a statewide average of 182 bushels per acre in Nebraska and 149 bpa in South Dakota. USDA pegged those states at 186 bpa and 157 bpa, respectively.

Gro forecasts Nebraska soybean growers will harvest 56 bpa compared to USDA’s 58 bpa estimate, while South Dakota farmers will harvest 37 bpa compared to USDA’s 45 bpa estimate.

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2019/08/16/day-4-national-average-corn-yield-2
Gro forecasts Nebraska soybean growers will harvest 56 bpa compared to USDA’s 58 bpa estimate, while South Dakota farmers will harvest 37 bpa compared to USDA’s 45 bpa estimate.

 

A large fire at Tyson beef packing plant Garden City, KS processed 6,000 head/day will be shut down. Cattle weights up, cash lower, futures limit down

Monday, August 12, 2019

USDA August Crop Report bearish corn, bullish soybeans neutral wheat

Monday, August 12, 2019

USDA reported more than expected 2019 corn planted, harvested, yields and ending stocks but lower than expected planted, harvested and ending stocks in soybeans. This was a corn report. 2019/20 corn ending stocks up 171 million bushels vs. last month to 2,181 billion bushels. Corn limit down 25, soybeans down 13 and wheat down 25.

U.S. farmers reported record numbers of prevented acres for corn (at 11.21 mil acres) and soybeans (4.35 mil acres), but it was well off record for wheat (at 2.21 mil acres). Total prevent acres over all the crops total 19.3 million.

 

USDA’s June hogs & pigs report the U.S. hog inventory expanding a bit more than trade expected and neutral to bearish, but futures priced it in?

Thursday, June 27, 2019

futures might have it all priced in after the plunge in the past month! The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report posted an increase of 4% in all inventory on June 1. Overall inventory levels increased 1% from March 1, as year-to-year growth in the hog herd continues to be consistent with previous plans. The 69.1 million head of market hog inventory is the largest June 1 total since estimates began in 1964, leaving concern that additional growth will continue over the near future. Even though farrowing intentions are down slightly from a year ago, numbers are 3% above 2017 levels, creating expectations of continued large supplies through the near future.

 

Stats Canada acreage June 2019 report showed Canola acres at 20.952 vs. 20.7 expected. Wheat acreage lower than expected, spring wheat 18.772 mil ....

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Stats Can acreage June 2019 report showed Canola acres at 20.952 vs. 20.7 expected and 22.7 last year. Wheat acreage estimates were lower than expectations. Spring wheat acreage was pegged at 18.772 mil acres. Durum wheat acreage was expected to be a little larger than the Spring's intention number of 5.02 mil, but it actually came in a bit lower at 4.894 mil. All wheat acres for 2019 was expected to come in higher than the Spring intentions number of 24.8 mil. Average guess was around 25.7 mil (around 1 mil higher than last year's 24.7345 mil). Not only did it come in lower than expectations, it came in below last year as Stats Can pegged All wheat acres for 2019 at 24.595 mil.

 

China will block all meat products shipped from Canada & is the 3rd largest market for Canadian pork. China said........

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

 ....... investigation surrounding feed additive ractopamine in Canadian meat shipments turned up 188 inauthentic veterinary health certificates.

https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/agriculture/update-1-china-to-stop-all-imports-of-meat-products-from-canada-on-wednesday-media-report

 

U.S. Crop Conditions, as of 23rd June, 2019, Fall due to Wet Conditions, 12.7 Million U.S. Soybean Acres Left to Plant!

Monday, June 24, 2019