Below are the latest news updates from Risk Management

Crude oil soared +34% to today’s high for best day on record as Trump said Russia-Saudi o/p truce likely; & China to buy upto +100 mil barrels in '20?

Thursday, April 2, 2020

USDA stuns the market, reporting 2020 U.S. corn acres up +8% to 97 million acres!

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

The USDA/NASS farmer survey stunned the market with intended U.S. corn plantings of 96.99 million acres, up 8% on the year and up 3% from trade estimates. The high in the trade range was 97. Corn acres are set to rise over last year in every major state except Kansas, North Dakota, and Kentucky.

All U.S. wheat plantings came in lower than trade estimates at 44.66 vs. expected at 44.98 and total 2020 U.S. soybeans coming in at 83.810 vs. expected at 84.87 million acres.

Quarterly grain stocks report for corn was better at 7.953 seeing some disappearance during the quarter while soybeans slightly higher at 2.253 and wheat also slightly lower at 1.142 billion bushels. Cotton acres surprised at 13.700 up 1 million vs. pre-report estimates at 12.700.


Ontario farmers plan on planting record corn acres in 2020 at 2,380,146 million acres according to a Risk Management survey!

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Canola futures soar on reports that China will resume buying from Canada. $2 billion worth of trade comes back to life?....

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

.... During COVID-19, China’s oilseed processors struggle with the lowest soybean stocks since 2010?


Major wheat exporters Ukraine & Russia stocks-to-use ratio at multi-year lows & falling. Global wheat prices soar. ....

Monday, March 30, 2020

... Russia mulling over limiting Russian grain exports to 7 mmt in April-June. UN FAO warning of possible global food shortage if COVID-19 extends for long. 


1 mil unharvested 19/20 canola acres left in Manitoba & Saskatchewan will not be harvested & will be just burned down. ........

Friday, March 27, 2020

.....It will amount to a small dent of approx 40 mil bushels, but nonetheless tightens the beginning stocks for 20/21, when we are already reducing acreage.


In next week's USDA planting intentions report, trade 20/21 U.S. corn acreage to be higher than USDA's Feb outlook numbers; soybeans....

Thursday, March 26, 2020

...... to be lower & wheat to be similar. The new crop soybean/corn ratio is at 2.394, marginally favouring more corn?


Data shows air pollution increasing in China post lockdown- nitrogen dioxide levels are rising as the economy is slowly getting back on track....

Thursday, March 26, 2020

.....Besides the reality that the pollution issue is resurfacing, a silver lining could be that the economy is slowly getting back on its feet?


COVID19 took 67 days from first reported to reach 100,000 cases, 11 days for 2nd 100K, 4 days for 3rd 100K & just 3 days for 4th 100K! ....

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

WHO said its possible to change the trajectory by continuing rigorous testing & contact-tracing. What matters most is what we do now!


Sharply lower ethanol demand will reduce the supply of DDG, for export to China. This will increase demand for soybean meal, futures spiking......

Monday, March 23, 2020

... Chinese feed demand is rebuilding following their own coronavirus disruption and supplies on hand have grown tight in the north.


We may be looking at a 4-5 MMT drop in the 19/20 South American corn crop & a 9-10 MMT drop in soybean crop, due to dry weather ........

Friday, March 20, 2020

.....Dry weather in South America has wiped away the previously expected record production numbers.


Concerns over persistent dryness in key US wheat regions & ideas that COVID-19 will lead to rolling back of trade tariffs limited pressure on wheat...

Thursday, March 19, 2020

.... EU & UK SRW wheat production forecasts were lowered & rumors China is buying US Ag?


2020 USDA Feb. Crop Report a dud with no big surprises and mostly neutral BUT ....

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

USDA did increase the 19/20 Brazil soybean crop to a massive record 125 mmt from 123 last month. Global ending stocks for corn was lower than January but soybeans were up 2 mmt and wheat slightly lower.

USDA reduced U.S. 2019/20 ending stocks for wheat and soybeans (increase in exports for both), while corn stocks stayed the same at 1,892 billion bushels (reduction in exports offset by increase in use for ethanol). Production for all was left unchanged.


Crude oil prices could plunge even further after last weeks OPEC meeting Russia refused to cut production further

Monday, February 10, 2020

Higher to record U.S. shale production and oil demand destruction from coronavirus fears has led crude oil prices to plunge over $15/barrel thus far in 2020 and is on target to fall even further and test the $45 - $46 support level not seen since December of 2018!

As the world’s largest oil consumer, a slowdown in China’s economy suddenly has a real potential of impacting oi demand growth by as much as 20% in the 1st quarter but could be short-lived as flu season peaks and comes to an end as temps start tow warm up. OPEC now has to contend with U.S. shale growth and a short-term impact on demand.

 At last weeks emergency meeting OPED had hoped to cut production by an additional 600,000 bpd but Russia refused to participate ahead of next meeting in March.


U.S pork belly values' rocky start to 2020 continues. It is trying to put together a comeback, which will in turn support pork cutouts? ...

Friday, February 7, 2020

... Strong domestic demand for flavourful meat & exports remain the key!


Palm oil futures are trying to consolidate & attempt a comeback, trying to break above resistance. Stronger palm oil will support canola futures, ...

Friday, February 7, 2020

.... on its own recovery climb higher.


Stats Canada grain stocks report for Dec. 31, 2019, surprised on canola, oats & barley to the downside, but higher on all wheat stocks. ...

Wednesday, February 5, 2020

.... There are still unharvested acres in Western Canada, hence ending stocks could fall further in future reports? 


After 60 days of waiting for Jan USDA reports, what a disappointment but 19/20 U.S. corn ending stocks are trending lower...

Monday, January 13, 2020

.... - 165 days of supply, Feb. should be lower after lower Quarterly stocks & global stocks down for 4th year - 34 days of supply - a 19-year low!


China's Vice-Premier Liu He to bring a trade delegation to Washington this week & expected to sign a phase 1 trade deal....

Monday, December 30, 2019

Deal details expected to be released then- expectations for significant Ag purchase ($40-$50 bil/year for the next 2 yrs?)


China's Finance Ministry said they will lower import tariffs on over 850 products starting from January 1, 2020

Monday, December 23, 2019

The removal will cover frozen pork and avocados, and some IT products 


2019 USDA Nov. crop report friendly corn and wheat vs. expectations, disappointing soybeans

Friday, November 8, 2019

As part of the snowfall in early October, USDA says that the resurvey in North Dakota and Minnesota did not suggest any changes to harvested area at this time so both corn and soybean harvested acres were left unchanged.

Soybean 19/20 ending stocks were up 15 million to 475 and worse than expected at 430. Yields and exports were left unchanged, crush down 15 million.

U.S. 19/20 corn ending stocks lower than last month down 19 million bushels but higher than expected at 1.820. Corn exports down 50, ethanol/feed & residual both down 25 each. U.S. corn yields drop 1.4 bpa to 167 vs. last month at 168.4.

All wheat 19/20 ending stocks down 29 million bushels vs. last month at 1,014 billion bushels with spring wheat production down 37 million. Seed down 7, food down 5 and yields up 0.1 to 51.7. 

World corn stocks for 19/20 come in well below trade expectations. Looks like a drop in the U.S. and a few reductions elsewhere. Soybeans and wheat up slightly from October.


China and the U.S. has agreed to cancel existing trade tariffs in phases

Thursday, November 7, 2019

Fresh hopes that a "Phase 1" trade deal will be signed in early December sent stock and commodity markets higher to start the day.

The proportion of tariffs on each side will be cancelled together; it is unclear if soybeans will find relief. There are indications that US poultry may be allowed into China for the first time since 2015.

The Trump administration has been putting increasing pressure on Beijing to curb massive subsidies to state-owned companies and stop the forced transfer of American technology to Chinese firms.

Analysts remain skeptical that a “phase one” trade deal will effectively tackle these issues, suggesting the two economic giants will need a more comprehensive agreement before market sentiment can be boosted sustainably.


Canada's Pork Council reports that issues that plagued pork exports to China have been resolved

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Expects more detailed information from the Canadian government soon.


USDA 2019 October Crop Report a bullish surprise for soybeans, bearish corn and wheat vs. expectations

Thursday, October 10, 2019

U.S. production is lower than in September, but by less than expected for corn and more than expected for soybeans. The 2019 US corn yield comes in at 168.4 market expected 167.5 last month 168.2 while soybean yields were dropped to 46.9 vs. last month at 47.9 and expected at 47.3.

USDA lowers 2019/20 ending stocks for U.S. corn at 1.962 billion but it much higher than expected but much lower for soybeans at 460 (game changing if we can get an interim or mini China/US trade deal this weekend) and an increase for wheat at 1.043 billion bushels. 

USDA lowers 2019/20 ending stocks for U.S. corn and soybeans, but makes an increase for wheat.

USDA cut 2019/20 world stocks for corn and soybeans but increased the supply of wheat.


USDA confirms largest US pork sale EVER to China in the week ended Oct. 3 at were largest EVER at 142,172 mt!

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Pork prices in China have soared over 139% in 2019.


According to Reuters , a US Chamber of Commerce official suggested potential for currency agreement in exchange for delay tariff increases

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Reports are the Chinese delegation is leaving early, but with continued Chinese ag purchases?


Financial Times- China offering to increase U.S. Ag purchases, soybean purchases up to 30 MMT from current 20 MMT,....

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

.... to ensure an interim trade agreement. Short-term bullish soybeans. "The extra purchases would be equivalent to about $3.25bn of orders at current rates."


U.S. 'giant' biofuel package- EPA to reallocate small-refiner-exempted (SRE) gallons & get corn ethanol mandates back to min. 15 bil gallons;.........

Monday, October 7, 2019

..... gov't to fund infrastructure & streamline policy for existing pumps to better-support E-15. Original RFS back on track?


Reuters- Sources suggest the White House is nearing a finalized biofuel agreement, hoping to get it signed by the end of this week and ......

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

2019 USDA September Stocks and Small Grains reports a bullish surprise for corn, soys but neutral wheat.

Monday, September 30, 2019

Both corn and soy stocks came in below the lowest trade estimates. USDA reduced the 2018 soybean harvest by 116 million bushels and yield came down by 1 bpa. Final U.S. wheat production comes in just short of the guess at 1.962 billion bushels but NASS will resurvey several states in the coming weeks as a significant portion of the spring grain harvest was incomplete. Those results will be shown in the Nov. 8 crop production report.  This provides great momentum trend change higher as we head into the 2019 USDA October crop report on Oct. 10, 2019.  

Corn up 10, soys up 18, Canola up 6, Chicago wheat up 3, KC up 5, MN up 3, cotton -.09


In a gesture of goodwill ahead of trade talks in October, China will lift punitive tariffs on US soybean and US pork....

Friday, September 13, 2019

USDA reported private sale of 204,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2019/2020 marketing year out of a possible 600,000 mt rumored. Look for more announcements on Monday. 

After gapping higher $3.00/cwt limit yesterday on hog futures 2019 December futures is limit up $4.50 and is offered synthetically at $70.70, $2.00 over expanded limits!


USDA Sept 2019 WASDE, 19/20 U.S. corn (168.2 bpa) & soybean (47.9) yields lower than Aug, but above trade guess. Report was market-friendly.....

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Corn yield came in at 168.2 bpa vs. 169.5 in Aug & 167.2 expected. soybean yield came in at 47.9 bpa vs. 48.5 Aug. & 47.2 expected. Acreages were unchanged. 

19/20 U.S. ending stocks for soybeans come in below trade guesses on increased old-crop exports and a smaller harvest. Corn came in a little higher, as old-crop exports were reduced. New-crop corn and bean exports unchanged. Wheat came in as expected, exports unchanged. 
19/20 U.S. ending stocks for soybeans come in below trade guesses on increased old-crop exports and a smaller harvest. Corn came in a little higher, as old-crop exports were reduced. New-crop corn and bean exports unchanged. Wheat came in as expected, exports unchanged. 

U.S. corn ear populations are the lowest since at least 2012. Implied ear weight is lowest since 2015, well above 2013, and looks like just above 2014. Below the past three years, though. 

USDA NASS objective yield survey for U.S. soybeans found the fewest pods since at least 2012, but massively large implied pod weights.

18/19 old-crop world ending stocks for corn and wheat increased from August while soybeans decreased. Corn and beans down from Aug in 19/20 but wheat up.


USDA reported as of Sept 4 2019 US corn prevent plant acres at 11.414 (prev 11.211); US soybean prevent plant acres at 4.460 (prev 4.351);......

Thursday, September 12, 2019

 and US wheat prevent plant acres at 2.215 (prev 2.209).


2019 4th Annual Great ON Yield Tour Final yield results - Corn is 173.2 bpa & soybeans at 43.6 bpa!

Thursday, August 29, 2019

2019 4th Annual Great ON Yield Tour Final yield results were released at Western Final Wrap Up Event, COFS, Woodstock, Canada, on August 29th, 2019. Corn 173.2 bpa & soybeans at 43.6 bpa! Both down from last year's record highs. Corn still above OMAFRA (Stats Canada) 5-year high at 164.6 & soybeans below 5-year avg 46.8.


2019 Pro Farmer tour, avg 2019 U.S. Corn yield at 163.3 bpa vs. USDA at 169.5 bpa; Soybeans avg U.S. yield at 46.1 bpa vs. USDA at 48.5 bpa...

Friday, August 23, 2019

2019 Pro Farmer tour pegged average 2019 US Corn yields at 163.3 bpa, that compares to the USDA estimate at 169.5 bpa; 2019 Production is forecast by the tour at 13.358 billion bushels that compares to the USDA forecast at 13.901 bln bu. Soybeans 3.497 billion bu vs. USDA at 3.68 bil bu, yield 46.1 bpa vs. USDA at 48.5 bpa.

Minnesota Corn yield at 170.3 bpa. vs. 178.6 last year and compares to the August USDA estimate of 173.0 bpa. Minnesota Soybean pod count came in at 965.3 vs. 1,090.4 last year and compares to the three year avg. of 1,072.6. Iowa Corn yield was estimated at 182.8 bpa. vs. 188.2 last year and compares to the August USDA estimate of 191.0 bpa.  Iowa Soybean count 1,106.9 vs. 1,208.9 last year and the three year average of 1,175.4.   


2019 ProFarmer Midwest Crop Tour, Day 3, IL & west IA, highlight a down year with lots of immature crop that is racing the clock to make it home...

Thursday, August 22, 2019

The 2019 Pro Farmer crop tour yield reports haven’t uncovered any disasters yet but highlight a down year with lots of immature crop that is racing the clock to make it home.  Soybean pod counts were down from year ago levels and the 3 year average but those counts have the potential still to increase with favorable weather before waning daylight hours shut development down.


2019 ProFarmer Midwest Crop Tour, Day 2, IN & NE, there are issues & yields are lower than USDA's, but no disaster yet....

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

2019 ProFarmer Midwest Crop Tour has first-hand reports of variability, prevent plant and immaturity. State-by-state yield projections from the tour continue to suggest issues but no disaster yet. Scouts were in the key "I" states today


2019 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour, Day 1 results, OH & SD corn yield lower vs. '18 tour & '19 USDA Aug WASDE....

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Soybean pod counts too, after day 1, were lower Y/Y & vs. 3 Yr. Avg. Because of the specific routes taken by the Pro Farmer crop scouts and their methodology their numbers are best analyzed relative to past crop tour averages rather than compared directly to the USDA estimates. 


DTN Digital Crop Tour forecast corn yield at 163.2 bpa vs. USDA at 169.4 & soys at 44.2 4.3 lower than the USDA

Sunday, August 18, 2019

DTN Digital Crop Tour in IL, IN & OH is forecasting lower corn and soybean yields that are 8 -16% lower than the USDA August crop report. 

Gro’s models for corn show a statewide average of 182 bushels per acre in Nebraska and 149 bpa in South Dakota. USDA pegged those states at 186 bpa and 157 bpa, respectively.

Gro forecasts Nebraska soybean growers will harvest 56 bpa compared to USDA’s 58 bpa estimate, while South Dakota farmers will harvest 37 bpa compared to USDA’s 45 bpa estimate.
Gro forecasts Nebraska soybean growers will harvest 56 bpa compared to USDA’s 58 bpa estimate, while South Dakota farmers will harvest 37 bpa compared to USDA’s 45 bpa estimate.


A large fire at Tyson beef packing plant Garden City, KS processed 6,000 head/day will be shut down. Cattle weights up, cash lower, futures limit down

Monday, August 12, 2019

USDA August Crop Report bearish corn, bullish soybeans neutral wheat

Monday, August 12, 2019

USDA reported more than expected 2019 corn planted, harvested, yields and ending stocks but lower than expected planted, harvested and ending stocks in soybeans. This was a corn report. 2019/20 corn ending stocks up 171 million bushels vs. last month to 2,181 billion bushels. Corn limit down 25, soybeans down 13 and wheat down 25.

U.S. farmers reported record numbers of prevented acres for corn (at 11.21 mil acres) and soybeans (4.35 mil acres), but it was well off record for wheat (at 2.21 mil acres). Total prevent acres over all the crops total 19.3 million.


USDA’s June hogs & pigs report the U.S. hog inventory expanding a bit more than trade expected and neutral to bearish, but futures priced it in?

Thursday, June 27, 2019

futures might have it all priced in after the plunge in the past month! The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report posted an increase of 4% in all inventory on June 1. Overall inventory levels increased 1% from March 1, as year-to-year growth in the hog herd continues to be consistent with previous plans. The 69.1 million head of market hog inventory is the largest June 1 total since estimates began in 1964, leaving concern that additional growth will continue over the near future. Even though farrowing intentions are down slightly from a year ago, numbers are 3% above 2017 levels, creating expectations of continued large supplies through the near future.


Stats Canada acreage June 2019 report showed Canola acres at 20.952 vs. 20.7 expected. Wheat acreage lower than expected, spring wheat 18.772 mil ....

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Stats Can acreage June 2019 report showed Canola acres at 20.952 vs. 20.7 expected and 22.7 last year. Wheat acreage estimates were lower than expectations. Spring wheat acreage was pegged at 18.772 mil acres. Durum wheat acreage was expected to be a little larger than the Spring's intention number of 5.02 mil, but it actually came in a bit lower at 4.894 mil. All wheat acres for 2019 was expected to come in higher than the Spring intentions number of 24.8 mil. Average guess was around 25.7 mil (around 1 mil higher than last year's 24.7345 mil). Not only did it come in lower than expectations, it came in below last year as Stats Can pegged All wheat acres for 2019 at 24.595 mil.


China will block all meat products shipped from Canada & is the 3rd largest market for Canadian pork. China said........

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

 ....... investigation surrounding feed additive ractopamine in Canadian meat shipments turned up 188 inauthentic veterinary health certificates.


U.S. Crop Conditions, as of 23rd June, 2019, Fall due to Wet Conditions, 12.7 Million U.S. Soybean Acres Left to Plant!

Monday, June 24, 2019


Trump has directed members of his cabinet to review the administrations expanded use of waivers exempting small refiners from the nations biofuel.....

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Bullish 2019 June USDA WASDE: 19/20 US Corn yield down -10 bpa vs. last month to 166 bpa; corn acreage off -3 mil acres to 89.8 mil acres, ...........

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

19/20 US corn ending stocks off 0.81 bil bu vs. May to 1.675 bil bu. 

18/19 & 19/20 US soybean crops see ending stocks breaking above 1 bil bu, but many doubt those figures as USDA is yet to bake in the current US cropping struggles in the US soybeans balance-sheet. 


According to NASA the U.S. has had the wettest 12 months in 124 years of modern record-keeping

Thursday, May 30, 2019


According to StatsCan, poor soil moisture & forecasted dryness in 2019 Canadian wheat production by 1% to 33.7 MMT

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Soil moisture in Saskatchewan and Manitoba is currently at a 5-year low. 


USDA crop progress report as of 05-28-2019 projects U.S. corn planting at 58% vs. expected at 60-65% & soys at 29% vs. expected at 31%!

Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Look for the rally in grain futures to continue this week. SRW conditions good to excellent fall 5% to 61%.


Old crop 2019 July Corn Futures today broke above $4/bu- first break above $4 on the continuous nearby corn futures chart since last May!

Friday, May 24, 2019

This was a key resistance level for old crop corn futures, & this breach above is a bullish signal. Happy Friday!


Multiple news sources- US has agreed to remove aluminum & steel tariffs from Canadian & Mexican metal imports, likely within the next 48 hours....

Friday, May 17, 2019

Today, multiple news sources reported that the US has agreed to remove aluminum and steel tariffs from Canadian and Mexican metal imports, likely within the next 48 hours.


IEG Vantage (Informa) expects 2019 U.S. Corn acreage to fall to 90.7 mil acres vs USDA @ 92.792, Soybeans up to 86.4 mil vs USDA @ 84.617 mil.......

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

..... & spring Wheat to fall to 12.4 mil acres vs. USDA at 12.83 mil


2019 May USDA WASDE- not friendly, but futures more keen on trade deal news.19/20 U.S. corn carryout at a big 2.485 bil bu, soybeans close to 1 bil bu

Friday, May 10, 2019

...U.S. 19/20 wheat carryout higher Y/Y. 2019 U.S. wheat output at 1.897 bil bu was below trade expectations. 18/19 Brazil corn output higher at 100 MMT (from 96), Argentina higher at 49 MMT (from 47). All contributing to bigger world grain stocks!


U.S. President Trump said trade deal with China is still possible. He said Chinese President Xi Jinping wrote him a beautiful letter, and ......

Thursday, May 9, 2019

.........he'll probably speak to him (Xi) by phone.


Will Trump's 25% tariff ploy this weekend finally halt Chinese stalling, or will trade talks collapse? China's Vice-Premier Liu will travel to DC.....

Tuesday, May 7, 2019

China's Vice-Premier Liu will travel to Washington DC for talks on Thursday & Friday, which is a positive sign of engagement. Stay tuned!


Trudeau government set to boost cash advances for farmers as canola crisis drags on.....

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

The Trudeau government is expanding a federal loan guarantee program for farmers in response to Western Canada's canola crisis — more than doubling the maximum amount of money available to individual producers from $400,000 to 1 million.


Munchin trade rep. for Trump administration says that agreement with China could be signed in weeks....

Monday, April 29, 2019

With 95% complete can they close the deal? China wants a deal, Trump a win!


Canada's Prime Minister Trudeau said the government will definitely take more action in coming days in dispute with China and Canola

Monday, April 29, 2019

With funds record short 52,000 plus contracts some good news would be welcome. 


Reuters reports that President Trump, potentially setting the stage for trade deal, said he hopes to soon host China's leader at the White House

Friday, April 26, 2019

Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged for the 4th consecutive meeting & drops any reference to future increases..........

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Expects GDP growth at +1.2% in 19 & +2.0% in 2020 & 21. Canadian $ breaking down testing support at $0.74. Will there be new lows in the cards for the loonie?


Stats Canada 19 Planting Report surprises with much higher than expected all wheat acres 25.674 above the high end of the range vs. 24.80

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Spring wheat also much higher 19.387 vs. expected 17.311 and durum acres pegged at 5.021 vs. expected at 5.2 and 2018 at 6.18. 2019 canola acres came in lower than expectations at 21,214 but not as low as some thought as the tensions with China continue vs. expected at 21.8 and last year at 22.81 million acres. Soybean acres were lower at 5.646 vs. expected at 6.4 and last year at 6.32. Corn acres above at 3.795 vs. expected at 3.7 and last year 3.63.


China continues to buy U.S. pork despite a 62% tariff for 2nd consecutive week & 3 out of last 5 weeks totaling 124,300 tonnes...........

Thursday, April 18, 2019

........ bought from state owned entity to rebuild stock reserves. For the week ending Apr. 11 - 23.5 k is the 5th largest, last weeks 77 K was the largest ever


Wallstreet Journal reporting that China-US have agreed to set tentative timeline for next round of discussions, seek a deal by end of May

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

U.S. Trade Rep Lighthizer will travel to Beijing in week of April 29th,  while the Chinese envoy will travel to Washington in week of May 5th. Rumors abound that the Ag portion is complete & its $50 billion per year or $300 billion over 6 years double from 17!


Weekly USDA corn & soybean export sales (as of April 4th, '19) were uninspiring, but weekly U.S. pork sales spiked with China buying a big 77,700 tons

Thursday, April 11, 2019

..... (finally, after a couple of quiet weeks)!


USDA's changes to May '19 WASDE: The international tables for Crops to include “World less China". & .............

Tuesday, April 9, 2019

.......Price range forecasts will be eliminated in favor of single price points. The ordering of countries will be updated to eliminate outdated aggregations (such as “Former Soviet Union"),....


USDA April WASDE '19- no major surprises and only confirmed what trade already knew- US & global 18/19 grain ending stocks are “heavy”................

Tuesday, April 9, 2019

Grain prices had baked this in? Note- US 18/19 soybean ending stocks LOWERED by -5 mil bu to 895 mil bu!


2019 5th Annual Risk Management Ontario Planting Intentions Report final results corn acres record high up +5.78% at 2.279,514 million!

Monday, April 8, 2019

The largest increases are from Western, Central and Southern Ontario. 2019 soybean acres will remain above 3 million acres, up +0.10% Y/Y or up +3,222 acres, with a decline in Western Ontario offset by an increase in Southern Ontario. IP soybean acres will be up 13.21%. Total all wheat acres will be down 8.56% to 918,724 acres and below the 5-year average. The largest drop in wheat acreage is from Southern Ontario. Total SRW wheat acres come in at 681,000 acres.

Moe Agostino, Chief Commodity Strategist with Risk Management, says “record 2018 yields are outweighing any disease issues with VOM (DON) from 2018.” Steve Denys, Director of Business Management for Maizex Seeds, says “he is not surprised by the results as heavy clay areas like Essex and Lambton would switch to soybean acres, but everyone else would plant more corn acres.” He went on to say that, “Ontario farmers are making seed variety decisions in 2019, adjusting planting dates, population sizes and when to fungicide to minimize the impact of DON in their corn fields in 2019.”


Damage estimates continue to climb as Accuweather is forecasting property crop losses at $12.5 billion on par with hurricane Matthew & Irene

Monday, April 8, 2019

Report also highlights long-term health risks related to standing water and contaminated drinking water wells.

NOAA warns flood risk near U.S. Midwest rivers remains high given saturated soils and forecasting above average rainfall near-tern but does not expect long-term widespread flooding but moderate flooding is expected across MO, Southern Iowa and Eastern Kansas.


Weather forecasters forecasting round 2 of the “bomb cyclone” later this week, one of the strongest low-pressure systems of all time for U.S. Midwest

Monday, April 8, 2019

The hardest hit will be Northern Nebraska, Southern South Dakota and Southern half of Minnesota. 1-2 feet of snow expected with local levels at 30 inches and wind gusts as high as 50-60 mph and life threatening.


Grain markets weaker as a concrete timeline to end the trade war was not announced on Thursday. The market continues to await resolution

Friday, April 5, 2019

The lengthy review and approval of biotech crops is reportedly still a sticking point to end the trade conflict. 


According to Wallstreet Journal, Trump later today expected to announce upcoming date for summit with China's leader Xi

Thursday, April 4, 2019

It most likely will be for the end of April? Its the shot in the arm and boost that the ag markets need. 


Bloomberg report that there was a final push being made to reach a trade deal and that a Trump-Xi meeting could be announced as early as Thursday

Wednesday, April 3, 2019

The deal reportedly would give Beijing until 2025 to meet commitments on commodity purchases and allow US companies to wholly own enterprises in China as a binding pledge that can trigger retaliation from the US if left unfulfilled.  Other non-binding but not specifically mentioned promises China offered to implement by 2029 wouldn't be tied to US retaliation. The US is pushing for China to front-load a big chunk of the commodity purchases in the first two years of the agreement. 

Enforcement of the agreement is still being negotiated where the US wants the right to take unilateral, 'proportional' action against China if it fails to abide by the rules, China so far agreed only to contemplate not to retaliate if the US took action but stopped short of a formal pledge to refrain from countering.  Another remaining issue is the tariff

removal where 90- and 180-day benchmarks after signing could be used as benchmarks for Chinese compliance.  Last but not least, the location of a Trump-Xi signing ceremony where China would prefer a neutral third country. 


The World Trade Organization lowered their 2019 global trade growth forecast to 2.6% from the previous 3.7% expected growth

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

They noted 2018 growth in trade was 3% down from 4.6% in the prior year. We need a U.S./China trade deal soon and the goal reportedly is now to wrap up negotiations by the end of April.  The markets are tired of repeated deadlines that continually are moved back.


Gro Intelligence estimates that more that 1 million U.S. acres of farm ground over 9 states have been ravaged by flood in March

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Farms from the Dakotas to Missouri have been under water for a week or more, possibly impeding planting and damaging soil. The floods, which came just weeks before planting season starts in the Midwest, will likely reduce corn, wheat and soy production this year.

Nearly 1.1 million acres of cropland and more than 84,000 acres of pastureland in the U.S. Midwest had flood water on it for at least seven days between March 8 and March 21, according to a preliminary analysis of government and satellite data by New-York based Gro Intelligence at the request of Reuters. The flooded acreage represents less than 1% of U.S. land used to grow corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, cotton, sorghum and barley. Iowa, the top U.S. corn and No. 2 soy producing state, had the most water, covering 474,271 acres, followed by Missouri with 203,188 acres, according to Gro Intelligence. The satellite imaginary did not show the full extent of the flooding in Nebraska nor North Dakota, but we estimate a further 2- 3 million acres were damaged and perhaps lost.



2019 USDA March Planting & Grain Stocks Report bearish corn 92.72 million acres above expectations but bullish soybeans at 84.617 below

Friday, March 29, 2019

All US wheat acres down 2 mln acres from last year. Spring and durum came in well below expectations, wheat stocks above. U.S. planted acres. All wheat acres at low end of the range at 45.9 million and below expectations. U.S. March 1 stocks: corn above expectations and soybeans above expectations (record large).


The U.S. & China said they made progress in trade talks that concluded on Friday in Beijing that Washington called "candid and constructive"

Friday, March 29, 2019

The world's 2 largest economies try to resolve a nearly 9-month trade war.


USDA Mar. 1 hogs & pigs in line with expectations. Hogs & Pigs total inventory continues to grow, 2.1% higher Y/Y;.....

Thursday, March 28, 2019

.........pigs saved per litter a record high 10.7 for Dec.-Feb. period. A lack of Chinese buying, due to ASF, is weighing!


USDA farm Service agency has announced temporarily to allow grazing on CRP acres.

Wednesday, March 27, 2019

The Emergency grazing allowance is for all Nebraska counties until April 30th, 2019.


Bloomberg reports China may buy as much as 300,000 mt of US pork in '19, a record amount if realized.....

Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Some say China will need 2 MMT from the world. Trump is asking negotiators to ask for more than $1.2 trillion over 6 years that China offered to purchase in US goods!


Canada's Canola Council says members are reporting that Chinese importers are refusing to purchase canola seed at this time..........

Friday, March 22, 2019

China is not buying from any company now and its affecting all new sales. Futures are down 1.7% after bouncing from the lows 2 weeks ago. According to AAFC, 2019 care are now expected to fall to 9.0 million hectares because of an global oversupply and uncertainty over Chinese buying. 2019 production is forecast to fall to 19.8 Mt versus 20.3 Mt in 2018-19 and 21.3 Mt in 2017-18. 


USDA reported private sale of 300,000 metric tons of US corn for delivery to China during the 2018/2019 marketing year..........

Friday, March 22, 2019

The last time China bought more than 100,000 tonnes of U.S. corn in one week was in August of 2017


In a Fox Business interview President Trump said US-China trade deal continues to move forward and says it will probably happen.......

Friday, March 22, 2019

President Trump also said the U.S. will be able to keep 25% tariffs on automobiles ongoing adding that if foreign automakers want to avoid the tariffs they can build plants in the U.S.


Trump is asking his negotiators to ask China for “double or triple” its offer to buy U.S. goods........

Thursday, March 21, 2019

The last offer from China was $1.2 trillion over 6 years.  China's Commerce Ministry said US trade delegation will travel for talks in Beijing March 28-29th  for the 8th official face to face meeting, then Vice Premier Li will travel to Washington DC in early April for additional talks for the 9th official face to face meeting.


NOAA weather bureau forecasting that extensive flooding seen in the U.S. Midwest will continue through May & worsen water flows downstream........

Thursday, March 21, 2019

The head of the agency today said the situation has the potential to become an unprecedented flood season for 2019. CPC's new forecast for April 2019 shows a cool/wet bias in the western U.S. Corn Belt, a wet bias in the southeast, and a warm bias in the eastern 1/3 of the U.S.


U.S./China trade deal has now been pushed back to June as enforcement has become a sticking point

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Whats the point of signing a trade deal if the paper is not worth what has been agreed to? Reports from financial media say US Treas Sec Mnuchin and US Trade Rep Lighthizer will travel week of March 25th to China, followed by China's Vice Premier visiting Washington DC the following week. 


Roughly 1 million pounds of pork from China seized by US Customs agents at the port of Newark,.......

Monday, March 18, 2019

....... thwarting an attempt to smuggle the products into the US in more than 50 shipping containers; seizure comes amid stepped upASF precautions.


Chinese Ag ministry data released today shows the country's pig crop in February was off -16.6% from Feb 2018, the sow herd shrank by -19.1% during...

Friday, March 15, 2019

......Feb 2019 versus the year ago month as African swine fever sharply impacted farmers there.


Markets frustrated with slow pace of trade negotiations as headlines from Bloomberg report summit to sign trade deal pushed out to the end of April

Thursday, March 14, 2019

This is not a big surprise, nor does it mean that a deal with China cannot be reached, but it does give us another turn on the psychological trade war cycle where optimism for a deal is being let out of the balloon one more time.  


According to the country's meteorology bureau, Australia's heat wave will linger for the next 3 months with above average temps April 1 & June 30

Thursday, March 14, 2019

Farmers will start to plant wheat on April 1, this after last years drought that sent wheat production to an 11 year low.


2019 March USDA WASDE crop report bearish corn and wheat, neutral/supportive soybeans but March 27/28 trade deal pushed back

Friday, March 8, 2019

For soybeans, higher crush, exports unch. smaller crop and exports in Brazil, higher use in Argentina but harvest unch. China imports unch (and domestic crush was lowered 1 mmt to 88 mmt), 18/19 soybean ending stocks down to 900 million, 18/19 corn ending stocks up 100 million to 1.835 billion, exports down 75 million, ethanol down 25 million. 18/19 wheat ending stocks up 45 million exports down 35 million


China blocks Canadian #canola shipments from Richardson Inter'l as of Mar. 1, sends futures plunging after.......

Tuesday, March 5, 2019

..... dropping more than 10% in Feb. CDN canola exports down 51.9% in 18 vs. 17. Another CDN Canadian co. could assume export volume or help U.S. soy export program


According to Wall Street Journal, China is offering to lower tariffs on U.S. farm, chemical, auto & other products

Sunday, March 3, 2019

U.S. is also thinking of eliminating most if not all tariffs on Chinese products as part of a trade deal that could be signed by March 27, 19.


USDA January 1, 2019, Cattle Inventory Report: 5th year of expansion for U.S. cattle; largest U.S. herd in 11 years!

Thursday, February 28, 2019

USDA January 1, 2019, Cattle Inventory Report: 5th year of expansion for U.S. cattle; largest U.S. herd in 11 years!


Come check out #ONyield19 trade booth at the #LdnFarmShow from March 6 - 8, 19 booth number 1824 at the BMO Centre,....

Monday, February 25, 2019

......Come learn how to win great prizes by joining 2-week crop tour or attending final wrap up events. Thank You , ,


Soybeans higher as Trump delays March 1 hike on tariffs thanks to productive talks with China...........

Monday, February 25, 2019

China on Friday committed to buying an additional 10 mmt of soybeans. Only 7.4 mmt of soybeans have been sold to China in 18/19 off from 26 mmt the prior year.


Trump to extend trade deal talks with China by 2 days beyond March 1 suggesting a greater chance of deal being done.......

Friday, February 22, 2019

progress has been made on technology transfer issues & with currency manipulation. US Commerce Sec Ross said ts too early for Champagne!


China & US and near a breakthrough in trade deal? Negotiators are said to be drawing up 6 MoUs on structural issues-............

Thursday, February 21, 2019

- forced technology transfer & cyber theft, intellectual property rights, services, currency, agriculture a& non-tariff barriers to trade...


Bloomberg is reporting that China is proposing $30 billion additional US agriculture imports that would include.......

Thursday, February 21, 2019

..... more corn, soybeans and wheat as part of the deal to help reduce the balance of trade


2018 Dec Stats Canada Stocks Report bearish canola pegged at record high, wheat was lower than expected and .............

Tuesday, February 5, 2019

barley supplies shrink.


USDA Winter Wheat Seeding report 2019 could surprise with lower than expected all wheat acres. Informa at..........

Tuesday, February 5, 2019

........ 31.5 million acres vs. Farm Futures at 31.5 could be the surprise the wheat markets needs that no one is talking about!


2018 final U.S. production numbers this Friday could be a game changer if yields and harvested acres come in much lower than expected?............

Tuesday, February 5, 2019

Trade looking for USDA to finally report 2018 final U.S. production numbers this Friday after being absent for more than one month- Game-changer?


INTL FC Stone has lowered there 18/19 Brazilian soybean production down to 112.2 mmt from last year at 120.30 and............

Friday, February 1, 2019

 USDA at 120.50 in Dec. WASDE down 8.1 mmt or 297 million bushels


US Final 2018 Crop Production, Quarterly Grain Stocks data to be released on Feb 8th, along with the Feb 2019 WASDE crop report!

Monday, January 28, 2019

USDA: US Final 2018 Crop Production, Quarterly Grain Stocks data and Winter Wheat Seeding reports will be released on February 8th, along with the February 2019 WASDE crop report


Friday, January 25, 2019- Trump and congress on day 35 have reached a deal to fund gov't for 3-weeks

Friday, January 25, 2019

As they work towards an immigration deal and to fund a border wall. 


China has offered a 6-year boost in imports of U.S. goods with a combined value of $1 trillion & reduce U.S. deficit to 0 by 2024 (Bloomberg)

Friday, January 18, 2019|twitter&par=sharebar


Reuters according to grain trade sources reports that 500,000 MT of U.S. soys were bought by Chinese

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Worth 180 million in a classic case of "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario as soybean traders maybe disappointed with the size of the purchase but there could be more orders to come.


OPEC agrees to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day, WTI crude oil up $2.35 at $53.85..

Friday, December 7, 2018

Supportive for crude oil prices


18 USDA Nov. Crop Report a SURPRISE corn yield 178.9, soy 52, 18/19 corn ending stocks 1.736........

Thursday, November 8, 2018

18 USDA Nov. Crop Report a SURPRISE corn yield 178.9, soy 52, 18/19 corn ending stocks 1.736  bullish vs. expected, soys  955 bearish & wheat 949 neutral


Informa lowered '18 US corn yield to 179.7 bpa from 182.1, soy to 52.6 from 53..........

Friday, November 2, 2018

Informa Economics lowered their 2018 U.S. corn yield estimate to 179.7 bpa from 182.1 bpa. They also lowered their 2018 U.S. soybean yield estimate to 52.6 bpa from the previous outlook at 53.0 bpa


USDA Long Term forecasts 19/20: US Corn acres 92 mil, soy 82.5 mil! Its their initial projections...

Friday, November 2, 2018

USDA Long Term forecasts 19/20: US Corn acres 92 mil, soy 82.5 mil! Its the USDA's initial projections but not usually market moving


Bolsonaro-led Brazil set for crude oil windfall, with output & exports poised to soar............

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Bolsonaro-led Brazilian government set for crude oil windfall, with output & exports poised to soar


USDA Crop Progress (Oct 28) again showed higher than expected soybean harvest but lower corn harvest

Monday, October 29, 2018

USDA weekly Crop Progress report (Oct. 28) again showed higher (72%) than expected (70%) soybean harvest  & lower (63%) than expected (64%) corn harvest. Winter wheat planted (78%) lower than expected (82%) & crop conditions (53%) were also lower than expected (58%)


Real at 6 month high- Brazil's president Bolsonaro pledged to reform government finances by.........

Monday, October 29, 2018

Brazilian Real up to a 6 month high as Brazil's far-right president-elect Bolsonaro pledged to reform government finances by lowering deficits, shrinking public debts and lowering interest rates


In the latest Better Farming, Moe and Abhinesh assess Canada’s 2018 projected crop yields

Monday, October 29, 2018

In the latest Better Farming, Moe and Abhinesh assess Canada’s 2018 projected crop yields


IGC- 2018 world corn o/p unch at 1.074 bil tons; Soy lower by 1 MMT to 370 MMT;Wheat up to 728.8 MMT

Friday, October 26, 2018

International Grains Council (IGC)- 2018 world corn output unch vs. last month 1.074 bil tons (1.048 in 2017). Soybean lower by 1 MMT to 370 MMT (340 in 2017). Wheat up over 12 MMT to 728.8 MMT. Also forecasting expansion in world wheat area in 19/20 harvest- 1st gain in 4 years


Latest Better Pork, Moe & Abhinesh analyze recent trade negotiations & ASF disease outbreaks........

Friday, October 26, 2018

In the latest Better Pork, Moe and Abhinesh of analyze how recent trade negotiations and disease outbreaks have caused notable shifts in the hog market.


USDA 2018 Oct. Cold Storage supportive- U.S. beef & pork stocks lower than trade expectations.......

Monday, October 22, 2018

USDA October Cold Storage report supportive with U.S. beef & pork stocks coming in lower than trade expectations


Ag Canada Oct. update- 18/19 Stats Can model-based yield higher than their prior survey-based ones..

Monday, October 22, 2018

Ag Canada’s Oct. update (18/19 Stats Canada model-based yield higher than their prior survey-based ones): 18/19 canola ending stocks 2.5 MMT, double that of Sept. All wheat stocks +0.6 MMT vs. Sept. to 5.6 MMT. 18/19 total pulses stocks at 1.76 MMT, higher than Sept. 1.54 MMT


USDA October 2018 Cattle on Feed price-supportive!.........

Monday, October 22, 2018

USDA October 2018 Cattle on Feed price-supportive! Cattle On Feed October 1: 105%; estimate 106%; prior month 106%. Placements during Sep: 95%; estimate 100%; prior month 107%. Marketings during Sept: 96%; estimate 97%; prior month 100%


2018 Oct. WASDE Bullish vs. expectations corn yield 180.7, soy yield 53.1 bpa, corn & soy futures up

Thursday, October 11, 2018

2018 USDA Oct. Crop Report Bullish vs. expectations corn yield 180.7, soy yield 53.1 bpa, corn futures up +$0.07, soys up $0.05


Breaking News #ONyield18 final corn & soybean yields record high at 179.5 & 50.2 bpa!

Thursday, August 30, 2018

Breaking News - #ONyield18 Just released final 2018 ON corn & soybean yields record high at 179.5 & 50.2 bpa!


2018 August USDA WASDE Crop Report supportive wheat & corn, bearish soybeans

Friday, August 10, 2018

2018 August USDA WASDE Crop Report supportive wheat & corn, bearish soybeans 


2018 USDA July WASDE friendly corn, bearish wheat & soybeans but USDA underestimating demand........

Thursday, July 12, 2018

2018 USDA July WASDE crop report friendly corn, bearish wheat & soybeans but USDA underestimating demand because of trade


USDA June Acreage & Qtrly Grain Stocks slightly bearish corn & wheat, bullish soys - all priced in

Friday, June 29, 2018

USDA June Acreage & Quarterly Grain Stocks slightly bearish corn but priced in, bullish soys & bearish wheat but also priced in


2018 Stats Canada Acreage Report slightly bearish canola & wheat but priced in

Friday, June 29, 2018

2018 Stats Canada Acreage Report slightly bearish canola & wheat but priced in


2018 USDA June WASDE crop report friendly grains..........

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

2018 USDA June WASDE crop report friendly grains corn up +$0.10, soys up +$0.08 & wheat up +$0.15, a classic "sell the rumor, buy the news"


Weekly USDA grain exports (May 11-17): disappointing for soybeans but no surprises.............

Thursday, May 24, 2018 as China has not been buying for the past 4 weeks, while corn & wheat sales were at the upper end of the range. Soy oil, meal & cotton all at the middle of the expected range


USDA May Cold Storage Report sees higher Y/Y meat stocks, but in with recent trend!

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Beef at the end of April was 434.8 mil  pounds, 4.6% higher than a year ago and 2.9% higher than the 5-year average. Pork stocks 641.407 mil pounds, which was +51.083 mil pounds (+8.65%) higher than the same time last year. Pork belly inventories were 64.6 million pounds, 92.5% higher than a year ago but just 2% higher than the 5 year average.


Weekly USDA Crop progress, as of 20th May, 2018, lose to trade expectations!

Monday, May 21, 2018

Weekly USDA Crop progress, as of 20th May 2018, found corn, soybeans and spring wheat planting and winter wheat conditions close to trade expectations. But, Northern States planting still lagging. Corn planting advanced from 62% to 81% right in line with the 81% avg. for this date. Soybean planting progress advance from 35% to 56% complete this week vs. 44% avg. for this date. Winter wheat conditions came in at 36% G&E and 35 P&VP vs last week when they were 36% G&E and 36% P&VP. Both HRW and SRW wheat classes saw a slight uptick in conditions. Spring wheat planting came in at 79% complete vs 58% last week and the long term avg of 80%. 


Buenos Aires Grain Exchange report pegs the Argentina soybean crop at 36 MMT down 2 MMT vs..........

Friday, May 18, 2018

..........38 previous and down 21.8 MMT vs. last year at 57.8 with the crop 71% harvested vs. 67% last week as wet weather took its toll after the worst drought in 100 years!


NO DEAL ON NAFTA! Too many differences on labor, Ag, energy & intellectual property. Postponed .....

Friday, May 18, 2018 least until end of 18, will weigh on CDN $


CHINA ends anti-dumping probe into U.S. sorghum imports, willing to buy $200 billon more U.S. ......

Friday, May 18, 2018

...............products a sign willing to work on U.S. ag trade!


Informa projecting 2018 U.S. soybean plantings at 89.4 million acres up +0.42 vs. USDA at 89.4 &....

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

......... U.S. corn acres at 89 up +0.97 vs. USDA at 88. 2018 U.S. spring wheat comes in at 12.4 up +0.2 (except durum) vs. USDA at 12.6 while, cotton at 14 up +0.5 vs. USDA at 13.5.


Post 2018 May USDA crop report - 18/19 global corn stocks to use ratio is the 3rd tightest since....

Monday, May 14, 2018

.......1974. 18/19 global corn stocks ex-china are just 100,000 MT!


2018 USDA May WASDE crop report neutral corn, neutral to bearish wheat & bullish soybeans vs. ......

Thursday, May 10, 2018

...........expectations but 18/19 new crop ending stocks all trending lower


Good news for corn bulls! According to Reuters, Pres. Trump backs year round sales of E15..........

Tuesday, May 8, 2018

......... blended fuels & also RINS for all exports & will not put a cap on all RIN credits, a "win-win" decision for all sides!


In USDA May WASDE crop report traders are estimating lower global & U.S. ending stocks vs. 17/18...

Monday, May 7, 2018

.... as theUS takes its first official look at new crop supply and demand balance sheet tables.


USDA weekly crop progress report (May 6th, 2018) U.S. planting progress came in better than expected

Monday, May 7, 2018

USDA weekly crop progress report (May 6th, 2018) U.S. planting progress came in better than expected with corn at 39% vs. expected at 37%, 17% last week but still behind the average at 50%, soybeans from 5 to 15% vs. expected at 14%,spring wheat planted from 10% to 30% in line with expectations. Winter wheat crop conditions at 34% good-excellent in line with expectations for 34% and up 1% vs. last week at 33%. U.S. planters should be running hard ahead of the next rains that move in from the West starting tomorrow. 6-10 & 8-14-day outlook maps continue to suggest a nice window mid-month for those who do not get corn planted early this week. 


Planting progress in today's USDA Crop Progress Report - U.S. corn 62% up +24% wk/wk;.............

Monday, May 7, 2018

......... soybeans 35% up +20%wk/wk; spring wheat 58% up +28% wk/wk. Winter Wheat G-E 36% up +2% wk/wk


Wheat Tour 2018 final Kansas HRW wheat yield at 37 bpa vs. last year's 48 bpa & below..........

Friday, May 4, 2018

......... 5-year avg; production 243.3 mil bu is down 27% Y/Y. Nebraska, Colorado, Oklahoma & Kansas total Y/Y production loss is 150.62 mil bu, & if no rain in next 2 weeks, it'll get worse!


Old saying- if corn planting goes past May 10th, 1 bpa/day is the yield loss. Now, it's May 20th!

Tuesday, May 1, 2018

Planting date accounts for less than 25% of the variability in corn yields.


USDA crop progress report (April 29th, 2018) came within pre-report estimates for 2018 corn,........

Monday, April 30, 2018

.........soybeans & spring wheat planting (but all were at the low end of the range) & winter wheat crop conditions.


Lower 2018 U.S. corn acres, combined with lower 18/19 global production & higher consumption,.......

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

.........leading to shrinking global ending stocks for 2nd year in a row - setting up for a bullish outlook for corn futures


USDA Crop progress, 22 April,2018- Corn planting 5%, last week 3%, last year 15%. 1st soybean ......

Monday, April 23, 2018

......... planting progress 2% complete, last year 5%. Winter Wheat 31% G-E, 32% fair & 37% P-VP, unchanged from last week


U.S. Corn Exports (19 April, 2018) on Track to Exceed USDA projections, while Wheat at .............

Thursday, April 19, 2018

......... a marketing year low & worst in 3 years!


USDA reports record Mar. 18 soy crush 171.858 mill. bu! Capacity could be as high as .............

Thursday, April 19, 2018

..............2,050 bill. bu vs. current USDA estimates 1,970. USDA could up 17/18 crush usage to 2,000 & 18/19 - 2,100 - 2,200 on 2 new plants, ending stocks to drop 17/18 520 down 30 & 18/19 down 170 to 350


'18 Risk Management ON Planting Intentions Survey & Results from Feb 4 - Mar 25 are out...

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

..........with corn acres up +6.4% to 2.25 million acres above 5-year average, soys down -7.45% to 2.84 & all wheat up +4.2% to 1.05 million


USDA Weekly Crop Progress (Apr 16)– Corn planted 3%, up from last week’s 2%, behind............

Monday, April 16, 2018

........... avg 5%. Winter Wheat G-E 31%, unchg from last week, vs. 54% last year; P-VP 37%, up from last week’s 35% & last years 13%!


2018 USDA April WASDE crop report neutral corn, slightly bullish soybeans and............

Thursday, April 12, 2018

2018 USDA April WASDE crop report neutral corn, slightly bullish soybeans and slightly bearish wheat vs. expectations but no game changer


Could the 2018 Argentina corn crop go below 30 MMT? Latest estimates- 32 MMT corn & 38 MMT Soy......

Friday, April 6, 2018

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange Weekly Update estimates 17/18 corn crop at 32 MMT vs. 41 LY) with crop is 22% harvested.  Soybean crop 38 MMT vs. 39.5 previous (58 MMT LY) yields are off 25-58% and crop is 15% harvested. 


2018 USDA March Bullish acreage report overshadowed the bearish grain stocks report....

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Bullish acreage report overshadowed the bearish grain stocks report- 18/19 new crop ending stocks could shrink more for corn & soys, but beginning stocks (17/18 ending stocks in the April USDA WASDE report) should go up for both. Some offsetting demand adjustments possible....


Did you know that today is the 10th anniversary of $25 for Minneapolis Wheat Futures?

Friday, February 23, 2018

Did you know that today is the 10th anniversary of $25 for Minneapolis Wheat Futures?


Day 2 of 2018 USDA Ag Outlook Forum projecting 18/19 U.S. soybean exports will ...........

Friday, February 23, 2018

......rebound to a record high 2,300 up 200 million bushels (2,100 17/18), boosted by the setback to Argentina’s crop from drought


The U.S. drought seems to be travelling from the South and intensifying vs. from the North in 2012!

Friday, February 23, 2018

The U.S. drought seems to be travelling from the South and intensifying vs. from the North in 2012!


USDA 2018 Feb. WASDE: bullish corn, bearish soys & wheat. 17/18 Corn ending stocks ............

Thursday, February 8, 2018

....... 2.352 bil bu, down -125 mil bu from last month; Soys 530 bil bu, up +60 mil bu; & Wheat 1.009 bil bu, up +20 mil bu


In the monthly CONAB crop report 2017/18 soybean production is estimated up 1.15 MMT to ............

Thursday, February 8, 2018

........ 111.55 MMT. Total corn production down 4.3 MMT to 88 MMT more than expected, 1st season corn crop down 0.48 and 2nd season down 3.94 and wheat at 4.65 MMT vs. last year at 4.26 MMT.


Ahead of USDA Feb crop report analysts are estimating U.S. 17/18 corn ending stocks to be down......

Monday, February 5, 2018

.....10 million bushels, soybean ending stocks up 22 million bushels and all wheat ending stocks up 4 million. Global corn stocks are expected to be down 2.6 MMT, soybean unchanged and wheat down 0.2 MMT. USDA also expected to lower Argentina soybean production by 2.2 MMT to 52.8 vs. 56 last month, Brazil production to offset up 1.5 MMT and Argentina corn down 1.4 MMT to 40.5 vs. 42 last month and Brazil corn down 1.4 to 93.5 vs. last month at 95 MMT. 


In Stats Canada’s December 31st stocks report all grain estimates came in lower than expected with..

Monday, February 5, 2018

....the exception of peas slightly supportive wheat, oats and canola futures. Canola stocks the highest since 1980! 


USDA released its 2018 January Semi Annual Cattle Inventory report, which was mostly friendly.......

Wednesday, January 31, 2018

....... for prices and did not show higher than expected US cattle inventory expansion, except for dairy cattle. 


AgRural analysts pegged 17/18 Brazil soybean crop harvest at 3.8% complete, that compares to........

Monday, January 29, 2018

.......... the 4.3% pace in the year earlier week, but ahead of the long-term average pace at 2.9% complete. They estimate Mato Grosso soybean harvest at 13.5% complete up from the 12.4% pace in the year earlier week. 


AAFC: 18/19 Canadian grain & oilseed acreage to rise +3.8% Y/Y to 28.1 mil ha. Canola crop to ......

Friday, January 26, 2018

rise to record 21.7 MT vs. prev. 17/18 record 21.3 MT, exports to increase to record 12 MT. Wheat acreage to increase +4% Y/Y, -11% drop in W. wheat more than offset by +5% in S. wheat


Weather playing havoc with South American Crop. Private estimates for 2017/18 crop .................

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

..........factoring lower Y/Y total South American corn and soybeans production. Current projections see a drop of -10 MMT Y/Y for total South American production


Pres. Trump says terminating NAFTA would be the "best deal" to revamp 24-year old pact. Stay tuned..

Thursday, January 18, 2018

........ for potential shock at 23rd Jan, 6th round, talks in Montreal, and a wild ride for CDN$. BoC raised rates +0.25% y’day. Some think a U.S. NAFTA withdrawal could sink CDN$ 5-6 cents!


The Bank of Canada (BoC) today increased its target for the overnight rate up +0.25 to 1 .25% as....

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

............. recent data has been strong, inflation is close to target, and the economy is operating roughly at capacity despite the NAFTA uncertainty. 


Rare snow covers the Sahara Desert in Algeria – Second year in a row after 40 years of absence

Monday, January 15, 2018

Rare snow covers the Sahara Desert in Algeria – Second year in a row after 40 years of absence


18 USDA Jan. crop reports bearish wheat & corn vs. expected & slightly bullish soys from ........

Friday, January 12, 2018

...........unexpected cut in yield to 49.1 bpa despite being offset by lower exports. The drop in 18 winter wheat acres was 1% but less than the 4% drop expected. The perennial bull market in cotton also saw a setback as the USDA trimmed ending stocks and increased exports but not as much as was expected by the trade. 


Dec. 1 corn stocks a new record high! USDA Dec. 1 corn stocks were ABOVE trade expectations at......

Friday, January 12, 2018

.......... 12.516 bln bu, soybeans BELOW at 3.157 bln bu, and wheat ABOVE at 1.874 bln bu. 


U.S. farmers planted the 2nd lowest ever of 2018 winter wheat acres at 32.608 million including.....

Friday, January 12, 2018

........... a record 109 year low of HRW acres of 23.1 mln.


U.S. winter wheat, through the end of December, shows crop stress. But, this doesn't include .......

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

...... the recent cold spell!

In North Carolina, winter wheat conditions were rated 72% G&E compared to 86% previously and P&VP was 4% compared to 1% back in Nov. In Colorado, winter wheat conditions were rated 48% G&E compared to 66% previously and P&VP was 21% compared to 7% in Nov. In Oklahoma, winter wheat conditions were rated 15% G&E compared to 30% previously and P&VP was 42% compared to 10% in Nov. In Illinois, winter wheat conditions were rated 56% G&E compared to 62% previously and P&VP was 15% compared to 11% in Nov. In Kansas, winter wheat conditions were rated 37% G&E compared to 51% previously and P&VP was 22% compared to 14% back in Nov. North Dakota conditions were very comparable to last month. Winter wheat conditions were rated 27% G&E compared to 28% previously and P&VP was 38% compared to 34% back in Nov. Nebraska wheat conditions improved. Winter wheat conditions were rated 64% G&E compared to 59% previously and P&VP was 7% compared to 10% back in Nov. South Dakota conditions also improved. Winter wheat conditions were rated 20% G&E compared to 18% previously and P&VP was 36% compared to 38% back in Nov. Montana conditions also improved. Winter wheat conditions were rated 40% G&E compared to 33% previously and P&VP was 13% compared to 15% back in Nov. 


Join us at 11:45a.m. EDT or 10:45am CDT for live review '17 USDA Dec. WASDE. Details in email.

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Join us live 11:45 a.m. EDT or 10:45 am CDT for pre & post review 17 USDA Dec. crop report. Details in email


Market expectations for Dec. WASDE: reductions to the South American 17/18 crop..........

Thursday, December 7, 2017

........ Argentina Soybeans: 56.52 mmt vs 57.0 last month, Corn: 41.77 vs 42.0 last month. Brazil Soybeans: 108.2 mmt vs 108 last month, Corn: 93.26 vs 95 last month


Stats Canada 2017 Nov. Production report raised canola & wheat est. from trade expectations & ....

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

..... Stats Can Sept. est., but, corn est. was close to expected, & soy lower. Total wheat production declined 5.5% to 30.0 million tonnes in 2017 vs. last year, vs. expected 28 MMT. 21.3 million tonnes of canola in 2017, up 8.7% from 19.6 million tonnes in 2016. Corn at 14.1 (vs. 13.2 last year), 3.7 mmt for oats (vs. 3.2 last year), 7.9 mmt for barley vs. (8.8 last year). Soybean production was lower than expected at 7.72 MMT (but higher than last year’s 6.55 MMT). 


Informa lowered their Aussie and South American 17/18 Crop Estimates in December ....

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

17/18 Aussie wheat production at 20.3 mln mt off from the 21.6 mln mt previously. 

17/18 Brazil Soybean production at 110.0 mln mt off from the 111.00 mln mt prev., Brazil total Corn production at 89.0 mln mt off from the 92.0 mln mt prev. 

17/18 Argentina Wheat production at 18.0 mln mt up from the 17.7 mln mt prev., Soybean production at 54.5 mln mt down from the 55.0 mln mt prev., Corn production at 42.0 mln mt unchanged from the previous month


2018/19 U.S. grain beginning stocks are starting to snowball higher the past 5 years! The best .....

Thursday, November 16, 2017

 bull markets are led by demand & it will be the key to higher futures in 2018.


Informa now projecting 2018 corn acres to be up +0.96 million to 91.42,soybeans ...........

Thursday, November 16, 2017

down -0.72 million to 89.63 & all wheat down -0.25 to 45.63 & U.S. winter wheat at also down 0.25 to 31.92 million acres


USDA 13-Nov: Corn harvest 83% complete, up +13% wk/wk; Soybean harvest 93%, ...............

Monday, November 13, 2017

+3% wk/wk; Winter Wheat planted 95%, +4% wk/wk & Winter Wheat Condition 54% good-excellent, -1% wk/wk


'17 USDA NOV. WASDE (9th, Thurs)- Trade expects higher US corn yield est., no major changes for Soy

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

'17 USDA NOV. WASDE (9th, Thurs)- Trade expects higher US corn yield est., no major changes for Soy


17 USDA Oct. crop report bullish soybeans, neutral corn wheat looks like its all priced in!.........

Thursday, October 12, 2017

...........Surprise soy yields 49.5 & ending stocks 430


USDA 10-Oct-2017, U.S. corn & soy crop conditions G-E up +1% & corn harvest at 22% below the........

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

..........25-30% expected & soys 36% also below 42-47%


Conab forecasting a 13 year low in corn acres for 2017 in Brazil at the expense of soybeans but.....

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

.......forecasting soybean ranger below expectations


Bearish Again! '17 WASDE: 17/18 corn yield 169.9 bpa vs. expected 167.8. Soy yield 49.9 bpa vs......

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

........ expected 48.7


USDA (13 Sept) 1st corn harvest report 5% harvested, in line with expected 4-6%. Corn dented 75%....

Monday, September 11, 2017

USDA (13 Sept) 1st corn harvest report 5% harvested, in line with expected 4-6% vs. 5% last year & 7% average. Corn dented 75% vs. last week 60%, last year 85% & average of 81%


Final 17 2nd Annual Great ON Yield Tour results 163.2 bpa (+/-1%) for corn & 45.7 (+/-2%) bpa beans

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Thank You all hosts & sponsors


Conab forecasts a record South American #corn & #soybean crop - Large crops get larger! (chart).....

Thursday, August 10, 2017


'17 Aug USDA-WASDE forecasting a much bigger U.S. corn & soy crop at 169.5 & 49.4 bpa ..............

Thursday, August 10, 2017

 ..........respectively? A very bearish report near-term.


USDA crop progress report shows 5% G-E decline in IL to 58%! Do small crops get smaller? ...........

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

.........73% of U.S. is double digit worse conditions vs. 16