News

Below are the latest news updates from Farms.com Risk Management

Bubble Anyone? China stokes "bubble" fears... US stock markets continue to rise, aiming at new record highs, as if #COVID19 never happened...

Tuesday, March 2, 2021

Canadian real estate is soaring relentlessly even as economic data doesn't substantiate it....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-02/china-worried-about-bubbles-in-property-foreign-markets

 

2020 was a banner year for Canadian pork exports @ 1.49 MMT, valued @ CDN$5.093 bil, up +17.89% & 19.89% Y/Y. Exports to China grew over.....

Monday, March 1, 2021

.... 2½ times to record CDN$1.645 bil & 0.61 MMT. 2021 may find it tough to beat that but should stay elevated

 

2021 US corn and soybeans February final crop insurance averaging is $4.58 & $11.87/bu. A 6/7 year high is most likely going to attract record.....

Friday, February 26, 2021

.....acres, so will the USDA surprise on March 31st?

 

US Midwest 2021 dry conditions could be great for planting season but maybe not for the growing season?

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Australia will receive above-average fall rains in grain-growing eastern regions, helped by La Nina. Summer has been wetter than usual.
Australia will receive above-average fall rains in grain-growing eastern regions, helped by #LaNina. Summer has been wetter than usual.

 

US fertilizer prices up ~20% since the recent low in Oct 2020 on a perfect storm of strong demand, soaring grain prices, good spring application.....

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

.....prospects & tight global supply. Another 2012-type high in order long-term?

 

Old crop canola futures soar to $800/MT- first time ever! Tight near-term availability as Canada runs out of supply & frigid Prairies temps compound..

Monday, February 22, 2021

..the situation! New crop though is undervalued vs. old

 

Since at least 2010, USDA has not reported US soybean carryout this tight in the early annual Ag Outlook Forum (despite record output anticipated &...

Friday, February 19, 2021

.....second-highest yield)! Corn carryout is the tightest projected since the 2011 (La Nina) Forum

 

AAFC Feb update- 20/21 & 21/22 Canada canola carryout 700,000MT vs 1.2 & 1 MMT previously! 21/22 stocks-use ratio @ only 3%! If strong demand holds...

Thursday, February 18, 2021

.....carryout could be closer to 0 & Canada will need to import? Will 2021 acres be up 3-4%? If not it will add more fuel to fireworks!

 

ABARES- Australia to harvest record 20/21 wheat crop, at 33.34 MMT vs. previous 16/17 high of 31.8 MMT.....

Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Heavy rains in key producing regions boosted yields. Harvesting almost complete. USDA will update world balance-sheet higher in March?

 

National Cotton Council projects US farmers will plant 600,000 less cotton acres in 2021 (@ 11.5 mil). But with futures up +12% since start of 2021...

Thursday, February 11, 2021

..... vs. corn +4.1% & soybeans +7%, someone will be surprised in the USDA March 31st Planting Intentions report!

 

Palm Oil futures resilient despite broader weakness in canola, corn, soybeans, wheat. Veg oil tightness continues in 2021 as.....

Wednesday, February 10, 2021

..... March palm oil closes at new contract high. Grains/oilseed could follow soon- not if but when!

 

Farm Futures planting survey of 806 farmers in Jan. pegs 21 U.S. corn acres at 94.7 million, soybeans 84.5, winter wheat 32.4, spring 12.6....

Friday, February 5, 2021

The new crop bean/corn ratio 2.58% is too low! 84.7 soys too low it will not fix a tight balance sheet. '21 drought = prices thru the roof!

Farm Futures 21/22 U.S. Crop Acreage Estimates

(in Mil Acres) Farm Futures 21/22 Est.- Jan USDA 21/22 Early Est. USDA 20/21 Final
Corn 94.7 90.0 90.8
Soybeans 84.5 89.0 83.1

Source: USDA, Farm Futures

 

Tomorrow's Stats Canada Dec 31 quarterly grain stocks report is expected to show significantly lower canola stocks at 12.3 MMT, off -3.61 MMT Y/Y ....

Thursday, February 4, 2021

..... on strong demand. Wheat stocks also lower at 25.4 MMT.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-buying-spree-stokes-shortage-fears-for-top-canola-supplier-1.1558555

 

New contract highs in hog futures- continued strong exports, domestic demand & smaller supplies in coming months. ASF, PED cases in China's hogs....

Wednesday, February 3, 2021

..... , as piglet prices double, could slow their pork industry recovery. US pork exports to China could remain strong in 1st half of 2021?

 

Groundhog Day- Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, meaning 6 more weeks of winter! Its a 50/50 coin flip, but maybe Mother Nature has a different....

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

..... outlook with a La Nina weather forecast? It could be an early, warm & dry planting season?
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/groundhog-day-2021-results-punxsutawney-phil-predicts-6-more-weeks-of-winter/

 

Heavy rains (up to 10 inches) were seen in Southern regions of Brazil. Very poor timing for soybean harvest & safrinha corn planting....

Monday, February 1, 2021

Heavy rains (up to 10 inches) were seen in Southern regions of Brazil like Parana, Southern Catarina, Southern Mato Grosso Du Sul & Northern Rio Grande Du Sul. Very poor timing for soybean harvest & safrinha corn planting. Feb. is expected to stay wet! spglobal.com/platts/en/mark

 

Brazil's IMEA estimated Mato Grosso's 20/21 2nd season Safrinha corn planting progress at 2.1% complete, lagging last year's 21.9% & long term avg 14%

Friday, January 29, 2021

Soybeans harvest 4.7% complete, lagging 26.7% LY & 17.6% long term avg

 

New US farm bill in 2 yrs, Tom Vilsack says USDA will enable carbon markets where polluters pay farmers to plant grass/trees vs corn/soy....

Thursday, January 28, 2021

.....; expand payments to farmers for conservation stewardship Taking acres away = much higher prices?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/27/opinion/biden-vilsack-agriculture-climate-change.html

 

US economy contracted -3.5% in 2020 as COVID19 lockdowns to control the spread of the virus slowed growth, it but gained +4% in Q4 vs....

Thursday, January 28, 2021

 .....expected 4.3%. 2021 growth expected at 4-6% on vaccine hope

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/us-gdp-jobless-reports-1.5891351

 

AAFC est +3% increase in 2021 Canadian canola acres but stocks tighten to 1 MMT (even below 2020's tight 1.2) What if acres are not up & La Nina .....

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

..... results in lower yields, with a continued record demand inflationary environment, then what? New crop canola futures to the moon?

 

ADM earnings per share at a record, reporting China bought 200 mil gallons of US ethanol for first half 2021 (Game Changer?). CEO also expects record

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

Ukraine to limit 20/21 corn export at 24 MMT. They increased 20/21 grain export forecast to 45.42 MMT from prev 44.18 MMT. They raised 2020 corn....

Monday, January 25, 2021

....harvest to 30.3 MMT from 29.3 & exports to 23.5 MMT from 22.3. In 19/20 they exported 57 MMT grain

 

With corn futures +63%, soybeans +74% and cotton +59%, has corn bought acres from either, IHS Markit reporting 2021 US corn acres at 94.2 million?

Thursday, January 21, 2021

184 million corn/soy acreage pie looks a little ambitious?

21/22 U.S. Crop Acreage Early Estimates

(in Mil Acres) Markit 21/22 Est.- Jan Markit 21/22 Est.- Dec USDA 21/22 Early Est. USDA 20/21 Final
Corn 94.2 91.1 90.0 90.8
Soybeans 90.1 89.45 89.0 83.1
All Wheat 45.3 45.46 46.0 44.3
Cotton 11.5 13 11.2 12.1

Source: USDA, Markit Group

 

After USDA dropped 20/21 global grains supply est. in Jan WASDE, IGC affirmed it in their est. 20/21 corn output is reduced vs. prior est. ...........

Thursday, January 14, 2021

by a significant -13 MMT to 1,133 MMT, soybeans off -6 to 359, wheat off -1 to 768

20/21 IGC Grain Output & Consumption Estimates

(in Billion MT) 20/21 Jan. 20/21 Nov. Jan. vs. Nov. 19/20
Corn Output 1.133 1.146 -0.013 1.124
Soybean Output 0.359 0.365 -0.006 0.338
Wheat Outout 0.768 0.769 -0.001 0.764
Total Grain Output 2.21 2.22 -0.01 2.186
Total Grain Consumption 2.216 2.222 -0.006 2.192
Source: International Grains Council

 

EPA giving US refiners more time to blend to meet the deadlines for 2019 & 2020. EPA could grant 22 of 32 small refinery exemptions requested for 2019

Thursday, January 14, 2021

...compliance year? EPA has not reported one way or the other where they stand on SREs

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biofuels/us-epa-eyes-extending-refinery-biofuel-deadlines-no-action-on-waivers-idUSKBN29J226

 

Russia likely to extend wheat export tax into new marketing year beginning July 1! EU prices up over $34/MT Euros since December.....

Thursday, January 14, 2021

....What will wheat prices do when Russian export tax takes effect in mid-Feb? KC & MW wheat futures to new contract highs!

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/russia-may-almost-double-wheat-export-tax-to-stall-food-prices

 

Argentina has lifted all restrictions on old crop corn exports, but they will monitor situation to guarantee internal supply....

Wednesday, January 13, 2021

The export limit set at 30,000 MT/ day earlier this week. The 30,000 MT limit was itself a replacement for a complete suspension on all old crop corn exports during January and February, which was introduced at the end of December amid surging international corn, wheat and soybean prices.

According to private estimates, there is a stock of more than 8 mmt of corn in the domestic market, a volume more than enough to supply the 3.46 mmt required by the domestic market during January and February.

https://www.reuters.com/article/argentina-grains/update-3-argentine-agriculture-ministry-says-it-lifts-corn-export-limit-idUSL1N2JN21Q

 

2021 Final January USDA Crop Reports Extremely Bullish Surprise & Shock for Corn!

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

2021 JANUARY USDA WASDE 20/21 U.S. CROP ESTIMATES 

20/21 U.S. CROP USDA JANUARY JANUARY TRADE EST. USDA DECEMBER
Corn Harvested Area (Mil Acres) 82.5 82.543 82.527
Yield (bpa) 172 175.3 175.8
Production (Bil Bu) 14.182 14.470 14.507
Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 1.552 1.590 1.702
Soybeans Harvested Area (Mil Acres) 82.3 82.305 82.289
Yield (bpa) 50.2 50.5 50.7
Production (Bil Bu) 4.135 4.158 4.170
Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 0.140 0.140 0.175
Wheat Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 0.836 0.860 0.862

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters

 

2021 JANUARY USDA 20/21 WORLD ENDING STOCKS (MMT)

WORLD 20/21 USDA JAN. JAN. TRADE AVG. USDA DEC.
CORN 283.83 283.5 288.96
SOYBEANS 84.31 82.70 85.64
WHEAT 313.19 315.4 316.5

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters

 

2021 JANUARY USDA WASDE - 20/21 SOUTH AMERICAN PRODUCTION 

(in MMT) USDA 20/21 JAN. 20/21 JAN. TRADE AVERAGE USDA 20/21 DEC.
ARGENTINA
CORN 47.5 47.4 49.0
SOYBEANS 48.0 48.4 50.0
BRAZIL
CORN 109.0 107.7 110.0
SOYBEANS 133.0 131.4 133.0

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters

 

USDA DEC. 1, 2020 QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORT

(Bil Bu) USDA Dec. 1, 2020 Pre-Report Estimates, Dec. 1, 2020 USDA Sept.1, 2020 USDA Dec. 1, 2019
Corn 11.322 11.95 1.919 11.327
Soybeans 2.933 2.92 0.525 3.252
All Wheat 1.674 1.695 2.158 1.841

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters

 

2021 JANUARY U.S. WINTER WHEAT PLANTINGS

(Mil Acres) 2021 January USDA Jan 2021 Market Est. 2020 USDA
All Winter Wheat 31.991 31.528 30.415
Hard Red Winter Wheat 22.3 22.14 21.362
Soft Red Winter Wheat 6.23 5.884 5.564
White Winter 3.48 3.514 3.489

Source: USDA, Reuters

 

More fuel to the fire in wheat complex- Russia mulling plan to increase its proposed 25 euro/MT export tax to 50 euros?

Monday, January 11, 2021

Hike could come during Feb 15-March 15th?

https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-wheat-exports/update-1-russia-considers-increasing-wheat-export-tax-exporters-union-idUSL1N2JM1UD

 

2021 La Nina- US Midwest & Southern Plains has been drier than normal, and the US Drought Monitor map shows that 29% of Soybean area is in drought....

Friday, January 8, 2021

Spring-Summer outlook is dry. The start of 2012 looks similar to the start of 2021

 

Pre-port estimates for Jan 2021 USDA WASDE are coming in too high, so there is a high probability that the USDA could provide a bullish surprise?

Thursday, January 7, 2021

2021 JANUARY USDA WASDE 20/21 U.S. CROP ESTIMATES 

20/21 U.S. CROP JANUARY TRADE EST. JANUARY RANGE OF EST. USDA DECEMBER
Corn Harvested Area (Mil Acres) 82.543 82.0 - 84.16 82.527
Yield (bpa) 175.3 173.8 - 178.2 175.8
Production (Bil Bu) 14.470 14.319 - 14.997 14.507
Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 1.590 1.400 - 1.782 1.702
Soybeans Harvested Area (Mil Acres) 82.305 81.986 - 82.67 82.289
Yield (bpa) 50.5 49.4 - 51.7 50.7
Production (Bil Bu) 4.158 4.084 - 4.26 4.170
Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 0.140 0.105 - 0.166 0.175
Wheat Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 0.860 0.837 - 0.900 0.862

 

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters

 

The soybeans rally will have to pause at some point? But its remained overbought technically for 4 months & still rising? No exhaustion yet but....

Wednesday, January 6, 2021

.... maybe "buying the rumor, selling the news" ahead of Jan WASDE. Or will USDA surprise & futures will need to ration more demand?

 

US Winter wheat conditions through the end of 2020 was much worse off Y/Y, with a lot of significant poor-very poor (P-VP) ratings.....

Tuesday, January 5, 2021

....Wheat has been a follower to corn & soybeans for the most part so far but could soon lead, as it did in 2010?

U.S. Winter Wheat Conditions @ End-2020

U.S. States End-2020 End-2019
G-E % P-VP% G-E % P-VP%
Illinois 50 25 48 16
Colorado 19 34 57 19
Kansas 46 17 40 21
Montana 65 5 55 16
Nebraska 37 15 70 6
North Dakota 26 22 75 7
South Dakota 37 8 73 1

Source: USDA
U.S. Winter Wheat Conditions @ End-2020

 

New contract highs in grain & oilseed futures at the start of the new year- 2021

Monday, January 4, 2021

as South American crop supply worries continue due to dry weather, but demand remains strong.

 

CFTC weekly COT, Dec 29, 2020- spec funds bought a whopping 66,332 contracts net in corn to take net length to 332,045, highest since summer 2012, &..

Monday, January 4, 2021

now estimated long 350,000 after last week's price surge!

CFTC Managed Money Positions in Ag as of December 29th, 2020
CFTC Managed Money Positions in Ag as of December 29th, 2020

Grains 29-Dec 21-Dec Gain/Loss
Corn 332,045 265,713 66,332
Oats 1,481 1,404 77
Soybeans 196,487 188,623 7,864
Soy Meal 89,487 83,385 6,102
Soy Oil 112,989 101,253 11,736
SRW Wheat 13,360 6,233 7,127
HRW Wheat 55,560 51,544 4,016
HRS Wheat 3,933 2,420 1,513
Canola 56,215 60,390 -4,175
Cotton 68,429 70,533 -2,104
Lean Hogs 33,770 32,854 916
Live Cattle 49,001 47,698 1,303
Feeder Cattle 3,726 3,358 368

Source: CFTC

 

Russian officials considering imposing a wheat export tax of around 2,000 roubles ($27.3) per MT for Feb. 15-June 30, to stabilise domestic prices

Friday, December 11, 2020

Russia is considering imposing the wheat export tax, a grain export quota as well as a price cap for domestic sunflower oil and sugar prices following President Vladimir Putin's criticism of rising food prices.

 

USDA 2020 December Crop Report Friendly with a Surprise Lower Global Wheat Ending Stocks Number

Thursday, December 10, 2020

USDA leaves the U.S. corn balance sheet unchanged, but soybeans fall to 175 million bushels on a 15-million-bushel jump in crush. Soybean exports were left unchanged. Wheat exports were increased 10 million bushels and U.S. ending stocks fall to 862 million bushels below expectations vs. last month at 877.

USDA reduced the global ending stocks of corn, soybeans and surprised with a much lower wheat number vs. expectations. China corn imports jumped to 16.5 mmt from 13 mmt. Wheat supplies in fell in China and EU. China wheat imports bumped up 0.5 mmt to 8.5 mmt.

USDA reduced the 20/21 harvest of both corn and soybeans in Argentina by 1 mmt each. The 19/20 Argentina soybean harvest was also trimmed from 49 mmt. Brazil crops were unchanged from the November estimates.

 The "holy grail" report and potential bullish surprise will be the final January USDA crop report on Jan. 12, 2021. In the past 7 years the USDA has lowered U.S. corn ending stocks 6 out of 7 years from the Nov. to Jan. crop reports. Soybeans lower 4 out of the past 5 years!

Cash crop producers be patient remain on the offence (risk on futures) with unpriced bushels, do not pay commercial elevator storage. Livestock producers/commercials extend feed coverage/get covered out further on any any further breaks in futures by year-end.

 

Latest USDA weekly corn inspections disappointing but soybeans were better than expected with 68% to China. Wheat inspections up +3% Y/Y....

Monday, December 7, 2020

 

Actual

Trade Expectations

Prior Week

YTD

(Y/Y %)

Corn

734

750 - 1,100

1,035

11,027

69%

Soybean

2,297

1,500 - 2,200

2,424

29,420

69%

Wheat

531

400 - 600

534

13,467

3%

 

USDA Dec crop report estimates show trade anticipating the continuation of the tightening trend in the US and world ending stocks,.....

Monday, December 7, 2020

..... not including world wheat. Modest downward revisions are expected in South American production.

 

Latest CFTC weekly report showed speculative money reducing length in grains. -16.9k corn (net long 270.6k), -9.1k soybeans (net long 194.6k),....

Friday, December 4, 2020

.... -19.6k srw (net short -4.3k), -3.9k hrw (net long 44.5k), -749 meal (net long 70.3k) and -626 oil (net long 104.7k).

 

Stats Can says 20/21 Canadian canola production is smallest in 5 years as both Saskatchewan & Alberta reported lower production.....

Thursday, December 3, 2020

Yields were impacted by dry conditions across parts of the Prairies, especially later in the growing season.

The November production estimates for the 2020 Canadian wheat, canola and corn crops tightened vs. the July estimates, while the soybeans, barley and oats estimates were higher vs. July.

(in MMT)

2020 (Nov. Est.)

2020 (July Est.)

2019

Y/Y Change

Total wheat

35.183

35.74

32.67

7.69%

Durum

6.571

6.926

5.017

30.97%

Spring Wheat

25.841

25.935

25.952

-0.43%

Winter Wheat

2.77

2.879

1.701

62.85%

Barley

10.741

10.546

10.383

3.45%

Canola

18.72

19.403

19.607

-4.52%

Corn

13.563

13.928

13.404

1.19%

Oats

4.576

4.498

4.227

8.26%

Soybeans

6.359

5.962

6.145

3.48%

Flaxseed

0.578

0.553

0.486

18.93%

 

CFTC weekly COT, Nov 17th- corn, soybeans & wheat saw net speculative selling, whereas hogs & cattle featured net buying.

Friday, November 20, 2020

Managed money funds have been net long almost all grains & livestock since early Sept.

 

In 2½ months of MY 20/21, US committed ~86% of soybeans export target (at record 2.2 bil bu) on extraordinary China demand.

Thursday, November 19, 2020

Remaining 14% must be rationed, and exports could be increased further? The winter rally has more legs left?

 

CFTC weekly COT for Nov 10- Recent speculative position in #soybeans near the "peaks" of (record futures year) 2012!

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Managed money funds sold corn, wheat, canola, cotton, hogs. Cattle featured net speculative buying. 

 

Soybean futures closing in on $12/bu target. La Nina is increasing dryness in South America at a time when the global balance sheet is tightening.

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

South Brazil & Argentina are most affected in La Nina years. $12 beans was last seen in June 2016 (briefly)

 

Crude Oil futures buoyed by positive COVID-19 vaccine news. OPEC expects 2020 world oil demand to contract by ~9.8 mbpd Y/Y. OPEC+ meet .....

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

.... Nov 30 & Dec 1 to discuss next phase of oil production policy. 2021 demand looks better?

 

It took FOUR years for Soybean futures to climb back above $11.50/bu, as USDA delivered a BULLISH Nov WASDE surprise with .....

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

.... lower US 20/21 crop est, including corn and wheat. Early Christmas gift, with ideas of strong close to 2020 as it ALL comes together for grain markets?

 

Dow hits record 30K! Pfizer says COVID19 vaccine is more than 90% effective (vs seasonal flu at 40-60%). 1.2 mil doses available in 2021....

Monday, November 9, 2020

Risk-ON recovery? Money shifting from stay-at-home stocks (ZOOM) to growth stocks (tech, energy)?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vaccine-pfizer-drug-is-more-than-90percent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html

 

Strength in grains supported by expected US & global balance sheet tightening in USDA Nov 10th WASDE, with La Nina uncertainty in South America...

Thursday, November 5, 2020

USDA to revise corn & soybean exports on increased China demand & lower production, yields & ending stocks.

 

New contract highs for deferred #soybean futures as the rally kicks into higher gear

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

USDA Nov WASDE expected to show for lower yields & tighter 20/21 US corn and soybean crops.
Demand continues to be strong.
La Nina is threatening South American Crops.

 

#2 soybean exporter US is shipping 38,000 MT to #1 exporter Brazil (largest such transaction since 1997), as it is grappling with rising prices .....

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

.... of domestic food staples. Futures boosted by continued strong demand

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/brazil-bound-u-s-soybean-vessel-loading-at-gulf-coast-terminal-southport-shipping-lineup-3

 

La Nina, which is currently moderate-to-strong, likely to be active through spring 2021, & in summer 2021?

Monday, November 2, 2020

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2020/10/15/la-nia-a-presidential-election-and-the-winter-weather-outlook/?sh=6eda21a04f13

 

CFTC COT Oct 27- managed money funds bought 57,410 in corn to take net length to 276,235, highest since late-July 2015...

Friday, October 30, 2020

But likely to come down in next week's report due to sell off this week. 2021 futures closed higher today though

 

Crude oil futures break below support on global COVID-19 case increases & US presidential election jitters. But US Q3 GDP up +33% a positive. OPEC+...

Thursday, October 29, 2020

... might have to increase production cut in Jan as demand falters

 

USDA monthly cumulative daily sales announcements started soaring in July due to China demand but the pace has slowed in October....

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Daily announcements only include those that are higher than 100,000-200,000 MT

2020 Monthly Cumulative Daily Sales Announcements Since July

(in MMT) Corn Soybeans
July 6.287 4.162
August 3.155 4.597
September 2.172 5.89
October
(month-to-date)
1.286 2.748

 

Source: USDA, QTPlus

 

Weekly CFTC commitment of traders for Oct 20- managed money funds increased net length in Ag, except cattle

Friday, October 23, 2020

Corn highest since March 2018.Soybean highest since Sept. 2012 .
Grain futures had a strong weekly close.

 

China requested millers to stop buying Australian cotton. That and potential damage from Hurricane Delta in US cotton regions supported cotton futures

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Dec reached a high of $71.65 today- values not seen in 9-months!

 

US consumption of renewable energy in 2019 grew for 4th consecutive year to record 11.5 quadrillion Btu (11% of total US energy consumption)

Monday, October 19, 2020

Wind-powered (turbine) electricity accounted for ~24%, overtaking hydroelectricity.

 

CFTC COT for 13 Oct showed more managed money fund buying in corn, wheat, cotton & hogs, and selling in soybeans, canola & cattle.

Friday, October 16, 2020

CFTC Managed Money Positions in Ag as of October 13th, 2020

Grains 13-Oct 6-Oct Gain/Loss
Corn 170,869 134,466 36,403
Oats 1,477 1,375 102
Soybeans 226,444 238,394 -11,950
Soy Meal 77,068 77,067 1
Soy Oil 82,188 80,994 1,194
SRW Wheat 38,590 30,336 8,254
HRW Wheat 32,197 27,379 4,818
HRS Wheat -1,774 -5,112 3,338
Canola 52,949 58,470 -5,521
Cotton 59,942 53,080 6,862
Lean Hogs 37,154 35,674 1,480
Live Cattle 56,038 59,016 -2,978
Feeder Cattle -3,834 -1,872 -1,962

Source: CFTC

 

2020 December Corn Futures overnight hit $4.00/bu!

Thursday, October 15, 2020

The uptrend remains intact on a smaller U.S. corn crop, strong Chinese demand and the perception that a continued dry South American La Nina weather pattern will further delay the soybean planting season and push the second-Safrinha corn crop into a less desirable window-of-weather.

In the past 3-yaers corn futures have traded above $4.10/bu but always in the spring.

The probability is increasing that it may happen by year-end!

 

It's been exactly a year to the date since nearby corn futures broke above $4! Soybeans last week reached the highest since January 2017!

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Some (recent) historic milestones?

 

US pork cutout at new highs for the current leg up. Pork bellies doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Demand continues to be king!

Tuesday, October 13, 2020

supportive for hog futures, along with its steep discount to cash (which will entice more buying on breaks)

 

US CPC La Nina advisory- 85% chance La Nina conditions likely to last through northern hemisphere winter & 60% chance they will run into spring-2021

Friday, October 9, 2020

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-weather-lanina/u-s-forecaster-sees-85-chance-of-la-nia-through-winter-idUKKBN26T2LA

 

USDA 2020 October Crop Report Bullish Corn, Soybean & Wheat as U.S. Ending Stocks Fall!

Friday, October 9, 2020

According to today’s much-anticipated USDA Oct. WASDE crop report, U.S. 20/21 corn yield was slightly lowered, no change to soybeans, and wheat was lowered to 49.7bpa from 50.1 last month. But harvested area was reduced for both soys & corn after a review of certified acreage data from FSA. Corn and soy production both came in below trade expectations as a result.

20/21 US soybean ending stocks came in at 290 mil bu for 2020/21, well below trade expectations, on a harvest reduction, increase in exports, and a smaller beginning stocks. Corn comes in close to trade expectations, and wheat is lower. 

20/21 global ending stocks were generally lighter than expected, especially for soybeans, though new crop wheat is much higher. Russia's 2020 harvest was increased 5 mmt. Ukraine's corn harvest was cut by 2 mmt. China's 20/21 soybean demand +1 mmt to 100 mmt. 

 

August US ag exports to China @ $2.15 bil including $881 mil soybeans, $190 mil corn , about double that of July. YTD ag exports to China @ $9.6 bil

Thursday, October 8, 2020

& will accelerate fast as record Q4 sales needed to meet Phase 1 goal.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/column-u.s.-farm-exports-to-china-hit-new-august-record-thanks-to-soybeans-braun-2020-10-0

 

Dec Chicago wheat traded above $6 today, at the upper level of short-term channel and keeps the 4-year uptrend alive. Dry weather in Russia &......

Wednesday, October 7, 2020

 .....region is tightening world supplies. Russia planning on setting grain export quota for the first half of 2021!

 

Soybean futures open interest topped 1 million for the first time ever! Nov at new contract high. Will #USDA surprise for the 2nd consecutive time....

Tuesday, October 6, 2020

..... in less than 2 weeks? In Oct. WASDE crop report, trade expects lower 20/21 U.S. corn & soybean yields and ending stocks, and lower ending stocks for wheat.

 

CFTC Sept. 29th, Managed Money net buyers of corn, soybean & products, &Cattle. Soybeans closing in on record long and likely already there post......

Friday, October 2, 2020

.... USDA Sept 30th Grain Stocks report. Funds will be in for more positioning ahead of next week's crop report

 

USDA pork cutout jumps +$4.28 today to $95.65. That's a climb of +$33.05 since early July. As exports also roar on hog futures find support,....

Thursday, October 1, 2020

 .... especially as futures have a steep discount to cash. Demand is King!

 

2021 July Corn Futures hit $4.00/bu intraday high today a 7-month high!

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Corn futures rallied today after a bullish USDA Sept. 1 stocks report surprise.

 

USDA Sept. 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report & U.S. whaet production below expectations & BULLISH!

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

September 1 U.S. stocks came in below pre-report expectations for corn down 255 millio0n bushels, soybeans down 53 million bushels and wheat down 83 million bushels.

USDA revised June 1 stocks which contributed to the shocking surprise in corn numbers with June 1 U.S. corn stocks revised down 205 million bushels, soybeans down 4.6 million bushels and wheat down 15.9 million bushels.

U.S. wheat production come I below trade estimates and 5% below a year ago.

 

With dry weather forecasted for most of Oct for US Corn Belt, we may be on pace for 90+% harvest completed for US corn & soybeans by end of Oct?

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Recently, harvest pace for corn was strong in 2015 & soys in 2010

 

Argentina & South Brazil received weekend rains but key corn & soy producing center west & center-south Brazil remain dry & slowing pace of planting..

Monday, September 28, 2020

.... with little to no help showing in the forecast. More precip is needed there!

 

From Wall Street Journal- CME & Nasdaq plan to launch WATER futures. 1-of-a-kind allowing protection against price swings, & risk-management tool....

Friday, September 25, 2020

Veles Water Ltd created a water-price index to which the futures will be tied.

 

Markit Group forecast higher Y/Y US 2021 corn (93.7 mil vs 92 in 2020) & soybean acreage (87.1 vs 83.5 in 2020)! 2021 corn crop @ huge 16.61 bil bu,..

Monday, September 21, 2020

.... 181 bpa; & 2020 @ 14.888 bil bu, 178.7 bpa. 2021 soy @ 4.48 bil bu, 52 bpa; & 2020 @ 4.306 bil bu, 52.1 bpa.

 

Farm Futures survey (1,044 producers)- 2021 US corn acreage estimated @ 91.8 mil acres vs 92 this year, soybeans @ 87.9 mil, up +4.1 Y/Y, &.....

Friday, September 18, 2020

.... winter wheat @ 31.2 mil (1st acreage increase in 7 years), +2.13% Y/Y)

 

USDA weekly exports for Sept 10 showed US #pork sales to #China at 35,900 MT, which is among the biggest in 2020. Garmany ASF factor .....

Thursday, September 17, 2020

..... As question marks over China's pork imports from Germany (due to ASF) get bigger, could this be "the factor" that boosts U.S. exports from here on?

 

Strong winds & heavy rains in China's northeast grain-heavy region may hurt 10 MMT of corn, 4% production. The region was hit by 3 typhoons in Aug....

Wednesday, September 16, 2020

.... , causing flooded fields during crop-maturity, limiting harvest pace & test weights.
it.reuters.com/article/idAFL4

 

COVID-19 will cause a 20% drop in global ethanol production, says US Grains Council. They expect a loss of 23 bil litres of production

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

CFTC data for September 8th shows Managed Money Funds net long position at 1-year high in corn & 2-year high in soybeans

Monday, September 14, 2020

+14.8k corn wk/wk to net long 33.4k & +11.3k soybeans wk/wk to net long 173.9k.

 

Friendly USDA Sept. WASDE Crop Report- Lower 20/21 US corn & soybeans yield & ending stocks. Dec corn closes week up @ $3.685 & Nov soy $9.96

Friday, September 11, 2020

20/21 U.S. corn yield @ 178.5 bpa & soybeans at 51.9 bpa, both close to trade expectations. Ending stocks came in lower than expected for soybeans & higher than expected for corn. 

 

ASF detected in wild boar carcass in EU's top pork producer Germany's eastern state. Lean hogs break higher with another gap and closed limit up!

Thursday, September 10, 2020

Optimism for more export demand (especially from China) for US pork?

 

USDA weekly Crop Progress, Sept 6th- Corn @ 61% G-E, off -1 wk/wk & 5th drop in a row. Soybeans 65% G-E, off -1 wk/wk & 4th drop in a row!

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

Winter wheat 5% planted & spring wheat 82% harvested

 

The 2020 5th Great Ontario Yield Tour final average corn yield is 183.3 bpa!

Thursday, September 3, 2020

Thank you all who participated hosts, sponsors, scouts & farmers!

 

2020 5th Annual Great Ontario Yield Tour final average soybean yield is a NEW record high at 53.2 bpa!

Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Thank you all who participated hosts, sponsors, scouts & farmers!

 

USDA Crop Progress- Aug 30, U.S. corn rated 62% G-E, down -2% from last week but 1% better than trade expectations. Soybeans dropped -3% to 66% G-E,..

Monday, August 31, 2020

... which was in line with expectations. Crop conditions at this time of year are likely less helpful as crops start to dry down and mature. 

 

Pro Farmer crop tour today pegged the US Corn avg yield at 177.5 bpa (USDA @ 181.8) & soybeans at 52.5 bpa (USDA @ 53.3)......

Friday, August 21, 2020

US Corn Production estimated by tour at 14.82 bil bu (USDA @ 15.278 in Aug report), & Soybean Production at 4.362 bil bu (USDA @ 4.425).

 

USDA Crop Progress today rated corn 69% G-E (-2% wk/wk) & 10% P-VP (+2%); soybeans 72% G-E (-2%) & 7% P-VP (+2%), on derecho damage

Monday, August 17, 2020

Iowa corn after #derecho fell -10% to 59% G-E, soys fell -8% to 62% G-E. Illinois corn also -3% G-E.

 

2.5 - 4.5 bpa 20/21 US #corn yield loss possible, says StoneX due to derecho storm. 200-400 mil bu corn destroyed? Iowa's Ag Sec feels 10 mil acres...

Thursday, August 13, 2020

.... in Iowa hit. More acres impacted in Illinois & Midwest

 

Dirty ridge over US crop area next 10 days. Temps seasonably warm & scattered showers/thunderstorms causing variable rain. Majority light precip....

Friday, August 7, 2020

Ridge stable & significant late next week-Aug 20, more stressful for 'unwatered' crops! 18% of US corn & 13% soybeans in drought

 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 19/20 Argentina corn crop est @ 50 MMT has eclipsed the soybeans crop @ 49.6 MMT for 1st time ....

Thursday, August 6, 2020

.... since weekly records began, due to more harvested area up +19.8% Y/Y

 

Farmlink-sponsored Canadian Crop Tour projects much bigger Western Canadian wheat, canola, oats & barley crops than AAFC on ....

Wednesday, August 5, 2020

.... much stronger yields. August is in for a strong finish?

 

Pvt. analysts expect higher US 20/21 corn & Soybean yields than USDA, with many above 180 bpa corn & 52 bpa soys- big record crops! ....

Wednesday, August 5, 2020

Too many leaning too much to the bearish side of the price boat? Will Aug WASDE surprise, from oversold levels?

 

According to CFTC COT report, as of 28th July, 2020, managed money funds are now net long in canola, which is the first time since end-October 2018...

Friday, July 31, 2020

.... For the week, funds bought net +19,581 contracts.

 

ADM CEO says that the worst of COVID-19 Ag demand loss is over, while the US is set for large Q4 exports on firm China demand & .....

Thursday, July 30, 2020

.... tight South American supplies.

 

US Q2-2020 GDP slumped -32.9% Y/Y vs expected -34.7%; 1Q-2020 Final -5%. Sharpest drop since at least 1940s! Personal spending dropped -34.6%,....

Thursday, July 30, 2020

.... also a record! Longer COVID-19 lasts without vaccine, longer US economic output remains below pre-crisis levels?

 

North Dakota State Uni Crop specialists- dry June weather in western ND & excess rains in southeast will keep ND spring wheat yields lower Y/Y? .....

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

..... 2020 yield likely near 45 bpa vs 49 bpa last year. ND spring wheat crop est. at 263 mil bu?

 

USDA Crop Progress, 26th July- both corn & soybean conditions uptick +3% to 72% G-E vs. expectations of steady 69%, reflecting improvement .......

Monday, July 27, 2020

..... from recent rains. In 5-day forecast, heavy precip for center of US but missing most major Midwest growing areas?

 

CFTC COT, 21 July, net managed money in SRW #wheat back to net long after spending 9 weeks in net short. Soybean oil saw a steep 26.7K net buying ....

Saturday, July 25, 2020

..... for the week. Strong veg oil complex buying seen in canola of +12.67K net weekly buying.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Illinois rated 8.5/10. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Friday, July 24, 2020

Both the early May cold snap & early June heat may have reduced top end yields. Lots of variability with storm damage but recovery looking strong. We rate the state 8.5 out of 10 with above avg. potential.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - In the state of North Dakota. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

We rate the state a 8 out of 10 & could add to the national yields despite lower corn acres

 

Malaysian palm oil futures rises on production issues in Indonesia and labour shortages in Malaysia, supports veg oil, including canola .........

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

higher soy oil also supporting a break out in canola futures above resistance

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - In the state of Minnesota. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Plenty of moisture corn is 1-2 weeks behind for 50% of the acres. MN should be able to contribute to the national yield & rank the state an 8.5 out of 10.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - In the state of Iowa. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

North to center east/west is the garden spot but wind/hail damage in North/East IA will shave top end yields. South east/west too dry. We rank the state a 9 out of 10 with strong yield potential in 2020.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - In the state of Wisconsin. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

WI was a hit & miss a crop of 2 tails depending on planting date, no stress. Corn production ranked 9th, soybeans 12th. We rank state a 7.5 out of 10 with avg. yield potential. 2019 corn yield 166, soys 47.

 

US Midwest hot, humid weather stressing reproductive corn & soybeans in low soil moisture areas. U.S. Drought Monitor,......

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

..... 15% of corn area experiencing drought, & 9% of soybean area. Dry weather prevails in Midwest, despite earlier showers and thunderstorms

 

China bought another 1.6 MMT (63 mil bu) of US corn- 4th largest 1-day sale ever, & takes China's total purchase in 1 week over 3 MMT ...........

Tuesday, July 14, 2020

...... They bought 2.362 MMT for 20/21 MY. 

China also bought 129,000 MT of US soybeans.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - In the state of Missouri. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Monday, July 13, 2020

Pollination has already occurred in corn. Blooming in soybeans but its early weather in July/August & precip is most critical for yield. There is no margin for error.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Concluding tour in Kansas. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Monday, July 13, 2020

Rating the state, 6 out of 10. Started too wet, got too dry extended period of 3 weeks. Needs timely rains thru Jul/Aug/good finish to beat 2014 record yield of 149 bpa corn & 48 bpa soybeans in 2016.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Concluding tour in Nebraska. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Monday, July 13, 2020

Rating state, 7 out of 10. Irrigated acres will offset dry land yields but avg. Western KS dry, topsoil moisture 50% adequate-surplus down from 96%. Corn pollinating in heat, late due to cold snap mid-May.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Concluding tour in South Dakota. Thank You Sponsor www.genesis.ag

Monday, July 13, 2020

Despite too much moisture “rain makes grain” rating state, 7.5 out of 10 avg/above avg. Crops are a week behind with minor issues, but a lack of extreme heat & timely rains should help crop recover.

 

2020 July WASDE neutral/friendly- US corn ending stocks bit below trade est. in both 19/20 & 20/21. 19/20 & 20/21 US soy stocks above est. 20/21 Wheat

Friday, July 10, 2020

....ending stocks were slightly below trade estimates.

Due to the June acreage numbers, 1 billion bushels were cut from the U.S. 20/21 corn crop productions estimate and 20/21 U.S. soybean production was slightly raised. But both were a bit below trade expectations. No changes were made to yield.

 

Accuweather- Meteorologists warn that ongoing heat a& drought in parts of US Southwest & Plains states are likely to get worse.....

Monday, July 6, 2020

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Top observations for Central/Southern IL. Thank You Sponsor @genesisaglife

Thursday, July 2, 2020

Corn is behind for this time of the year. There is higher risk of hot/dry weather affecting the critical pollination stage mid/end of July. Timely rains reduced drought.

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Top 3 observations for Southern IN. Thank You Sponsor @genesisaglife

Wednesday, July 1, 2020

1. Farmers planted soybeans earlier than corn due to cold/wet & frost during first week of May 

2. Early planted corn 1-week behind, late planted 3-4 

3. Timely rains & yield potential remains strong

 

Bullish 2020 USDA June Acreage report overshadows Quarterly Grain Stocks report. Grain prices close sharply higher....

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Super reports! The 2020 end-of-June Acreage & Quarterly Grain Stocks  reports release lived up to its reputation as a widow-maker, finding a surprisingly low amount of corn acres and an equally startling higher quarterly US corn inventory as of June 1st. With the market leaning aggressively short with very little hope of a rally just a few short days ago, the bullish acreage data easily overshadowed the bearish quarterly stocks report, in terms of market impact.

The report also showed a lower-than-expected gain in acreage for soybeans, and a significant cut to current stock levels amid increased buying from China over the past couple of months. 

All Wheat acreage too was lower than expected and lower than March intentions, while the June wheat stocks were higher than expected. 

This was the first shoe to drop to change the bearish sentiment. Now, the second shoe will be the hot and dry weather in the coming week. If the the unfavourable conditions are extended during July, $4.00 corn & $10.00 soys are not out of the question, as a summer 2020 top.

 

Stats Canada 2020 June Acreage- canola, barley, oats & durum acres higher than spring intentions; corn, soybean & spring wheat acres lower.....

Monday, June 29, 2020

... Farmers continue to face their own unique COVID-19 challenges in production & distribution

 

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Top 3 observations for State of Ohio. Thank You Sponsor @genesisaglife

Monday, June 29, 2020

1. Corn plants much shorter than expected, planted later, very little head high corn by July 1 

2. No crop stress 

3. Large % corn pollination end Jul/early Aug. Rank state 6 out of 10 but lots of potential

 

USDA June Hogs & Pigs report showed higher than expected total inventory (105%), for breeding (99%) & for marketing (106%)- which mostly ......

Thursday, June 25, 2020

... accounts for the backed-up hogs due to COVID-19? Euthanized pigs & low prices likely caused Jun-Aug & Sept-Nov farrowing of just 95%

 

China buying big amounts of US & Ukraine corn? 1 MMT likely bought from both. Some say 8-10 cargoes sold from Ukraine's new crop & 10 from U.S. for...

Thursday, June 25, 2020

.... Oct, Nov & Dec. Key is that buying happened! Good News! USDA weekly corn exports report today showed Chinese business!

 

US considering $3.1 bil in new tariffs on French, German, Spanish, & UK goods- olives, coffee, chocolate, beer, gin, trucks, machinery, etc, due to...

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

.... long-standing dispute with EU over subsidies to large civil aircraft manufacturers
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/us-assessing-3point1-billion-in-tariffs-on-france-germany-spain-the-uk.html

 

Heat wave caused unusual 100 degrees F in Siberia (one of the coldest places on earth) during June 20-21 as YTD extreme temp anomalies continue.......

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

.... This is the hottest on record anywhere in the Arctic. Heat spots also seen elsewhere close to North Pole

 

Milk futures V-shaped COVID-19 recovery is +74% in just over 2 months! Could see record prices as rally is yet to catch up to record cheese prices ...

Monday, June 22, 2020

... But with RSI near 80, is this a 2nd opportunity to manage risk?

 

Rough day in the market as Dow fell ~1,900 points (down 7%)- worst day since March! Crude oil fell almost 10%. & US$ was nearly 1% higher. ....

Thursday, June 11, 2020

.... Selloff was sparked by some concern over an increase in COVID-19 in select 'reopened' US states?

 

2020 June USDA WASDE crop report friendly vs. expectations for both corn/soybeans but bearish wheat

Thursday, June 11, 2020

In U.S. ending stocks the trade was too heavy projecting corn and new crop soybeans with 20/21 at 395 million bushels a 3 handle. Wheat comes in bigger than expected.

The 19/20 corn crop was reduced bu 46 mbu (including a 10$ cut in North Dakota). Natioanl yield cut to 167.4 (was 167.8). 19/20 corn for ethanol cut by 50 to 4.9 billion bushels. 19/20 exports unchanged at 1.775 bbu, 19/20 feed & residual unchanged at 5.7 billion bushels.

The 202021 U.S. wheat crop is expected to be a bit larger than last year vs. expectations especially for HRW wheat. Total production is seen 2% lighter than last year.

World stocks came in lighter than expected for both corn and soybeans, but new-crop wheat was much larger. Big moves in 20/21 wheat production: Australia 26 mmt (was 24), India 107.2 mmt (was 103), China 136 mmt (was 135), Ukraine 26.5 mmt (was 28), and EU 141 mmt (was 143).

USDA made no changes to the 19/20 corn crops in Argentina and Brazil, but they reduced Argentina’s soybeans to 50 mmt. No change for Brazil soybeans.

Corn up 1, soys down 1 and wheat down 7. Markets focus will now turn to weather and the more market moving reports at the end of the month the June Acreage and stock reports. The missing link is the Chinese demand that remains a "wildcard" and a hot and dry weather forecast that last for 2-4 weeks to spark the funds into a short covering rally.

 

US Fed June FOMC kept funds rate steady 0%-0.25% & will remain low until '22. COVID-19 poses considerable risks to economy medium-term, .....

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

..... weighing on growth, inflation & jobs. Expect recovery in 2nd half of '20, & GDP bouncing to 5% in '21
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/fed-meeting-decision-interest-rates.html

 

CONAB in June raised Brazil's 19/20 soybean crop (on higher yield) to 120.424 MMT (USDA @ 124 MMT) but reduced corn crop (lower yield & ....

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

.... acreage) to 100.99 MMT (USDA @ 101)- due to drop in safrinha corn. Trade expects USDA to reduce both crops in June WASDE

 

OPEC+ (incl. Russia), on Saturday, agreed to extend record crude oil cuts until the end of July & prolong the deal!

Monday, June 8, 2020

OPEC+ record deal to cut oil outout & reduce global supplies by 10% helped crude futures to +100% rally in last 2 months. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/06/opec-and-allies-reportedly-agree-to-extend-record-production-cut.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail

 

USDA slaughter last week of hogs & cattle is almost back to normal vs last year- great news for the industry! ...

Monday, June 8, 2020

Although YTD is lagging, that can be cleared with aggressive Saturday kills. Last week, Saturday hogs kills at 323,000 was more than 6 times Y/Y.

 

Are we seeing the seasonal summer grain rally? Seasonal last year was during mid-May when managed money funds were net short 322,215 in corn .....

Friday, June 5, 2020

.... this year, as of early June, funds are net short 282,266. Time to cover them shorts?

 

Dryness continues in Southern Plains- West Texas with little rainfall. Drought monitor shows drought expanding, supporting HRW wheat & cotton futures

Friday, June 5, 2020

July canola rebounds off $456. Is chart reversing despite Canada-China political tensions? Prairie planting slows due to rain .....

Thursday, June 4, 2020

 Producers in Manitoba are about 88% done planting this year’s crops. Across the province, canola is approximately 85% - 95% planted. However, the southwest and northwest regions are behind that pace.

 

OPEC's Saudi & non-OPEC Russia have preliminarily agreed to extend existing record crude oil production cuts by 1 month .....

Wednesday, June 3, 2020

.... Date of meeting to finalize deal uncertain. Some feel OPEC+ will extend commitment to reduce oil production by 9.7 mbd during July-Sept.

 

Stats Canada 2020 June Acreage- canola, barley, oats & durum acres higher than spring intentions;corn, soybeans & spring wheat acres lower.....

Monday, June 1, 2020

.... Farmers continue to face their own unique COVID-19 challenges in production & distribution

 

China asked state-owned COFCO & Sinograin to halt buying US soybeans & pork as US eliminated special treatment for Hong Kong to punish China.....

Monday, June 1, 2020

 Large volume corn & cotton also put on hold. China bought $3 bil worth of US goods thus far out of a total $36.5. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-agriculture-idUSKBN238264

 

USDA Cattle on Feed and slaughter data suggest that the trade estimate of 1 mil heads of cattle backed up is as much as 50% overstated?

Friday, May 29, 2020

U.S. cattle got backed up due to COVID-19 packer shutdown.

 

IGC pegged 20/21 global corn production at 1.169 bil MT, up +11 MMT over prior outlook; wheat production at 766 MMT, up +2 MMT over prior. But ....

Thursday, May 28, 2020

.... a hot & dry summer can alter those plans? 20/21 global corn production increase is led by higher production in US & China.

 

Iowa Ag dept. announced plans to compensate farmers that must euthanize their hogs because of COVID-19. They requested $24 mil to help farmers.....

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

USDA 24 May 2020: 1st corn condition 70% G-E (2nd lowest in 6 yrs) vs average 73%; emergence 64% vs avg 58%. Need more sunshine ....

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

... after early planting. Corn & soybean planting ahead of avg. Spring wheat planting still behind avg. Winter wheat G-E +2% to 54%

 

Stocks rally as Dow breaks above key resistance at 25,000 & approaching the 100-day moving average. S&P broke above 3,000. DOW Betting on a vaccine...

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

 Economy reopening & spending increases, but we need to avoid a 2nd wave of COVID-19.

 

China will work to implement Phase 1 trade deal with US despite COVID-19 setbacks; and will abandon growth target due to uncertainty & boost stimulus

Friday, May 22, 2020

They aim to boost economic & trade cooperation with other countries. 

 

With 1 week left before June, it does not look like the 2020 spring wheat acres will get planted in the largest state ND. Need dry weather ....

Thursday, May 21, 2020

.... for next few weeks to dry out soils. lt looks like a lot of prevent plant acres in ND.

 

Kansas Wheat Commission 3-day crop tour by Kansas St Univ estimated north-central Kansas HRW wheat yields at 41.1 bpa and 51.7 bpa in the northwest...

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

..... Variable on Day 1! Drought, freeze damage and stripe rust weigh on the 2020 crop, supporting futures

 

USDA COVID-19 assistance program CFAP to provide $16 bil in relief to US farmers & ranchers. Farmers to Families Food Box program will purchase .....

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

..... $3 billion in fresh produce, dairy & meat. May 26 onwards, USDA FSA will accept applications from producers who suffered losses.

 

CFTC net managed money (for week May 12) saw serious buying in oilseeds vs. sell-off in grains (except oats). Funds preferring soybeans vs corn? ...

Friday, May 15, 2020

..... Cattle saw strong fund buying, hogs too but muted.

 

USDA's May WASDE- US 20/21 new crop maybe the biggest we see for the crop year. IEG Vantage (Informa) is projecting lower acreage for corn, ....

Thursday, May 14, 2020

.... spring wheat & cotton, but soybeans gain. Expect USDA downgrades as we go further into the cropping season? 

 

2020 USDA MAY Crop Report better than expected corn, bullish soys & bearish wheat but global numbers weighing on corn/wheat

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

USDA sees 2020 U.S. production of corn and soybeans rising substantially over the 2019 levels. USDA ending stock for 2019/20 and 2020/21: Old crop corn well below expectations but soybeans well above. Wheat larger in both years, but new crop soybeans lower than expected. New crop corn right around the trade guess. Trade estimates for U.S. wheat were pretty close to what the USDA reported at a 1.866-billion-bushel crop and the smallest in 3 years.

USDA’s global ending stocks came in much higher than trade expectations for both years for corn and wheat and for old crop soybeans. New crop soybeans were well below expectations even with a new crop at 131 mmt in Brazil. China’s soy consumption seen rising 7.2 mmt in 20/21.

USDA did not touch 2019/20 Argentina or Brazil corn production, but soybeans came down a collective 1.5 mmt. USDA also bumped 2018/19 Brazil soy to 119 mmt from 117 mmt.

5 U.S. Northern States were resurveyed in April due to corn still standing in the fields and it turns out that so far there was not much change in yields or harvested acreage. MI & WI -2 bpa, MN, ND, NC & SD -1 bpa. Net impact was a decline of 0.2 bpa for the U.S. corn yield and dropped the Dec 1 corn stocks only by 17 million bushels!

 

China announced list of 79 US produced goods that will be exempt from retaliatory import tariffs starting on May 19, 2020 & running thru May 18, 2021

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-tariffs/china-announces-new-tariff-waivers-for-some-u-s-imports-idUSKBN22O0MQ

 

USDA Crop Progress, 10 May- Winter wheat at 53% G-E is lowest so far this year. corn at 67% planted & soybeans at 38% ....

Monday, May 11, 2020

..... are behind trade expectations, but above average. Spring wheat at 42% planted, lagging behind average. 

 

Stats Canada 2020 spring planting intentions sees lower than expected canola acreage and higher wheat acreage. This along with tighter 19/20 stocks...

Thursday, May 7, 2020

.... makes the canola balance-sheet tighter. Good start to the new crop 20/21 marketing year!

 

North Dakota corn acres were expected to be 3.2 mil this year, off -8.6% Y/Y. But based on current conditions, their season maybe already over?.....

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

.... 2-3 more inches of rains fell recently & more in the forecast. Acres could fall below 1 million? Can't catch a break! 

 

President Trump's government officials suggest that they won’t seek to punishChina economically if they abide by Phase 1 trade commitments.....

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

.... made in January, despite U.S. allegations that China mishandled the COVID-19 outbreak.

 

IGC 20/21 world grain production down to 2.218 bil MT, -5 MMT vs March on global dry conditions. wheat down -0.5% to 764.4 MMT, corn +1 MMT to......

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

..... 1.158 bil MT, soybeans -0.4% to 364.4 MMT. Lower COVID-19 demand raise global grain stocks +1.9% to 616.5 MMT.

 

USDA as of May 3rd reported strong 2020 US planting! Soybeans at record 23% planted for this date. Corn +23 wk/wk to 51%, .....

Monday, May 4, 2020

.... which is up +30% Y/Y & +12% vs average.  Winter wheat 55% G-E, improved +1% wk/wk.

 

U.S. pork exports are on fire! So far in 2020, April saw the two highest weekly figures for US total pork sales and sales to China. .....

Thursday, April 30, 2020

... U.S. total pork sales to all countries at 1,044,44 MT is up +58% over last year! Will geopolitics derail this?

 

DOW jumps 500+ points as US top doctor Dr. Fauci said drug remdesivir shows clear-cut positive effect when treating COVID-19 ...

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

... This is despite US Q1 GDP dropping -4.8%, vs expected -3.5%. Also, US Fed pledges to keep interest rates low until full employment and inflation returns.

 

US weekly ethanol production fell another -4.6% to 537,000 bbl/day rate, but fall is slowing? Positive signs as stocks fall -4.9% off record-high....

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

According to EIA's weekly report on 29th April, dropping production & rising demand caused stocks to fall -4.9% off record-high to 1.105 bil gallons.Ethanol futures recover from bottom.

 

CFTC corn- trade est. for net short as of April 28 are -215,000, 2nd most net short for this time period; 2nd only to last year's record -322,215! ...

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

... CFTC corn net short according to the latest COT report is at -161,057 as of April 21.

 

USDA Crop Progress, April 26th- corn planting accelerates +20 wk/wk to 27% as Midwest farmers try to get max seed in the ground, keeping 2019's ......

Monday, April 27, 2020

..... wet fiasco in mind. Soybeans 8% planted, +6 wk/wk. Spring wheat 14% planted,+7 wk/wk. Winter wheat G-E deteriorates -3 to 54% G-E.

 

USDA pork belly values put in a V-shaped recovery, along with cutouts? An indicator that demand will return? 2H-2020 should be better than 1H-2020 ...

Friday, April 24, 2020

..... when the economy, & restaurants/food service, reopens gradually and carefully post-COVID? 

 

Priority #1 should be to get the still-imposed 25% Chinese tariff on U.S. pork removed & double exports to China!

Thursday, April 23, 2020

Even with a U.S./China trade deal commitment, US still has a 25% tariff on Chinese metals & China still has a 25% duty on U.S. pork.....

 

China preparing to buy 30 MMT of US Ag for state-held reserves. 20 MMT (787 mil bu) corn, 10 MMT (387 mil bu) soybeans, 1 MMT cotton. ...

Thursday, April 23, 2020

This more than offsets the loss in US ethanol demand of 600 mil bu! Now we need to reopen economy & get people driving & flying again!

 

Similar to pork, US beef cutouts soar. Near-term cattle futures low likely in, supporting V-shaped recovery? ...

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

... COVID-19 shut down processing plant capacity (10-20%), which lowers cattle slaughter, in turn reducing beef availability and raised beef prices. Cattle futures discount to cash is supportive. 

 

US pork cutout surge higher from COVID19 pressure- up +$24.15 since 15th April to $72.98 on 22nd April. This should encourage higher hog slaughter ...

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

.... at functioning packers and offset packing capacity loss (10%) due to closures. Demand continues to support pork prices.

 

USDA crop progress, April 19th: corn 7% planted, -2% vs. avg, soybeans 2% planted & winter wheat G-E fell -5% to 57%. More fuel for the wheat rally!

Monday, April 20, 2020

...Spring wheat planting lags. Could add to wheat's rally.

 

Crude oil drops to a record low below 0 at -$7.50 a barrel as a slump in demand & 0 storage space making it worthless.....

Monday, April 20, 2020

.... Maybe we should store crude oil in storage bins instead of of corn?

 

Wheat futures soar up .24 as Russia will suspend exports until July 1st when Q2 export quota is exhausted by mid-May

Monday, April 20, 2020

2020 Russian wheat crop pegged 77.2 MMT, off -2.4 MMT vs previous est.

It opens the door for higher U.S. & Canadian wheat demand.

Ukraine also threatening to ban exports if pace too high! Limit up on wheat futures is $0.55/bu.

The last time Russia banned wheat exports in 2010 wheat soared to $9-11/bu!

Add some dry weather in the coming months and smaller Black Sea wheat production and you have recipe for higher futures to ration demand most likely above the mid-Jan high and finally above $6.00/bu!

 

Dow stock index continues recovery for 4th consecutive week, closing above key weekly resistance & above 24,000. It opened gap up .,.

Friday, April 17, 2020

.... & the climb is +6,073 since low on 23rd March. Supported by positive COVID-19 drug trial 'news' & Trump's plans to re-open US economy.

 

A Chicago hospital treating COVID-19 patients with Remdesivir in a trial were recovering rapidly from severe symptoms. DOW futures rally 900 points...

Thursday, April 16, 2020

... after report says drug showing effectiveness against coronavirus.

 

USDA lowers US corn ethanol usage in April WASDE, ending stocks rise. Will this be the steepest reduction on account of COVID-19? ...

Thursday, April 9, 2020

....  By the time demand returns, more than 50% of US 200 ethanol plants may be idled/shutdown? Market attention turns to weather & seasonality.

2020 USDA APRIL WASDE 19/20 U.S. CROP ESTIMATES (Bil Bu)

U.S CARRYOUT USDA APRIL TRADE AVERAGE USDA MARCH
CORN 2.092 2.000 1.892
SOYBEANS 0.480 0.425 0.425
WHEAT 0.970 0.940 0.940

Source: USDA, QTPlus

 

China Ag ministry raised 19/20 corn import forecast +1 MMT to 4 MMT (USDA still at 7 MMT), on increase in shipments due to Phase 1 Trade Deal. ...

Thursday, April 9, 2020

.... & lowered 19/20 industrial use by -2 MMT to 82.5 MMT, due to lower oil prices & slowing economy.

 

EIA weekly ethanol output fell another -20% to record low levels, 672,000 bbl/day yields just 197 mil gallons ethanol weekly, ...

Thursday, April 9, 2020

.... consuming 68 mil bu feedstock. Blending collapses. Inventories up +5.3% wk/wk to 1.14 billion gallons, also record! Demand destruction in corn.

 

Crude oil jumps +12% as Saudi & Russia have removed obstacles to their agreement with a new oil deal to deepen cuts as much as 20 mil barrels per day.

Thursday, April 9, 2020

... Global demand has fallen as much as 30 mbd! U.S. gasoline demand is down over 51%!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/oil-jumps-ahead-of-make-or-break-opec-meeting.html

 

USDA weekly (Apr 2) export sales- blowout corn at 2.458 MMT. China bought 504,000 MT new crop corn, ...

Thursday, April 9, 2020

.... 186,000 MT sorghum, 144,000 MT old crop & 66,000 MT new crop soys, 38,700 MT pork & shipments of 16,300 MT pork.

 

Modello Group part of the brewing giant AB Inbev will shutter production of corona beer as the Mexican government deems the operation non essential!

Tuesday, April 7, 2020

...Lime demand set to plummet!

 

Saudi & Russia are close to deal on crude oil output cuts to reduce global glut. G20 nations including the U.S. may need to follow suit? ...

Monday, April 6, 2020

....Global oil demand plunged over 30 mil barrels per day equivalent for daily output of Russia, Saudi Arabia & U.S. combined.

 

U.S. EIA weekly ethanol production fell a record 17% wk/wk to 840K bbl/day, i.e. 247 mil gallons weekly consuming 86 mil bu of feedstock. Stocks rose

Friday, April 3, 2020

....+6.5% wk/wk to 1.08 bil gallons, a record! Crude oil recovery doesn't help demand but could put bottom for futures.

 

Crude oil soared +34% to today’s high for best day on record as Trump said Russia-Saudi o/p truce likely; & China to buy upto +100 mil barrels in '20?

Thursday, April 2, 2020

USDA stuns the market, reporting 2020 U.S. corn acres up +8% to 97 million acres!

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

The USDA/NASS farmer survey stunned the market with intended U.S. corn plantings of 96.99 million acres, up 8% on the year and up 3% from trade estimates. The high in the trade range was 97. Corn acres are set to rise over last year in every major state except Kansas, North Dakota, and Kentucky.

All U.S. wheat plantings came in lower than trade estimates at 44.66 vs. expected at 44.98 and total 2020 U.S. soybeans coming in at 83.810 vs. expected at 84.87 million acres.

Quarterly grain stocks report for corn was better at 7.953 seeing some disappearance during the quarter while soybeans slightly higher at 2.253 and wheat also slightly lower at 1.142 billion bushels. Cotton acres surprised at 13.700 up 1 million vs. pre-report estimates at 12.700.

 

Ontario farmers plan on planting record corn acres in 2020 at 2,380,146 million acres according to a Farms.com Risk Management survey!

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Canola futures soar on reports that China will resume buying from Canada. $2 billion worth of trade comes back to life?....

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

.... During COVID-19, China’s oilseed processors struggle with the lowest soybean stocks since 2010? 

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/china-to-resume-imports-of-canadian-canola-sources

 

Major wheat exporters Ukraine & Russia stocks-to-use ratio at multi-year lows & falling. Global wheat prices soar. ....

Monday, March 30, 2020

... Russia mulling over limiting Russian grain exports to 7 mmt in April-June. UN FAO warning of possible global food shortage if COVID-19 extends for long. 

 

1 mil unharvested 19/20 canola acres left in Manitoba & Saskatchewan will not be harvested & will be just burned down. ........

Friday, March 27, 2020

.....It will amount to a small dent of approx 40 mil bushels, but nonetheless tightens the beginning stocks for 20/21, when we are already reducing acreage.

 

In next week's USDA planting intentions report, trade 20/21 U.S. corn acreage to be higher than USDA's Feb outlook numbers; soybeans....

Thursday, March 26, 2020

...... to be lower & wheat to be similar. The new crop soybean/corn ratio is at 2.394, marginally favouring more corn?

 

Data shows air pollution increasing in China post lockdown- nitrogen dioxide levels are rising as the economy is slowly getting back on track....

Thursday, March 26, 2020

.....Besides the reality that the pollution issue is resurfacing, a silver lining could be that the economy is slowly getting back on its feet?

 

COVID19 took 67 days from first reported to reach 100,000 cases, 11 days for 2nd 100K, 4 days for 3rd 100K & just 3 days for 4th 100K! ....

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

WHO said its possible to change the trajectory by continuing rigorous testing & contact-tracing. What matters most is what we do now!

 

Sharply lower ethanol demand will reduce the supply of DDG, for export to China. This will increase demand for soybean meal, futures spiking......

Monday, March 23, 2020

... Chinese feed demand is rebuilding following their own coronavirus disruption and supplies on hand have grown tight in the north.

 

We may be looking at a 4-5 MMT drop in the 19/20 South American corn crop & a 9-10 MMT drop in soybean crop, due to dry weather ........

Friday, March 20, 2020

.....Dry weather in South America has wiped away the previously expected record production numbers.

 

Concerns over persistent dryness in key US wheat regions & ideas that COVID-19 will lead to rolling back of trade tariffs limited pressure on wheat...

Thursday, March 19, 2020

.... EU & UK SRW wheat production forecasts were lowered & rumors China is buying US Ag?

 

2020 USDA Feb. Crop Report a dud with no big surprises and mostly neutral BUT ....

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

USDA did increase the 19/20 Brazil soybean crop to a massive record 125 mmt from 123 last month. Global ending stocks for corn was lower than January but soybeans were up 2 mmt and wheat slightly lower.

USDA reduced U.S. 2019/20 ending stocks for wheat and soybeans (increase in exports for both), while corn stocks stayed the same at 1,892 billion bushels (reduction in exports offset by increase in use for ethanol). Production for all was left unchanged.

 

Crude oil prices could plunge even further after last weeks OPEC meeting Russia refused to cut production further

Monday, February 10, 2020

Higher to record U.S. shale production and oil demand destruction from coronavirus fears has led crude oil prices to plunge over $15/barrel thus far in 2020 and is on target to fall even further and test the $45 - $46 support level not seen since December of 2018!

As the world’s largest oil consumer, a slowdown in China’s economy suddenly has a real potential of impacting oi demand growth by as much as 20% in the 1st quarter but could be short-lived as flu season peaks and comes to an end as temps start tow warm up. OPEC now has to contend with U.S. shale growth and a short-term impact on demand.

 At last weeks emergency meeting OPED had hoped to cut production by an additional 600,000 bpd but Russia refused to participate ahead of next meeting in March.

 

U.S pork belly values' rocky start to 2020 continues. It is trying to put together a comeback, which will in turn support pork cutouts? ...

Friday, February 7, 2020

... Strong domestic demand for flavourful meat & exports remain the key!

 

Palm oil futures are trying to consolidate & attempt a comeback, trying to break above resistance. Stronger palm oil will support canola futures, ...

Friday, February 7, 2020

.... on its own recovery climb higher.

 

Stats Canada grain stocks report for Dec. 31, 2019, surprised on canola, oats & barley to the downside, but higher on all wheat stocks. ...

Wednesday, February 5, 2020

.... There are still unharvested acres in Western Canada, hence ending stocks could fall further in future reports? 

 

After 60 days of waiting for Jan USDA reports, what a disappointment but 19/20 U.S. corn ending stocks are trending lower...

Monday, January 13, 2020

.... - 165 days of supply, Feb. should be lower after lower Quarterly stocks & global stocks down for 4th year - 34 days of supply - a 19-year low!

 

China's Vice-Premier Liu He to bring a trade delegation to Washington this week & expected to sign a phase 1 trade deal....

Monday, December 30, 2019

Deal details expected to be released then- expectations for significant Ag purchase ($40-$50 bil/year for the next 2 yrs?)

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/30/liu-he-to-sign-phase-one-trade-deal-in-washinton-this-week.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail

 

China's Finance Ministry said they will lower import tariffs on over 850 products starting from January 1, 2020

Monday, December 23, 2019

The removal will cover frozen pork and avocados, and some IT products 

 

2019 USDA Nov. crop report friendly corn and wheat vs. expectations, disappointing soybeans

Friday, November 8, 2019

As part of the snowfall in early October, USDA says that the resurvey in North Dakota and Minnesota did not suggest any changes to harvested area at this time so both corn and soybean harvested acres were left unchanged.

Soybean 19/20 ending stocks were up 15 million to 475 and worse than expected at 430. Yields and exports were left unchanged, crush down 15 million.

U.S. 19/20 corn ending stocks lower than last month down 19 million bushels but higher than expected at 1.820. Corn exports down 50, ethanol/feed & residual both down 25 each. U.S. corn yields drop 1.4 bpa to 167 vs. last month at 168.4.

All wheat 19/20 ending stocks down 29 million bushels vs. last month at 1,014 billion bushels with spring wheat production down 37 million. Seed down 7, food down 5 and yields up 0.1 to 51.7. 

World corn stocks for 19/20 come in well below trade expectations. Looks like a drop in the U.S. and a few reductions elsewhere. Soybeans and wheat up slightly from October.

 

China and the U.S. has agreed to cancel existing trade tariffs in phases

Thursday, November 7, 2019

Fresh hopes that a "Phase 1" trade deal will be signed in early December sent stock and commodity markets higher to start the day.

The proportion of tariffs on each side will be cancelled together; it is unclear if soybeans will find relief. There are indications that US poultry may be allowed into China for the first time since 2015.

The Trump administration has been putting increasing pressure on Beijing to curb massive subsidies to state-owned companies and stop the forced transfer of American technology to Chinese firms.

Analysts remain skeptical that a “phase one” trade deal will effectively tackle these issues, suggesting the two economic giants will need a more comprehensive agreement before market sentiment can be boosted sustainably.

 

Canada's Pork Council reports that issues that plagued pork exports to China have been resolved

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Expects more detailed information from the Canadian government soon.

 

USDA 2019 October Crop Report a bullish surprise for soybeans, bearish corn and wheat vs. expectations

Thursday, October 10, 2019

U.S. production is lower than in September, but by less than expected for corn and more than expected for soybeans. The 2019 US corn yield comes in at 168.4 market expected 167.5 last month 168.2 while soybean yields were dropped to 46.9 vs. last month at 47.9 and expected at 47.3.

USDA lowers 2019/20 ending stocks for U.S. corn at 1.962 billion but it much higher than expected but much lower for soybeans at 460 (game changing if we can get an interim or mini China/US trade deal this weekend) and an increase for wheat at 1.043 billion bushels. 

USDA lowers 2019/20 ending stocks for U.S. corn and soybeans, but makes an increase for wheat.

USDA cut 2019/20 world stocks for corn and soybeans but increased the supply of wheat.


 

USDA confirms largest US pork sale EVER to China in the week ended Oct. 3 at were largest EVER at 142,172 mt!

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Pork prices in China have soared over 139% in 2019.

 

According to Reuters , a US Chamber of Commerce official suggested potential for currency agreement in exchange for delay tariff increases

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Reports are the Chinese delegation is leaving early, but with continued Chinese ag purchases?

 

Financial Times- China offering to increase U.S. Ag purchases, soybean purchases up to 30 MMT from current 20 MMT,....

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

.... to ensure an interim trade agreement. Short-term bullish soybeans. "The extra purchases would be equivalent to about $3.25bn of orders at current rates."

https://www.ft.com/content/a24f6948-ea77-11e9-85f4-d00e5018f061

 

U.S. 'giant' biofuel package- EPA to reallocate small-refiner-exempted (SRE) gallons & get corn ethanol mandates back to min. 15 bil gallons;.........

Monday, October 7, 2019

..... gov't to fund infrastructure & streamline policy for existing pumps to better-support E-15. Original RFS back on track?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biofuels/trump-administration-promises-biofuel-boost-to-hard-hit-farmers-idUSKBN1WJ19P

 

Reuters- Sources suggest the White House is nearing a finalized biofuel agreement, hoping to get it signed by the end of this week and ......

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

2019 USDA September Stocks and Small Grains reports a bullish surprise for corn, soys but neutral wheat.

Monday, September 30, 2019

Both corn and soy stocks came in below the lowest trade estimates. USDA reduced the 2018 soybean harvest by 116 million bushels and yield came down by 1 bpa. Final U.S. wheat production comes in just short of the guess at 1.962 billion bushels but NASS will resurvey several states in the coming weeks as a significant portion of the spring grain harvest was incomplete. Those results will be shown in the Nov. 8 crop production report.  This provides great momentum trend change higher as we head into the 2019 USDA October crop report on Oct. 10, 2019.  

Corn up 10, soys up 18, Canola up 6, Chicago wheat up 3, KC up 5, MN up 3, cotton -.09

 

In a gesture of goodwill ahead of trade talks in October, China will lift punitive tariffs on US soybean and US pork....

Friday, September 13, 2019

USDA reported private sale of 204,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2019/2020 marketing year out of a possible 600,000 mt rumored. Look for more announcements on Monday. 

After gapping higher $3.00/cwt limit yesterday on hog futures 2019 December futures is limit up $4.50 and is offered synthetically at $70.70, $2.00 over expanded limits!

 

USDA Sept 2019 WASDE, 19/20 U.S. corn (168.2 bpa) & soybean (47.9) yields lower than Aug, but above trade guess. Report was market-friendly.....

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Corn yield came in at 168.2 bpa vs. 169.5 in Aug & 167.2 expected. soybean yield came in at 47.9 bpa vs. 48.5 Aug. & 47.2 expected. Acreages were unchanged. 

19/20 U.S. ending stocks for soybeans come in below trade guesses on increased old-crop exports and a smaller harvest. Corn came in a little higher, as old-crop exports were reduced. New-crop corn and bean exports unchanged. Wheat came in as expected, exports unchanged. 
19/20 U.S. ending stocks for soybeans come in below trade guesses on increased old-crop exports and a smaller harvest. Corn came in a little higher, as old-crop exports were reduced. New-crop corn and bean exports unchanged. Wheat came in as expected, exports unchanged. 

U.S. corn ear populations are the lowest since at least 2012. Implied ear weight is lowest since 2015, well above 2013, and looks like just above 2014. Below the past three years, though. 

USDA NASS objective yield survey for U.S. soybeans found the fewest pods since at least 2012, but massively large implied pod weights.

18/19 old-crop world ending stocks for corn and wheat increased from August while soybeans decreased. Corn and beans down from Aug in 19/20 but wheat up.

 

USDA reported as of Sept 4 2019 US corn prevent plant acres at 11.414 (prev 11.211); US soybean prevent plant acres at 4.460 (prev 4.351);......

Thursday, September 12, 2019

 and US wheat prevent plant acres at 2.215 (prev 2.209).

 

2019 4th Annual Great ON Yield Tour Final yield results - Corn is 173.2 bpa & soybeans at 43.6 bpa!

Thursday, August 29, 2019

2019 4th Annual Great ON Yield Tour Final yield results were released at Western Final Wrap Up Event, COFS, Woodstock, Canada, on August 29th, 2019. Corn 173.2 bpa & soybeans at 43.6 bpa! Both down from last year's record highs. Corn still above OMAFRA (Stats Canada) 5-year high at 164.6 & soybeans below 5-year avg 46.8.

 

2019 Pro Farmer tour, avg 2019 U.S. Corn yield at 163.3 bpa vs. USDA at 169.5 bpa; Soybeans avg U.S. yield at 46.1 bpa vs. USDA at 48.5 bpa...

Friday, August 23, 2019

2019 Pro Farmer tour pegged average 2019 US Corn yields at 163.3 bpa, that compares to the USDA estimate at 169.5 bpa; 2019 Production is forecast by the tour at 13.358 billion bushels that compares to the USDA forecast at 13.901 bln bu. Soybeans 3.497 billion bu vs. USDA at 3.68 bil bu, yield 46.1 bpa vs. USDA at 48.5 bpa.

Minnesota Corn yield at 170.3 bpa. vs. 178.6 last year and compares to the August USDA estimate of 173.0 bpa. Minnesota Soybean pod count came in at 965.3 vs. 1,090.4 last year and compares to the three year avg. of 1,072.6. Iowa Corn yield was estimated at 182.8 bpa. vs. 188.2 last year and compares to the August USDA estimate of 191.0 bpa.  Iowa Soybean count 1,106.9 vs. 1,208.9 last year and the three year average of 1,175.4.   

 

2019 ProFarmer Midwest Crop Tour, Day 3, IL & west IA, highlight a down year with lots of immature crop that is racing the clock to make it home...

Thursday, August 22, 2019

The 2019 Pro Farmer crop tour yield reports haven’t uncovered any disasters yet but highlight a down year with lots of immature crop that is racing the clock to make it home.  Soybean pod counts were down from year ago levels and the 3 year average but those counts have the potential still to increase with favorable weather before waning daylight hours shut development down.

 

2019 ProFarmer Midwest Crop Tour, Day 2, IN & NE, there are issues & yields are lower than USDA's, but no disaster yet....

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

2019 ProFarmer Midwest Crop Tour has first-hand reports of variability, prevent plant and immaturity. State-by-state yield projections from the tour continue to suggest issues but no disaster yet. Scouts were in the key "I" states today

 

2019 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour, Day 1 results, OH & SD corn yield lower vs. '18 tour & '19 USDA Aug WASDE....

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Soybean pod counts too, after day 1, were lower Y/Y & vs. 3 Yr. Avg. Because of the specific routes taken by the Pro Farmer crop scouts and their methodology their numbers are best analyzed relative to past crop tour averages rather than compared directly to the USDA estimates. 

 

DTN Digital Crop Tour forecast corn yield at 163.2 bpa vs. USDA at 169.4 & soys at 44.2 4.3 lower than the USDA

Sunday, August 18, 2019

DTN Digital Crop Tour in IL, IN & OH is forecasting lower corn and soybean yields that are 8 -16% lower than the USDA August crop report. 

Gro’s models for corn show a statewide average of 182 bushels per acre in Nebraska and 149 bpa in South Dakota. USDA pegged those states at 186 bpa and 157 bpa, respectively.

Gro forecasts Nebraska soybean growers will harvest 56 bpa compared to USDA’s 58 bpa estimate, while South Dakota farmers will harvest 37 bpa compared to USDA’s 45 bpa estimate.

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2019/08/16/day-4-national-average-corn-yield-2
Gro forecasts Nebraska soybean growers will harvest 56 bpa compared to USDA’s 58 bpa estimate, while South Dakota farmers will harvest 37 bpa compared to USDA’s 45 bpa estimate.

 

A large fire at Tyson beef packing plant Garden City, KS processed 6,000 head/day will be shut down. Cattle weights up, cash lower, futures limit down

Monday, August 12, 2019

USDA August Crop Report bearish corn, bullish soybeans neutral wheat

Monday, August 12, 2019

USDA reported more than expected 2019 corn planted, harvested, yields and ending stocks but lower than expected planted, harvested and ending stocks in soybeans. This was a corn report. 2019/20 corn ending stocks up 171 million bushels vs. last month to 2,181 billion bushels. Corn limit down 25, soybeans down 13 and wheat down 25.

U.S. farmers reported record numbers of prevented acres for corn (at 11.21 mil acres) and soybeans (4.35 mil acres), but it was well off record for wheat (at 2.21 mil acres). Total prevent acres over all the crops total 19.3 million.

 

USDA’s June hogs & pigs report the U.S. hog inventory expanding a bit more than trade expected and neutral to bearish, but futures priced it in?

Thursday, June 27, 2019

futures might have it all priced in after the plunge in the past month! The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report posted an increase of 4% in all inventory on June 1. Overall inventory levels increased 1% from March 1, as year-to-year growth in the hog herd continues to be consistent with previous plans. The 69.1 million head of market hog inventory is the largest June 1 total since estimates began in 1964, leaving concern that additional growth will continue over the near future. Even though farrowing intentions are down slightly from a year ago, numbers are 3% above 2017 levels, creating expectations of continued large supplies through the near future.

 

Stats Canada acreage June 2019 report showed Canola acres at 20.952 vs. 20.7 expected. Wheat acreage lower than expected, spring wheat 18.772 mil ....

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Stats Can acreage June 2019 report showed Canola acres at 20.952 vs. 20.7 expected and 22.7 last year. Wheat acreage estimates were lower than expectations. Spring wheat acreage was pegged at 18.772 mil acres. Durum wheat acreage was expected to be a little larger than the Spring's intention number of 5.02 mil, but it actually came in a bit lower at 4.894 mil. All wheat acres for 2019 was expected to come in higher than the Spring intentions number of 24.8 mil. Average guess was around 25.7 mil (around 1 mil higher than last year's 24.7345 mil). Not only did it come in lower than expectations, it came in below last year as Stats Can pegged All wheat acres for 2019 at 24.595 mil.

 

China will block all meat products shipped from Canada & is the 3rd largest market for Canadian pork. China said........

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

 ....... investigation surrounding feed additive ractopamine in Canadian meat shipments turned up 188 inauthentic veterinary health certificates.

https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/agriculture/update-1-china-to-stop-all-imports-of-meat-products-from-canada-on-wednesday-media-report

 

U.S. Crop Conditions, as of 23rd June, 2019, Fall due to Wet Conditions, 12.7 Million U.S. Soybean Acres Left to Plant!

Monday, June 24, 2019


 

Trump has directed members of his cabinet to review the administrations expanded use of waivers exempting small refiners from the nations biofuel.....

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Bullish 2019 June USDA WASDE: 19/20 US Corn yield down -10 bpa vs. last month to 166 bpa; corn acreage off -3 mil acres to 89.8 mil acres, ...........

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

19/20 US corn ending stocks off 0.81 bil bu vs. May to 1.675 bil bu. 

18/19 & 19/20 US soybean crops see ending stocks breaking above 1 bil bu, but many doubt those figures as USDA is yet to bake in the current US cropping struggles in the US soybeans balance-sheet. 

 

According to NASA the U.S. has had the wettest 12 months in 124 years of modern record-keeping

Thursday, May 30, 2019

 

According to StatsCan, poor soil moisture & forecasted dryness in 2019 Canadian wheat production by 1% to 33.7 MMT

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Soil moisture in Saskatchewan and Manitoba is currently at a 5-year low. 

 

USDA crop progress report as of 05-28-2019 projects U.S. corn planting at 58% vs. expected at 60-65% & soys at 29% vs. expected at 31%!

Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Look for the rally in grain futures to continue this week. SRW conditions good to excellent fall 5% to 61%.

 

Old crop 2019 July Corn Futures today broke above $4/bu- first break above $4 on the continuous nearby corn futures chart since last May!

Friday, May 24, 2019

This was a key resistance level for old crop corn futures, & this breach above is a bullish signal. Happy Friday!

 

Multiple news sources- US has agreed to remove aluminum & steel tariffs from Canadian & Mexican metal imports, likely within the next 48 hours....

Friday, May 17, 2019

Today, multiple news sources reported that the US has agreed to remove aluminum and steel tariffs from Canadian and Mexican metal imports, likely within the next 48 hours.

 

IEG Vantage (Informa) expects 2019 U.S. Corn acreage to fall to 90.7 mil acres vs USDA @ 92.792, Soybeans up to 86.4 mil vs USDA @ 84.617 mil.......

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

..... & spring Wheat to fall to 12.4 mil acres vs. USDA at 12.83 mil

 

2019 May USDA WASDE- not friendly, but futures more keen on trade deal news.19/20 U.S. corn carryout at a big 2.485 bil bu, soybeans close to 1 bil bu

Friday, May 10, 2019

...U.S. 19/20 wheat carryout higher Y/Y. 2019 U.S. wheat output at 1.897 bil bu was below trade expectations. 18/19 Brazil corn output higher at 100 MMT (from 96), Argentina higher at 49 MMT (from 47). All contributing to bigger world grain stocks!

 

U.S. President Trump said trade deal with China is still possible. He said Chinese President Xi Jinping wrote him a beautiful letter, and ......

Thursday, May 9, 2019

.........he'll probably speak to him (Xi) by phone.

 

Will Trump's 25% tariff ploy this weekend finally halt Chinese stalling, or will trade talks collapse? China's Vice-Premier Liu will travel to DC.....

Tuesday, May 7, 2019

China's Vice-Premier Liu will travel to Washington DC for talks on Thursday & Friday, which is a positive sign of engagement. Stay tuned!

 

Trudeau government set to boost cash advances for farmers as canola crisis drags on.....

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

The Trudeau government is expanding a federal loan guarantee program for farmers in response to Western Canada's canola crisis — more than doubling the maximum amount of money available to individual producers from $400,000 to 1 million. 

https://apple.news/A_eslaUj3TqiUkdb8A2hTgQ

 

Munchin trade rep. for Trump administration says that agreement with China could be signed in weeks....

Monday, April 29, 2019

With 95% complete can they close the deal? China wants a deal, Trump a win! 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/28/us/politics/mnuchin-china-us-trade-negotiations.html


 

Canada's Prime Minister Trudeau said the government will definitely take more action in coming days in dispute with China and Canola

Monday, April 29, 2019

With funds record short 52,000 plus contracts some good news would be welcome. 

 

Reuters reports that President Trump, potentially setting the stage for trade deal, said he hopes to soon host China's leader at the White House

Friday, April 26, 2019

Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged for the 4th consecutive meeting & drops any reference to future increases..........

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Expects GDP growth at +1.2% in 19 & +2.0% in 2020 & 21. Canadian $ breaking down testing support at $0.74. Will there be new lows in the cards for the loonie?


 

Stats Canada 19 Planting Report surprises with much higher than expected all wheat acres 25.674 above the high end of the range vs. 24.80

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Spring wheat also much higher 19.387 vs. expected 17.311 and durum acres pegged at 5.021 vs. expected at 5.2 and 2018 at 6.18. 2019 canola acres came in lower than expectations at 21,214 but not as low as some thought as the tensions with China continue vs. expected at 21.8 and last year at 22.81 million acres. Soybean acres were lower at 5.646 vs. expected at 6.4 and last year at 6.32. Corn acres above at 3.795 vs. expected at 3.7 and last year 3.63.

 

China continues to buy U.S. pork despite a 62% tariff for 2nd consecutive week & 3 out of last 5 weeks totaling 124,300 tonnes...........

Thursday, April 18, 2019

........ bought from state owned entity to rebuild stock reserves. For the week ending Apr. 11 - 23.5 k is the 5th largest, last weeks 77 K was the largest ever

 

Wallstreet Journal reporting that China-US have agreed to set tentative timeline for next round of discussions, seek a deal by end of May

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

U.S. Trade Rep Lighthizer will travel to Beijing in week of April 29th,  while the Chinese envoy will travel to Washington in week of May 5th. Rumors abound that the Ag portion is complete & its $50 billion per year or $300 billion over 6 years double from 17!

 

Weekly USDA corn & soybean export sales (as of April 4th, '19) were uninspiring, but weekly U.S. pork sales spiked with China buying a big 77,700 tons

Thursday, April 11, 2019

..... (finally, after a couple of quiet weeks)!

 

USDA's changes to May '19 WASDE: The international tables for Crops to include “World less China". & .............

Tuesday, April 9, 2019

.......Price range forecasts will be eliminated in favor of single price points. The ordering of countries will be updated to eliminate outdated aggregations (such as “Former Soviet Union"),....

 

USDA April WASDE '19- no major surprises and only confirmed what trade already knew- US & global 18/19 grain ending stocks are “heavy”................

Tuesday, April 9, 2019

Grain prices had baked this in? Note- US 18/19 soybean ending stocks LOWERED by -5 mil bu to 895 mil bu!

 

2019 5th Annual Farms.com Risk Management Ontario Planting Intentions Report final results corn acres record high up +5.78% at 2.279,514 million!

Monday, April 8, 2019

The largest increases are from Western, Central and Southern Ontario. 2019 soybean acres will remain above 3 million acres, up +0.10% Y/Y or up +3,222 acres, with a decline in Western Ontario offset by an increase in Southern Ontario. IP soybean acres will be up 13.21%. Total all wheat acres will be down 8.56% to 918,724 acres and below the 5-year average. The largest drop in wheat acreage is from Southern Ontario. Total SRW wheat acres come in at 681,000 acres.

Moe Agostino, Chief Commodity Strategist with Farms.com Risk Management, says “record 2018 yields are outweighing any disease issues with VOM (DON) from 2018.” Steve Denys, Director of Business Management for Maizex Seeds, says “he is not surprised by the results as heavy clay areas like Essex and Lambton would switch to soybean acres, but everyone else would plant more corn acres.” He went on to say that, “Ontario farmers are making seed variety decisions in 2019, adjusting planting dates, population sizes and when to fungicide to minimize the impact of DON in their corn fields in 2019.”

 

Damage estimates continue to climb as Accuweather is forecasting property crop losses at $12.5 billion on par with hurricane Matthew & Irene

Monday, April 8, 2019

Report also highlights long-term health risks related to standing water and contaminated drinking water wells.

NOAA warns flood risk near U.S. Midwest rivers remains high given saturated soils and forecasting above average rainfall near-tern but does not expect long-term widespread flooding but moderate flooding is expected across MO, Southern Iowa and Eastern Kansas.

 

Weather forecasters forecasting round 2 of the “bomb cyclone” later this week, one of the strongest low-pressure systems of all time for U.S. Midwest

Monday, April 8, 2019

The hardest hit will be Northern Nebraska, Southern South Dakota and Southern half of Minnesota. 1-2 feet of snow expected with local levels at 30 inches and wind gusts as high as 50-60 mph and life threatening.

 

Grain markets weaker as a concrete timeline to end the trade war was not announced on Thursday. The market continues to await resolution

Friday, April 5, 2019

The lengthy review and approval of biotech crops is reportedly still a sticking point to end the trade conflict. 

 

According to Wallstreet Journal, Trump later today expected to announce upcoming date for summit with China's leader Xi

Thursday, April 4, 2019

It most likely will be for the end of April? Its the shot in the arm and boost that the ag markets need. 

 

Bloomberg report that there was a final push being made to reach a trade deal and that a Trump-Xi meeting could be announced as early as Thursday

Wednesday, April 3, 2019

The deal reportedly would give Beijing until 2025 to meet commitments on commodity purchases and allow US companies to wholly own enterprises in China as a binding pledge that can trigger retaliation from the US if left unfulfilled.  Other non-binding but not specifically mentioned promises China offered to implement by 2029 wouldn't be tied to US retaliation. The US is pushing for China to front-load a big chunk of the commodity purchases in the first two years of the agreement. 

Enforcement of the agreement is still being negotiated where the US wants the right to take unilateral, 'proportional' action against China if it fails to abide by the rules, China so far agreed only to contemplate not to retaliate if the US took action but stopped short of a formal pledge to refrain from countering.  Another remaining issue is the tariff

removal where 90- and 180-day benchmarks after signing could be used as benchmarks for Chinese compliance.  Last but not least, the location of a Trump-Xi signing ceremony where China would prefer a neutral third country. 

 

The World Trade Organization lowered their 2019 global trade growth forecast to 2.6% from the previous 3.7% expected growth

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

They noted 2018 growth in trade was 3% down from 4.6% in the prior year. We need a U.S./China trade deal soon and the goal reportedly is now to wrap up negotiations by the end of April.  The markets are tired of repeated deadlines that continually are moved back.

 

Gro Intelligence estimates that more that 1 million U.S. acres of farm ground over 9 states have been ravaged by flood in March

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Farms from the Dakotas to Missouri have been under water for a week or more, possibly impeding planting and damaging soil. The floods, which came just weeks before planting season starts in the Midwest, will likely reduce corn, wheat and soy production this year.

Nearly 1.1 million acres of cropland and more than 84,000 acres of pastureland in the U.S. Midwest had flood water on it for at least seven days between March 8 and March 21, according to a preliminary analysis of government and satellite data by New-York based Gro Intelligence at the request of Reuters. The flooded acreage represents less than 1% of U.S. land used to grow corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, cotton, sorghum and barley. Iowa, the top U.S. corn and No. 2 soy producing state, had the most water, covering 474,271 acres, followed by Missouri with 203,188 acres, according to Gro Intelligence. The satellite imaginary did not show the full extent of the flooding in Nebraska nor North Dakota, but we estimate a further 2- 3 million acres were damaged and perhaps lost.

 

 

2019 USDA March Planting & Grain Stocks Report bearish corn 92.72 million acres above expectations but bullish soybeans at 84.617 below

Friday, March 29, 2019

All US wheat acres down 2 mln acres from last year. Spring and durum came in well below expectations, wheat stocks above. U.S. planted acres. All wheat acres at low end of the range at 45.9 million and below expectations. U.S. March 1 stocks: corn above expectations and soybeans above expectations (record large).

 

The U.S. & China said they made progress in trade talks that concluded on Friday in Beijing that Washington called "candid and constructive"

Friday, March 29, 2019

The world's 2 largest economies try to resolve a nearly 9-month trade war.

 

USDA Mar. 1 hogs & pigs in line with expectations. Hogs & Pigs total inventory continues to grow, 2.1% higher Y/Y;.....

Thursday, March 28, 2019

.........pigs saved per litter a record high 10.7 for Dec.-Feb. period. A lack of Chinese buying, due to ASF, is weighing!

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/hgpg0319.pdf

 

USDA farm Service agency has announced temporarily to allow grazing on CRP acres.

Wednesday, March 27, 2019

The Emergency grazing allowance is for all Nebraska counties until April 30th, 2019.

 

Bloomberg reports China may buy as much as 300,000 mt of US pork in '19, a record amount if realized.....

Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Some say China will need 2 MMT from the world. Trump is asking negotiators to ask for more than $1.2 trillion over 6 years that China offered to purchase in US goods!

 

Canada's Canola Council says members are reporting that Chinese importers are refusing to purchase canola seed at this time..........

Friday, March 22, 2019

China is not buying from any company now and its affecting all new sales. Futures are down 1.7% after bouncing from the lows 2 weeks ago. According to AAFC, 2019 care are now expected to fall to 9.0 million hectares because of an global oversupply and uncertainty over Chinese buying. 2019 production is forecast to fall to 19.8 Mt versus 20.3 Mt in 2018-19 and 21.3 Mt in 2017-18. 

 

USDA reported private sale of 300,000 metric tons of US corn for delivery to China during the 2018/2019 marketing year..........

Friday, March 22, 2019

The last time China bought more than 100,000 tonnes of U.S. corn in one week was in August of 2017

 

In a Fox Business interview President Trump said US-China trade deal continues to move forward and says it will probably happen.......

Friday, March 22, 2019

President Trump also said the U.S. will be able to keep 25% tariffs on automobiles ongoing adding that if foreign automakers want to avoid the tariffs they can build plants in the U.S.

 

Trump is asking his negotiators to ask China for “double or triple” its offer to buy U.S. goods........

Thursday, March 21, 2019

The last offer from China was $1.2 trillion over 6 years.  China's Commerce Ministry said US trade delegation will travel for talks in Beijing March 28-29th  for the 8th official face to face meeting, then Vice Premier Li will travel to Washington DC in early April for additional talks for the 9th official face to face meeting.

 

NOAA weather bureau forecasting that extensive flooding seen in the U.S. Midwest will continue through May & worsen water flows downstream........

Thursday, March 21, 2019

The head of the agency today said the situation has the potential to become an unprecedented flood season for 2019. CPC's new forecast for April 2019 shows a cool/wet bias in the western U.S. Corn Belt, a wet bias in the southeast, and a warm bias in the eastern 1/3 of the U.S.

 

U.S./China trade deal has now been pushed back to June as enforcement has become a sticking point

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Whats the point of signing a trade deal if the paper is not worth what has been agreed to? Reports from financial media say US Treas Sec Mnuchin and US Trade Rep Lighthizer will travel week of March 25th to China, followed by China's Vice Premier visiting Washington DC the following week. 

 

Roughly 1 million pounds of pork from China seized by US Customs agents at the port of Newark,.......

Monday, March 18, 2019

....... thwarting an attempt to smuggle the products into the US in more than 50 shipping containers; seizure comes amid stepped upASF precautions.

 

Chinese Ag ministry data released today shows the country's pig crop in February was off -16.6% from Feb 2018, the sow herd shrank by -19.1% during...

Friday, March 15, 2019

......Feb 2019 versus the year ago month as African swine fever sharply impacted farmers there.

 

Markets frustrated with slow pace of trade negotiations as headlines from Bloomberg report summit to sign trade deal pushed out to the end of April

Thursday, March 14, 2019

This is not a big surprise, nor does it mean that a deal with China cannot be reached, but it does give us another turn on the psychological trade war cycle where optimism for a deal is being let out of the balloon one more time.  

 

According to the country's meteorology bureau, Australia's heat wave will linger for the next 3 months with above average temps April 1 & June 30

Thursday, March 14, 2019

Farmers will start to plant wheat on April 1, this after last years drought that sent wheat production to an 11 year low.

 

2019 March USDA WASDE crop report bearish corn and wheat, neutral/supportive soybeans but March 27/28 trade deal pushed back

Friday, March 8, 2019

For soybeans, higher crush, exports unch. smaller crop and exports in Brazil, higher use in Argentina but harvest unch. China imports unch (and domestic crush was lowered 1 mmt to 88 mmt), 18/19 soybean ending stocks down to 900 million, 18/19 corn ending stocks up 100 million to 1.835 billion, exports down 75 million, ethanol down 25 million. 18/19 wheat ending stocks up 45 million exports down 35 million

 

China blocks Canadian #canola shipments from Richardson Inter'l as of Mar. 1, sends futures plunging after.......

Tuesday, March 5, 2019

..... dropping more than 10% in Feb. CDN canola exports down 51.9% in 18 vs. 17. Another CDN Canadian co. could assume export volume or help U.S. soy export program

 

According to Wall Street Journal, China is offering to lower tariffs on U.S. farm, chemical, auto & other products

Sunday, March 3, 2019

U.S. is also thinking of eliminating most if not all tariffs on Chinese products as part of a trade deal that could be signed by March 27, 19.

 

USDA January 1, 2019, Cattle Inventory Report: 5th year of expansion for U.S. cattle; largest U.S. herd in 11 years!

Thursday, February 28, 2019

USDA January 1, 2019, Cattle Inventory Report: 5th year of expansion for U.S. cattle; largest U.S. herd in 11 years!

 

Come check out #ONyield19 trade booth at the #LdnFarmShow from March 6 - 8, 19 booth number 1824 at the BMO Centre,....

Monday, February 25, 2019

......Come learn how to win great prizes by joining 2-week crop tour or attending final wrap up events. Thank You , ,

 

Soybeans higher as Trump delays March 1 hike on tariffs thanks to productive talks with China...........

Monday, February 25, 2019

China on Friday committed to buying an additional 10 mmt of soybeans. Only 7.4 mmt of soybeans have been sold to China in 18/19 off from 26 mmt the prior year.

 

Trump to extend trade deal talks with China by 2 days beyond March 1 suggesting a greater chance of deal being done.......

Friday, February 22, 2019

progress has been made on technology transfer issues & with currency manipulation. US Commerce Sec Ross said ts too early for Champagne!

 

China & US and near a breakthrough in trade deal? Negotiators are said to be drawing up 6 MoUs on structural issues-............

Thursday, February 21, 2019

- forced technology transfer & cyber theft, intellectual property rights, services, currency, agriculture a& non-tariff barriers to trade...

 

Bloomberg is reporting that China is proposing $30 billion additional US agriculture imports that would include.......

Thursday, February 21, 2019

..... more corn, soybeans and wheat as part of the deal to help reduce the balance of trade

 

2018 Dec Stats Canada Stocks Report bearish canola pegged at record high, wheat was lower than expected and .............

Tuesday, February 5, 2019

barley supplies shrink.

 

USDA Winter Wheat Seeding report 2019 could surprise with lower than expected all wheat acres. Informa at..........

Tuesday, February 5, 2019

........ 31.5 million acres vs. Farm Futures at 31.5 could be the surprise the wheat markets needs that no one is talking about!

 

2018 final U.S. production numbers this Friday could be a game changer if yields and harvested acres come in much lower than expected?............

Tuesday, February 5, 2019

Trade looking for USDA to finally report 2018 final U.S. production numbers this Friday after being absent for more than one month- Game-changer?

 

INTL FC Stone has lowered there 18/19 Brazilian soybean production down to 112.2 mmt from last year at 120.30 and............

Friday, February 1, 2019

 USDA at 120.50 in Dec. WASDE down 8.1 mmt or 297 million bushels

 

US Final 2018 Crop Production, Quarterly Grain Stocks data to be released on Feb 8th, along with the Feb 2019 WASDE crop report!

Monday, January 28, 2019

USDA: US Final 2018 Crop Production, Quarterly Grain Stocks data and Winter Wheat Seeding reports will be released on February 8th, along with the February 2019 WASDE crop report

 

Friday, January 25, 2019- Trump and congress on day 35 have reached a deal to fund gov't for 3-weeks

Friday, January 25, 2019

As they work towards an immigration deal and to fund a border wall. 

 

China has offered a 6-year boost in imports of U.S. goods with a combined value of $1 trillion & reduce U.S. deficit to 0 by 2024 (Bloomberg)

Friday, January 18, 2019

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/china-to-offer-path-to-eliminate-trade-imbalance-with-us-report.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

 

Reuters according to grain trade sources reports that 500,000 MT of U.S. soys were bought by Chinese

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Worth 180 million in a classic case of "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario as soybean traders maybe disappointed with the size of the purchase but there could be more orders to come.

 

OPEC agrees to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day, WTI crude oil up $2.35 at $53.85..

Friday, December 7, 2018

Supportive for crude oil prices

 

18 USDA Nov. Crop Report a SURPRISE corn yield 178.9, soy 52, 18/19 corn ending stocks 1.736........

Thursday, November 8, 2018

18 USDA Nov. Crop Report a SURPRISE corn yield 178.9, soy 52, 18/19 corn ending stocks 1.736  bullish vs. expected, soys  955 bearish & wheat 949 neutral

 

Informa lowered '18 US corn yield to 179.7 bpa from 182.1, soy to 52.6 from 53..........

Friday, November 2, 2018

Informa Economics lowered their 2018 U.S. corn yield estimate to 179.7 bpa from 182.1 bpa. They also lowered their 2018 U.S. soybean yield estimate to 52.6 bpa from the previous outlook at 53.0 bpa

 

USDA Long Term forecasts 19/20: US Corn acres 92 mil, soy 82.5 mil! Its their initial projections...

Friday, November 2, 2018

USDA Long Term forecasts 19/20: US Corn acres 92 mil, soy 82.5 mil! Its the USDA's initial projections but not usually market moving

 

Bolsonaro-led Brazil set for crude oil windfall, with output & exports poised to soar............

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Bolsonaro-led Brazilian government set for crude oil windfall, with output & exports poised to soar

 

USDA Crop Progress (Oct 28) again showed higher than expected soybean harvest but lower corn harvest

Monday, October 29, 2018

USDA weekly Crop Progress report (Oct. 28) again showed higher (72%) than expected (70%) soybean harvest  & lower (63%) than expected (64%) corn harvest. Winter wheat planted (78%) lower than expected (82%) & crop conditions (53%) were also lower than expected (58%)

 

Real at 6 month high- Brazil's president Bolsonaro pledged to reform government finances by.........

Monday, October 29, 2018

Brazilian Real up to a 6 month high as Brazil's far-right president-elect Bolsonaro pledged to reform government finances by lowering deficits, shrinking public debts and lowering interest rates

 

In the latest Better Farming, Moe and Abhinesh assess Canada’s 2018 projected crop yields

Monday, October 29, 2018

In the latest Better Farming, Moe and Abhinesh assess Canada’s 2018 projected crop yields

 

IGC- 2018 world corn o/p unch at 1.074 bil tons; Soy lower by 1 MMT to 370 MMT;Wheat up to 728.8 MMT

Friday, October 26, 2018

International Grains Council (IGC)- 2018 world corn output unch vs. last month 1.074 bil tons (1.048 in 2017). Soybean lower by 1 MMT to 370 MMT (340 in 2017). Wheat up over 12 MMT to 728.8 MMT. Also forecasting expansion in world wheat area in 19/20 harvest- 1st gain in 4 years

 

Latest Better Pork, Moe & Abhinesh analyze recent trade negotiations & ASF disease outbreaks........

Friday, October 26, 2018

In the latest Better Pork, Moe and Abhinesh of analyze how recent trade negotiations and disease outbreaks have caused notable shifts in the hog market.

 

USDA 2018 Oct. Cold Storage supportive- U.S. beef & pork stocks lower than trade expectations.......

Monday, October 22, 2018

USDA October Cold Storage report supportive with U.S. beef & pork stocks coming in lower than trade expectations

 

Ag Canada Oct. update- 18/19 Stats Can model-based yield higher than their prior survey-based ones..

Monday, October 22, 2018

Ag Canada’s Oct. update (18/19 Stats Canada model-based yield higher than their prior survey-based ones): 18/19 canola ending stocks 2.5 MMT, double that of Sept. All wheat stocks +0.6 MMT vs. Sept. to 5.6 MMT. 18/19 total pulses stocks at 1.76 MMT, higher than Sept. 1.54 MMT

 

USDA October 2018 Cattle on Feed price-supportive!.........

Monday, October 22, 2018

USDA October 2018 Cattle on Feed price-supportive! Cattle On Feed October 1: 105%; estimate 106%; prior month 106%. Placements during Sep: 95%; estimate 100%; prior month 107%. Marketings during Sept: 96%; estimate 97%; prior month 100%

 

2018 Oct. WASDE Bullish vs. expectations corn yield 180.7, soy yield 53.1 bpa, corn & soy futures up

Thursday, October 11, 2018

2018 USDA Oct. Crop Report Bullish vs. expectations corn yield 180.7, soy yield 53.1 bpa, corn futures up +$0.07, soys up $0.05

 

Breaking News #ONyield18 final corn & soybean yields record high at 179.5 & 50.2 bpa!

Thursday, August 30, 2018

Breaking News - #ONyield18 Just released final 2018 ON corn & soybean yields record high at 179.5 & 50.2 bpa!

 

2018 August USDA WASDE Crop Report supportive wheat & corn, bearish soybeans

Friday, August 10, 2018

2018 August USDA WASDE Crop Report supportive wheat & corn, bearish soybeans 

 

2018 USDA July WASDE friendly corn, bearish wheat & soybeans but USDA underestimating demand........

Thursday, July 12, 2018

2018 USDA July WASDE crop report friendly corn, bearish wheat & soybeans but USDA underestimating demand because of trade

 

USDA June Acreage & Qtrly Grain Stocks slightly bearish corn & wheat, bullish soys - all priced in

Friday, June 29, 2018

USDA June Acreage & Quarterly Grain Stocks slightly bearish corn but priced in, bullish soys & bearish wheat but also priced in

 

2018 Stats Canada Acreage Report slightly bearish canola & wheat but priced in

Friday, June 29, 2018

2018 Stats Canada Acreage Report slightly bearish canola & wheat but priced in

 

2018 USDA June WASDE crop report friendly grains..........

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

2018 USDA June WASDE crop report friendly grains corn up +$0.10, soys up +$0.08 & wheat up +$0.15, a classic "sell the rumor, buy the news"

 

Weekly USDA grain exports (May 11-17): disappointing for soybeans but no surprises.............

Thursday, May 24, 2018

..........here as China has not been buying for the past 4 weeks, while corn & wheat sales were at the upper end of the range. Soy oil, meal & cotton all at the middle of the expected range

 

USDA May Cold Storage Report sees higher Y/Y meat stocks, but in with recent trend!

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Beef at the end of April was 434.8 mil  pounds, 4.6% higher than a year ago and 2.9% higher than the 5-year average. Pork stocks 641.407 mil pounds, which was +51.083 mil pounds (+8.65%) higher than the same time last year. Pork belly inventories were 64.6 million pounds, 92.5% higher than a year ago but just 2% higher than the 5 year average.

 

Weekly USDA Crop progress, as of 20th May, 2018, lose to trade expectations!

Monday, May 21, 2018

Weekly USDA Crop progress, as of 20th May 2018, found corn, soybeans and spring wheat planting and winter wheat conditions close to trade expectations. But, Northern States planting still lagging. Corn planting advanced from 62% to 81% right in line with the 81% avg. for this date. Soybean planting progress advance from 35% to 56% complete this week vs. 44% avg. for this date. Winter wheat conditions came in at 36% G&E and 35 P&VP vs last week when they were 36% G&E and 36% P&VP. Both HRW and SRW wheat classes saw a slight uptick in conditions. Spring wheat planting came in at 79% complete vs 58% last week and the long term avg of 80%. 

 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange report pegs the Argentina soybean crop at 36 MMT down 2 MMT vs..........

Friday, May 18, 2018

..........38 previous and down 21.8 MMT vs. last year at 57.8 with the crop 71% harvested vs. 67% last week as wet weather took its toll after the worst drought in 100 years!

 

NO DEAL ON NAFTA! Too many differences on labor, Ag, energy & intellectual property. Postponed .....

Friday, May 18, 2018

.........at least until end of 18, will weigh on CDN $

 

CHINA ends anti-dumping probe into U.S. sorghum imports, willing to buy $200 billon more U.S. ......

Friday, May 18, 2018

...............products a sign willing to work on U.S. ag trade!

 

Informa projecting 2018 U.S. soybean plantings at 89.4 million acres up +0.42 vs. USDA at 89.4 &....

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

......... U.S. corn acres at 89 up +0.97 vs. USDA at 88. 2018 U.S. spring wheat comes in at 12.4 up +0.2 (except durum) vs. USDA at 12.6 while, cotton at 14 up +0.5 vs. USDA at 13.5.

 

Post 2018 May USDA crop report - 18/19 global corn stocks to use ratio is the 3rd tightest since....

Monday, May 14, 2018

.......1974. 18/19 global corn stocks ex-china are just 100,000 MT!

 

2018 USDA May WASDE crop report neutral corn, neutral to bearish wheat & bullish soybeans vs. ......

Thursday, May 10, 2018

...........expectations but 18/19 new crop ending stocks all trending lower

 

Good news for corn bulls! According to Reuters, Pres. Trump backs year round sales of E15..........

Tuesday, May 8, 2018

......... blended fuels & also RINS for all exports & will not put a cap on all RIN credits, a "win-win" decision for all sides!

 

In USDA May WASDE crop report traders are estimating lower global & U.S. ending stocks vs. 17/18...

Monday, May 7, 2018

.... as theUS takes its first official look at new crop supply and demand balance sheet tables.

 

USDA weekly crop progress report (May 6th, 2018) U.S. planting progress came in better than expected

Monday, May 7, 2018

USDA weekly crop progress report (May 6th, 2018) U.S. planting progress came in better than expected with corn at 39% vs. expected at 37%, 17% last week but still behind the average at 50%, soybeans from 5 to 15% vs. expected at 14%,spring wheat planted from 10% to 30% in line with expectations. Winter wheat crop conditions at 34% good-excellent in line with expectations for 34% and up 1% vs. last week at 33%. U.S. planters should be running hard ahead of the next rains that move in from the West starting tomorrow. 6-10 & 8-14-day outlook maps continue to suggest a nice window mid-month for those who do not get corn planted early this week. 

 

Planting progress in today's USDA Crop Progress Report - U.S. corn 62% up +24% wk/wk;.............

Monday, May 7, 2018

......... soybeans 35% up +20%wk/wk; spring wheat 58% up +28% wk/wk. Winter Wheat G-E 36% up +2% wk/wk

 

Wheat Tour 2018 final Kansas HRW wheat yield at 37 bpa vs. last year's 48 bpa & below..........

Friday, May 4, 2018

......... 5-year avg; production 243.3 mil bu is down 27% Y/Y. Nebraska, Colorado, Oklahoma & Kansas total Y/Y production loss is 150.62 mil bu, & if no rain in next 2 weeks, it'll get worse!

 

Old saying- if corn planting goes past May 10th, 1 bpa/day is the yield loss. Now, it's May 20th!

Tuesday, May 1, 2018

Planting date accounts for less than 25% of the variability in corn yields.

 

USDA crop progress report (April 29th, 2018) came within pre-report estimates for 2018 corn,........

Monday, April 30, 2018

.........soybeans & spring wheat planting (but all were at the low end of the range) & winter wheat crop conditions.

 

Lower 2018 U.S. corn acres, combined with lower 18/19 global production & higher consumption,.......

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

.........leading to shrinking global ending stocks for 2nd year in a row - setting up for a bullish outlook for corn futures

 

USDA Crop progress, 22 April,2018- Corn planting 5%, last week 3%, last year 15%. 1st soybean ......

Monday, April 23, 2018

......... planting progress 2% complete, last year 5%. Winter Wheat 31% G-E, 32% fair & 37% P-VP, unchanged from last week

 

U.S. Corn Exports (19 April, 2018) on Track to Exceed USDA projections, while Wheat at .............

Thursday, April 19, 2018

......... a marketing year low & worst in 3 years!

 

USDA reports record Mar. 18 soy crush 171.858 mill. bu! Capacity could be as high as .............

Thursday, April 19, 2018

..............2,050 bill. bu vs. current USDA estimates 1,970. USDA could up 17/18 crush usage to 2,000 & 18/19 - 2,100 - 2,200 on 2 new plants, ending stocks to drop 17/18 520 down 30 & 18/19 down 170 to 350

 

'18 Farms.com Risk Management ON Planting Intentions Survey & Results from Feb 4 - Mar 25 are out...

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

..........with corn acres up +6.4% to 2.25 million acres above 5-year average, soys down -7.45% to 2.84 & all wheat up +4.2% to 1.05 million

 

USDA Weekly Crop Progress (Apr 16)– Corn planted 3%, up from last week’s 2%, behind............

Monday, April 16, 2018

........... avg 5%. Winter Wheat G-E 31%, unchg from last week, vs. 54% last year; P-VP 37%, up from last week’s 35% & last years 13%!

 

2018 USDA April WASDE crop report neutral corn, slightly bullish soybeans and............

Thursday, April 12, 2018

2018 USDA April WASDE crop report neutral corn, slightly bullish soybeans and slightly bearish wheat vs. expectations but no game changer

 

Could the 2018 Argentina corn crop go below 30 MMT? Latest estimates- 32 MMT corn & 38 MMT Soy......

Friday, April 6, 2018

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange Weekly Update estimates 17/18 corn crop at 32 MMT vs. 41 LY) with crop is 22% harvested.  Soybean crop 38 MMT vs. 39.5 previous (58 MMT LY) yields are off 25-58% and crop is 15% harvested. 


 

2018 USDA March Bullish acreage report overshadowed the bearish grain stocks report....

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Bullish acreage report overshadowed the bearish grain stocks report- 18/19 new crop ending stocks could shrink more for corn & soys, but beginning stocks (17/18 ending stocks in the April USDA WASDE report) should go up for both. Some offsetting demand adjustments possible....

 

Did you know that today is the 10th anniversary of $25 for Minneapolis Wheat Futures?

Friday, February 23, 2018

Did you know that today is the 10th anniversary of $25 for Minneapolis Wheat Futures?

 

Day 2 of 2018 USDA Ag Outlook Forum projecting 18/19 U.S. soybean exports will ...........

Friday, February 23, 2018

......rebound to a record high 2,300 up 200 million bushels (2,100 17/18), boosted by the setback to Argentina’s crop from drought

 

The U.S. drought seems to be travelling from the South and intensifying vs. from the North in 2012!

Friday, February 23, 2018

The U.S. drought seems to be travelling from the South and intensifying vs. from the North in 2012!

 

USDA 2018 Feb. WASDE: bullish corn, bearish soys & wheat. 17/18 Corn ending stocks ............

Thursday, February 8, 2018

....... 2.352 bil bu, down -125 mil bu from last month; Soys 530 bil bu, up +60 mil bu; & Wheat 1.009 bil bu, up +20 mil bu

 

In the monthly CONAB crop report 2017/18 soybean production is estimated up 1.15 MMT to ............

Thursday, February 8, 2018

........ 111.55 MMT. Total corn production down 4.3 MMT to 88 MMT more than expected, 1st season corn crop down 0.48 and 2nd season down 3.94 and wheat at 4.65 MMT vs. last year at 4.26 MMT.

 

Ahead of USDA Feb crop report analysts are estimating U.S. 17/18 corn ending stocks to be down......

Monday, February 5, 2018

.....10 million bushels, soybean ending stocks up 22 million bushels and all wheat ending stocks up 4 million. Global corn stocks are expected to be down 2.6 MMT, soybean unchanged and wheat down 0.2 MMT. USDA also expected to lower Argentina soybean production by 2.2 MMT to 52.8 vs. 56 last month, Brazil production to offset up 1.5 MMT and Argentina corn down 1.4 MMT to 40.5 vs. 42 last month and Brazil corn down 1.4 to 93.5 vs. last month at 95 MMT. 

 

In Stats Canada’s December 31st stocks report all grain estimates came in lower than expected with..

Monday, February 5, 2018

....the exception of peas slightly supportive wheat, oats and canola futures. Canola stocks the highest since 1980! 

 

USDA released its 2018 January Semi Annual Cattle Inventory report, which was mostly friendly.......

Wednesday, January 31, 2018

....... for prices and did not show higher than expected US cattle inventory expansion, except for dairy cattle. 

 

AgRural analysts pegged 17/18 Brazil soybean crop harvest at 3.8% complete, that compares to........

Monday, January 29, 2018

.......... the 4.3% pace in the year earlier week, but ahead of the long-term average pace at 2.9% complete. They estimate Mato Grosso soybean harvest at 13.5% complete up from the 12.4% pace in the year earlier week. 

 

AAFC: 18/19 Canadian grain & oilseed acreage to rise +3.8% Y/Y to 28.1 mil ha. Canola crop to ......

Friday, January 26, 2018

rise to record 21.7 MT vs. prev. 17/18 record 21.3 MT, exports to increase to record 12 MT. Wheat acreage to increase +4% Y/Y, -11% drop in W. wheat more than offset by +5% in S. wheat

 

Weather playing havoc with South American Crop. Private estimates for 2017/18 crop .................

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

..........factoring lower Y/Y total South American corn and soybeans production. Current projections see a drop of -10 MMT Y/Y for total South American production

 

Pres. Trump says terminating NAFTA would be the "best deal" to revamp 24-year old pact. Stay tuned..

Thursday, January 18, 2018

........ for potential shock at 23rd Jan, 6th round, talks in Montreal, and a wild ride for CDN$. BoC raised rates +0.25% y’day. Some think a U.S. NAFTA withdrawal could sink CDN$ 5-6 cents!

 

The Bank of Canada (BoC) today increased its target for the overnight rate up +0.25 to 1 .25% as....

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

............. recent data has been strong, inflation is close to target, and the economy is operating roughly at capacity despite the NAFTA uncertainty. 

 

Rare snow covers the Sahara Desert in Algeria – Second year in a row after 40 years of absence

Monday, January 15, 2018

Rare snow covers the Sahara Desert in Algeria – Second year in a row after 40 years of absence

 

18 USDA Jan. crop reports bearish wheat & corn vs. expected & slightly bullish soys from ........

Friday, January 12, 2018

...........unexpected cut in yield to 49.1 bpa despite being offset by lower exports. The drop in 18 winter wheat acres was 1% but less than the 4% drop expected. The perennial bull market in cotton also saw a setback as the USDA trimmed ending stocks and increased exports but not as much as was expected by the trade. 

 

Dec. 1 corn stocks a new record high! USDA Dec. 1 corn stocks were ABOVE trade expectations at......

Friday, January 12, 2018

.......... 12.516 bln bu, soybeans BELOW at 3.157 bln bu, and wheat ABOVE at 1.874 bln bu. 

 

U.S. farmers planted the 2nd lowest ever of 2018 winter wheat acres at 32.608 million including.....

Friday, January 12, 2018

........... a record 109 year low of HRW acres of 23.1 mln.

 

U.S. winter wheat, through the end of December, shows crop stress. But, this doesn't include .......

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

...... the recent cold spell!

In North Carolina, winter wheat conditions were rated 72% G&E compared to 86% previously and P&VP was 4% compared to 1% back in Nov. In Colorado, winter wheat conditions were rated 48% G&E compared to 66% previously and P&VP was 21% compared to 7% in Nov. In Oklahoma, winter wheat conditions were rated 15% G&E compared to 30% previously and P&VP was 42% compared to 10% in Nov. In Illinois, winter wheat conditions were rated 56% G&E compared to 62% previously and P&VP was 15% compared to 11% in Nov. In Kansas, winter wheat conditions were rated 37% G&E compared to 51% previously and P&VP was 22% compared to 14% back in Nov. North Dakota conditions were very comparable to last month. Winter wheat conditions were rated 27% G&E compared to 28% previously and P&VP was 38% compared to 34% back in Nov. Nebraska wheat conditions improved. Winter wheat conditions were rated 64% G&E compared to 59% previously and P&VP was 7% compared to 10% back in Nov. South Dakota conditions also improved. Winter wheat conditions were rated 20% G&E compared to 18% previously and P&VP was 36% compared to 38% back in Nov. Montana conditions also improved. Winter wheat conditions were rated 40% G&E compared to 33% previously and P&VP was 13% compared to 15% back in Nov. 

 

Join us at 11:45a.m. EDT or 10:45am CDT for live review '17 USDA Dec. WASDE. Details in email.

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Join us live 11:45 a.m. EDT or 10:45 am CDT for pre & post review 17 USDA Dec. crop report. Details in email

 

Market expectations for Dec. WASDE: reductions to the South American 17/18 crop..........

Thursday, December 7, 2017

........ Argentina Soybeans: 56.52 mmt vs 57.0 last month, Corn: 41.77 vs 42.0 last month. Brazil Soybeans: 108.2 mmt vs 108 last month, Corn: 93.26 vs 95 last month

 

Stats Canada 2017 Nov. Production report raised canola & wheat est. from trade expectations & ....

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

..... Stats Can Sept. est., but, corn est. was close to expected, & soy lower. Total wheat production declined 5.5% to 30.0 million tonnes in 2017 vs. last year, vs. expected 28 MMT. 21.3 million tonnes of canola in 2017, up 8.7% from 19.6 million tonnes in 2016. Corn at 14.1 (vs. 13.2 last year), 3.7 mmt for oats (vs. 3.2 last year), 7.9 mmt for barley vs. (8.8 last year). Soybean production was lower than expected at 7.72 MMT (but higher than last year’s 6.55 MMT). 

 

Informa lowered their Aussie and South American 17/18 Crop Estimates in December ....

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

17/18 Aussie wheat production at 20.3 mln mt off from the 21.6 mln mt previously. 

17/18 Brazil Soybean production at 110.0 mln mt off from the 111.00 mln mt prev., Brazil total Corn production at 89.0 mln mt off from the 92.0 mln mt prev. 

17/18 Argentina Wheat production at 18.0 mln mt up from the 17.7 mln mt prev., Soybean production at 54.5 mln mt down from the 55.0 mln mt prev., Corn production at 42.0 mln mt unchanged from the previous month

 

2018/19 U.S. grain beginning stocks are starting to snowball higher the past 5 years! The best .....

Thursday, November 16, 2017

 bull markets are led by demand & it will be the key to higher futures in 2018.

 

Informa now projecting 2018 corn acres to be up +0.96 million to 91.42,soybeans ...........

Thursday, November 16, 2017

down -0.72 million to 89.63 & all wheat down -0.25 to 45.63 & U.S. winter wheat at also down 0.25 to 31.92 million acres

 

USDA 13-Nov: Corn harvest 83% complete, up +13% wk/wk; Soybean harvest 93%, ...............

Monday, November 13, 2017

+3% wk/wk; Winter Wheat planted 95%, +4% wk/wk & Winter Wheat Condition 54% good-excellent, -1% wk/wk

 

'17 USDA NOV. WASDE (9th, Thurs)- Trade expects higher US corn yield est., no major changes for Soy

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

'17 USDA NOV. WASDE (9th, Thurs)- Trade expects higher US corn yield est., no major changes for Soy

 

17 USDA Oct. crop report bullish soybeans, neutral corn wheat looks like its all priced in!.........

Thursday, October 12, 2017

...........Surprise soy yields 49.5 & ending stocks 430

 

USDA 10-Oct-2017, U.S. corn & soy crop conditions G-E up +1% & corn harvest at 22% below the........

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

..........25-30% expected & soys 36% also below 42-47%

 

Conab forecasting a 13 year low in corn acres for 2017 in Brazil at the expense of soybeans but.....

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

.......forecasting soybean ranger below expectations

 

Bearish Again! '17 WASDE: 17/18 corn yield 169.9 bpa vs. expected 167.8. Soy yield 49.9 bpa vs......

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

........ expected 48.7

 

USDA (13 Sept) 1st corn harvest report 5% harvested, in line with expected 4-6%. Corn dented 75%....

Monday, September 11, 2017

USDA (13 Sept) 1st corn harvest report 5% harvested, in line with expected 4-6% vs. 5% last year & 7% average. Corn dented 75% vs. last week 60%, last year 85% & average of 81%

 

Final 17 2nd Annual Great ON Yield Tour results 163.2 bpa (+/-1%) for corn & 45.7 (+/-2%) bpa beans

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Thank You all hosts & sponsors

 

Conab forecasts a record South American #corn & #soybean crop - Large crops get larger! (chart).....

Thursday, August 10, 2017