Rally reflects a growing weather premium, with extreme heat & drought damaging Texas cotton while excessive rainfall is hurting crops across the Deep South & Southeast at a critical stage. With acreage already near decade lows, declining yields and deteriorating crop conditions are further tightening production prospects. Add more Chinese demand = $100?

There is $1.8 to $2 trillion in annual trilateral trade and ranks as one of the top three largest regional trading blocs in the world. Existing trade terms & market access continue uninterrupted. Export demand expected to remain strong and Canada remains the single largest export market for 36 US states, while Mexico is the top export market for six states. A weekly higher close in 26 Aug hog futures suggests the worst maybe be over as we slowly crave out a bottom.

Ground beef up 13% Y/Y & steak up 16%. Consumers still buying beef despite higher prices, July 4th sales up ~$352 mil Y/Y.

Americans are paying record prices for steak. Here's why demand isn't cracking

Recent rains helped & Additional rain & notable improvements in soil moisture will occur into this weekend for some parts. Much of Midwest will be left with enough soil moisture by middle of the month to support crop development into the latter part of the month if drier weather were to evolve.

Bank of Canada left interest rate unchanged at 2.25% for 5th consecutive time. Lower crude oil & higher US$ weighs. Canada's 2-yr yield fell ~130 bp below US yield- largest spread since June 2025.

This outbreak could cause $1.8 bil in damage to US. In the 1060s, US needed sterile fly facilities & 96 BILLION flies to irradicate it! Bullish cattle!

Cash strength, firm cutouts, & demand optimism ahead of summer grilling season support momentum in the market. 61% of US cattle country in drought as South & High Plains continue to struggle.

US E15 ethanol not included in the vote on farm bill that passed today- another setback but it is expected to show up again on May 13 as a standalone bill. Now is the time to pass it!!!

....High Plains with KS, NE at 76.60% vs. 2012 at 51%. Midwest only at 20.04%. 69% of US winter wheat country in drought (-1% wk/wk) vs. last year at 23%!

Many officials though opposed messaging of further rate cuts. Powell may continue? But Trump-elect Kevin Warsh could start cutting rates in June? Bank of Canada also left rates at 2.25% for 4th time in a row.

Soybean oil biofuel demand boosts all veg oils. Strong seasonals & technicals support Canadian canola- not ideal cropping weather! Prices need to go higher to ration demand.

Wheat led the rally, supported by strong global demand, poor US HRW crop ratings, & a still‑threatening forecast. Wheat strength pulled corn higher.

....while setting aside nuclear negotiations for later. UAE said it will exit OPEC on Friday. June WTI crude oil hits $100 again.

....as crude oil futures remain elevated. Weekly chart at highest since July 2023. Overbought technically near-term.

Dow +1.79% to 49,447.43. This after Iran declared Strait of Hormuz “completely open” after Israel-Lebanon ceasefire.

....that increased cost of synthetic fiber alternatives. Persistent drought across key US production areas added support. But we may be near a peak?

14 ships turned around since US blockade of Iranian ports in Persian Gulf & Gulf of Oman began (on Monday). 2 vessels transited Strait of Hormuz recently, according to LSEG.

Oklahoma still at 100% & vs 25.06% in 2012. Texas shrinks to 87.63% vs 96.79% LW & vs 81.81% in 2012. Kansas improves & mid-day model runs suggest more precip vs earlier.

.....despite peace talks failure last weekend. Senior US official said no formal in-principle agreement yet to extend ceasefire.

Central BC, N. Alberta, C. Saskatchewan, parts of Ontario & W. Quebec had double usual March precip. But S. Alberta & SW. Saskatchewan dry.

.....(& heading for break below $100?, first since Dec 2025) due to demand/supply uncertainty. Geopolitocs weighing but the 2026 grilling season could save the day!

Kansas off a big -6% to 32% G-E, Texas -2% to 15%! Oklahoma -2% to 10%! Not a lot of rain in the forecast for rest of April. May looks better but too late!

Combined net length in All grains & oilseeds cut to 782,305 contracts from near record 875,988 prior week. In real time, funds could still be long over 800,000 contracts. Do they defend until mid-May Trump/Xi meeting?

Iran War caused crude oil price spike, raising gasoline & airfare, & higher food & e-commerce purchase prices. May take weeks/months to normalize?
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/10/cpi-inflation-march-2026-breakdown.html

But problem states Oklahoma still at 100% (vs 33% in 2012) although D3-D4 eased some. Texas D0-D4 eased eased some. Recent rains helped, more needed.

USDA April WASDE a dud with no big surprises, neutral corn. Market focus back to weather, Iran War, crude oil prices & if Strait of Hormuz reopens. Trump/Xi meeting in China May 14-15, could be Game Changing? Lower corn = user buying opportunity!

Correction overdone as rains look spotty? Funds likely to wait for planting weather & Trump/Xi meeting before cutting long Ag.

S&P 500 +2.4%, Nasdaq +2.8%. 1st vessels passed thru Strait of Hormuz. May have seen the peak in the U.S. $ Index.

Announcement came less than 2 hours before his deadline. Crude oil corrects hard, breaking below $100.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/trump-iran-ceasefire-hormuz-strait.html

May debuts 26/27 projections. Corn could surprise? & look out for global adjustments? But largely a non-event this month?

Kansas winter wheat conditions down to 38% G-E, -2% wk/wk and compares to 51% G-E LY & 32% as of April 3rd, 2022. Soil moisture lagging Y/Y.

.....is a stone's throw away from record net length of 886,405 from mid-April 2022. In real time, spec funds could be record long as of this week’s update as funds go net long SRW wheat contracts for the 1st time since June of 22. The 2026 spring planting season gets started.

Conditions were split: areas east of Mississippi were notably wet, while regions to far west remained dry.

Urea, ammonia up sharply. Spring weather, prices & drought in parts of South & US Plains could impact acreage decisions.

Sharp hike vs prior 2.8% & vs 2.7% US Fed updated last week. OECD cautioned global central banks “need to remain vigilant” against inflation threats. But is it an overreaction?

Texas still 98.82% vs 2012's 83.45%. Oklahoma still 100% D0-D4, while D1-D4 up (to 98.77%), D2-D4 (77.67%) & D3-D4 (34.77%). Nebraska 100% D0-D4. West struggling, East remains wet!

Oklahoma -1% to 13% G-E. Texas -2% to 14% G-E. Colorado -10% to 14% G-E! USDA resumes weekly crop progress on April 6. US winter wheat in trouble, not enough rain!

Recent moisture helps. Texas still 98.82% vs 2012's 87.33%. Iowa 53.91% vs 2012's 39.31%. Heat & dryness US HRW wheat areas in place for another 10 days.

Unseasonably warm weather returning to US HRW region, temps unusually high. Crop & livestock stress intensifies. Limited near-term precip.

Stock futures off highs after Iran media said there were no talks but #Pakistan is mediating. Technicals suggest the war could be over soon after a parabolic move! Iran agrees to a 5-year freeze on missile program

Emergency oil stockpile releases could reach ~3 mil bpd total to address disruption. Need more refining capacity not supplies!

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/chris-wright-trump-diesel-iran-war-oil-price.html

Dec–Feb was exceptionally dry, lowest precip in 45 years (since 1980–81 winter season).

Morocco global powerhouse at 70+% of global phosphate rock reserves- Top 4 exporter at 31% mkt share. Venezuela only 3MMT urea & 3MMT ammonia!

But US Plains continue to suffer with stress centered around Texas, Oklahoma. US Winter #wheat country still at 55% drought. US total drought up due to Plains drought.

Core PPI +0.5% to +3.9%. Food +2.4%, energy +2.3%. US Fed won't cut interest rates today but 1 still expected end-2026.

Bank of Canada remains on pause despite weak economy? Rates being priced out!

That & soft labour market means trade expects BoC to maintain policy rate at 2.25% thru 2026, despite higher crude oil (Middle East Conflict) & inflation risks.

YTD cattle slaughter off Y/Y -10.2%. Exports 2.395 bil lbs, -30 mil vs prior month & -7.06% Y/Y. Avg cattle price projection $242/cwt, +$2 month/month & +$17.63 Y/Y. Friendly!

US gasoline prices up to ~$3.58/gal avg. International Energy Agency to release 400 MMbbl of oil. April WTI hit $90 again. Vessel attacks continue.

But doesn’t account for rising energy prices since Iran war broke out on Feb 28. If it becomes a long conflict, some say CPI could rise to 3.5% by end-2026, up from current 2.4% forecast?

Strong US$ with fading prospects of interest rate cut as inflation concerns intensified if Middle East conflict stretches. It weighed on metals, stocks & bond markets.

~13 mil barrels/day Crude oil passed thru in 2025 (~31% of all seaborne). ~20% of global LNG exports from Persian Gulf also at risk, NG TTF European futures surging 205% in 2-days! Thailand, India, Korea & Philippines most vulnerable.

Do we have a situation in early March where it could be boosted by all 3- safe haven metals, Crude oil & grains/Ag? Bloomberg Ag Index up almost 3% in Feb & 2+% YTD-2026.

April futures gapped up today. Strait of Hormuz closure impacts global energy markets.

We have an end date which is bullish.

Texas 98.89% D0-D4 (D1-D4 80.20%) from 98.69% (73.71%) prior week & 93.95% in 2012. Trade thinks drought will persist in South and Western Corn Belt?

As Brazilian soybeans are expected seasonally to flood the export pipelines, a lower U.S. could make U.S. soybeans more competitive globally if Brazil is having quality issues?

It briefly sank below $63,000, dragging down its miners along with it. Bitcoin mining is no longer profitable after crypto's latest plunge. Trade continues to shy away from risk...

Balance-sheet tightens- USDA 26/27 global production to fall -3% to 116 mil bales & consumption up to 120.1 mil. US export sales were a MY high last week & biggest weekly since Jun 2023. Higher Trump tariffs- a headwind.

....thanks to early concerns around winter kill and now hot-dry conditions in U.S. winter wheat country over the next 3-months! Can the short covering rally continue?

....with a 60% chance of El Nino by July/August? NOAA providing a very dry/hot 3-month pattern for US winter wheat country. Could we see very dry conditions from April - July including the U.S. Midwest?

+20,795 bought in corn to cut net short to -27,415, soybeans +40,463 to +163,611. Over 26K bought in all #wheat, +8,247 in canola to +8,392. That supported green on the futures screen.

Tariffs were imposed without Congress, which has power to tax under the Constitution! US-China trade uncertainty fuels Soybean futures volatility, U.S. $ & Stocks muted. Trump has back-up plan.

Rapidly expanded due to fierce winds gusting 60+ mph & record-breaking 80+F heat. Already consumed 283,000 acres & only 15% contained. Another early warning about a drought in 2026?

Higher soybean oil/veg oils support as biofuel policy optimism + strong crush margins (up ~20% since Sept 1, 2025) continue. AAFC’s Feb update keeps 26/27 ending stocks unchanged at 1.66 MMT.

Iran is 3rd largest exporter. Urea prices back to US$600+. Add Feb-Aug export restrictions from China & 2026 global fertilizer supplies are threatened.

....while SW corn Belt driest & would benefit from greater precip before mostly dry weather during Feb 28-Mar 3. Temps much warmer vs normal to unseasonably warm in central & southern areas.

No punitive tariffs on EU. Stocks shot up. But US would need rights to Greenland's minerals worth $5 trillion.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/21/trump-tariffs-nato-greenland-davos.html

Frosts in temps down to -18 C followed prolonged freezing rain, forming icefields over crops. Clearer picture in ~2 weeks.

Managed money fund position eased from record +138,219 @ 24 June 2025 to net short -96,131 @ Jan, 2026. But short covering underway, especially with Canada-China trade truce.

silver new record (headed to $100/oz?) while US $ index traded lower. Global uncertainty, risk & volatility continues.

.....by early March, would include mandated volume of 5.2-5.6 bil gallons for 2026 vs June proposal of 5.6 bil. Canada PM Carney visiting China with progress on energy and Carney will meet with Xi on Friday.

This though compares to 28.18% at this time in 2012. 59% of US corn area in D0-D4 & 63% of soybeans area vs 45% & 37% respectively in 2012.

This week’s bearish USDA reports maybe dented that outlook? Baseline projections at 95 mil corn this year (-3.8 mil Y/Y), we may now be lower than that?

Gold up +6.4% this year so far, Silver up a whopping +30.82%! No sign of stopping yet.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/14/silver-gold-price-record-100-5000-export-us-china.html

Recent EIA withdrawal was within expectations but soft immediate demand is weighing. Midwest temps much warmer-vs-normal to unseasonably warm next week.

But US corn yield trade est at 184 bpa & soybeans 52.7 are too high? Will the record US govt. shutdown further delay "final" est. & how accurate will they be? Futures risk still to the upside!

Retail beef supplies remain tight & prices near record highs. Packers reduce slaughter & processing. Feeders maintaining full pens rather than scaling back (expecting stronger prices ahead?

Markets shrug off the US-Venezuela geo-political tensions. Tech trade & AI are back to underpinning US stock markets to new highs as memory chip stocks provide a boost as demand is outpacing supplies.

Despite the bearish Dec Hogs & Pigs, April is +$10 above cash index on strong exports/demand & increased US disease issues. Is USDA overestimating supply?

This is up +2.1% from Sept. and 15% Y/Y. Steak prices also increased to $12.3/lb. This comes as the gov't works to cut costs via more imports and rancher support. A bullish cattle on feed report could see cattle futures fill the gap.

Goldman expects the group to power nearly half of 2025 earnings growth, with top‑7 profits rising 23% vs. 11% for the other 493. The Great 8 includes AVGO or NFLX.

The S&P 500 rose +1%, the Nasdaq increased +1.6%, and the Dow went over +350 points after the opening bell. US inflation lowered to 2.7% in Nov, the lowest since July and below expectations of 3.1%.

Fed Gov. Waller said rates may need to drop by up to 1% due to slowing job growth and rising unemployment at 4.6%. Silver is up nearly 130% YTD and more expensive than a barrel of oil!

Estimates see 26/27 crop at 71–74.4M bags, with Arabica at 46.5–49M (vs. 37.7M in 25/26) and Robusta at 24.6–25.4M. Conab also raised its '25 estimate to 56.5M bags (+2.4%).

Easing supply risks, higher OPEC+ and Americas output, soft China demand, and flat U.S. consumption are all weighing on prices. Oversupply rules the market. How low can we go?

With Belarus being the world’s #3 producer, the move adds relief to a tight global potash balance sheet so it’s a WIN, but the impact is small at 5.7% of US imports. More supply like this is badly needed!

Ukraine peace talks continue as drone strikes hit Russian oil sites. US tightens grip on Venezuela, Iran seizes tanker in Gulf of Oman. The next low crude could hit is from May!

Futures have been dropping since late Nov. amid record production in Canada with no Chinese buying. Higher soy oil or soybean futures could help, but a US delay on 2026 biofuel policy may weigh.

Storage sits 3% above norms despite a big 177 bcf draw last week. LNG feedgas hits a new monthly high, 18.7 bcfd, but strong supply keeps pressure on.

With China pulling back on soybean purchases amid the trade war, Mexico has stepped up, solidifying its spot at the top. Mexico has always been a top buyer of the US historically.

FAO sees 25–26 output at record 558.8M tonnes (+1.6%), led by Asia. USDA lowered 2025 forecast to 540.4M tonnes; consumption decreased to 541.9M. Rice is down -6.7% in the past 4 weeks, down -34.4% over the past year.

Softer data + Fed's dovish tone fuel bets on 2 rate cuts in '26 (vs Fed’s 1). Fed also starts $40B T-bill buys Dec 12. Inflation seen at 2.5% ('25) & 2.4% ('26) above the 2% target.

Split vote: 3 dissenters, one wanted 50bps, two favoured no change. Projections unchanged—only one cut expected in '26, but with a change of the guard, it will be more. The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25%.

Investors bet on the Fed’s third 25bps rate cut this year today with an 89.6% probability + tightening supply. Silver is up +109% YTD for 2025 and +253% from 2022 low.

Over 90% of Canadian fertilizer is exported and half of that goes to the US. US farmers depend heavily on Saskatchewan potash for potassium. Could we see those crop inputs increase?

...as the post-truce Chinese buying (3.32M tons vs 12M target) is taking too long + no weather scare in South America. Has too much demand & weather risk premium been removed near-term?

LNG exports +40% Y/Y to10.7 MMT as EU accelerates Russian gas phase-out '27. EIA data signal strong winter demand. CAD increases as unemployment fell to 6.5% with Q3 GDP at +2.6%!

Corn 175.6 bpa from 179.1 & soybeans 45.7 from 50.8 prior, due to the 25 drought as seen on the 2025 Great ON Yield Tour. Historically, Stats Canada  tends to underestimate vs. Agricorp final yields  due out Jan 26.

Canola also sets a new record at 21.8M tonnes (+13.3%). Soybeans down 10.2% with yields at 43.5 bpa (-11.4%). Corn down 3.1% at 162.2 bpa (-3.9%).

A surprise strong Q3 GDP (+2.6%) may boost the chances of another interest rate cut on Dec. 10th but Polymarket has forecast a 97.1% chance for unchanged.

Even with corns improvement, it's still the most net short. Meanwhile, spec funds’ crude oil net short position increased after being short for the first time EVER in the last report (Oct 14).

This would be a new record high for Canada at 38.5 mmt. Canola output is also increasing  by 1.62 at 21.7 mmt. Is the news already baked into futures? Official data will be released tomorrow!

The U.S. economy got a big boost from 202.9M U.S. shoppers over the Thanksgiving weekend (197M last year). Online sales hit $44.2B, Cyber Monday $14.25B (+7.1% YoY). Despite uncertainty, NRF projects $1.1–$1.2T holiday spending (+3.7–4.2%).

Germany, once the leader, fell to 4th after an ASF case in their country. Could Spain drop as well? 40 countries have banned Spain pork like Canada and US. Could the US benefit from this?

Cooler in Northern Plains/Great Lakes. Wetter in the Pacific NW/SE, drier in the central US. Conditions could affect winter wheat/livestock feed in U.S. Plains. Could lesson drought in Midwest?

Inventories near decade lows and markets fully pricing in a 25bp cut (87.4% chance). Silver has doubled YTD - outpacing gold’s 60% rally - and has tripled since 2020.

Two wild boars have tested positive, sparking strict biosecurity measures and trade restrictions. All pork exports to China have been cut off. Further tightens global supply.

Colder weather outlook forecasted for Midwest, Northeast & Great Lakes + record LNG exports (18 bcfd after record 16.7 in Oct). Winter is here!

CME Fed Watch shows an 85% chance of a December cut (vs 30% last week). Kevin Hassett, who has emerged as a frontrunner for next Fed Chair, has aligned with Trump in advocating rate cut.

Last years number eventually set an annual record. This surge came without any sales to China. This far exceeded the 21-22 pace, even with China’s Phase One purchases. USDA forecast is +9%.

...after a US-China call. The 12 mmt that China is expected to buy by yearned is priced in. Could we get a USDA Dec. crop report data surprise on 10-09-25?

Optimism about beef imports from the removal of US tariffs on Brazil & more Argentina imports but its less than 2.5% of US consumption! USDA launches Screwworm info site to the reopening of Mexico border? Is bottom in?

Markets brace for potential oversupply if sanctions ease & Russian output rebounds. Oil heads for its 4th straight monthly drop as funds go short for the first time ever!

Chinese export business still elusive for Canadian canola. Need a break above 200-DMA to target next higher price count at $682.1 this winter.

Coffee futures drop 4.6% to $3.91/lb; feeder cattle dropped $4/lb to $312. Beef imports are expected to surge and decrease the prices in stores. Brazil supplies 1/3 of U.S. coffee & growing beef share.

Y/Y UAN28 +26%, UAN32 +33%. Tariffs on DAP/MAP/Potash removed to ease farmer costs but more exports from China would help lessen tight global balance sheet.

Cattle futures also slip while traders await Friday’s delayed USDA Cattle on Feed report after the U.S. gov't shutdown. Will this data shift sentiment in livestock markets?

API reports +4.4M bbl build, inventories near 5-month high. IEA warns of record surplus in 2026; tanker storage hits 1.4B bbl. Jan heating oil is following suit dropping from 2024 highs

Corn harvest 91% complete (3% below 5yr avg 94%). Soybeans 95%. NE at 74% lags 23% behind 24. Winter wheat planting 92%, rated 45% below trade guess 52% G-E but too much rain = 10-12% lower acres. Wheat technical breakout?

Nasdaq is down 7.8% on continued AI valuation concerns ahead of the NDVA print tomorrow. Bitcoin is down over 41% from its peak with support at the 100-DMA at $83K. Bears get Thanksgiving & the Bulls get Christmas?

...breaking above a key $650 resistance for the 3rd day & near the 200-DMA at 661. Strong demand/tight spot supplies outweighed the USDA’s Nov. crop report dud on rumors China bought 1.2 mmt US soybeans today.

Claims record yields in several states, but USDA admits data gaps from the gov’t shutdown. Iowa & Illinois set records with southern rust & tar spot? Indiana hit record yields amid 6 diseases & drought? USDA punted until Jan 26 report.

2 deals to China totaling 332K tons and 3 deals to unknown destinations totaling 616K tons. The maximum possible could be 948K tons if the unknown sales also go to China. Less than 3 mmt was bearish more than the USDA Nov crop report on soybeans - weekly reports may show more.

Corn futures climb above $4.40/bu and above the 200-DMA at $4.356 , on lower yield estimates + strong export demand ahead of USDA Nov crop report tomorrow. Export inspections hit 1.425M tonnes; marketing year shipments 13.7M (18-yr high) +65.7%.

36.3% now drought-free (+1.5%). Still far worse than 2011—over 21% more drought, especially east. Only a couple weeks left before winter locks dry conditions in. Could be a rough start to the 2026 spring panting season? 

What if we find out next Thursday in the weekly USDA export report that China bought the 12 mmt under the radar when prices were cheaper at$10/bu as a goodwill gesture ahead of a trade truce?

...led by banks and heavyweights like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan & AmEx. AMD is leading the charge in tech again. Investors on risk on again amid market optimism that the U.S. gov't shutdown will end by the end of today.

Corn planting remains favourable with the ratio below 2.5. However, if soybeans trade much higher in 2026, look for a big shift in corn acres to soybeans from high sticky inputs.

Crude exports are down for the 3rd week as Lukoil halted shipments. Crude oil trades higher as investors digest sanction risks and oversupply worries.

The U.S. flock fell to 195M birds in 2025, down 3% from last year and 36% from the 1996 peak of 303M. Prices have surged 75% since Oct 2024, driven by the avian flu and supply chain stress.

...that dropped from 1.2M head 23/24 to 230K in 25, 100K PER MONTH! Border shut in May, reopened in July, then closed again. The funds have removed the premium in futures from this fear but US demand remains robust!

Yields are coming down the question is by how much? According to Dan Quinn, University of Purdue out of 10 U.S. states SD & ND are better than 24 all others are below.

5¢ from the winter fuel blend and around 10¢ from the new Clean Fuel Mandate, which replaced the carbon tax under the Carney budget. Industry sources say the mandate’s cost isn’t clearly disclosed, raising concerns.

35% of the region is now drought-free—up 3.5% from last week. Moderate drought (D1–D4) ticked up slightly. Soybeans not affected by drought rose 5% to 39%. But compared to 2011, conditions are still 20% worse.

Global oversupply continues to pressure prices. Strong harvests in India and other Asian exporters have boosted supply, while the FAO forecasts a record 556.4 MMT of global rice output for 2025–26.

Futures top $2.48/gal as distillate stocks drop for the 5th week, down 643k bbl and well below norms. Crude stockpiles are not helping as refineries produce less heating oil as more is shipped overseas. Winter demand is finally here!

The 14th time to reopen failed and could last until day 45. The bigger question is will the USDA be ready on Nov. 14th?

India slaps 30% tariff starting Nov 1, after China imposed 100% in March. Together, these markets make up 71% of exports—Saskatchewan alone shipped $480M to India last year. Calls grow for Ottawa to act.

Weak GDP Aug revised to -0.3%, biggest monthly drop since Dec 22 weighs. Recession? Fed budget lands today at 4p.m.  A retest of the lows at $0.69 as US dollar trades back above 1.00.

...restoring access to a major buyer of up to 1.35M tonnes. From 2015–20, Pakistan averaged 810K tonnes, while China took 5.86M in 2024.  This softens the blow from China’s reduced buying.

with plans to pause increases in Q1. Fears of oversupply and weak Asian data capped gains. Could we see the prices drop to $40 in Q1 with all of the global supply glut?

Some regions were top 10 and even top 2! November weather outlook says we could see warmer-than-normal conditions expected across much of the South & West. NOAA sees above-average temps for TX, NM, AZ.

Brazil floods the market- Unica says Center-South output up +0.9% Y/Y to 36 MMT in 25/26, Datagro sees 26/27 output hitting a record 44 MMT (+3.9%).

31% now drought-free (+2% from last week), but severe/extreme conditions increasing. D2-D4 rose to 11%. Corn & soybean impact eased slightly. Still, 69% face abnormally dry conditions—24% worse than 2011.

Odds of another cut fell to 72% from 90%. US-China talks ended with tariff relief and promises on fentanyl & soybeans. U.S. lowered tariffs on Chinese imports to 47%.

Fed also announced it would be ending reduction of its asset purchases (quantitative tightening) on Dec 1. There is some doubt on further cut in Dec.

US-China trade optimism & lower US$ support. India's 24/25 output plunges to 15-yr low (29.4 mil bales) amid climate-driven disruptions. Brazil eyes bumper 25/26 harvest.

Demand weak, inventories high, and tariffs biting Canadian lumber. U.S. duties now top 45%, squeezing Canadian softwood. Housing permits hit 4-year low, exports to China plunge. Mills curtailing, but oversupply persists.

...strong earnings (Mag 7 report this week) & 97.8% chance of another 25 bps US Fed rate cut (Oct. 29). US govt shutdown & concerns over economic uncertainty continues...

Mexico Ag Minister will meet with US Ag Secretary to try & lift cattle ban (in place since May) amid the screwworm outbreak, but new cases keep arising close to the border. Mexico aims to open a sterile fly facility by July 2026 to fight the parasite.

Sec. Bessent said the U.S. unlikely to go ahead with the proposed 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. Soybeans gap higher to start the week!

Brazil’s booming corn ethanol market is reshaping biofuels. Corn is cheaper than cane, so mills are diverting more cane to sugar. Including the strong harvests in India & Thailand, this is causing a global supply surge.

Industry leaders warn of a pivot to rivals like Brazil the 4th largest pork producer in the world at 5.3 mmt.

Trump is pushing for tariffs above the current 10%, escalating tensions with Colombia’s President Petro. With Colombia ranking as a top buyer of U.S. corn, soybean meal & wheat, ag exporters could feel the squeeze.

Trump presses buyers, plans talks with Xi. EU rolls out 19th sanctions package, banning Russian LNG. Sanctions have not worked. Russia will flood market spike in prices will be short-lived!

Anhydrous rose 13% to $838/ton, while UAN28 and UAN32 surged 33.9% and 48.4%. Despite mixed monthly shifts, prices remain elevated across the board, adding pressure to input costs.

...aluminum & energy at the Apec Summit in South Korea late next week. Canada agrees to export quotas in exchange for tariff relief. Critical minerals left out. Talks continue, but leaders urge caution.

The pullback followed Trump’s talk of more Argentina beef imports—unlikely to shift markets and could raise disease risks. New plans aim to open more untapped grazing land for producers out West.

Global supply weighs on prices. Production outlook is at 556.4M tons, hiked by  India’s strong monsoon & record stocks. Up 1M tons from Sept. and 1.2% higher than last year. Will pressure persist into early 2026?

...after Covrig Analytics projected a 4.1M MT global surplus for 2025/26. Prices have been heading downward since Oct. 7. Brazil's Center-South crushed expectations with 3.14M tons in late Sept—up 10.8% Y/Y—bringing total output to 33.52M tons.

...as Abnormally Dry or Moderate to Extreme Drought, including 76% of the country's Ag landscape up from the 70% the last 2 months. Not only is it dry across Canada but everywhere in North America.

...up 4% from last week. Severe/extreme drought ticked up slightly. Compared to 2011, all drought conditions have doubled. Rains next week will help but not drought busting.

The low levels are restricting barge travel and impacting grain transport. Grain transport by barge fell from 2.4M short tons to just over 500K (Aug 4th - Sept 12th). This is increasing transportation costs and widening the basis.

...across the Great Lakes, Texas & U.S. Northern Plains. Southern Ontario is still 100 mm away from normal rainfall. Showers are in the forecast this weekend, which could offer some much-needed relief.

Global oversupply and US–China trade tensions weigh on markets. Russia ups 2025 output forecast to 87.8 MMT - record yields in Siberia; Argentina matches record at 23 MMT from 2021-22.

...and as traders dial back BoC rate cut bets after strong jobs data. Unemployment steady at 7.1%, but job growth surprises, hinting at labour market resilience. Rate cut odds for Oct drop to 57% from 72% but a Nov. 4th budget could weigh!

China hits back at US probes with restrictions on 5 Hanwha Ocean units. Both sides hike port fees—Beijing exempts domestically built ships. China builds 35% of worlds commercial fleet. This is no longer just about tariffs.

It could ease Red Sea tensions, revive Iran talks, and increase oil exports. It's bearish crude oil as geo-political risk premiums are removed. Crude is breaking $60, is down 12.4% in 2025 and at risk of breaking the lows of $55.

Ground beef averaged $6.32/lb in August — up 13% Y/Y and 58% since 2021. The cattle herd is now the smallest since the 1950s. This is driven by drought, rising costs, and record calf prices. November feeder cattle set a new all time high.

...in 2025 in some U.S. Midwest states as storage bags are in tight supplies. Storing soybeans for a short period of time is a real thing as farmers hope for a China trade deal and better demand soon.

...in the Midwest. All levels of drought have increased since last week. Compared to 2011, you can find 30% more abnormally dry conditions. Crop affected by drought has gone up since Aug 5 including corn (+46%) and soybeans (+55%).

...as 50-DMA 640.0 dips below the 200-DMA 651.6. A bearish long-term technical signal but it could be a false signal? Funds/Stats Canada are wrong about production at 21 mmt, yields in "#garden" spots in Saskatchewan below avg.

...— after adding 186K in the past 12 months. With lower feed costs (down 60%) in the last few years + strong beef prices have boosted the industry revenue by $1.50–$2.50/cwt.

Delayed until Nov. 9th but the trade is expecting lower yields with the U.S. corn harvest at 30% & soybeans at 40%. Corn yield lower (185.0) but higher ending stocks. Soybean production falls (4.27 BBu), tighter stocks.

...near the U.S. border in Nuevo Leon. The 2nd confirmed case in 2 weeks as Mexican imports remain suspended. Higher cattle prices to continue L-T as herd growth through 27 remains limited.

...continuing its cautious unwind of past cuts. This is the same increase in output as Oct. Saudi pushes for market share; Russia urges restraint. Crude trades near $61 amid surplus concerns and 13% YTD price drop.

...as the U.S. government shutdown drags on. With key economic/ag data delayed as investors keep flocking to safe havens. Bitcoin is up 295% to new records while gold has surged 48% YTD.

...respectively. Top estimates from USDA, Stone X, S&P Global & Linn are forecasting lower yield forecasts vs. the USDA but we will not know the true extent of the damage from a dry finish/extreme disease until the Nov 10th USDA crop report.

—driven by risk-off sentiment, supply shortfalls, and safe-haven demand amid the U.S. shutdown. Output down ~16% from 2021 peak. Rate cut expectations fuel precious metals rally.

...weakened by disease like Southern Rust, the forecasted 40+ mph wind gusts sweeping across the Midwest over the next 10 days would not be welcomed news for farmers.

...has led to a 100% chance of an Oct. Fed cut & another 88% of a Dec. cut. Unemployment changed little in Sept. (4.34%) & new hirings were at the lowest since '09. Economic uncertainty is helping Gold reach safe haven record highs.

...has seen one of the Hottest ends to the month of September in 133 years! Ontario was also hot/dry with 46 mm east of Brussels. The summer like weather continues until mid-next week before a cold snap by mid-October!

— as traders weigh strong West African crop prospects against weak demand. Above-average rains in Ivory Coast, the worlds largest cocoa producer, is set to boost the Oct–Mar main harvest.

...corn & wheat surprise vs expectations, friendly/neutral soybeans. Futures close lower. Higher 25/26 US corn carry-in & bigger wheat crop going into the next WASDE. Government shutdown looms?

... a 5-week high after Trump announces new tariffs! 10–50% duties on imported wood products starting Oct. 14. Canada, the largest US supplier, hit hardest—already facing 35%+. Homebuilders warn of rising costs.

...by ongoing Canada-China trade uncertainty & tariffs with big supplies incoming as harvest wraps. Weekly exports lagging Y/Y. Despite lower Sept. 25/26 output est., trade estimates still sees 21+ MMT Canadian crop? 

US corn demand last quarter was likely record strong = lowest ending stocks in 4 yrs? Record soybean crush & strong start to 25/26 US wheat exports also last Q.

...as global markets grapple with rising economic uncertainty & intensifying geopolitical tussles, fueled in large part by Trade War 2.0. Supply-demand fundamentals support the rising momentum in 'safe haven' precious metals.

Global surplus projected at 2.8 MMT for 25/26 vs. a 4.7 MMT deficit last season. Lower crude oil prices dampen ethanol demand & sugar outlook. Brazil’s crushing volumes remain historically high.

Employers are reluctant to lay off employees but hiring slowed sharply. GDP revised up to 3.8% in Q2, driven by stronger consumer spending. US Fed rate cut odds: 85.5% chance of a 0.25% cut to 3.75–4.% on Oct. 29.

With US tariffs (50%) hitting Indian exports over Russian crude oil ties, Delhi’s push to boost US oil & gas imports could be a strategic reset. The US also hiked H1-B visa fees to $100K from $10K, impacting Indian skilled workers mobility to the US.

...(~650K tons) for November after Buenos Aires scrapped grain export taxes. Another blow to 🇺🇸 U.S. farmers — already sidelined by low prices and lost market share.

Gold prices have surged 44% YTD-2025 — the biggest annual gain since 1979! Investors continue to flock to it as an inflation hedge, while central banks (led by China) are stacking bullion to diversify reserves.

...but Still Strong Weekly inspections fell to 52.3 mil bu (from 59.6), still near the high end of trade estimates. However, Cumulative 25/26 US exports now at 137.5 mil bu, up +59% Y/Y.

Soybeans futures hit a 6-week low as last week's call between Presidents Trump of U.S. & Xi of China showed no progress on ag export talks. Market reacts to continued trade/demand uncertainty. More meetings expected.

...China hasn’t bought a single U.S. soybean cargo at the start of the export season. Last year, China made up $12B+ in U.S. soy sales. Now? Zero. Ag is once again a pawn in the U.S.-China trade chessboard.

By 2005, it was 144. In 2025, that number has climbed to 172! Wow! One farmer, feeding a small town—every year.

This drop is down to 37.1M head, after strong gains in 2024 (+16%) and 2025 (+3%). Meanwhile, US beef slaughter is expected to drop 4.8% — tightening supply and turning the outlook bullish for 2026 live/feeder cattle futures.

US butter futures just hit their lowest level since November 2021 — down nearly 28% since July — as near-record production sparks fears of a glut. Even strong demand isn’t enough to hold up prices.

Wheat up 3.03% MoM, led by Durum (+7.52%). Flaxseed jumps 11.28% – biggest mover. Corn & oats dip slightly while Canola goes up (+0.46%). Overall: modest gains across major crops

From drones to disease detection, AI is now mainstream in precision ag. 80% of farmers using AI report better decisions. 52% say it’s boosting profitability. Is your farm next?

From June 20 to August 21, 2025, much of the U.S. Midwest saw its hottest average low temperatures on record. The nights offered little relief at the wrong time?

Arabica beans jumped 6.2% to $4.21, fueled by supply fears, Brazil drought, U.S. tariffs, & shrinking reserves. Prices up 50% since Aug. Your morning brew might be getting pricier.

USDA forecasts China imports at 112 MMT up from the 106.5 mmt in 24/25. If Brazil is exporting 112 mmt of their soybeans to China will global demand shift to the U.S.?

From 726K barrels/day in 2015 to 2.5M/day by 2025.

The Nasdaq closed at all-time highs for the 5th day in a row—its first perfect week since July, fueled by a surge in Tesla. Along with the Dow and S&P, all three major indexes finished the week in the green.

SURPRISE FROM USDA: despite lowering yield by 2.1 bpa to 186.7 bpa, RECORD corn production projected HIGHER to 16.814 bil bu, up 72 mil bu, owing to higher planted & harvested acreage! Almost 99 mil planted, WOW!

—and Wall Street is watching closely. This dip isn’t just a market blip; it’s a potential early warning sign of broader economic cooling on Main Street.

.....as they fight for market share at the expense of prices. The modest increase eased fears of a supply glut, but potential new sanctions on Russian crude lent some support.

D1-D4 up from 2.41% to 14.18%. This reminds of Sept. 2011 when D0-D4 was 48.36% & D1-D4 17.11%. It was followed by the 2012 drought. This could be the start of the 89-yr drought cycle, was delayed by a year into 2026.

both lower than expected. Reliability questioned as estimates did not consider late-August weather & crop variability.

Flash drought concerns for the ECB expected to last thru mid-September. Soft frost expected next week in the Northern Plains.

Also, Pickett Fire in Napa Valley burned thru 6,800 acres (largest wildfire in region this year), impacting wine industry, caused $65 mil Ag loss.

Dry weather in lower Eastern Midwest not ideal for pod filling, but cooler temps should limit stress, & rain expected to return by next week.

....which do not fully account for disease pressures. 15 of the 17 years, they walked it back by final January Crop Report. What will be the final 25/26 corn yield?

Labor market in good shape & economy resilient. But tariffs raising inflation risks- Stagflation! CME fedwatchtool points to possible 0.25% cut in Sept.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/22/powell-indicates-conditions-may-warrant-interest-rate-cuts-as-fed-proceeds-carefully.html

50% tariff on Brazil coffee has made exports to US unviable & disrupted markets. 2025 arabica crop yielded ~10% less vs. expected, & Aug frosts likely to cut into 2026 output. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-tariffs-behind-surge-global-arabica-prices-brazil-exporters-group-says-2025-08-22/

Q2 had most outbreaks in wean-to-market since 2013. Pork production for 2nd half 2025 to drop on tighter hog supplies.

A shift in biofuel feedstock from imported used cooking oil to more canola oil? It could also be used for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)?

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/article/how-a-shift-to-canola-based-biofuel-could-help-make-up-for-lost-chinese-market/

Alison Robertson, field crop pathologist from University of #Iowa is tracking crop diseases with https://cropprotectionnetwork.org/ & says that southern rust is in every county in IA. July was warm & very wet across IA. It's widespread, the worst in 25 years!

https://crops.extension.iastate.edu/post/southern-rust-continues-develop-across-iowa

Prairies with highest concentration. Due to high temps, persistent drought, & depleted soil moisture levels. Likely to impact crops?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/11/canada-wildfire-season

He extended China's tariff deadline (Aug 12th) by 90-days. Fireworks ahead for soys?

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-soybean-prices-jump-after-trump-urges-china-quadruple-orders-2025-08-11/

Iowa with 200+% of normal precip in July is said to be seeing disease issues & excess moisture stress but funds are convinced of a record USDA US #corn yield nonetheless! Will, the USDA have to walk back yields?

 "Made in the US" could even double iPhone prices? White House says now Apple’s total US investment over next 4 years totals $600 bil!

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/06/tim-cook-trump-apple-white-house.html

Less than 20% or 2% of India GDP exposed to US. Certain sectors disproportionately exposed. UBS estimates $8 bil worth of exports vulnerable.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/06/how-will-trumps-50percent-tariffs-on-india-impact-its-economy.html

Well supplied global market and poor global demand is weighing. Could we get a post-harvest rally by the end of August as the Northern hemisphere harvest comes to a close?

Currently, Taiwan produces them for Nvidia, Amazon, Apple & AMD. Could put a cap on near-term tech gains and S & P 500 Index. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/trump-tariffs-chips-semiconductors.html

Deadline Aug. 12. Based on current tariffs, China exports to US could drop by $485 bil by 2027, US trade to China to drop by $101 bil.

June headline inflation up 1.9%, BoC sees underlying inflation around 2.5%. Is US-Canada trade deal likely on Aug 1 tariff deadline? 90-day tariff extension for Mexico.

Trade sees declining chances of Sept. rate cut? US June inflation up to 2.7% Y/Y while Q2 GDP jumped 3% vs. 2.3% expected & reversing Q1 decline of -0.5%. US$ at 2-month high!

Old crop US corn & soy exports raised but new crop soy exports cut, new crop acreage/harvested dropped for both. US wheat output surprisingly higher. Brazil corn output only up +2 MMT, Argentina soy output up +0.9 MMT.

EU accounts for 4.5-5% of global production & expected to import 20+MMT in 25/26. Tighter global supply could support trade values & futures?

Inflation still above 2%- a sticky point! Next FOMC July 29-30 but CME FedWatch says cut possible only by Sept 16-17 meeting? US tariffs remain a headwind. 

Every year since 2010 a US corn condition @ 70+% resulted in US corn yield that was 2%-4% above trend. This year headed to 184.62-188.24 bpa? Futures likely to retest 2024 low, $3.85?

Some chatter of ridge & heat incoming but we could be headed to 185-190 bpa with an ideal finish (last year's poor finish was what kept the crop sub-180 bpa).

.....small in comparison to China but it was a risk on day with corn & soybeans up 12/25.6 cents. 9 more deals to go by July 15th.

We go back to watching weather in key pollination month July.

Higher-than-expected 120-179 pounds market hogs for slaughter during mid-July to Aug. 4 straight quarters now with avg. no. of pigs saved per litter set a new record!

.....other countries sell U.S. assets and US$ over time. US Q1-2025 Final GDP Q/Q @ -0.5% vs. Q4 at +2.4% do we avoid a recession in Q2 GDP?

Will we get a surprise with higher than expected US quarterly old crop corn stocks in June, due to higher (revised) yields?

Gasoline prices led decline in energy, dropping -15.5% vs. 18.1% in April. Bank of Canada will decide on rate cuts (from 2.75%) on July 30th after 2 consecutive pauses. But a rate cut more probable in October.

Feed, waste & dockage dropped further to -0.959 MMT from -0.609. "This is expected to be updated, pending revisions by Statistics Canada in upcoming releases." Ending stocks dropped to 1.15 MMT from 1.3

Funds could overshoot the mark just in time for 2025 wheat harvest, provide an end to 3-yr bear market & a selling opportunity.

High-pressure ridge in central US pushed out to early-July vs. end-June but heat over the weekend & early next week could stress crops.

Wheat futures broke higher. Add heavy rains for US wheat country & global production concerns = classic fund short covering rally!

Median end of 2025 @ 3.9%, end of 2026 3.6%. GDP outlook cut. No signs of US economy weakening near term.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/18/fed-meeting-live-updates-feds-interest-rate-projections-loom.html

If these million dollar rains do not verify, canola & spring wheat futures could lead grains complex higher with no drought in US right now.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/forecasts/whats-the-wettest-month-in-your-corner-of-canada

If it does not rain weekend of June 14-15 in Alberta Saskatchewan & Manitoba, new crop will narrow gap with old crop July 2025 futures. Impressive rally despite anchor from lower Soybean oil futures (due to more US biofuels policy headlines).

Weekly ethanol output though was record high. US EPA dragging its feet on biofuel policy- possibly by end-June? Summer driving season fuel demand & higher crude oil prices could support.

....with Trump expressing doubt they will reach a nuclear deal. US  is preparing partial evacuation of embassy in Iraq, military authorized voluntary departure of troops’ dependents from the Middle East.

Ex-food & energy, core CPI at +0.1% & 2.8% vs. forecasted +0.3% & 2.9%. Weakness in energy helped offset some increases. Experts warning U.S. inflation could rear its ugly head again in July with a 3.0% print.

Near 2-week high as weather risk premiums bake into grains complex. Soy trading range-bound since Aug last year, threatening to break out above recent range high ~$10.80/bu, followed by resistance ~$11.

Maybe notable change Brazil corn with pvt. est. 140 MMT vs. USDA 131 MMT. Old crop 24/25 corn ending stocks -25 million does not move the needle. Report a non-event?

China total May exports up +4.8% Y/Y in US$, imports plunged -3.4% vs estimated -0.9%.  Exports to US -34.5% Y/Y & imports -18%!

....so rains will start to diminish with warmer temperatures. This ridge is weak but funds are starting to add a weather risk premium on this extended forecast.

....at critical time due to increasing trade war & geopolitical uncertainty. They now project inflation to avg 2% in 2025 vs March proj. @ 2.3%. Q1-2025 euro zone expanded +0.3%.

The smoke/haze can drop the ET "evapotranspiration" rate & protect the corn from heat/stress but no hard evidence. USDA June '23 corn yield 181.5 vs. final record 177.3. Can Jan '26 U.S. corn yield break 180?

It was due to expire on June 1. Great news for 25/26 Western Canada marketing! Pvt estimates for 25/26 imports at 1.5-2 MMT vs 2.3 MMT prior year. China still at 100% tariffs.

Not ideal for soggy regions & winter wheat harvest but "rain makes grain." More heat is needed.

Record was 2011 @ 1,662, 2024 2nd @ 1,018. YTD-2025 is ~40% higher vs avg. MS (97), IL (93), MO (89), TX (87) lead. Violent tornados (EF4) @ 5 already vs last decade @ 0-6 for the entire yr!

Saskatchewan has 176 burning & Alberta sees temp shutdown of some oil & gas production. Like 2023, wildfire CO2 could hamper/boost North American crops.

Low USDA HRS crop conditions  (45% G-E, among lowest in 4 decades, yields in jeopardy?) + dry forecast for Western Canada could spark funds to short-cover at month end. 2025 US acreage lowest in half a century+

....as they are yet to announce tariff-free status, which expires on June 1. Given recent Indian business, it is very similar to China front-running canola imports before their 100% levy on canola oil?

Summer rain in June is lacking with the North projected to receive inadequate precip (0 - 1 inch) while central parts remain dry (0.2-0.6 inches). US corn exports to Mexico is ~35% of total shipped in 24/25.

Trump to push back 50% levy deadline to July 9, which is also when broader global reciprocal tariffs get put back on. Aug 11 is when 90-day pause ends for China tariffs.

So AAFC cut forecast on feed/waste/dockage to -0.61 MMT??? They are overestimating both 24/25 & 25/26 ending stocks & futures will need to trade higher to ration demand!

Following trade war headline lethargy, it climbed by 42+% since the April low. Some de-escalation in trade wars boosts stocks & bitcoin. Easing regulation also anticipated.

Fundamentally supported by dryness in Northern Hemisphere production areas. Record heat in China’s main growing region & now poor weather moves into Russia’s main growing region Rostov but a dead cat bounce.

Prices dropped after carbon tax removed on fuel prices. Lower crude oil prices also helped. But core inflation measures rose in April like food. Could lend support to another rate cut on June 4th after last months pause.

 France, EU's top wheat exporter, looking at worst export program since 96/97 as excessive precip weighed on harvest. Cheap Black Sea exports & geopolitical tensions also weigh.

.....49.9 LY & 45.1 bpa 5-yr avg. Biggest Day 1 since 2021. Spring rains helped but variability (drought) & disease pressure seen.

https://kswheat.com/harvest/wheat-tour

This tightens supply for an already tight market. Cattle futures gapped up to new record highs. No sign of a technical top yet?

US suspends Mexican cattle, horse and bison imports over screwworm pest | Reuters

Total 12,000 containers for Amazon, Home Depot, Ikea, Ralph Lauren, Tractor Supply, P&G, LG, Samsung, etc. Trump said tariff could drop to 50-80% next week based on trade talks?

 Chinese goods hit by Trump 145% tariffs begin arriving at U.S. ports

June live cattle futures up +$1.725 to close @ $214.250, another record high!

Fundamental supply tightness & no signs of expansion continue to support.

Non-tariff barriers reduced for US beef, ethanol, chemicals, etc. 10% US baseline tariff remains. This will go long way towards helping fund sentiment near-term.

.....in new crop balance sheets. Pre-report est. for 25/26 US corn ending stocks at 2 bil bu & soybeans at 380 mil could be too low?

....as Trump’s tariffs worsen, with Ag worst hit. Due to China cancellations, US imports still plummet, with a 43% wk/wk drop in containers thru April 28.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/06/trump-tariffs-hit-us-exports-import-covid-level-event.html

Next low $4.503, which takes out near term support. Big US 2025 crop remains a headwind! Above avg/record planting pace for corn & soybeans by May 12 as window wide open for next 5-7 days for most.

....-19.9% March 2022 peak (Russia-Ukraine war). Meat price index +3.2%, led by pork prices & strong bovine meat import demand.

Conab @ 45.875 MMT Brazil 25/26 output, up +4% Y/Y. ISMA @ 26.4 MMT India o/p, off -17.5% Y/Y to 5-yr low but recent rains were 105% of long-term avg.

Iowa State Univ said, in 2016-2020, PRRS caused ~$1.2 bil US loss/yr, +80% vs a decade ago- most economically damaging illness!

https://www.nationalhogfarmer.com/livestock-management/fda-approves-prrs-resistant-pig

AAFC's 25/26 Canada ending stocks @ 0.4 MMT unchanged Y/Y, so are yield & exports- US accounts for 80+% of exports. It is likely benefitting from no US reciprocal tariffs?

Ukraine & Europe reject part of US peace plan that recognizes Russian control over occupied regions. New counterproposals demand stronger security, sanction relief, & no limits on NATO ties. Will a peace deal be reached in Trump’s first 100 days in office?

China has quietly exempted some US imports from its 125% tariffs, but denies Trump’s claim that trade talks are underway. While Trump hints at progress, Beijing signals it’s ready for a long fight. Is this a sign of possible de-escalation?

IMF says US tariffs could shrink the fiscal deficit to 6.5% of GDP in 2025, down from 7.3% - if tariff revenues rise. But growth & inflation risks loom as the trade war heats up. Forecasts remain shaky as consumers, imports, & Congress all add uncertainty.

Oil prices have fallen over 2% as reports suggest OPEC+ may speed up output hikes in June. Brent oil prices dropped to $61.76 and WTI down at $61.76. Rising US crude stocks, OPEC+ tensions, & global policy shifts add to the pressure!

Winter wheat conditions show some major year-over-year shifts! NE and SD G-E ratings down 38% and 49%, P-VP up. On the flip side, WA stands out with a 21% improvement in G-E ratings. Tough season shaping up for several key growing states!

Big moves with U.S.-India trade! PM Modi & VP JD Vance state “significant” progress toward a new bilateral deal. Cooperation in energy, defense & tech was highlighted, backing a roadmap for reciprocal trade. Goal: $500B in trade by 2023, up from $129B in 2024.

Gold hits new high above $3,400/oz as U.S.-China trade tensions & tumbling U.S. dollar drive safe-haven asset demand! Up $700+ in 2025, gold’s bullish run shows no signs of slowing down but may be nearing overbought/overvalued conditions. A correction is possible.

The market does not like idea that the US president could manipulate the Fed chair position, amid the lack of confidence in US tariff policy.

Just in! Trump says the US will sign a minerals deal with Ukraine next week, granting access to key resources after weeks of tension. Despite his pro-Russia stance and calls for Ukraine to repay past aid, the deal signals a shift in US-Ukraine relations.

2 more Iowa biodiesel plants reportedly idled over uncertainty around 45Z tax credits. That brings the total to 5 offline—about 1/3 of the state’s capacity. The industry has become very impatient waiting for clarity on policy & it might not happen until 2026!

It’s been 90 days from Trump’s inauguration, & since then, 86 tariff announcements have been made - almost 1 per day! Tariffs on China have soared 245%, auto imports now face a 25% levy, markets are rattling, prices are climbing, & global retaliation is heating up!

China’s new rare earth export controls could cripple US defense tech, says CSIS. With no heavy REE processing, the US can’t fill the gap if China cuts supply—a major risk as these minerals power jets, missiles & radar. “The US will be on the back foot for now.”

USDA’s latest US winter wheat conditions show steep drops! NE saw the biggest drop in G-E ratings, -40% from last year. SD (-35), TX (-25), & OR (-20) also show declines. WA improved by 24%, and both CO & MT saw modest gains. Weather continues to hit hard!

Xi Jinping visits Vietnam, pushing deeper China-Vietnam ties as U.S. tariffs loom (145% on China, 46% on Vietnam). Dozens of deals signed – supply chains, rail links, AI. Vietnam keeps it cool doing business with both sides to not get caught in the crossfire!

China has signed two agricultural deals with Spain for pork & pork varieties, strengthening EU ties amid rising US trade tensions. Analysts suggest Beijing may ease its EU pork probe, while US producers face market uncertainty due to ongoing trade issues.

US drought - Midwest better off vs start of year as precipitation helped (43% in D0-D4 now vs 59%). 28% of corn area in drought vs 45% @ start of yr. soybeans 22% now vs 37%. US winter wheat drought though worsened from 26% to 32%. April 2012 conditions similar to 2025!

Trump says undocumented farm workers may be allowed to return legally – if they first leave the US & farmers petition for them. Policy details remain unclear & farm industry groups warn that deporting large numbers of workers may grind the food system to a halt!

Trump temporarily slashes new global tariffs to 10% & pauses full rollout for 90 days as 75+ countries seek talks. But China gets hit hard—tariffs now at 125% “effective immediately” over its “lack of respect”. Do not try and be a hero in these markets!

China hits back at Trump’s 104% tariffs with 84% levies on US goods—up from 34%, starting Thursday. While other countries seem willing to negotiate, China takes a hard-line stance! The trade war is heating up, spooking markets & dragging S&P 500 into a bear market

U.S. winter wheat conditions for week of April 7, 2025 show huge YoY changes! Nebraska (-31%), South Dakota (-42%), & Oklahoma (-26%) saw the largest declines in G-E ratings. While Washington (+21%), Montana (+13%), & Idaho (+6%) saw the biggest improvements.

A U.S. oil & biofuel coalition urging the EPA to boost 2026 renewable fuel blending to 25B gal (vs. 22.33B in 2025) ~ 953M more corn bushels! With biomass diesel at 5.25B/gal, this supports corn futures & may be bullish for 2026 but U.S. trade war hurdle still must be jumped!

Crude oil closed at $62.61, its lowest since 2021, as fears grow that new US tariffs will slow global economic growth. Oil fell 6% today after a 6.6% drop yesterday, with an unexpected OPEC+ output hike adding more pressure. Could crude dip below $60 by Monday?

China is tightening restrictions on local firms investing in the U.S. as Trump ramps up tariffs! This move could further strain US-China trade ties, making business operations more challenging. Existing investments & ongoing operations are to remain unaffected.

Pump the breaks on 45Z & US biofuels excitement – could take 9-12 months for Treasury & White House to give green light to move forward! Higher soy oil futures are key to why soybean & canola futures are bouncing; Funds are getting ahead of themselves.

Heavy rain is set to drench areas from eastern Texas to Ohio – some spots could see up to 15 inches in the next 10 days! Flooding risks are high, and corn & soybean planting may be delayed. Farmers aiming for early corn planting could be out of luck.

TX wheat conditions worsened, with G-E ratings down to 26%, while P-VP remains high. CO saw improvement, with G-E up to 67% from 60%. SD struggling most, with 50% of its crop at P-VP, the worst on the chart. 38% of US winter wheat remains in a drought vs. last year at 22%.

USDA 2025 Prospective Plantings Report show US farmers plan to plant 95.3M acres of corn, up 5% YoY & above trade expectations. Soybean & wheat acres lower than last year & below estimates. With shifting acreage, what does this mean for future grain prices & profitability?

China to ramp up food security efforts-planning to develop 200 million acres of high-standard farmland by 2030! By 2035, all eligible “permanent basic farmland"-protected for grain production–will be upgraded. A big push for stable grain & domestic production!

Trump announces 25% tariffs on foreign-made cars & auto parts starting April 3 & May 3, lasting through his term! GM down 7%, Tesla up 5% (cars made in US). Analysts predict car prices could rise by $3-15K. UAW backs the move to bring jobs back to the U.S.

BULLISH USDA March Hogs & Pigs! All hogs inventory, kept for breeding & marketings lower vs expected & Dec report. Pig crop & pigs/litter @ 11.65 below expected but still +6% vs 2 yrs ago & +1% Y/Y! All weight groups below expected. Look for sharp hog futures bounce!

Trump gearing up to strike back next week! Global trade restrictions hit 4,650 among G20 nations— up 75% since 2016 & nearly 10x since 2008. US tariffs average tariff rate is up 8.4%, matching 1946 levels. He is trying to level the playing field.

U.S. copper tariffs may arrive in weeks, much earlier than expected. Trump is pushing for a 25% duty to boost domestic production, causing copper prices to hit record highs! A rush has been triggered to ship metal to the US; manufacturers brace for higher costs.

If the U.S. slaps tariffs on Venezuelan oil, China & US take the biggest hit! Spain & Cuba may feel it, but smaller buyers like Singapore & Russia? Not so much. Rising costs may push China to look elsewhere; US refiners face price hikes. US tariff war is escalating not softening.

U.S. winter wheat conditions are struggling, with Oklahoma and Colorado seeing the biggest declines in G-E ratings compared to last year. Meanwhile P-VP ratings have jumped, especially in Oklahoma and Texas. Could this signal lower yields & supply concerns?

Trump announces 25% tariffs on countries buying oil & gas from Venezuela starting April 2 in attempts to increase pressure on President Maduro and limit China's influence in Venezuela’s oil industry. Analysts are expecting this to push oil prices higher, but could be short lived as OPEC reels in production cuts from the past 2-years starting in April.

CFTC net managed money positions for the week ending March 18 show funds are short on everything except corn—now even canola! Could corn flip to short by next week, depending on news from Liberation Day and the USDA planting survey?

US & Canadian biofuel producers are cutting output as Trump’s trade policies & subsidy uncertainty shake the industry. Tariffs, tax credit confusion & oversupply crush margins, with US renewable diesel production down 17% in Jan. A major hit to ag & clean energy.

USDA is issuing up to $10 billion to farmers through the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) for the 2024 crop year! Sec. Rollins says payments will help offset rising costs & market uncertainty and secure financing for next season. Signup starts today.

China lifts a 2-year ban on poultry imports from Argentina, reopening a key supply amid the US trade war! Argentina was China’s 3rd largest chicken supplier, providing 590K tons in 2022. This move follows China’s 15% duty on US poultry, part of $21B in tariffs.

Brazil is set to boost ethanol blend in gasoline from 27.5% to 30%, adding 1.3B liters of demand annually! This move aims to cut fuel imports, lower gas prices, & support the booming biofuel industry, w/ sugar-cane mills being pushed to switch from sugar to ethanol.

U.S. winter wheat conditions ending week of Mar. 16 show key changes! Worsening P-VP ratings in OK, a decline in CO G-E, and a drop in G-E across all states indicate poorer conditions for 2025. "Bomb Cyclone" this week may wreck havoc again in Western, KS & US Panhandle!

US meat exports to China face a major hit! Nearly 1K processing plants risk losing access this Sunday, threatening $5B adding to meat exporters uncertainty & tensions. Stricter port inspections & retaliatory tariffs are already squeezing the market, what's next?

Trump threatens 200% tariff on EU wine & spirits after Europe plans a 50% tax on American whiskey. EU is vowing to fight back – risking price increased on both ends! With job losses and halted shipments on the rise, this trade war is about to hit your wallet!

Trade tensions rise! EU slaps 25% tariffs on US corn (Apr 1) & soybeans (mid-Apr). This is a bigger hit to soy - with EU imports ~4M metric tons of U.S. soy/year vs. 2M metric tons of corn on a good year! Could this be the start of a larger ag war?

February CPI rose 0.2%, bringing annual inflation to 2.8%. Core CPI also increased 0.2%, its lowest since April 2021! Egg prices surged 10.4%, while airline fares dropped. Tariffs continue to impact inflation & the Fed is expected to hold rates steady.

Stats Canada 2025 planting intention numbers are out! Canadian farmers plan to seed less canola, while wheat, oats, and corn acres are all up Y/Y. But with shifting prices and tariff talks, will these numbers hold?

Trump raises tariffs on Canadian steel & aluminum to 50% after Ontario 25% tax on US electricity exports + warns of more tariffs on US autos if others aren’t lifted. Premier Ford to keep countermeasures, criticizing Trump’s attack. April 2nd tariffs may be 50% too!

Canola futures tank as China slaps 100% tariffs on Canadian canola oil & meal with China rapeseed & meal prices soaring! May futures limit down yesterday & trading lower today. Industry is calling for urgent government action & downside warning ahead.

China’s new Canadian tariffs – $1B on canola oil, $1.6B on pork & seafood – send a warning over Canada’s alignment with US trade policy! Analysts see it as a response to Ottawa’s October tariffs & Trump’s pressure. Excluding canola, does this mean room for negotiation?

Ontario imposes 25% levy on US-bound electricity in retaliation for Trump's tariffs. The move impacts 1.5M customers in NY, MI, & MN, generating $300K-$400K daily & costing customers an extra $100/month. Ford warns surcharge could rise if trade war escalates.

The U.S. hits Iran with tough sanctions, aiming to cut oil exports from 1.5M bpd to a low level & cut off financial access. Oil prices reacted bullishly as markets react to tightening supply – Treasury Secretary Bessent warns Iranians: “Move your money out of the rail”!

U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick says Trump will "probably" announce a tariff compromise with Canada & Mexico, scaling back some of the 25% tariffs. Talks are ongoing, but no full rollback expected. Announcement could come as early as today!

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model estimates U.S. GDP is down at -2.8% this quarter, compared to +2.3% last week. Driven by a record-high trade deficit & weak manufacturing, signaling broader economic softness w/ concerns over Trump’s policies & possible recession.

OPEC+ will proceed with its planned April oil output increase-the first since 2022, despite U.S. pressure! Production to increase by 138K bpd, with WTI oil trading 2% lower near $67/barrel. L-T bearish target L-T channel support at $63.65. OPEC+ says the hike may be paused or reversed based on market conditions.

U.S. February winter wheat conditions are in! Key changes? KS G-E rose 3%, OK VP/P rating up to 29% (up from 24% last week), TX saw its headed crop up to 8% (from 6%), and NE VP/P conditions increased to 28% (up from 24%). US wheat takes a back seat as tariffs push futures to new lows!

Favorable conditions result in Australia’s ABARES projecting 2024/2025 wheat production at 34.1 mmt, up 31% from last year and well above the 10-year average with exports +5%! The initial projection for 25/26 is for 30.5 mmt down 11%.

China is gearing up to hit back against new U.S. tariffs, putting American ag exports in the crosshairs! Key products like soybeans & meat may take a major hit, impacting farmers & trade. Mexico may match US tariffs. Increasing trade war concerns will keep commodities & stocks hostage!

U.S. Inflation eased in January with PCE up 0.3% MoM & 2.5% YoY. Personal income rose 0.9%, but spending fell 0.2%, increasing savings to 4.6%. Markets expect 2 rate cuts by year-end. Canada's Q4 GDP grew 2.6%, exceeding expectations. Tariffs may slow Q1 2025 growth.

U.S. agriculture trade deficit is projected to hit a record $49B in FY 2025, with exports up $170.5B and imports surging to $219.5B. Mexico remains the top buyer at $30.2B, while exports to Canada decrease to $28.4B and China to $22B due to weaker soy, grain & cotton sales.

Trump confirms Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s visit to sign a rare earth minerals deal, creating a joint fund for reconstruction with Ukraine contributing 50% of future revenue. The U.S. has committed $119.5B in aid, but security guarantees remain a key issue.

Mexico's drought worsens - impacting import demand. Sinaloa, Sonora & Chihuahua face ‘exceptional’ conditions, w/ reservoirs at 30-year lows. Nearly half of Sinaloa’s farmland unplanted. Government launches $636M cloud seeding & aid initiative as water shortages could persist for the next 6 months!

Winter wheat conditions are slipping in Texas & Oklahoma! Texas: G-E% down 5% from January, 15% since November. P-VP% climbing. Oklahoma: G-E% down 11% from January, 14% since November. P-VP% rising. Drier conditions are taking a toll!

Trump confirms US tariffs on Canada & Mexico are back on next week after a temporary pause! Citing border security & claiming the US has been “taken advantage of,” 25% tariffs will soon be in effect. China’s already hit back - will Mexico & Canada follow?

U.S. farm bankruptcies up 55% in '24 (216 filings), ending a 4-year decline - signaling a turning point for farm financial health. Cash receipts for corn, soybeans & cotton down, gov’t payments reduced, & farm income fell 4%, adding strain on farmers.

Funds record long canola futures +73,241 (prev. 70K Jan 22). CGC reports YTD exports 5.67 MMT & domestic use 6.19. Ending stocks up 0.050 MMT but 0.300 down vs. 23. With tight supply/strong demand, in a tariff free world futures will need to ration more demand.

Nutrien warns US farmers will bear the cost of Trump’s 25% tariff on Canadian fertilizer, set for March. Prices could increase $100+/ton for potash as 80% is exported to US as demand rises. 95-97M corn acres & weather setbacks drive higher needs. Nutrien remains optimistic!

The USDA is releasing $20M in frozen farm contracts, a fraction of the funding halted by the Trump admin’s gov overhaul. Some funds are tied to Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act including ~$19.5B for farm programs over 10 years. Delays have hit farmers in need!

Slow start for top producer Ivory Coast for 2025/26 cocoa sales with less than 200k tons sold by early Feb. A cocoa rally price has raised hedging costs, making traders cautious amid supply shortages. Last years sales were 4x higher than today’s current point!

Biofuel growth is slowing, with renewable diesel & SAF facing weak EPA targets, feedstock shortages & falling oil prices. With planned capacity at 23.7B gal (only +3% from 2024), agriculture may feel the impact as demand shifts to new feedstocks.

Trump may expand U.S. tariffs to autos, pharmaceuticals & semiconductors—starting at 25% with the potential to go higher. Mexico, Japan & Canada will be hit hardest. Experts warn of price hikes & shortages. Impact on Nvidia & Apple remains uncertain.

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is reportedly reviewing ag checkoff programs, which generate millions! $70M (beef), $94M (pork), & strong ROI for soybeans. Potential reforms could impact funding, producer votes & oversight

The EU is moving to block imports of crops treated with pesticides banned in Europe - hitting US exports like soybeans. This new policy aims to protect European farmers & fair competition, but Trump continues to threaten with retaliatory tariffs.

U.S. farmers are facing major uncertainty as Trump’s funding freezes halt billions in USDA payments, conservation programs & food aid. With 4,162 farm contracts worth $358M stalled, many are left stranded after investing thousands! Agricultures stability is at risk.

USDA pork cutouts are high for this time of year! With values above $100/cwt, this compares to 2014 levels when lean hog futures hit record highs, & on par with 2022 levels. Hog futures could soar if we can avoid a U.S. trade war!

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs vs foreign taxes, regulations and trade barriers put EU, China, India in firing line starting April 1. Risks of inflation, trade war, downturn, retaliation, etc? But India signed new 5-yr $500 bil trade deal. US getting some deals done?

Tariffs against Canada may hurt the canola industry more than China’s past actions. The U.S.—the largest canola market—generated $8.6B in 2023, importing 65% of products worth $7.44B in 2024. A 25% tariff would devastate farmers & exports, with few alternatives.

Trump's plan to shrink the Federal workforce is moving forward! A judge has cleared the buyout program, with 75k workers (3% of staff) opting in. Musk is leading a $1T budget cut effort, & agencies are preparing for layoffs of up to 70%. Big changes ahead!

Argentina backs President Milei’s push for a US trade deal (60% in favour) but fear Trump’s tariffs. Only 46% think local industries can compete, & 60% worry about economic fallout. Steel & aluminum tariffs could hit hard - shifting from its protectionist past!

U.S. CPI inflation rose more than expected in Jan – up 0.4% to a current 3% rate! This exceeds the estimations of 0.3% and 2.9%. Core CPI up 0.4%, sitting at 3.3%. Stocks down, 10-Year US yield & U.S. $ Index up. Investors are fearing higher interest rates for longer?

Trump’s 10% tariff on Canadian crude could raise US gasoline prices by 15¢/gallon, w/ 60% of US crude from Canada. Midwest refiners especially vulnerable, facing high costs and few alternatives; Canadian producers may redirect exports, passing the burden onto consumers.

Trump may exempt Australia from new 25% steel & aluminum tariffs, citing a $14B US trade surplus. Australia’s share of US steel imports? Less than 1%! AUKUS & defense ties were also discussed. US tariffs on China, Canada & Mexico still add to rising trade tensions.

Canada deemed most affected by Trump's tariffs on steel & aluminum - supplying 23% of US steel, followed by Brazil & Mexico, and 60% of US aluminum, alongside U.A.E. & China, with 90% of exports going to the US. China remains the top exporter of metals to the US.

Trump announces 25% tariffs on steel & aluminum, aiming to boost US industries with less competition & more investment. Major exporters like Canada, Mexico, Germany & Asian suppliers face losses. With $49B in US metal imports in 2024, this move may have consequences!

Minister Anand is hopeful Canada can ditch interprovincial trade barriers in 30 days! Fast progress across provinces & territories as threat of new tariffs pushes urgency for change. This move could boost the economy by $200B, lower prices by 15%, & raise productivity by 7%.

20K–40K U.S. federal workers have accepted Trump’s resignation offer in exchange for pay until Sept. 30. Unions are suing, calling the program unreliable. The CIA has joined, but eligibility is unclear. Those who refuse may face layoffs. Protests erupt nationwide.

U.S. import tariffs on fertilizers could hike prices, especially for potassium (K), where 90% is imported - 80% from Canada. A 25% tariff could add up to $100+/ton. N & P fertilizers may also rise as markets adjust. Farmers are bracing for higher costs!

Trump’s new tariffs end de minimis exemption, impacting e-commerce giants like Shein & Temu. CBP processed 1.36B+ shipments in 2024. Consumers may face $11.4B in new fees & tariffs, hitting low income households.

EU a 19 trillion economy pushing for talks with U.S. to prevent major disruptions from Trump’s tariffs. With $1.5T in trade and millions of jobs at stake, Sefcovic calls for "constructive engagement"; von der Leyen warns to protect interests. U.S. trade deficit with EU $350B.

India cuts import tariffs, signaling shift toward freer trade—possibly to ease U.S. tensions: Avg. tariff down11.65% to 10.66% | Lower duties on electronics, textiles & luxury bikes | PLI/PMP sectors keep higher 15-20% tariffs | AIDC used to shield domestic industries

More headline risk: Trump slaps tariffs on Canada, Mexico & China—25% Canada/Mexico, 10% China. Canada hits back with $155B in tariffs, Mexico vows countermeasures but delays for a month, China takes WTO action but willing to negotiate. EU warns of retaliation following threats. Experts fear economic turmoil ahead.

Trump halts new 25% tariff on Mexican imports for a month following Mexico’s President Sheinbaum agreeing to deploy 10,000 troops to curb fentanyl trafficking. This comes just days after tariffs hit Mexico, Canada & China. Discussions with U.S. officials are next.

Last week’s deep freeze may have wiped out 15% of Plains & Midwest wheat, per Commodity Weather Group. 65% of hard red winter wheat was exposed, but the full impact remains uncertain. We do not kill crops this time of the year maybe on Good Friday or Mothers Day Weekend?

Global central banks continue to cut interest rates, while U.S. Fed is on pause. Trump's trade tariffs on steroids could push US $ Index to new highs. DOGE cutting 4B per day in US government spending could lead to inflation rate of 2% by 2026 according to Elon Musk. 

Russia experienced grain export hit late 2024 due to 79 EU sanctioned vessels, including 4 linked to stolen Ukraine grain and Turkey banning wheat imports following strong harvest. Exports fell 2%, with 2024/25 exports expected to fall to 57M tons.

Mexico braces for possible U.S. tariffs! Sheinbaum doubts Trump will act February 1st but says Mexico is ready with 5-15% retaliatory tariffs on pork, cheese & whiskey-hitting Trump strongholds. Canada & Mexico can avoid tariffs by tightening borders; 10% import tariff push looms.

As expected, US Fed holds interest rates steady at 4.25-4.5% in Jan FOMC (political & economic uncertainty ahead?). BoC cut rates for 6th time as Canada Inflation nears 2% while Trump tariff threats loom. ECB set to cut rates Thursday as trade price in 0.25% EU cut.

KS ag & energy groups push for a $5M tax credit to expand E15 fuel at gas stations, boosting corn & sorghum farmers. Supporters say it’ll cut fuel costs & help production, but critics call it a subsidy. Discussions about possible biodiesel credit also in the works.

Trump's threat of tariffs on U.S. copper & aluminum imports will increase costs for consumers from domestic production shortfalls. COMEX copper rose 0.9% to $4.2705/lb. Costs will be passed down to consumers; markets brace for impacts on supply chains, trade flows, & inflation.

Trump pledges to take over Panama Canal due to Chinese influence – raising concerns of U.S. Ag exports. Panama’s control of the canal is deemed “non-negotiable”. Main Issues? Port concessions, trade impact, & canal tolls. The industry is watching closely.

Combined net managed money positions in all #wheat flavors (#SRW, #HRW, #HRS) shows large short position -37,648 in mid-October to -154,087 January 21st, 25 near the historic low of -195,107 from November 21st, 2023. How much longer will funds defend short positions & will futures trade to new lows? 

Columbia, the US's 3rd largest trading partner in SA ($33.8B trade annually), avoids trade war for now by accepting deportation flights. Proposed US measures: 25-50% tariffs, travel bans, visa revocations, financial sanctions & stricter border inspections.

Oil prices down 4% this week after Trump wants to have a meeting in Feb. with the Saudi's to lower the price of oil. Add a potential meeting with Putin to discuss the end to the war in Ukraine & oil prices and we have a near-term peak.

Argentina cuts export taxes effective Jan. 27th until July. Soymeal/oil 31% to 24.5% Soybeans 33% to 26% Corn 12% to 9.5% Wheat, barley, & sunflowers too. Goal: increase exports, competitiveness, & bring relief to drought stricken farmers. More competition = lower futures.

A golden bullish chart pattern for both live & feeder cattle futures with record strong cash & domestic demand providing the bullish momentum to the upside. Overbought conditions may suggest a correction-when will the funds pull the rug from under farmers?

New record highs! Live cattle futures above $200/cwt & feeder cattle futures at $277.05/cwt. Record cash a key catalyst as funds keep defending long positions while the market awaits Mexico's potential cattle import resumption. Strength is spilling over into hogs too!

Possible 89-year drought cycle may peak in 2025! Dry weather alone is not enough as better genetics have accounted for it but we need heat above 100 degrees. Did you know that there have been only 1 day in 25 years in the stats of Iowa above 100!

March corn hits a golden cross, signaling a bullish trend. Today’s action hints at overbought conditions and a bearish reversal, pointing to a short-term top and potential correction.

AAFC supply and demand projections will have Canadian farmers planting more wheat acres and coarse grains in 2025 at the expense of oilseeds. Wheat up 2% to 27.25 M acres; production at 35.03 MT, barely (+5%), oats (+6.5%), corn (+3%), canola -1M acres & soybeans (-7%). AAFC supply and demand projections will have Canadian farmers planting more wheat acres and coarse grains in 2025 at the expense of oilseeds.

Trump warns 25% tariffs on Mexico & Canada could start Feb. 1, calling Canada “a very bad abuser.” With $500B in trade at stake, the move aims to protect U.S. workers & families while boosting American interests. Canada will retaliate what about Mexico?

USDA's Tom Vilsack urges action to resume U.S. and Mexico cattle trade – suspended since Nov. 22 after screwworm detection. Inspections, quarantine, & port readiness are key. 250-300k cattle supply loss has supported higher live & feeder cattle prices. Record high cask also a key.

Bitcoin retested its highs intraday at $110,965 on speculation that Trump would announce a crypto order on day 1 in office. “Official Trump” meme coin hit a $10B market cap, fueling the belief that the first crypto President might be positive for the industry. 

IGC cuts 24/25 global corn prod. 6 MMT to 1.219B tons due to smaller US crop. Ending stocks down by 3M to 272M, now 20M below last year. Soybean production up 1M from previous 420M estimate - a better look for SA and Asian growers. Wheat steady at 769M. Will stocks tighten further?

CFTC corn longs hit 330K, nearing previous records of 380K-400K in 2021/2022 – with the possibility of breaking 2010’s record of 429K. Funds are running out of ammunition to keep pushing corn prices higher near-term!

Supply Chain update! Strike threat on East & Gulf coast averted, yet shippers continue to frontload products awaiting Trump tariffs. China has dominated – matching December export surge data. Vietnam, India & Mexico follow with uncertainty; consumer demand remains strong.

PPI increased 0.2% in December, less than the 0.4% increase in November and below the Dow Jones est. of 0.4%. Excluding food & energy, PPI was flat compared with the forecasted 0.3% rise. Excluding food, energy & trade services, the measure rose 0.1%.

Core CPI at 3.2%, down from the month before and slightly better than the 3.3% outlook. Shelter prices up 0.3% but were up 4.6% from a year ago. Stocks up sharply, U.S. $ Index & S 10-year yield down.

CME plans to launch new wheat futures & options in early-Q2, taking on Minneapolis market. CME wheat volumes up 10% LY, with Ag trade to new record high. They aim to enhance risk management & flexibility for users.

After a rough second half of 2024, lumber prices are back to increasing – 8.7% above where they were one year ago. Sawmill closures and housing shortages boost the demand, however threats of tariffs are adding to a potential tight market ahead.

Record U.S. red meat exports hit new highs in Nov! Pork exports 272 MT | $783M & beef exports 109 MT | $873M.Mexico helps drive pork demand, Columbia set new records & Korea boosts beef!

US job growth much stronger than anticipated in December - likely providing US Fed less incentive to cut upcoming interest rates. Job creation up to 256K, average hourly earnings up 0.3% & employment rate down to 4.1%.

Canada plans on retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods if Trump imposes 25% levies on Canadian products. Auto, energy & agriculture at significant risk. GDP could drop 3.8%, with layoffs expecting to reach 150,000 for Canadians.

Bunge secures Canada’s approval for $8B acquisition of Vitera Inc – creating a rival for Cargill, ADM, and Louis Dreyfus. Approvals conditions: selling 6 grain elevators & $520M investments in Canada.

Biden bans used cooking oil imports from qualifying for tax credits under new GREET model following cheap Chinese supplies flooding the market.

The Siberian Express is bringing another set of harsh conditions to the U.S., with blasts of Arctic air from Canada, Alaska, & Russia. While recent moisture helps ease drought in the Midwest & Plains, much of the relief will have to wait until spring.

.....with all of the moisture forecast for the month of January east of the Rockies. Weak global demand remains a major headwind!

Higher Oman & Dubai crude prices @ end-2024 due to tight supply from Iran & #Russia also helped. Could be short-lived.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-05/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-jan-6

Feb live cattle up ~$4/cwt this week while feeder cattle up $5.25. Will funds continue to defend long position? Heavy snowfall & bitter cold predicted in the Plains.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/commodities/2025/01/02/cattle-futures-rise-to-record-with-cold-blast-to-hit-beef-supply/

.....record South American production, demand concerns, "wildcard" China, & Trump trade war 2.0 remain headwinds for 2025.

.....sending prices to 2-yr high on a weekly continuation. US forecasts looking colder in January, especially for Center & East. Not surprising for this time of year.

Manitoba exported $15.5 bil of goods & services to the U.S. in 2023. Biggest item was medications with a close 2nd canola and oil at $1.3 bil in 2023. But it's in jeopardy with a threat of 25% Trump Tariffs in 2025? Frozen potatoes & veggies 4th @ $628 mil., Ag equipment $543 & $439 mil pork & live pigs.

Bitcoin is up 10% for the month, 54% since US elections & 151% for the year! 99.1% chance of 25 bpa Fed rate cut.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/16/crypto-market-today.html

Cattle futures to break above resistance. US supply tightness also braces for Trump Trade War 2.0 in 2025!

https://reuters.com/world/us/usda-approves-funds-fight-screwworm-may-resume-mexico-cattle-imports-this-year-2024-12-13/

Recent GDP saw growth below projected 1.5%, & uptick in unemployment. Loonie may hit low @ $0.705 short-term.

https://cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-dec-11-1.7407231

Sharp +200 mil bu increase in US 24/25 corn export & ethanol usage = ending stocks down to 1.738 bil! Wheat exports raised +25 mil. US soy balance-sheet unchanged. Argentina soy output raised +1 MMT to 52 MMT.

.....Trump announced plans to nominate Paul Atkins as chair of SEC. It pulled back today. Up 140+% in 2024 & 48% since election.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/05/bitcoin-tops-100000-as-monster-2024-rally-reaches-new-heights.html

All wheat was higher up 1.94% vs. Sept & higher vs. expected 34 MMT. Ontario soybean final yield at 51.8 & corn at 180 is too low vs. 2024 Great ON Yield Tour.

.....Crop Scout Cordonnier @ 170 (up +2). More advertised rain could result in record global 130+ MMT ending stocks. Trade War 2.0 looming, next stop $8 beans in 2025?

How will grain markets, & wheat specifically, react to Ukraine ceding territory to Russia to end war? https://bbc.com/news/articles/cn8g8ylvyldo…

.....momentum remains to the upside as the bulls won Thanksgiving. Strong soft commodity prices are largely Trump-risk-free, unlike the grains.

Sudden overhaul of 3-decade-old marketing system in No.2 global grower pushed traders/processors into expanded financing role.
https://reuters.com/markets/commodities/cocoa-firms-pour-money-into-ghana-bid-avert-more-losses-2024-11-27/

4th straight week of improvement & 3rd best in 10 yrs with the wettest Nov. (so far) on record for Southern Plains. This news is priced in but what happens in spring matters more!

New World Screw worm in Mexican cow & border likely closed for 30 days. US supplies could tighten, futures to rally +$5-10/cwt?

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-suspends-mexican-cattle-imports-after-new-world-screwworm-case-2024-11-25/

Soybean meal futures remain a weight on soybean futures now breaking below U.S. $300/MT not seen since 2020 with the next target $280 and than the 2016 low near $250! A bear market in meal is a bear market in soybeans. Great news for livestock producers.

.....a major headwind for CDN$ breaking below support $0.72. The 2020 low $0.68 is not out of the question on fears over geo-politics & a tariff war with the U.S.

.....suggests a run to $80,000 to $90,000 before we become overbought well above the 200-DMA.

.....approaching $100/cwt for this time of the year which is rare only 2011 & 2014 traded higher. The U.S. cash market also remains resilient with funds long over 74,000 contracts!

.....stating that it was taken due to CPI reaching the bank's 2% target. BoC said to expect further interest rate cuts, but pace & timing yet to be determined.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2024/10/23/banks-lower-prime-rates-to-595-after-bank-of-canada-move/

.....and increases the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in next weeks Bank of Canada meeting to 67% on October 23rd.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/canada-inflation-slips-16-lower-gas-prices-2024-10-15/

Fed projected that rate could fall another 0.50% by end of 2024, 1% in 2025, & 0.50% in 2026. CME FedWatch Tool currently showing higher chance of 0.50% cut again in Nov FOMC.

- to 98.7 vs 105.6 in Aug, biggest drop since Aug '21. Concerns due to jobs & inflation. Hope is that lower Fed rates will boost economic growth & profits.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/23/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

.....fund short covering over a dry weather outlook in Brazil, more stimulus from China & concerns over a dry fast finish in the U.S. in the past month.

https://www.voanews.com/a/china-unveils-broad-stimulus-measures-to-revive-sputtering-economy/7795961.html

.....lower slaughter & cheap feed allows more time on the feedlots. Futures breakout above support as uptrend continues; neutral-friendly Sept. USDA Cattle on Feed report.

USDA cut 24/25 US & global production. US yield cut to 807 pounds/acre, lowest since 2015. Spec funds' short-covering accelerates.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/commodities/2024/09/16/cotton-jumps-as-traders-cover-bearish-bets-on-storm-output-risk/

Futures see biggest weekly gains in 16 years. Record number of wildfires in center-south growing region. Brazil mills expected to halt cane processing as early as end-Oct.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/commodities/2024/09/20/sugars-biggest-jump-since-2008-is-a-fresh-threat-to-food-prices/

Fed's "dot plot" shows rate at 4.4% by end of 2024. FOMC policy statement said the committee members have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2% goal. FOMC policy statement said the committee members judge inflation goals and employment risks roughly in balance.

.....hitting Bank of Canada's target. In its 3rd consecutive cut since June, BoC cut rate to 4.25% in Sept. Next meeting on Oct 23- question is, will it be 25 bps or 50?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/inflation-bank-of-canada-target-1.7325365

US economy created fewer jobs vs expected in August, reflecting a slowing labor market. More reason for the Fed to cut interest rates later this month. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/06/jobs-report-august-2024.html

Corn 13% in drought vs 49% LY, soybeans 19% vs 13% LY. Warm & dry conditions favored for crop maturation & early harvesting.

.....to begin an anti-dumping investigation into canola imports from Canada in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese EVs. Futures recovered some but (gap-down) pressure continues.

Nvidia earnings beat Wall Street expectations! EPS $0.68 vs. $0.64 est, Revenue: $30.04B vs $28.7B est. Despite 122% revenue growth and data center revenue up 154%, shares dropped 4%. Investors are unfortunately disappointed with slowing growth, even as net income doubled. After 2 years of stellar performance, it's getting tougher to impress, and the massive beats of late '22 are harder to match.

this year’s French soft wheat harvest likely to be the lowest since 1980 shows lower test weights and protein compared to the past 5 years with only 26% meeting 76 kg/hectolitre standard. Protein content also reduced 74% above 11% (vs. 85% avg.).

Heat dome baking Midwest, with temps hitting 99°F+ & heat indexes soaring to 115°F. High humidity, partly from "cornsweat" moisture released by crops like corn worsens situation. The 3rd weather scare of the summer will be short-lived.

9,000 Canadian rail workers have been recalled as the lockout ends, averting further disruptions to the export-driven economy. Railways are restoring service, while Teamsters plan to appeal the lockout in federal court.

Oil prices are surging, with Brent topping $81 and WTI nearing $77. Geopolitical tensions, including Israel's strikes on Hezbollah, Russia's major drone and missile strike on Ukraine, and Libya's force majeure on oil facilities, fueled the spike.

OPEC+ & SaudiArabia will decide on whether to proceed with production increases from October amid economic uncertainty, falling crude oil futures, spreads, a weaker Chinese economy, & refinery margins. WTI bouncing from support, a break below opens up $60-handle...

Canada's TSX stock index retreated from record highs as TD Bank reported its first loss in 20+ years, and the railroad stoppage threatened the economy. It closed down 84.26 points (0.4%) after hitting a record high.

Wheat prices down to $5.20/bu, lowest since Sep 2020. Logistical issues & bigger Ukraine production add to woes. The Canadian rail strike has prompted early grain sales, as over 90% of Canada's grain is shipped by rail, with 25.3 MMT expected for 24/25.

Potential freight rail stoppage in Canada could disrupt the agri-supply chain, hurting wheat, fertilizer, and meat shipments. The strike could affect U.S. exports & imports, costing millions daily. Could impact US ethanol & potash into Canada.

Alberta crop conditions deteriorating due to drought & heat, but real damage likely limited to some regions? Current yield projections not way off vs 2023 final, although further cuts possible? Spring wheat & dry peas higher; barley, oats, & canola lower

commodities volatile this year, with record highs in orange juice & cocoa futures, fluctuating crudeoil prices, & rising gold prices. Base metals like iron ore have slipped. Soft commodities higher due to adverse weather.

Crudeoil prices dropped over $2/barrel on hopes that MiddleEast peace talks might ease supply risks, coupled with concerns over China's weak economy. WTI dropped 3% to $74.37.

Gold prices at new record highs, with trade projecting $3,000/ounce in 2024. Israel-Iran tensions & US elections add to the safe haven asset's surge. Spot steady near $2,508, while US futures hit new highs $2,540.8/ounce.

Mid-tour top observations ONyield24. corn is not wowing us like last year. Tip backs due to moisture stress. No weed or disease pressure. corn plant population a new record high. soybeans surprising us with lots of pods & big yields. Thank You Platinum Sponsors.

S&P 500 closed higher as strong economic data eased slowdown fears, setting up major indexes for their best weekly performance of the year. S&P & Nasdaq closed higher for the 7th straight session. Inflation moderation has calmed recession concerns.

5 new renewable diesel plants boosted U.S. production by 44% to 282,000 bpd, per EIA. The U.S. now has 22 plants, West Coast capacity more than doubling. The shift is accelerating, but it pressures biodiesel producers due to lower incentives.

Consumer spending exceeded expectations in July as inflation eased. Retailsales rose 1% vs. a 0.3% forecast. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.4%, beating the 0.1% estimate. June sales were revised to a 0.2% decline.

U.S. annual inflation slowed to 2.9% in Jul, the lowest since 21, with CPI up 0.2%. Higher housing costs could keep a Sep rate cut on the table. CME projections for a 0.5% cut in Sep down to 25.5%. The minutes might hint at a larger/emergency cut, though unlikely.

US PPI (Producer Price Index) rose 0.1% in July, below the 0.2% expected. Core PPI was flat. FedWatch now shows a 54.5% chance of a 0.50% cut (higher probability) & 45.5% chance for a 0.25% cut. PCE needs to be down.

USDA reported a record US 24/25 corn yield 183.1 bpa, above expectations & vs last month’s 181 bpa. soybean yield a record 53.2 bpa, above & last month’s 52 bpa. 24/25 US soy crop 4.589 bil bushels with ending stocks 560 mil bu = futures down sharply!

Ukraine rushing to export as much grain as possible this summer, despite Russian attacks on key ports, doubling July exports to 4.2MMT. More near-term supply for this oversupplied global market.

Global investors poured $98.58B into money market funds by Aug. 7, the biggest weekly influx since Apr, driven by U.S. slowdown fears and yen strength. Global equity funds saw $6.33B in outflows, while bond funds attracted inflows for the 33rd week.

Pre-report estimates for the next weeks WASDE where USDA excepted to lower harvested acres but offset with higher yields. Could be a bearish surprise and the forecast weather so far in August has been perfect grain filling weather.

The EPA is investigating renewable fuel producers over fraudulent biodiesel feedstocks using palm oil. New SAF plant in NE boosts biofuel demand long-term, but we keep kicking the can down the road. EPA’s probe since Jul 2023 also demand-friendly.

If North Carolina were a country, it’d rank as the 7th largest corn importer globally, mainly for livestock feed and ethanol. But with drought impacting, 80% of crop is in fair or worse condition, yields could drop driving up demand.

After crops were stricken by drought in the U.S. east, the flooding from tropical storm Debby is too little too late.

U.S. corn conditions fell 1% to 67% GE, while soybeans improved to 68% better than expected for a 1% drop. Winter wheat harvest is slightly ahead of avg; spring wheat is behind. Illinois leads in corn ratings with 81% GE. Corn yield trade talk of 185 - 190 bpa!

USDA reports U.S. corn & soybean good-to-excellent ratings fell last week, corn -2%, soys -1%, and wheat -4% but normal for this time of the year. All crops remain well above of the 5-year avg & remain in better condition than in 23 definitely no cause for alarm.

International markets plunged, causing U.S. markets to drop. The S&P fell 8.6%, NASDAQ dropped 5.4%, but this a healthy correction not a recession with U.S. Q3 GDP expected at +2.6%! Since Mar COVID lows markets are up 150%, buy the dip!

U.S. market slid after a weaker jobs report sparked recession fears. Dow fell 475 points (1.2%), S&P dropped 1.6%, Nasdaq declined 2.3%. With the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, highest since Oct 2021. CME now expecting a 58% chance of a 50 point rate cut by Sep.

Since 1980 the U.S. Fed has either hiked or lower U.S. interest rates during every single election year except 2012 when interest rates were already at 0!

The 10-year Treasury fell below 4% for the first time since Feb. Jobless claims surged to 249000. Continuing claims hit highest since Nov 2021. The ISM dropped to 46.8. This headline news lowered the chance of a Sept. rate cut from 87.7% to 74.5%.

U.S. crop ratings actually improved in July, pointing to a stress-free corn pollination period, with a cool/wet July and timely rains it suggest a USDA corn yield estimate in the August crop report that is higher than 181 bpa.

The Fed held rates in todays July meeting but hinted at future cuts. Dow hits a record high above 41,000, NASDAQ +2.43%, US $ -$0.309, and US 10 Year Yield -0.14%. CME Fed Watch surges from 87.7% to 91.7% for a Sep rate cut.

Prices hit new lows in corn, with soybeans following the trend. Traders suggest soybeans have bottomed out, but it could still drop further. Prices haven't yet reached 20/21 lows from the U.S.-China trade war. With a possible record crop expected.

Crude oil prices hit June lows due to concerns about China's demand and a potential Middle East ceasefire. Brent fell to $79.01/b and WTI to $75.15/b. Poor Chinese economic data continues to impact prices. OPEC to meet Thurs, but no changes in output are expected.

Freezing temps in Argentina worsened 24/25 wheat crop already hurt by severe drought. Rosario earlier reduced wheat planting area by 2.9% to 6.7 mil Hc due to drought. With Arg being such a small player the markets dont care, with wheat now drifting to new lows.

Shares of crypto firms rose after Trump's promise of friendlier regulation. Analysts see a Trump win as positive for crypto, Trump pledged national bitcoin stockpile and aims to mine all remaining bitcoin in the U.S. Bitcoin +18.6% in Jul!

Investors face more big tech earnings this week, poor results could trigger more selloffs, like Wed's decline in S&P & Nasdaq. Alphabet’s positive revenue led to a 5% drop due to fears of AI spending. With the Magnificent 7 down $2 tril market cap in Jul

WTI crude oil is down 1.65% the 3rd weekly decline as Chinese demand raises concerns. The end of 2024 summer driving season and bigger production increases by OPEC+ members this fall and winter will continue to weigh on prices.

PCE index matched Dow analysts' expectations at ~2.5% YoY, down 0.1% MoM. Despite the decline, it's not fast enough. CME traders lowered Sep cut expectations to 87.7% from 93.3%. US yield & US $ Index fall with next FOMC meeting Jul 31st. Investors cheering news.

Real GDP grew at a 2.8% annualized rate from April to June, surpassing economists' 2.1% expectation and following a 1.4% increase in Q1. The consumer may not be as tapped out as we think as alot of the growth was driven by strong consumer spending.

Its the 2nd day of the wheat tour and U.S. spring wheat in NW and N-central ND is set for record yields. Avg estimates at 53.7 bu/ac, up from 45.7 YOY and the 5-year avg of 40.02. There are record winter & spring wheat crops coming with harvest 4-6 weeks away.

Bad news for global demand, Chinese officials report a bumper wheat crop that will push the grain harvest to its largest level in 9 years. With wheat still at lows not seen since 23 and well below the 5 year avg. They expect 23 mil Ha of wheat with yields up 2.6%.

The 1st day of the U.S. Quality Council Wheat Tour in ND projects record yields for spring wheat in south & east ND. With an avg hard red spring wheat yield of 52.5 bu per acre up from 48.1 bu in 23 and more than 5-year avg of 42.2 bu.

U.S. corn & soybean conditions remain above 5 year avg with IL. IN and IA showing increase from last week, soil moisture still higher YOY & the long-term avg with no threat to pollination. If conditions do not start falling the gains in futures will come to an end!

Despite a strong U.S. economy, many Americans feel otherwise. A survey found 60% believe U.S. is in a recession citing high costs & financial struggle. Is the consumer tapping out because of affordability? The economic data suggest otherwise.

Speculators set a new record for net short positions in soy with strong U.S. crops and an oversupply of beans in China which have driven futures prices near 4-year lows. Canola net short also grows but markets have since been spooked by a North American weather scare.

America is expanding canola, companies are investing in canola for biofuel with TN and KY acres are to grow by 7X! Scoular Co is converting a facility to process canola. The biofuel market in North America is expected to reach $20bil by 25.

China's soybean surplus is growing due to record purchases & low feed demand, pushing down prices for soyoil & soymeal. This oversupply may reduce imports during the U.S. peak marketing season, pressuring prices already near 4 year lows.

Swollen shoot has infected 81% of a major cocoa region in Ghana, world's second-largest grower. This comes after dry weather in ivory coast sent cocoa prices surging to record highs! Two countries produce 60% of the worlds cocoa production and tree crops take time to replenish.

China the worlds largest producer for urea, dropped its exports 86.2% in the first half of 2024 due to Beijing's efforts to cool domestic prices, risking a global supply squeeze threatening prices. Beijing limited 24 exports to 944000 MT

A 60% tariff on all Chinese exports to the U.S. could halve China’s annual growth rate, reducing GDP by 2.5 percentage points if implemented by a Trump administration. The tariffs could impact exports, consumption, and investment.

Global chip stocks dipping as ASML, Nvidia, and TSMC hit by reports of tighter U.S. chip export restrictions by Biden administration, Trumps comments. But we have been down this road before not the first time buy the dip on fear selling.

Derecho brought 30 tornado warnings across Midwest, with 86mph winds causing tree damage, flooded roads. Agricultural impact seems minimal with little crop damage and power recovery in progress, storms will likely be a non starter for ag as rain makes grain.

Traders now see a 100% chance of a Fed rate cut by Sep, with 91.6% odds for a 0.25% reduction. This follows Jun CPI data showing a 0.1% drop, bringing inflation to 3%, lowest in 3 years. With the Dow up 675 points to a new record high!

Funds expanded their record short positions this week in corn & soybeans according to the latest CFTC report. Despite semi-friendly USDA July crop report on corn, market sentiment remains negative, indicating potential price declines ahead.

China’s economy grew by 4.7% in Q2, the slowest in five quarters, missing the 5.1% forecast. Retail sales and new home prices fell, showing weak consumer confidence. Policymakers have yet to boost domestic demand in a protracted property downturn.

Times are getting tough farmers, and although the USDA did not adjust corn & soybean yields in today’s USDA WASDE report they did surprise with better usage and lower ending stocks to provide a futures bounce to stop the bleeding for now.

U.S. Treasury yields rose on a hotter PPI reading but is set for a weekly decline after a surprise drop in the June CPI. Despite the hotter than expected headline PPI, chances of an interest rate cut went up to 88% from 86% yesterday for Sept.

This week’s drought monitor shows minor drought reductions in major corn and soybean growing regions. Rain from Hurricane Beryl remnants helped the Midwest's east, while the previously oversaturated west dried out, improving overall crop growth conditions.

with less signs of LaNina developing, the Australian meteorological bureau has suggested that we may not see its development until as late as next year with only a 50% chance of it occuring later this year! The 2024 summer weather scare is over!

The S&P 500 hit a new record above 5,600, rising 0.6%, driven by semiconductor stocks. The Nasdaq also hit an all-time high, up 0.9%. SPX posting 36 new 52-week highs while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 26 new highs so far in 2024.

Looks like another "kick the can down the road" for the USDA July crop report due out Friday June 12th. Timely July rains so far with hurricane Beryl hitting some of he driest U.S. ECB growing regions means trend to above avg trendline yields. More pain ahead!

Despite 24 being as wet as 19, U.S. corn acres increased? In 2019, both acres/yields fell by 3.1 in corn & 8.5 million in soybeans. Yields fell 8 bpa in corn & 2.1 in soybeans by the final crop report in January. Something doesn't add up! What makes 24 so different?

As hurricane Beryl gets downgraded to tropical storm, the areas that were too wet in USMidwest will dry out and the areas that were too dry will be hit with residual rains. Great news for growers but not for the markets. Dec. corn needs to hold $4.0425/bu!

CFTC data showed a significant fund short in corn, with Managed Money traders selling 58,872 corn contracts for the week ended July 2. This includes both liquidated longs & new shorts. In real time, Funds could now be net short over 365,000 delta-adjusted contracts.

Bond yields fell as US unemployment rose unexpectedly to 4.1%, highest since Oct '21, & vs expected 4%. 10-yr Treasury off -0.065 to 4.28%. Fed wants lower inflation but worsening labor market raised bets on a -0.25% interest rate cut in Sept to 75% vs 64% last week

In June, the UN food price index held steady at 120.6 points, unchanged from May. Increases in veg oil, sugar, & dairy were offset by lower cereal prices. The index remains 2.5% lower than last year & 24.8% below its peak in 2022, after record highs were set

South America bracing for LaNina. In transition phase now. Memories of recent rare three-peat 2020-23 La Nina (followed by ElNino) warn of possible historic drought that could impact the upcoming crop.

Southern Russia & eastern Ukraine getting prolonged extreme heat in major growing regions, with temps 100+. SovEcon recently raised Russian 24/25 wheat crop +3.4 MMT to 84.1 MMT due to high yields in the south. Other Black Sea region crops at risk?

Eastern midwest drying out causing expansion of moderate drought, while places like Minnesota & the Dakotas with their record levels of rain continue to be waterlogged & more rain expected.

corn & soybean prices hit ~4-year lows on heavy supply outlook. Stocks burdensome- USDA June 1 corn stocks @ 4-year high of 4.99 bil bu with 61% held on farms (most since '99). Soy stocks @ 970 mil bu, up +22% Y/Y, also saw 48% on farms (most since '06).

Mexico's new government plans to abandon AMLO's aim to cut yellow corn imports, great news for U.S. farmers as mexico is one of the largest markets for U.S. corn at 40+%! AMLO's GM corn restriction originally sparked a U.S. trade dispute.

After a very wet plant 24 we lost 10% of the Ontario corn acres to soybeans & SW Ontario looks the worst (biggest corn counties look the worst) as we also lost 5% of the soybeans acres so best guess 2 million corn, 3.135 million soybeans. he light ground will be the best this year while the heavy clay the worst! Haldimand Niagara and Renfrew counties look the best!

China expected to import record volumes of soybeans in Jul, driven by lower prices and concerns over potential trade tensions with U.S. if Trump returns, (old tariffs were never removed?) possibly adding some much needed pressure on soys.

USDA June 1 Hogs & Pigs report was neutral. With hog futures already down 20.5% all of news has already been priced in so look for the bleeding to stop & a corrective bounce near-term form oversold conditions. But cash and cut-outs need to show some life soon!

StatsCan's Jun 24 acreage report shows Canadian farmers planting more soybeans, lentils, peas, oats, but less acres wheat, canola, corn, & barley vs. last year. Total whaet acres were lower vs. expectations while canola was higher. News was already priced into futures. The March 24 Ontario survey was spot on forecasting 2.21 corn, 3.137 soybeans & 1.033 wheat vs. Stats Canada at 2.2, 3.1 & 1.09 respectively.

In the June 1 USDA hogs & pigs quarterly forecast, continued increases in the number of pigs/litter may continue to offset herd reductions but any negative news is already priced into oversold hog futures.

2024 June StatsCanada Principal Acreage Pre-report est. coming in high after a wet/delayed 24plant & reports of switching to oats barley. We could get a bullish surprise with canola acres below 21.2 & wheat acres above 27 with rally in prices in spring.

Congestion at Singapore's container port has reached its worst level since COVID-19 due to vessel re-routing to avoid the Red Sea. This disruption has caused bottlenecks in Asian and European ports. Global port congestion is at an 18-month high, with 60% of ships waiting in Asia. Over 2.4 million TEUs were anchored as of mid-June.

In northwestern Iowa, a major U.S. corn-producing region, flooding has caused river levels to surpass records set in 1993. By July 9th of that year corn futures surged 15.5%! Will 2024 repeat and rhyme?

Dome of Death has vanished 1st week of July staying in the SE so no threat to the crops in Midwest means no spooking of the funds & more pressure on prices. One last chance to rally grains comes from either this Fridays USDA reports or July 11th crop report.

New York cocoa futures on ICE fell over 10% to a month lows as speculators liquidated long positions, with good weather in Ivory Coast and Ghana raising production prospects. Demand weighs on prices, as Nestle predicts consumers will cut back on But this tree crop demand remains inelastic. Double top could be bearish long-term if we break support at $7,000.

U.S. N/C Plains in SE SD, SW MN & NW IA facing continued flooding from this weekend with more rain forecast. Some regions getting 15 to 18 inches! Billions bushels & thousands acres lost but futures as funds think "rain makes grain."