Below are the latest news updates from Risk Management

Oats led grains as it resumed climb to $7/bu!

Friday, October 15, 2021

Late week grain market recovery saw gains across the board (corn, soys, wheat, canola, cotton) as demand took over.


Brazil reported another Classical Swine Fever (CSF) outbreak in Marco, Ceará state

Thursday, October 14, 2021

 Ministry of Ag notified World Organization for Animal Health, which released an official bulletin.


Lumber prices are making a recovery following from their corrective action earlier in the year

Wednesday, October 13, 2021

Up +64% since the August low as demand takes over again. Expect strength to continue into 2022?


Stock market recovery & weaker US$ bode well for beef demand & cattle markets

Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Beef cutouts yet to make a full recovery


Nov WTI crude oil futures broke above $80 today & nearby is trading at its highest since Nov 2014

Friday, October 8, 2021

Prices up 60+% for 2021 as demand rebounds while supply remains tight, with more legs to go.


Malaysian Palm Oil futures continue journey thru uncharted highs above 5,000. Higher crude oil, tightening Sept stocks,.....

Thursday, October 7, 2021

.....slow production & strong demand support. China major buyer.


If 21/22 Canadian canola output falls below 12.8 MMT, prices will climb to ration further demand and buy acres in 2022?

Wednesday, October 6, 2021

Canada’s smallest harvest this in 13 years due to severe drought!
 record still @ $1,045.30/MT set by May 2021 futures near its expiry, on May 7, 2021.


USDA announced a candidate vaccine, ASFV-G-DI177l which efficiently protects against ASF!

Tuesday, October 5, 2021

It has been shown to prevent & effectively protect both European & Asia bred swine against the virus. USDA’s ARS reports that it is effective in all swine by 4th week after vaccination.


As suspected, the month of August in Ontario & the finish to a record corn crop 191.50 was dry, especially in Eastern Ontario!

Tuesday, October 5, 2021

Learn more @ - Platinum sponsor 2021 Great ON Yield Tour


Oat Futures Trade to New all time Record Highs!

Monday, October 4, 2021

Nearby oat futures traded to an new all-time record high breaking the old high set in 2013 at $6.00/bu.


Continued strong pork cutout values support futures- $116/cwt yesterday is higher Y/Y by $20 & higher vs 5-yr avg by +$36/cwt!

Friday, October 1, 2021

Bacon has skyrocketed! US bacon now $7.1/pound vs $5.56 a year ago, +27.7%! A good time to stock up on bacon? Its always a good time!


2021 USDA September 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report bearish corn and soybeans vs. expectations friendly/bullish wheat

Thursday, September 30, 2021

U.S. corn Sept. 2021 stocks down -36% Y/Y; 20/21 soybeans down -51%, and all U.S. wheat down -34%.


Cotton futures soar to highest in decade, breaking above $1/pound!

Wednesday, September 29, 2021

Adverse weather & shipping snags threaten supplies!


Bullish USDA Sept. 2021 quarterly Hogs & Pigs report!

Friday, September 24, 2021

Lower than expected inventory! Futures supported near-term! Smaller pig crop during fall? Tight supplies likely continue into 2022...

USDA Sept. 1 2021, Hogs & Pigs Report (% vs. Year Ago)









































HOGS 50-119 LBS




HOGS 120-179 LBS








Source: USDA, Reuters


2021 Sept. USDA Cattle on Feed numbers slightly higher than expected

Friday, September 24, 2021

Sept. 1 2021 USDA Cattle on Feed Report Estimates

(% of previous year)

USDA Sept. 1, 2021

Sept. 1, 2021 Pre-Report Estimates

USDA Aug. 1, 2021

Cattle on Feed












Source: USDA,


September 2021 USDA Cold Storage report showed significantly lower meat supply in cold storage Y/Y

Thursday, September 23, 2021


(in Million Pounds)

USDA- Aug. 31, 2021

Last Month

Last Year

















Source: USDA


Oats knows? Dec futures traded limit up near $5.60/bu! Will corn follow higher?

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

For this year, Stats Canada estimates the smallest Canadian oat crop production since 2010 & tightest supplies since 1991/92. Canadian stocks are expected to be record low in 2021/22? US 2021/22 oats stocks are the lowest since 2013/14.


World Organization for Animal Health says Haiti has 1st outbreak of ASF in 37 years!

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

This is the 2nd detection in Americas this year, following from the 1st in the Dominican Republic. Both countries share the same island in the Caribbean.


Grain market fundamentals overshadowed by macro market fears over China's real estate sector crisis

Monday, September 20, 2021

Markets are nervous over the potential failure of China's Evergrande Group, a property developer with over $300 billion in debt, who has defaulted on a debt payment creating fears of contagion in the broader property sector unless the Chinese government steps in. Global financial and commodity markets sold off as traders exit riskier investments to get to the sidelines. Reading into its most recent financial results, Evergrande’s total debt burden is the biggest for any publicly traded real-estate management or development company in the world.


USDA 2021 September Crop Report Worse than Expected but all priced in?

Friday, September 10, 2021


(in Bil Bu)








Yield (bpa)





Harvested Acres (Mil/Acres)





Production (bbu)





Ending Stocks (bbu





Global Ending Stocks (MMT)






Yield (bpa)





Harvested Acres (Mil/Acres)





Production (bbu)





Ending Stocks (bbu





Global Ending Stocks (MMT)






Ending Stocks (bbu





Global Ending Stocks (MMT)





Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters


FINAL YIELDS- 2021 6th Great ON Yield Tour @ 191.5 bpa corn 51.7 bpa soybeans

Thursday, September 2, 2021

It’s a new ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH for the 2021 Ontario corn yield at 191.50 bu/acre, but soybeans comes up short at 51.7 bpa. This compares the the 2018 previous high by Agricorp at 183 & 53 respectively. The 10-year average sits at 174 & 46. #TwitterlessGregStewart says “There’s no stopping a record corn crop.” #ONYield21 @Ontag @FarmsNews Thank you all hosts, sponsors, scouts and farmers!


Trade Expectations for Stats Canada 2021 Production report on Aug 30th- canola 14.1 MMT vs 19.89 in previous est. All wheat 22.6 MMT vs 31.43 last....

Wednesday, August 25, 2021

Spring wheat 15.9 MMT; Durum 4.1 MMT vs 5.84 last. oats 3 MMT vs 3.794 last. barley 7.4 MMT vs 10.891 last.
The data will be released at 7:30 am CT/8:30 am EDT Monday, Aug 30th.


2021 USDA August Crop Report A Bullish Surprise!

Thursday, August 12, 2021

2021 USDA AUGUST WASDE 20/21 & 21/22 U.S. CROP ESTIMATES (Bil Bu)

Corn 21/22 Yield (bpa) 174.6 177.6 179.5
21/22 Production 14.75 15.0 15.165
21/22 Ending Stocks 1.242 1.30 1.432
20/21 Ending Stocks 1.117 1.10 1.082
Soybeans 21/22 Yield (bpa) 50.0 50.4 50.8
21/22 Production 4.339 4.375 4.405
21/22 Ending Stocks 0.155 0.160 0.155
20/21 Ending Stocks 0.160 0.148 0.135
Wheat 21/22 Ending Stocks 0.627 0.645 0.665

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters


IHS Markit group projected 2021 US corn production at 14.91 billion bushels and 2021 soybean production at 4.464 billion bushels;.....

Saturday, August 7, 2021

.....yields for corn are expected at 176.5 bpa, while soy yields are expected at 51.5 bpa. Yesterday, Linn & Associates estimated 2021 U.S. corn production at 14.794 billion bushels, on a yield of 176.16 bpa, & soybean production at 4.284 billion bushels, on a yield of 49.5 bpa.


The Dominican Republic is restricting pig shipments and mobilizing the military to contain the spread of ASF.....

Friday, July 30, 2021

..... US & Mexico tightened border checks to avoid infections. U.S. testing of 389 samples from Dominican hogs raised on farms and in backyards indicate the contagious disease is in "a small population of backyard pigs from Sánchez Ramírez and Montecristi provinces".


USDA corn, soybeans & spring wheat (at 9% G-E) ratings drop again, lower-than-expected. Near-term, extreme heat & wind will further damage.....

Tuesday, July 27, 2021

.....already-stressed crops in dry areas of NW Corn Belt! Some weekend rain expected but with limited coverage?


Oats knows? Oats futures are a star performer among grains. Higher oat futures (+26.7% in July) could be a sign of higher corn futures down the road?

Friday, July 23, 2021

As oats are harvested earlier than most (mid-August), it will give markets a good idea on yield loss from hot & dry weather?


Flooding in China impacting 91,000 sq miles of important Ag region in Yellow River Basin

Thursday, July 22, 2021

Rain extremes since Friday reached 40 - 45+ inches! Significant crop losses possible as fertile plain may not drain very quickly.


US administration delays annual US biofuel blending mandate due to political concerns

Wednesday, July 21, 2021

White House has mostly stayed out of discussions but now wants to take control of matter? Mandate is more than a year behind!


Despite China's efforts to control ASF in pigs, & reporting that hog supply is back to pre-ASF levels, 11 outbreaks were officially reported in 2021 &

Tuesday, July 20, 2021 variants of virus also present. China's pork imports to remain buoyant in 2021?


US spring wheat in dire state- USDA conditions drop again wk/wk -5 points to 11% G-E! Conditions as of late-May were only at 43% G-E but.....

Monday, July 19, 2021

.....dropped -32 points in June & July so far. There is no respite as near-term weather forecast is 'hot & dry'!


U.S. Weekly Ag Exports Were Nothing Special

Thursday, July 15, 2021

USDA weekly Ag export sales were again not expected to be very impressive, and they were not with sales other than wheat came in on the lower end or missing their range expectations.


USDA Crop Progress 11 July 2021- Corn conditions improved+1% to 65% G-E but soybeans & spring wheat remain unchanged at 59% and 16%, respectively.....

Tuesday, July 13, 2021

Winter wheat harvest is 59% complete, which is a bit behind average. With harvest as advanced as it is, there will be no more condition reports for Winter wheat. Corn and soy development is similar to a year ago.


Friendly 2021 July USDA WASDE Crop Report- Bullish Wheat!

Monday, July 12, 2021

The market reacted positively to the report which didn’t do any damage to crop expectations & closed the day with new crop corn up +16 cents, new crop soybeans up +21 cents (soy meal & oil also strong), Sept. Chicago SRW wheat up +25 cents, KC HRW wheat +21 cents, MN Spring wheat +43 cents (breaking above resistance at $8.50/bu), & canola started the day limit up for the 2nd consecutive day at expanded limit of $45/MT & stayed there.


Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his U.S. corn yield estimate by -2 bpa to 175.5 bpa this week. He also lowered his U.S. soybean yield..

Wednesday, July 7, 2021

.....projection to 50 bpa. He lowered his Brazilian corn crop estimate another 2 MMT to 88 MMT and the bias is lower going forward.


Frosts caused crop failure in Brazil & output estimates are slashed. AgRural cut 2nd corn production forecast in Center South to 54.6 MMT, down.....

Tuesday, July 6, 2021

.....from 60 MMT estimated in May. They also said harvesting is lagging last year's pace as Brazilian 2nd corn was planted later than in the previous season. Brazil corn production down another 5 mmt from their May estimate to 85.3 mmt full year.


BULLISH USDA June Acreage & Grain Stocks data sent new crop Dec corn futures limit up to $5.885/bu today (expanded $0.60 limit tomorrow).....

Wednesday, June 30, 2021

Nov soybeans futures had a $12, $13 & $14 handle today which is a first (up +$0.865/bu on the day).


Stats Canada's June Acreage showed canola acreage up 1mil vs. March but closer to trade expectations. All wheat acreage slightly higher but Durum,....

Tuesday, June 29, 2021

.....barley, soybeans, corn, oats all lower vs March! Western Prairie crops are cooking in 50C heat with no rain in 2-week forecast?


USDA US crop conditions deteriorated further. Spring wheat on its last lifeline! corn & winter wheat G-E dropped a point lower. Soys unchanged for now

Monday, June 28, 2021

This was despite last week seeing some precip in some parts. West/North West remains dry, East wet!


Will Stats Canada surprise next Tuesday?

Friday, June 25, 2021

We are taking the under on canola and wheat acres and the over on barley and oats based on farmer reports from across the Western Canadian Prairies.


US Supreme Court in favour of oil refineries in biofuel waiver dispute. This is a setback for ethanol & not what the industry expected...

Friday, June 25, 2021


Heat Dome forecasted for US PNW, BC & Alberta. 113+F heat possible? Conditions could persist until end of next week (& longer?) &.....

Thursday, June 24, 2021

.....expand east to Idaho & Montana, & south into California. Likely first of many to come this summer with enduring drought?


North Dakota has planted the 4th most soybean acres in 2021 and history shows when crop ratings are @ 60% G-E (+/-3%) soybean yields are sub-trendline

Tuesday, June 22, 2021

The #1 producer Iowa lost the most in corn ratings this week.


Corn & Soybeans recover some after last week's funds sell-off. Despite less threatening weather, hot & dry continues to be the summer theme.....

Monday, June 21, 2021 evidenced by quickly deteriorating USDA crop conditions. #1 producer IA, #3 MN & #4 NE crop conditions = an under on 179.5 corn yield.


USDA Crop Progress Report worse than expected for corn and spring wheat crop conditions vs. expectations

Monday, June 21, 2021

This report should be friendly grain futures short-term.


US Drought Monitor shows significant expansion in corn, soybeans & wheat areas vs early 2021, cattle & cotton regions improved. Drought.....

Friday, June 18, 2021

.....this year is unlikely to get resolved by one or two rain events. We revert to hot & dry after upcoming cool & (slightly) wet?


Commodity sell-off day triggered by China's plans to release reserves of key metals (copper, aluminum, etc) & its crackdown against commodity.....

Thursday, June 17, 2021

.....& hoarders. Soaring US$ didn't help either. More volatility on the way?


Where soyoil futures go so does soybean futures on rumors of a possible policy shift by the Biden administration surrounding renewable fuel blending..

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

.....requirements, Its spooking the veg oil markets after hitting record highs last week!


USDA- Biden plans $700 mil aid for biofuel producers in new round of COVID-19 relief

Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Relief also expected for timber haulers, dairy farmers & food suppliers. Rumors EPA expected on Thursday to announce lower RVOs @ 14 – 14.50 bil vs the promised 15 bil?


USDA 2021 corn & soybeans crop conditions wk/wk drop paralleled by 2012. '21 corn fell -8% G-E to 68% since the 1st condition report.....

Monday, June 14, 2021

.....(2012 fell -9%). '21 soys fell -5% G-E wk/wk to 62% (2012 fell -4%). Some weather respite in the short-term, but main theme is still hot & dry.


Drought in May in parts of Canadian Prairies (central Alberta & east along Alberta-Saskatchewan border) improved with some precip,.....

Thursday, June 10, 2021

.....while in other areas (Manitoba, US-Manitoba border, US-Saskatchewan border) it worsened (as in ON/QC too).


Rain in ND hit mostly pastureland & mid-day weather models reduced moisture in N Plains tomorrow thru Saturday, but increased the amounts for.....

Wednesday, June 9, 2021

.....Canadian Prairies. 7–10-day forecast remains hot & dry! 1-2 rain events will not fix serious N Plains drought.


US federal judge could decide this Wednesday if pork production line speeds will slow down or stay same? Judge ruled in April that USDA broke the law

Tuesday, June 8, 2021

.....with faster line speeds but processors requested stay as plants are running at faster speeds for decades.


Hog futures up +30% in past 90 days! It is the 2nd highest price level in past 50 years. Record high was in summer of 2014 when PED outbreak hit.....

Monday, June 7, 2021

.....the market. Hog prices are more than triple where they were in 2020 when COVID-19 forced plants to drastically reduce slaughter rates.


USDA pork cutouts are less than $5 away from 2014 PEDv highs of $137.56! Summer grilling demand roars on, & cyberattack temporarily jeopardized.....

Friday, June 4, 2021 The soaring cutout will keep the path of least resistance in cash and futures higher.


Brazil's drought is not just cutting down crops but its worst water crisis could curtail river transportation of commodities & further tighten supply

Thursday, June 3, 2021 they aim to save water & direct it to power generation.


USDA's 1st 2021 corn ratings off to 4th highest start ever @ 76% G-E. In 2012, the corresponding week's ratings were 72%, but eventually that fell....

Wednesday, June 2, 2021 22% as of 10 Sept 2012. We are yet to face the dog days of summer & NOAA has started forecasting 'hot & dry'.


World's largest meat packer (Brazil's) JBS SA's operations in US, Canada & Australia were shut down on Monday by an organised cyber attack.....

Tuesday, June 1, 2021

.....on its information systems. Others beware, more shut downs could squeeze supply?


2021 US drought in North & West Midwest is yet to be factored into corn & soybeans yields? Some regions there have had the driest stretch ever with...

Friday, May 28, 2021

.....2/3 of western ND in extreme drought (worse than 1930s?)! Region needs 8-9 inches of moisture just to catch up.


Old crop July corn futures closed limit up today, new crop Dec not far off as grains put in a bottom after May meltdown, on new buying- .....

Thursday, May 27, 2021

.....technicals, short covering & export demand. $6.70 is major resistance & corn traded only 10 days above it in past 8 years!


Demand is king! USDA pork cutout values broke above last year's COVID-19 highs this week. Only 2014 PEDv record highs trump current levels!

Tuesday, May 25, 2021

.....As summer grilling picks up steam, there just isn't enough slack and demand is not taking it easy, chasing product.


Ontario is Dry as we near the completion of the 2021 Planting Season!

Friday, May 21, 2021

All farmers are singing the same song including #Ontario producers. % of normal precip is behind and soil moisture needs to catch up. Maybe its time for a rain dance. The 89 Year Drought Cycle maybe here sooner than we thought?


Brazil's 20/21 corn crop est continues to be lowered- Crop scout Cordonnier lowest yet @ 85 MMT, USDA @ 102 mmt (109 in April), .....

Thursday, May 20, 2021

..... AgroConsult @ 91.1. If the Argentina crop is also lowered -5 MMT, the total could be off Y/Y by -26 MMT!


Line 5 brings 540K bpd of crude oil from western Canada to Ontario, Quebec, Ohio, Michigan & Indiana. Fuel tightness looming there?

Tuesday, May 11, 2021

Canada's Enbridge & US state of Michigan in talks, but they are running out of time as Line 5 shutdown deadline is May 12!


South American 20/21 corn output in jeopardy as world's No.2 (Brazil) & No.3 (Argentina) suppliers face reduced crops? BAGE est @ 46 MMT.....

Monday, May 10, 2021

.....(USDA @ 47). AgRural projects Brazil could drop below 100 to 95.5 MMT (USDA @ 109)? Combined would be tightest in 4 years, or worse?


Red hot veg oil demand continues as palm oil futures soared & gapped higher with new all-time highs! For its part, nearby canola futures extended.....

Friday, May 7, 2021

.....into all-time highs as drought in Canadian Prairies remains firmly entrenched as planting gathers steam


Canola rallies into new highs & expiring May futures broke above $1,000, with July close behind at $963! New crop Nov at $761. Drought still.....

Thursday, May 6, 2021

.....a major concern for central Sask, east-central Alberta, & central & southern Manitoba. No rain in immediate forecast


As feed grain prices soar along with strong animal feed demand, insect feed is gaining share in ag, as firms attempt to curb their carbon footprint

Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Cargill & InnovaFeed are working towards feeding 20 mil piglets with insect oil by 2026


July canola futures rose to a contract high of $894 today, with the expiring May contract staying in the unheard-of $900s! New crop Nov futures also..

Tuesday, May 4, 2021 contract high $730.5 as tight market fundamentals signal a quite "heady" summer for veg oil/oilseed prices?


2 of 5 US adults fully vaccinated as daily avg of new COVID-19 cases fall below 50,000! 70-85% of country needs to be immune to virus,.....

Monday, May 3, 2021

.....thru vaccine or prev infection to control spread. Experts warn US vaccine supply will surpass demand?


April ended with a BANG for corn, soybeans, wheat, #anola, #oats, cotton. With daily CME trading limits raised on May 3rd & .....

Friday, April 30, 2021

.....weekend Brazilian weather forecast, we could have another wild week coming up?


US Wheat Associates- Dry bulk freights are rising on strong global demand as the world tries to recover from COVID-19. China leads commodities demand

Thursday, April 29, 2021

.....& US President Biden's infrastructure plans also a catalyst. Higher freight demand point to optimistic 2021 outlook


Since the low in April March last year, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&P GSCI) rallied 110+%, which is very comparable to the 07/08 advance.....

Wednesday, April 28, 2021


2021 Stats Canada acreage report- not enough acres to fix tight new crop canola balance-sheet. Also surprised with less wheat acres vs expectations

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Pending drought & soil moisture deficits an issue! If it does not rain enough soon, we could lose more acres?


Nearby corn futures traded limit-up! July broke above $6.5/bu, up more than $1 since late March! Midwest cropping outlook continually far from ideal

Monday, April 26, 2021

Inflation fears stoked! Mainstream media, besides Ag media, is paying attention.


Soaring soy oil futures, to levels higher than the 2010-12 high, lead veg oil (including canola & palm oil) rally, & supports soy futures

Friday, April 23, 2021

Biodiesel demand for soyoil feedstock is primary catalyst. Higher veg oil prices is spurring food inflation.


Nearby May & July soybean futures have topped $15/bu for the first time since June of 2014. New crop November soybean futures also hit new highs.....

Thursday, April 22, 2021 well at $13.466/bu! Grain futures appear to be making another push higher to ration demand!


Lumber futures up +446% since COVID-19 lows! A very good barometer of global economic activity! But where timber supplies/logs are plentiful,.....

Wednesday, April 21, 2021

.....prices are still cheap- like Louisiana. As capacity increases, futures should eventually fall back to Earth.


New crop 21/22 soybean Nov futures broke into "beans in the teens" today & closed at new contract high $12.995/bu! Soy planting debuted @ 3% vs.....

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

.....1% avg & 2% last year. Will US farmers push the easy button & plant more soy acres as cold temps delay fast start to corn planting?


US Midwest latest deep freeze is worst ever for April & will hit 12 states starting tonight & push South to Texas? Could damage early-planted corn &..

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

.....soybean emergence & wheat. '97 had wet recovery & record wheat but '21 could be hot/dry- worse case for recovering wheat?


After worst quarter in 4 years, gold futures had the best week in 4 months (+2%), rising on lower US$ & bond yields.....

Friday, April 16, 2021

Also China gave banks permission to import large amount of bullion to meet domestic demand. ~150 MT likely to be shipped in coming months?


Canola futures closed at its highest weekly close ever! Malaysian Palm Oil futures also closed the week near record highs. Veg oil tightness continues

Friday, April 16, 2021 support prices, & persisting dry conditions across most of the Prairies could propel values higher?


Nearby May Corn Futures Hit $6 overnight! - first since mid-2013...

Thursday, April 15, 2021

$6 corn is official!

Futures have been propelled by tighter U.S. 20/21 old crop ending stocks, strong export demand, recovering ethanol demand, concerns over a Brazilian 20/21 safrinha second corn crop (yield estimates are already being chalked down due to delayed planting and moisture deficit risk for the developing crop), not enough U.S .2021 corn acres, and a slower start to North American planting season (due to persistent cold weather and a pending drought). All these factors are creating a “perfect storm” and adding a risk premium to ration demand. 

Weekly USDA today exports are disappointing and will weigh on futures this morning. But breaking above the crucial $6 mark has signaled the market's bullish intent, as the variable North American growing season is just kicking into gear!


IMEA drops corn yield est in Brazil's biggest safrinha producing state Mato Grosso to ~97.7 bpa, off -3.56% Y/Y. 45% crop was planted after ideal.....

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

.....window on Feb 28 due to late soybean planting. More moisture deficits will weigh! Corn futures trade to new contract highs.


China imported record 1.02 MMT of meat in March on supply concerns, as ASF still haunts hog herds in world’s biggest pork consumer &.....

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

.....they continued to import to fill shortages. Trade is most bullish on lean hogs since late 2017.


US recommends pause of single-dose Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine to investigate reports of blood clots. Canada is expecting 10 mil doses.....

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

.....starting April & is monitoring situation- suspension will slow vaccination? Markets weren't alarmed by the news.


US stock markets soared! Dow Index rose +300 points to new record highs, +86% since March 2020 COVID-19 low, gained 2% weekly!

Friday, April 9, 2021

Bond yields eased off from recent inflation-expected climb. Producer prices rose more than expected in March & had the largest annual gain in 9+ years.


USDA 2021 April Crop Report Mixed Friendly Corn and Wheat but Disappointing Soybeans

Friday, April 9, 2021

U.S. corn stocks came in lower than expected with $5.00/bu Dec corn futures, while wheat comes in slightly higher. Soybeans are unchanged from March a real disappointment (USDA needs to tell markets that the U.S. is running out of old crop 20/21 U.S. soybeans and once again they have kicked the can down the road). USDA however did surprise with an increase in U.S. corn feed usage and ethanol up 35 and 2 million bushels respectively. Exports were increased 75 million bushels slightly lower than expectations for 100.

World corn stocks came in a bit lower than expected soybeans much higher (lower use in China). Wheat came in much lower than expected as USDA increased China's wheat feeding yet again.

China's 20/21 imports of soybeans were unchanged at 100 mmt, but USDA has them crushing 2 mmt less than before, adding it to carryout. China's wheat imports stay at 10.5 mmt and corn at 24 mmt.

USDA increased Brazil's output of soybeans to a record 136 mmt from 134 mmt last month but leaves the corn crop unch. (CONAB at 137 and 105 respectively) Argentina's soybeans were also unchanged but corn came down by 0.5 mmt.


Study (in 9 states from Oregon to New Mexico) says Megadrought (intense droughts that last for decades) emerging in western US.

Thursday, April 8, 2021

Nearly-20-year drought could be worse than any in past 1,200 years. First observed multidecadal megadrought in recorded history.


US is at 150 mil COVID-19 vaccinations- almost half way there! Impressive! IMF says vaccines are the main weapon’ to achieve faster economic recovery

Thursday, April 8, 2021

US Fed FOMC minutes reflect optimism over economic revival, while continuing supportive measures.


Sri Lanka bans imports of Palm Oil & new palm plantations- producers to uproot existing plantations in phases, due to environmental concerns.....

Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Similar concerns were raised earlier for Malaysia/Indonesia. Curbs on plantations tighten global palm oil supply.


Crude Oil futures fell 5+% as OPEC+ shocks market by agreeing to ease output cuts by 2 mbpd during May-July 2021 (from 7.2 mbpd), restoring.....

Monday, April 5, 2021

.....5% of supplies. Iran, exempt from making voluntary cuts, is also boosting supply. With oil @ $60+/barrel, this was imminent?


Trade is throwing around 3-3.5 million unaccounted U.S. acres from USDA March 1 Planting Intentions Report. But if past performance.....

Thursday, April 1, 2021

.....over 10 years according to the USDA is any indication the difference from March to June is only +/-0.005% unless its a planting problem year?


USDA 2021 March 1 Stocks and Planting Intentions Report Very, Very Bullish limit up across the board!

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

New contract highs for May corn futures but limit up 25 cents across the board until July of 2022. New contract highs for July 2021 soybean futures and limit up 70 cents across the board thru July of 2022. We have expanded limits on corn tomorrow at $0.40/bu and soybeans at $1.05/bu.

March 1 corn stocks come in slightly below expectations while those for soybeans just a bit above. Wheat stocks came in higher than the trade guess.

All U.S. wheat plantings come in notably larger than trade estimates at 46.358 million acres vs. expected at 44.971, and that was driven by a 1.1 million-acre increase in winter wheat area over the January seedings report. Spring wheat (which was expected to steal acres from corn and soy) comes in just above expectations.

Nothing surprising in the cotton and small grains area. Cotton comes in a hair above expectations at 12.036 million, as does sorghum at 6.940 million acres. Oats and barley a bit lower than analysts thought.

U.S. corn plantings drop well below trade expectations, as do those for soybeans. Area for corn and soybeans is pegged at 178.7 million acres, below the trade expectation for 183.2 million and USDA's outlook of 182 million. That will fall below 2017's record of 180.3 million. If we add the increase in cotton, spring wheat and sorghum acres the total is 1.366 less the 4.5 million acres from pre-report guesses and there are 3.134 million acres that went somewhere else? Maybe canola, sunflower or potatoes?


US winter wheat conditions did not improve as much as expected wk/wk despite recent rains. SRW wheat conditions did improve & weighed on wheat futures

Tuesday, March 30, 2021

.....Some pockets of concern on the US Plains & Canadian Prairies but not enough to reverse futures yet.


After threatening to do so earlier in March, Dow is trading @ new highs above 33K! US (+7% growth in 2021?) & global (+5.4%?) economic recovery.....

Monday, March 29, 2021

.....optimism gathers steam despite more stumbles likely (EU/South America)? But there's light at the end of the tunnel!


Lean hog futures above $100 on the weekly chart for the first time sine Oct 2014 (PEDv year), on bullish (tight) USDA March Hogs & Pigs report

Friday, March 26, 2021

3rd consecutive higher weekly close. June futures above $104 has only been in 4 months during 46 years!


Bullish USDA March 2021 Hogs & Pigs report, with all the estimates coming in under expectations! Summer June-August Farrowing Intentions 4% lower!

Thursday, March 25, 2021

Marketing Hole? These numbers are not factored into futures yet, look for more upside near-term?


Trade does not expect a significant increase in the US all hogs inventory in tomorrow's USDA Hogs & Pigs quarterly report- 100.1% of last year &.....

Wednesday, March 24, 2021

.....kept for breeding expected to shrink to 98.7%! Kept for marketing 100.2%. Marketing hole due to PRRS/PEDv?


Crude Oil futures broke below 50-day moving average on US inventory build & extended COVIDー19 lockdowns in EU, but recovered? Increased volatility....

Tuesday, March 23, 2021

.....& corrective action before summer driving demand? Over-extended, Over-bought!


US 2021 Battle for Acres heats up with corn higher at 93-94, soybeans below 90, not enough! Corn on corn acres lower? 80%-90% will go to rotation.....

Monday, March 22, 2021

.....but swing acres could go to other crops with soaring fertilizer prices. There will be a surprise!


China customs data showed corn imports in Feb 2021 up +556% Y/Y, sorghum +267%, wheat +189%, pork +28%, as it continues to be the biggest ag.....

Thursday, March 18, 2021

..... consumer & importer. Expect their big imports to continue thru 2021?


US Fed expects economy accelerating @ 6.5% in 2021 vs Dec projection of 4.2%. Inflation expected to hit 2.4% vs target 2%, but drop to 2% in 2022

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

But Fed will not raise rates till 2023, & will continue to buy $120 Bil in bonds monthly? US bond market disagrees.


US winter wheat conditions improve slightly wk/wk but much worse off Y/Y- Kansas +2% wk/wk to 38% G-E (-8% Y/Y) Texas unchanged at 27%.....

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

..... G-E (-9% Y/Y) Colorado +6% to 25% G-E (unchanged Y/Y) Oklahoma +4% to 57% G-E (-10% Y/Y)


Travel is starting to pick up as TSA officers screened 1,357,111 mil people at U.S. airports this past Friday, making it the highest number.....

Monday, March 15, 2021

.....of passengers on a single day since March 15, 2020.


US pork cutout at its highest for this time of the year since PEDv year 2014, closing in on $100! Summer July futures also close to $100.....

Thursday, March 11, 2021

In the last 30 years at least, July futures crossed above $100 on March 11th only twice- 2011 & 2014!


Did you know that the $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus package is larger than Canada’s GDP! It will drive the global post-COVID-19 economic recovery,.....

Wednesday, March 10, 2021

.....led by the U.S. Some now forecast a 7% U.S. GDP growth for 2021- the best in decades


Crude Oil futures @ their highest since October 2018. It has climbed by ~$30 since early Nov. 2020, & +42% since the March 2020 COVID-19 lows,.....

Tuesday, March 9, 2021 the recovery gathers steam & looks ahead to summer 2021 driving & economic reopening. Next target- 2018 high of $77


US Winter wheat deterioration continues in major states. Conditions fell in Kansas -1% wk/wk to 36% G-E (off -11% Y/Y), Texas fell -1% wk/wk.....

Tuesday, March 9, 2021 27% G-E (up +1% Y/Y), & Oklahoma improved +7% wk/wk to 53% G-E (off -5% Y/Y)


Soybeans, Canola, Soyoil and Hogs trade to new contract highs as of 03-08-21!

Monday, March 8, 2021

Soybeans, Canola, Soyoil and Hogs trade to new contract highs as of 03-08-21!


CFTC 2 March 2021- spec funds cut back net long position in corn, soybeans, canola, cotton, cattle; but raised it in SRW wheat, hogs...

Friday, March 5, 2021

Together, almost all grains, oilseeds & livestock have been in net long territory for 11 straight weeks (feeders took a break in mid-Jan)

CFTC Managed Money Positions in Ag as of March 2nd, 2021

Grains 2-Mar 23-Feb Gain/Loss
Corn 348,546 361,151 -12,605
Oats 817 794 23
Soybeans 155,561 172,364 -16,803
Soy Meal 65,424 69,487 -4,063
Soy Oil 108,081 112,645 -4,564
SRW Wheat 31,803 26,910 4,893
HRW Wheat 51,724 53,208 -1,484
HRS Wheat 14,101 12,153 1,948
Canola 33,658 39,957 -6,299
Cotton 66,031 72,454 -6,423
Lean Hogs 74,133 72,780 1,353
Live Cattle 80,570 88,164 -7,594
Feeder Cattle 1,164 1,734 -570

Source: CFTC


New & old crop canola futures trade to new contract highs! March futures expired at new record $828.9/MT after trading as high as $852.1 .....

Thursday, March 4, 2021

.....(2008 high was $744.5). May futures are trying to break above $800. Tight Canadian supplies get tighter!


Bubble Anyone? China stokes "bubble" fears... US stock markets continue to rise, aiming at new record highs, as if #COVID19 never happened...

Tuesday, March 2, 2021

Canadian real estate is soaring relentlessly even as economic data doesn't substantiate it....


2020 was a banner year for Canadian pork exports @ 1.49 MMT, valued @ CDN$5.093 bil, up +17.89% & 19.89% Y/Y. Exports to China grew over.....

Monday, March 1, 2021

.... 2½ times to record CDN$1.645 bil & 0.61 MMT. 2021 may find it tough to beat that but should stay elevated


2021 US corn and soybeans February final crop insurance averaging is $4.58 & $11.87/bu. A 6/7 year high is most likely going to attract record.....

Friday, February 26, 2021

.....acres, so will the USDA surprise on March 31st?


US Midwest 2021 dry conditions could be great for planting season but maybe not for the growing season?

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Australia will receive above-average fall rains in grain-growing eastern regions, helped by La Nina. Summer has been wetter than usual.
Australia will receive above-average fall rains in grain-growing eastern regions, helped by #LaNina. Summer has been wetter than usual.


US fertilizer prices up ~20% since the recent low in Oct 2020 on a perfect storm of strong demand, soaring grain prices, good spring application.....

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

.....prospects & tight global supply. Another 2012-type high in order long-term?


Old crop canola futures soar to $800/MT- first time ever! Tight near-term availability as Canada runs out of supply & frigid Prairies temps compound..

Monday, February 22, 2021

..the situation! New crop though is undervalued vs. old


Since at least 2010, USDA has not reported US soybean carryout this tight in the early annual Ag Outlook Forum (despite record output anticipated &...

Friday, February 19, 2021

.....second-highest yield)! Corn carryout is the tightest projected since the 2011 (La Nina) Forum


AAFC Feb update- 20/21 & 21/22 Canada canola carryout 700,000MT vs 1.2 & 1 MMT previously! 21/22 stocks-use ratio @ only 3%! If strong demand holds...

Thursday, February 18, 2021

.....carryout could be closer to 0 & Canada will need to import? Will 2021 acres be up 3-4%? If not it will add more fuel to fireworks!


ABARES- Australia to harvest record 20/21 wheat crop, at 33.34 MMT vs. previous 16/17 high of 31.8 MMT.....

Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Heavy rains in key producing regions boosted yields. Harvesting almost complete. USDA will update world balance-sheet higher in March?


National Cotton Council projects US farmers will plant 600,000 less cotton acres in 2021 (@ 11.5 mil). But with futures up +12% since start of 2021...

Thursday, February 11, 2021

..... vs. corn +4.1% & soybeans +7%, someone will be surprised in the USDA March 31st Planting Intentions report!


Palm Oil futures resilient despite broader weakness in canola, corn, soybeans, wheat. Veg oil tightness continues in 2021 as.....

Wednesday, February 10, 2021

..... March palm oil closes at new contract high. Grains/oilseed could follow soon- not if but when!


Farm Futures planting survey of 806 farmers in Jan. pegs 21 U.S. corn acres at 94.7 million, soybeans 84.5, winter wheat 32.4, spring 12.6....

Friday, February 5, 2021

The new crop bean/corn ratio 2.58% is too low! 84.7 soys too low it will not fix a tight balance sheet. '21 drought = prices thru the roof!

Farm Futures 21/22 U.S. Crop Acreage Estimates

(in Mil Acres) Farm Futures 21/22 Est.- Jan USDA 21/22 Early Est. USDA 20/21 Final
Corn 94.7 90.0 90.8
Soybeans 84.5 89.0 83.1

Source: USDA, Farm Futures


Tomorrow's Stats Canada Dec 31 quarterly grain stocks report is expected to show significantly lower canola stocks at 12.3 MMT, off -3.61 MMT Y/Y ....

Thursday, February 4, 2021

..... on strong demand. Wheat stocks also lower at 25.4 MMT.


New contract highs in hog futures- continued strong exports, domestic demand & smaller supplies in coming months. ASF, PED cases in China's hogs....

Wednesday, February 3, 2021

..... , as piglet prices double, could slow their pork industry recovery. US pork exports to China could remain strong in 1st half of 2021?


Groundhog Day- Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, meaning 6 more weeks of winter! Its a 50/50 coin flip, but maybe Mother Nature has a different....

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

..... outlook with a La Nina weather forecast? It could be an early, warm & dry planting season?


Heavy rains (up to 10 inches) were seen in Southern regions of Brazil. Very poor timing for soybean harvest & safrinha corn planting....

Monday, February 1, 2021

Heavy rains (up to 10 inches) were seen in Southern regions of Brazil like Parana, Southern Catarina, Southern Mato Grosso Du Sul & Northern Rio Grande Du Sul. Very poor timing for soybean harvest & safrinha corn planting. Feb. is expected to stay wet!


Brazil's IMEA estimated Mato Grosso's 20/21 2nd season Safrinha corn planting progress at 2.1% complete, lagging last year's 21.9% & long term avg 14%

Friday, January 29, 2021

Soybeans harvest 4.7% complete, lagging 26.7% LY & 17.6% long term avg


New US farm bill in 2 yrs, Tom Vilsack says USDA will enable carbon markets where polluters pay farmers to plant grass/trees vs corn/soy....

Thursday, January 28, 2021

.....; expand payments to farmers for conservation stewardship Taking acres away = much higher prices?


US economy contracted -3.5% in 2020 as COVID19 lockdowns to control the spread of the virus slowed growth, it but gained +4% in Q4 vs....

Thursday, January 28, 2021

 .....expected 4.3%. 2021 growth expected at 4-6% on vaccine hope


AAFC est +3% increase in 2021 Canadian canola acres but stocks tighten to 1 MMT (even below 2020's tight 1.2) What if acres are not up & La Nina .....

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

..... results in lower yields, with a continued record demand inflationary environment, then what? New crop canola futures to the moon?


ADM earnings per share at a record, reporting China bought 200 mil gallons of US ethanol for first half 2021 (Game Changer?). CEO also expects record

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

Ukraine to limit 20/21 corn export at 24 MMT. They increased 20/21 grain export forecast to 45.42 MMT from prev 44.18 MMT. They raised 2020 corn....

Monday, January 25, 2021

....harvest to 30.3 MMT from 29.3 & exports to 23.5 MMT from 22.3. In 19/20 they exported 57 MMT grain


With corn futures +63%, soybeans +74% and cotton +59%, has corn bought acres from either, IHS Markit reporting 2021 US corn acres at 94.2 million?

Thursday, January 21, 2021

184 million corn/soy acreage pie looks a little ambitious?

21/22 U.S. Crop Acreage Early Estimates

(in Mil Acres) Markit 21/22 Est.- Jan Markit 21/22 Est.- Dec USDA 21/22 Early Est. USDA 20/21 Final
Corn 94.2 91.1 90.0 90.8
Soybeans 90.1 89.45 89.0 83.1
All Wheat 45.3 45.46 46.0 44.3
Cotton 11.5 13 11.2 12.1

Source: USDA, Markit Group


After USDA dropped 20/21 global grains supply est. in Jan WASDE, IGC affirmed it in their est. 20/21 corn output is reduced vs. prior est. ...........

Thursday, January 14, 2021

by a significant -13 MMT to 1,133 MMT, soybeans off -6 to 359, wheat off -1 to 768

20/21 IGC Grain Output & Consumption Estimates

(in Billion MT) 20/21 Jan. 20/21 Nov. Jan. vs. Nov. 19/20
Corn Output 1.133 1.146 -0.013 1.124
Soybean Output 0.359 0.365 -0.006 0.338
Wheat Outout 0.768 0.769 -0.001 0.764
Total Grain Output 2.21 2.22 -0.01 2.186
Total Grain Consumption 2.216 2.222 -0.006 2.192
Source: International Grains Council


EPA giving US refiners more time to blend to meet the deadlines for 2019 & 2020. EPA could grant 22 of 32 small refinery exemptions requested for 2019

Thursday, January 14, 2021

...compliance year? EPA has not reported one way or the other where they stand on SREs


Russia likely to extend wheat export tax into new marketing year beginning July 1! EU prices up over $34/MT Euros since December.....

Thursday, January 14, 2021

....What will wheat prices do when Russian export tax takes effect in mid-Feb? KC & MW wheat futures to new contract highs!


Argentina has lifted all restrictions on old crop corn exports, but they will monitor situation to guarantee internal supply....

Wednesday, January 13, 2021

The export limit set at 30,000 MT/ day earlier this week. The 30,000 MT limit was itself a replacement for a complete suspension on all old crop corn exports during January and February, which was introduced at the end of December amid surging international corn, wheat and soybean prices.

According to private estimates, there is a stock of more than 8 mmt of corn in the domestic market, a volume more than enough to supply the 3.46 mmt required by the domestic market during January and February.


2021 Final January USDA Crop Reports Extremely Bullish Surprise & Shock for Corn!

Tuesday, January 12, 2021


Corn Harvested Area (Mil Acres) 82.5 82.543 82.527
Yield (bpa) 172 175.3 175.8
Production (Bil Bu) 14.182 14.470 14.507
Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 1.552 1.590 1.702
Soybeans Harvested Area (Mil Acres) 82.3 82.305 82.289
Yield (bpa) 50.2 50.5 50.7
Production (Bil Bu) 4.135 4.158 4.170
Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 0.140 0.140 0.175
Wheat Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 0.836 0.860 0.862

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters



CORN 283.83 283.5 288.96
SOYBEANS 84.31 82.70 85.64
WHEAT 313.19 315.4 316.5

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters



(in MMT) USDA 20/21 JAN. 20/21 JAN. TRADE AVERAGE USDA 20/21 DEC.
CORN 47.5 47.4 49.0
SOYBEANS 48.0 48.4 50.0
CORN 109.0 107.7 110.0
SOYBEANS 133.0 131.4 133.0

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters



(Bil Bu) USDA Dec. 1, 2020 Pre-Report Estimates, Dec. 1, 2020 USDA Sept.1, 2020 USDA Dec. 1, 2019
Corn 11.322 11.95 1.919 11.327
Soybeans 2.933 2.92 0.525 3.252
All Wheat 1.674 1.695 2.158 1.841

Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters



(Mil Acres) 2021 January USDA Jan 2021 Market Est. 2020 USDA
All Winter Wheat 31.991 31.528 30.415
Hard Red Winter Wheat 22.3 22.14 21.362
Soft Red Winter Wheat 6.23 5.884 5.564
White Winter 3.48 3.514 3.489

Source: USDA, Reuters


More fuel to the fire in wheat complex- Russia mulling plan to increase its proposed 25 euro/MT export tax to 50 euros?

Monday, January 11, 2021

Hike could come during Feb 15-March 15th?


2021 La Nina- US Midwest & Southern Plains has been drier than normal, and the US Drought Monitor map shows that 29% of Soybean area is in drought....

Friday, January 8, 2021

Spring-Summer outlook is dry. The start of 2012 looks similar to the start of 2021


Pre-port estimates for Jan 2021 USDA WASDE are coming in too high, so there is a high probability that the USDA could provide a bullish surprise?

Thursday, January 7, 2021


Corn Harvested Area (Mil Acres) 82.543 82.0 - 84.16 82.527
Yield (bpa) 175.3 173.8 - 178.2 175.8
Production (Bil Bu) 14.470 14.319 - 14.997 14.507
Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 1.590 1.400 - 1.782 1.702
Soybeans Harvested Area (Mil Acres) 82.305 81.986 - 82.67 82.289
Yield (bpa) 50.5 49.4 - 51.7 50.7
Production (Bil Bu) 4.158 4.084 - 4.26 4.170
Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 0.140 0.105 - 0.166 0.175
Wheat Ending Stocks (Bil Bu) 0.860 0.837 - 0.900 0.862


Source: USDA, QTPlus, Reuters


The soybeans rally will have to pause at some point? But its remained overbought technically for 4 months & still rising? No exhaustion yet but....

Wednesday, January 6, 2021

.... maybe "buying the rumor, selling the news" ahead of Jan WASDE. Or will USDA surprise & futures will need to ration more demand?


US Winter wheat conditions through the end of 2020 was much worse off Y/Y, with a lot of significant poor-very poor (P-VP) ratings.....

Tuesday, January 5, 2021

....Wheat has been a follower to corn & soybeans for the most part so far but could soon lead, as it did in 2010?

U.S. Winter Wheat Conditions @ End-2020

U.S. States End-2020 End-2019
G-E % P-VP% G-E % P-VP%
Illinois 50 25 48 16
Colorado 19 34 57 19
Kansas 46 17 40 21
Montana 65 5 55 16
Nebraska 37 15 70 6
North Dakota 26 22 75 7
South Dakota 37 8 73 1

Source: USDA
U.S. Winter Wheat Conditions @ End-2020


New contract highs in grain & oilseed futures at the start of the new year- 2021

Monday, January 4, 2021

as South American crop supply worries continue due to dry weather, but demand remains strong.


CFTC weekly COT, Dec 29, 2020- spec funds bought a whopping 66,332 contracts net in corn to take net length to 332,045, highest since summer 2012, &..

Monday, January 4, 2021

now estimated long 350,000 after last week's price surge!

CFTC Managed Money Positions in Ag as of December 29th, 2020
CFTC Managed Money Positions in Ag as of December 29th, 2020

Grains 29-Dec 21-Dec Gain/Loss
Corn 332,045 265,713 66,332
Oats 1,481 1,404 77
Soybeans 196,487 188,623 7,864
Soy Meal 89,487 83,385 6,102
Soy Oil 112,989 101,253 11,736
SRW Wheat 13,360 6,233 7,127
HRW Wheat 55,560 51,544 4,016
HRS Wheat 3,933 2,420 1,513
Canola 56,215 60,390 -4,175
Cotton 68,429 70,533 -2,104
Lean Hogs 33,770 32,854 916
Live Cattle 49,001 47,698 1,303
Feeder Cattle 3,726 3,358 368

Source: CFTC


Russian officials considering imposing a wheat export tax of around 2,000 roubles ($27.3) per MT for Feb. 15-June 30, to stabilise domestic prices

Friday, December 11, 2020

Russia is considering imposing the wheat export tax, a grain export quota as well as a price cap for domestic sunflower oil and sugar prices following President Vladimir Putin's criticism of rising food prices.


USDA 2020 December Crop Report Friendly with a Surprise Lower Global Wheat Ending Stocks Number

Thursday, December 10, 2020

USDA leaves the U.S. corn balance sheet unchanged, but soybeans fall to 175 million bushels on a 15-million-bushel jump in crush. Soybean exports were left unchanged. Wheat exports were increased 10 million bushels and U.S. ending stocks fall to 862 million bushels below expectations vs. last month at 877.

USDA reduced the global ending stocks of corn, soybeans and surprised with a much lower wheat number vs. expectations. China corn imports jumped to 16.5 mmt from 13 mmt. Wheat supplies in fell in China and EU. China wheat imports bumped up 0.5 mmt to 8.5 mmt.

USDA reduced the 20/21 harvest of both corn and soybeans in Argentina by 1 mmt each. The 19/20 Argentina soybean harvest was also trimmed from 49 mmt. Brazil crops were unchanged from the November estimates.

 The "holy grail" report and potential bullish surprise will be the final January USDA crop report on Jan. 12, 2021. In the past 7 years the USDA has lowered U.S. corn ending stocks 6 out of 7 years from the Nov. to Jan. crop reports. Soybeans lower 4 out of the past 5 years!

Cash crop producers be patient remain on the offence (risk on futures) with unpriced bushels, do not pay commercial elevator storage. Livestock producers/commercials extend feed coverage/get covered out further on any any further breaks in futures by year-end.


Latest USDA weekly corn inspections disappointing but soybeans were better than expected with 68% to China. Wheat inspections up +3% Y/Y....

Monday, December 7, 2020



Trade Expectations

Prior Week


(Y/Y %)



750 - 1,100






1,500 - 2,200






400 - 600





USDA Dec crop report estimates show trade anticipating the continuation of the tightening trend in the US and world ending stocks,.....

Monday, December 7, 2020

..... not including world wheat. Modest downward revisions are expected in South American production.


Latest CFTC weekly report showed speculative money reducing length in grains. -16.9k corn (net long 270.6k), -9.1k soybeans (net long 194.6k),....

Friday, December 4, 2020

.... -19.6k srw (net short -4.3k), -3.9k hrw (net long 44.5k), -749 meal (net long 70.3k) and -626 oil (net long 104.7k).


Stats Can says 20/21 Canadian canola production is smallest in 5 years as both Saskatchewan & Alberta reported lower production.....

Thursday, December 3, 2020

Yields were impacted by dry conditions across parts of the Prairies, especially later in the growing season.

The November production estimates for the 2020 Canadian wheat, canola and corn crops tightened vs. the July estimates, while the soybeans, barley and oats estimates were higher vs. July.

(in MMT)

2020 (Nov. Est.)

2020 (July Est.)


Y/Y Change

Total wheat










Spring Wheat





Winter Wheat




































CFTC weekly COT, Nov 17th- corn, soybeans & wheat saw net speculative selling, whereas hogs & cattle featured net buying.

Friday, November 20, 2020

Managed money funds have been net long almost all grains & livestock since early Sept.


In 2½ months of MY 20/21, US committed ~86% of soybeans export target (at record 2.2 bil bu) on extraordinary China demand.

Thursday, November 19, 2020

Remaining 14% must be rationed, and exports could be increased further? The winter rally has more legs left?


CFTC weekly COT for Nov 10- Recent speculative position in #soybeans near the "peaks" of (record futures year) 2012!

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Managed money funds sold corn, wheat, canola, cotton, hogs. Cattle featured net speculative buying. 


Soybean futures closing in on $12/bu target. La Nina is increasing dryness in South America at a time when the global balance sheet is tightening.

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

South Brazil & Argentina are most affected in La Nina years. $12 beans was last seen in June 2016 (briefly)


Crude Oil futures buoyed by positive COVID-19 vaccine news. OPEC expects 2020 world oil demand to contract by ~9.8 mbpd Y/Y. OPEC+ meet .....

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

.... Nov 30 & Dec 1 to discuss next phase of oil production policy. 2021 demand looks better?


It took FOUR years for Soybean futures to climb back above $11.50/bu, as USDA delivered a BULLISH Nov WASDE surprise with .....

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

.... lower US 20/21 crop est, including corn and wheat. Early Christmas gift, with ideas of strong close to 2020 as it ALL comes together for grain markets?


Dow hits record 30K! Pfizer says COVID19 vaccine is more than 90% effective (vs seasonal flu at 40-60%). 1.2 mil doses available in 2021....

Monday, November 9, 2020

Risk-ON recovery? Money shifting from stay-at-home stocks (ZOOM) to growth stocks (tech, energy)?


Strength in grains supported by expected US & global balance sheet tightening in USDA Nov 10th WASDE, with La Nina uncertainty in South America...

Thursday, November 5, 2020

USDA to revise corn & soybean exports on increased China demand & lower production, yields & ending stocks.


New contract highs for deferred #soybean futures as the rally kicks into higher gear

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

USDA Nov WASDE expected to show for lower yields & tighter 20/21 US corn and soybean crops.
Demand continues to be strong.
La Nina is threatening South American Crops.


#2 soybean exporter US is shipping 38,000 MT to #1 exporter Brazil (largest such transaction since 1997), as it is grappling with rising prices .....

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

.... of domestic food staples. Futures boosted by continued strong demand


La Nina, which is currently moderate-to-strong, likely to be active through spring 2021, & in summer 2021?

Monday, November 2, 2020


CFTC COT Oct 27- managed money funds bought 57,410 in corn to take net length to 276,235, highest since late-July 2015...

Friday, October 30, 2020

But likely to come down in next week's report due to sell off this week. 2021 futures closed higher today though


Crude oil futures break below support on global COVID-19 case increases & US presidential election jitters. But US Q3 GDP up +33% a positive. OPEC+...

Thursday, October 29, 2020

... might have to increase production cut in Jan as demand falters


USDA monthly cumulative daily sales announcements started soaring in July due to China demand but the pace has slowed in October....

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Daily announcements only include those that are higher than 100,000-200,000 MT

2020 Monthly Cumulative Daily Sales Announcements Since July

(in MMT) Corn Soybeans
July 6.287 4.162
August 3.155 4.597
September 2.172 5.89
1.286 2.748


Source: USDA, QTPlus


Weekly CFTC commitment of traders for Oct 20- managed money funds increased net length in Ag, except cattle

Friday, October 23, 2020

Corn highest since March 2018.Soybean highest since Sept. 2012 .
Grain futures had a strong weekly close.


China requested millers to stop buying Australian cotton. That and potential damage from Hurricane Delta in US cotton regions supported cotton futures

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Dec reached a high of $71.65 today- values not seen in 9-months!


US consumption of renewable energy in 2019 grew for 4th consecutive year to record 11.5 quadrillion Btu (11% of total US energy consumption)

Monday, October 19, 2020

Wind-powered (turbine) electricity accounted for ~24%, overtaking hydroelectricity.


CFTC COT for 13 Oct showed more managed money fund buying in corn, wheat, cotton & hogs, and selling in soybeans, canola & cattle.

Friday, October 16, 2020

CFTC Managed Money Positions in Ag as of October 13th, 2020

Grains 13-Oct 6-Oct Gain/Loss
Corn 170,869 134,466 36,403
Oats 1,477 1,375 102
Soybeans 226,444 238,394 -11,950
Soy Meal 77,068 77,067 1
Soy Oil 82,188 80,994 1,194
SRW Wheat 38,590 30,336 8,254
HRW Wheat 32,197 27,379 4,818
HRS Wheat -1,774 -5,112 3,338
Canola 52,949 58,470 -5,521
Cotton 59,942 53,080 6,862
Lean Hogs 37,154 35,674 1,480
Live Cattle 56,038 59,016 -2,978
Feeder Cattle -3,834 -1,872 -1,962

Source: CFTC


2020 December Corn Futures overnight hit $4.00/bu!

Thursday, October 15, 2020

The uptrend remains intact on a smaller U.S. corn crop, strong Chinese demand and the perception that a continued dry South American La Nina weather pattern will further delay the soybean planting season and push the second-Safrinha corn crop into a less desirable window-of-weather.

In the past 3-yaers corn futures have traded above $4.10/bu but always in the spring.

The probability is increasing that it may happen by year-end!


It's been exactly a year to the date since nearby corn futures broke above $4! Soybeans last week reached the highest since January 2017!

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Some (recent) historic milestones?


US pork cutout at new highs for the current leg up. Pork bellies doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Demand continues to be king!

Tuesday, October 13, 2020

supportive for hog futures, along with its steep discount to cash (which will entice more buying on breaks)


US CPC La Nina advisory- 85% chance La Nina conditions likely to last through northern hemisphere winter & 60% chance they will run into spring-2021

Friday, October 9, 2020


USDA 2020 October Crop Report Bullish Corn, Soybean & Wheat as U.S. Ending Stocks Fall!

Friday, October 9, 2020

According to today’s much-anticipated USDA Oct. WASDE crop report, U.S. 20/21 corn yield was slightly lowered, no change to soybeans, and wheat was lowered to 49.7bpa from 50.1 last month. But harvested area was reduced for both soys & corn after a review of certified acreage data from FSA. Corn and soy production both came in below trade expectations as a result.

20/21 US soybean ending stocks came in at 290 mil bu for 2020/21, well below trade expectations, on a harvest reduction, increase in exports, and a smaller beginning stocks. Corn comes in close to trade expectations, and wheat is lower. 

20/21 global ending stocks were generally lighter than expected, especially for soybeans, though new crop wheat is much higher. Russia's 2020 harvest was increased 5 mmt. Ukraine's corn harvest was cut by 2 mmt. China's 20/21 soybean demand +1 mmt to 100 mmt. 


August US ag exports to China @ $2.15 bil including $881 mil soybeans, $190 mil corn , about double that of July. YTD ag exports to China @ $9.6 bil

Thursday, October 8, 2020

& will accelerate fast as record Q4 sales needed to meet Phase 1 goal.


Dec Chicago wheat traded above $6 today, at the upper level of short-term channel and keeps the 4-year uptrend alive. Dry weather in Russia &......

Wednesday, October 7, 2020

 .....region is tightening world supplies. Russia planning on setting grain export quota for the first half of 2021!


Soybean futures open interest topped 1 million for the first time ever! Nov at new contract high. Will #USDA surprise for the 2nd consecutive time....

Tuesday, October 6, 2020

..... in less than 2 weeks? In Oct. WASDE crop report, trade expects lower 20/21 U.S. corn & soybean yields and ending stocks, and lower ending stocks for wheat.


CFTC Sept. 29th, Managed Money net buyers of corn, soybean & products, &Cattle. Soybeans closing in on record long and likely already there post......

Friday, October 2, 2020

.... USDA Sept 30th Grain Stocks report. Funds will be in for more positioning ahead of next week's crop report


USDA pork cutout jumps +$4.28 today to $95.65. That's a climb of +$33.05 since early July. As exports also roar on hog futures find support,....

Thursday, October 1, 2020

 .... especially as futures have a steep discount to cash. Demand is King!


2021 July Corn Futures hit $4.00/bu intraday high today a 7-month high!

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Corn futures rallied today after a bullish USDA Sept. 1 stocks report surprise.


USDA Sept. 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report & U.S. whaet production below expectations & BULLISH!

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

September 1 U.S. stocks came in below pre-report expectations for corn down 255 millio0n bushels, soybeans down 53 million bushels and wheat down 83 million bushels.

USDA revised June 1 stocks which contributed to the shocking surprise in corn numbers with June 1 U.S. corn stocks revised down 205 million bushels, soybeans down 4.6 million bushels and wheat down 15.9 million bushels.

U.S. wheat production come I below trade estimates and 5% below a year ago.


With dry weather forecasted for most of Oct for US Corn Belt, we may be on pace for 90+% harvest completed for US corn & soybeans by end of Oct?

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Recently, harvest pace for corn was strong in 2015 & soys in 2010


Argentina & South Brazil received weekend rains but key corn & soy producing center west & center-south Brazil remain dry & slowing pace of planting..

Monday, September 28, 2020

.... with little to no help showing in the forecast. More precip is needed there!


From Wall Street Journal- CME & Nasdaq plan to launch WATER futures. 1-of-a-kind allowing protection against price swings, & risk-management tool....

Friday, September 25, 2020

Veles Water Ltd created a water-price index to which the futures will be tied.


Markit Group forecast higher Y/Y US 2021 corn (93.7 mil vs 92 in 2020) & soybean acreage (87.1 vs 83.5 in 2020)! 2021 corn crop @ huge 16.61 bil bu,..

Monday, September 21, 2020

.... 181 bpa; & 2020 @ 14.888 bil bu, 178.7 bpa. 2021 soy @ 4.48 bil bu, 52 bpa; & 2020 @ 4.306 bil bu, 52.1 bpa.


Farm Futures survey (1,044 producers)- 2021 US corn acreage estimated @ 91.8 mil acres vs 92 this year, soybeans @ 87.9 mil, up +4.1 Y/Y, &.....

Friday, September 18, 2020

.... winter wheat @ 31.2 mil (1st acreage increase in 7 years), +2.13% Y/Y)


USDA weekly exports for Sept 10 showed US #pork sales to #China at 35,900 MT, which is among the biggest in 2020. Garmany ASF factor .....

Thursday, September 17, 2020

..... As question marks over China's pork imports from Germany (due to ASF) get bigger, could this be "the factor" that boosts U.S. exports from here on?


Strong winds & heavy rains in China's northeast grain-heavy region may hurt 10 MMT of corn, 4% production. The region was hit by 3 typhoons in Aug....

Wednesday, September 16, 2020

.... , causing flooded fields during crop-maturity, limiting harvest pace & test weights.


COVID-19 will cause a 20% drop in global ethanol production, says US Grains Council. They expect a loss of 23 bil litres of production

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

CFTC data for September 8th shows Managed Money Funds net long position at 1-year high in corn & 2-year high in soybeans

Monday, September 14, 2020

+14.8k corn wk/wk to net long 33.4k & +11.3k soybeans wk/wk to net long 173.9k.


Friendly USDA Sept. WASDE Crop Report- Lower 20/21 US corn & soybeans yield & ending stocks. Dec corn closes week up @ $3.685 & Nov soy $9.96

Friday, September 11, 2020

20/21 U.S. corn yield @ 178.5 bpa & soybeans at 51.9 bpa, both close to trade expectations. Ending stocks came in lower than expected for soybeans & higher than expected for corn. 


ASF detected in wild boar carcass in EU's top pork producer Germany's eastern state. Lean hogs break higher with another gap and closed limit up!

Thursday, September 10, 2020

Optimism for more export demand (especially from China) for US pork?


USDA weekly Crop Progress, Sept 6th- Corn @ 61% G-E, off -1 wk/wk & 5th drop in a row. Soybeans 65% G-E, off -1 wk/wk & 4th drop in a row!

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

Winter wheat 5% planted & spring wheat 82% harvested


The 2020 5th Great Ontario Yield Tour final average corn yield is 183.3 bpa!

Thursday, September 3, 2020

Thank you all who participated hosts, sponsors, scouts & farmers!


2020 5th Annual Great Ontario Yield Tour final average soybean yield is a NEW record high at 53.2 bpa!

Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Thank you all who participated hosts, sponsors, scouts & farmers!


USDA Crop Progress- Aug 30, U.S. corn rated 62% G-E, down -2% from last week but 1% better than trade expectations. Soybeans dropped -3% to 66% G-E,..

Monday, August 31, 2020

... which was in line with expectations. Crop conditions at this time of year are likely less helpful as crops start to dry down and mature. 


Pro Farmer crop tour today pegged the US Corn avg yield at 177.5 bpa (USDA @ 181.8) & soybeans at 52.5 bpa (USDA @ 53.3)......

Friday, August 21, 2020

US Corn Production estimated by tour at 14.82 bil bu (USDA @ 15.278 in Aug report), & Soybean Production at 4.362 bil bu (USDA @ 4.425).


USDA Crop Progress today rated corn 69% G-E (-2% wk/wk) & 10% P-VP (+2%); soybeans 72% G-E (-2%) & 7% P-VP (+2%), on derecho damage

Monday, August 17, 2020

Iowa corn after #derecho fell -10% to 59% G-E, soys fell -8% to 62% G-E. Illinois corn also -3% G-E.


2.5 - 4.5 bpa 20/21 US #corn yield loss possible, says StoneX due to derecho storm. 200-400 mil bu corn destroyed? Iowa's Ag Sec feels 10 mil acres...

Thursday, August 13, 2020

.... in Iowa hit. More acres impacted in Illinois & Midwest


Dirty ridge over US crop area next 10 days. Temps seasonably warm & scattered showers/thunderstorms causing variable rain. Majority light precip....

Friday, August 7, 2020

Ridge stable & significant late next week-Aug 20, more stressful for 'unwatered' crops! 18% of US corn & 13% soybeans in drought


Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 19/20 Argentina corn crop est @ 50 MMT has eclipsed the soybeans crop @ 49.6 MMT for 1st time ....

Thursday, August 6, 2020

.... since weekly records began, due to more harvested area up +19.8% Y/Y


Farmlink-sponsored Canadian Crop Tour projects much bigger Western Canadian wheat, canola, oats & barley crops than AAFC on ....

Wednesday, August 5, 2020

.... much stronger yields. August is in for a strong finish?


Pvt. analysts expect higher US 20/21 corn & Soybean yields than USDA, with many above 180 bpa corn & 52 bpa soys- big record crops! ....

Wednesday, August 5, 2020

Too many leaning too much to the bearish side of the price boat? Will Aug WASDE surprise, from oversold levels?


According to CFTC COT report, as of 28th July, 2020, managed money funds are now net long in canola, which is the first time since end-October 2018...

Friday, July 31, 2020

.... For the week, funds bought net +19,581 contracts.


ADM CEO says that the worst of COVID-19 Ag demand loss is over, while the US is set for large Q4 exports on firm China demand & .....

Thursday, July 30, 2020

.... tight South American supplies.


US Q2-2020 GDP slumped -32.9% Y/Y vs expected -34.7%; 1Q-2020 Final -5%. Sharpest drop since at least 1940s! Personal spending dropped -34.6%,....

Thursday, July 30, 2020

.... also a record! Longer COVID-19 lasts without vaccine, longer US economic output remains below pre-crisis levels?


North Dakota State Uni Crop specialists- dry June weather in western ND & excess rains in southeast will keep ND spring wheat yields lower Y/Y? .....

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

..... 2020 yield likely near 45 bpa vs 49 bpa last year. ND spring wheat crop est. at 263 mil bu?


USDA Crop Progress, 26th July- both corn & soybean conditions uptick +3% to 72% G-E vs. expectations of steady 69%, reflecting improvement .......

Monday, July 27, 2020

..... from recent rains. In 5-day forecast, heavy precip for center of US but missing most major Midwest growing areas?


CFTC COT, 21 July, net managed money in SRW #wheat back to net long after spending 9 weeks in net short. Soybean oil saw a steep 26.7K net buying ....

Saturday, July 25, 2020

..... for the week. Strong veg oil complex buying seen in canola of +12.67K net weekly buying.


2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Illinois rated 8.5/10. Thank You Sponsor

Friday, July 24, 2020

Both the early May cold snap & early June heat may have reduced top end yields. Lots of variability with storm damage but recovery looking strong. We rate the state 8.5 out of 10 with above avg. potential.


2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - In the state of North Dakota. Thank You Sponsor

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

We rate the state a 8 out of 10 & could add to the national yields despite lower corn acres


Malaysian palm oil futures rises on production issues in Indonesia and labour shortages in Malaysia, supports veg oil, including canola .........

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

higher soy oil also supporting a break out in canola futures above resistance


2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - In the state of Minnesota. Thank You Sponsor

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Plenty of moisture corn is 1-2 weeks behind for 50% of the acres. MN should be able to contribute to the national yield & rank the state an 8.5 out of 10.


2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - In the state of Iowa. Thank You Sponsor

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

North to center east/west is the garden spot but wind/hail damage in North/East IA will shave top end yields. South east/west too dry. We rank the state a 9 out of 10 with strong yield potential in 2020.


2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - In the state of Wisconsin. Thank You Sponsor

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

WI was a hit & miss a crop of 2 tails depending on planting date, no stress. Corn production ranked 9th, soybeans 12th. We rank state a 7.5 out of 10 with avg. yield potential. 2019 corn yield 166, soys 47.


US Midwest hot, humid weather stressing reproductive corn & soybeans in low soil moisture areas. U.S. Drought Monitor,......

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

..... 15% of corn area experiencing drought, & 9% of soybean area. Dry weather prevails in Midwest, despite earlier showers and thunderstorms


China bought another 1.6 MMT (63 mil bu) of US corn- 4th largest 1-day sale ever, & takes China's total purchase in 1 week over 3 MMT ...........

Tuesday, July 14, 2020

...... They bought 2.362 MMT for 20/21 MY. 

China also bought 129,000 MT of US soybeans.


2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - In the state of Missouri. Thank You Sponsor

Monday, July 13, 2020

Pollination has already occurred in corn. Blooming in soybeans but its early weather in July/August & precip is most critical for yield. There is no margin for error.


2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Concluding tour in Kansas. Thank You Sponsor

Monday, July 13, 2020

Rating the state, 6 out of 10. Started too wet, got too dry extended period of 3 weeks. Needs timely rains thru Jul/Aug/good finish to beat 2014 record yield of 149 bpa corn & 48 bpa soybeans in 2016.


2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Concluding tour in Nebraska. Thank You Sponsor

Monday, July 13, 2020

Rating state, 7 out of 10. Irrigated acres will offset dry land yields but avg. Western KS dry, topsoil moisture 50% adequate-surplus down from 96%. Corn pollinating in heat, late due to cold snap mid-May.


2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Concluding tour in South Dakota. Thank You Sponsor

Monday, July 13, 2020

Despite too much moisture “rain makes grain” rating state, 7.5 out of 10 avg/above avg. Crops are a week behind with minor issues, but a lack of extreme heat & timely rains should help crop recover.


2020 July WASDE neutral/friendly- US corn ending stocks bit below trade est. in both 19/20 & 20/21. 19/20 & 20/21 US soy stocks above est. 20/21 Wheat

Friday, July 10, 2020

....ending stocks were slightly below trade estimates.

Due to the June acreage numbers, 1 billion bushels were cut from the U.S. 20/21 corn crop productions estimate and 20/21 U.S. soybean production was slightly raised. But both were a bit below trade expectations. No changes were made to yield.


Accuweather- Meteorologists warn that ongoing heat a& drought in parts of US Southwest & Plains states are likely to get worse.....

Monday, July 6, 2020

2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Top observations for Central/Southern IL. Thank You Sponsor @genesisaglife

Thursday, July 2, 2020

Corn is behind for this time of the year. There is higher risk of hot/dry weather affecting the critical pollination stage mid/end of July. Timely rains reduced drought.


2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Top 3 observations for Southern IN. Thank You Sponsor @genesisaglife

Wednesday, July 1, 2020

1. Farmers planted soybeans earlier than corn due to cold/wet & frost during first week of May 

2. Early planted corn 1-week behind, late planted 3-4 

3. Timely rains & yield potential remains strong


Bullish 2020 USDA June Acreage report overshadows Quarterly Grain Stocks report. Grain prices close sharply higher....

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Super reports! The 2020 end-of-June Acreage & Quarterly Grain Stocks  reports release lived up to its reputation as a widow-maker, finding a surprisingly low amount of corn acres and an equally startling higher quarterly US corn inventory as of June 1st. With the market leaning aggressively short with very little hope of a rally just a few short days ago, the bullish acreage data easily overshadowed the bearish quarterly stocks report, in terms of market impact.

The report also showed a lower-than-expected gain in acreage for soybeans, and a significant cut to current stock levels amid increased buying from China over the past couple of months. 

All Wheat acreage too was lower than expected and lower than March intentions, while the June wheat stocks were higher than expected. 

This was the first shoe to drop to change the bearish sentiment. Now, the second shoe will be the hot and dry weather in the coming week. If the the unfavourable conditions are extended during July, $4.00 corn & $10.00 soys are not out of the question, as a summer 2020 top.


Stats Canada 2020 June Acreage- canola, barley, oats & durum acres higher than spring intentions; corn, soybean & spring wheat acres lower.....

Monday, June 29, 2020

... Farmers continue to face their own unique COVID-19 challenges in production & distribution


2020 US Corn Belt Crop Tour #cornbelt20 - Top 3 observations for State of Ohio. Thank You Sponsor @genesisaglife

Monday, June 29, 2020

1. Corn plants much shorter than expected, planted later, very little head high corn by July 1 

2. No crop stress 

3. Large % corn pollination end Jul/early Aug. Rank state 6 out of 10 but lots of potential


USDA June Hogs & Pigs report showed higher than expected total inventory (105%), for breeding (99%) & for marketing (106%)- which mostly ......

Thursday, June 25, 2020

... accounts for the backed-up hogs due to COVID-19? Euthanized pigs & low prices likely caused Jun-Aug & Sept-Nov farrowing of just 95%


China buying big amounts of US & Ukraine corn? 1 MMT likely bought from both. Some say 8-10 cargoes sold from Ukraine's new crop & 10 from U.S. for...

Thursday, June 25, 2020

.... Oct, Nov & Dec. Key is that buying happened! Good News! USDA weekly corn exports report today showed Chinese business!


US considering $3.1 bil in new tariffs on French, German, Spanish, & UK goods- olives, coffee, chocolate, beer, gin, trucks, machinery, etc, due to...

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

.... long-standing dispute with EU over subsidies to large civil aircraft manufacturers


Heat wave caused unusual 100 degrees F in Siberia (one of the coldest places on earth) during June 20-21 as YTD extreme temp anomalies continue.......

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

.... This is the hottest on record anywhere in the Arctic. Heat spots also seen elsewhere close to North Pole


Milk futures V-shaped COVID-19 recovery is +74% in just over 2 months! Could see record prices as rally is yet to catch up to record cheese prices ...

Monday, June 22, 2020

... But with RSI near 80, is this a 2nd opportunity to manage risk?


Rough day in the market as Dow fell ~1,900 points (down 7%)- worst day since March! Crude oil fell almost 10%. & US$ was nearly 1% higher. ....

Thursday, June 11, 2020

.... Selloff was sparked by some concern over an increase in COVID-19 in select 'reopened' US states?


2020 June USDA WASDE crop report friendly vs. expectations for both corn/soybeans but bearish wheat

Thursday, June 11, 2020

In U.S. ending stocks the trade was too heavy projecting corn and new crop soybeans with 20/21 at 395 million bushels a 3 handle. Wheat comes in bigger than expected.

The 19/20 corn crop was reduced bu 46 mbu (including a 10$ cut in North Dakota). Natioanl yield cut to 167.4 (was 167.8). 19/20 corn for ethanol cut by 50 to 4.9 billion bushels. 19/20 exports unchanged at 1.775 bbu, 19/20 feed & residual unchanged at 5.7 billion bushels.

The 202021 U.S. wheat crop is expected to be a bit larger than last year vs. expectations especially for HRW wheat. Total production is seen 2% lighter than last year.

World stocks came in lighter than expected for both corn and soybeans, but new-crop wheat was much larger. Big moves in 20/21 wheat production: Australia 26 mmt (was 24), India 107.2 mmt (was 103), China 136 mmt (was 135), Ukraine 26.5 mmt (was 28), and EU 141 mmt (was 143).

USDA made no changes to the 19/20 corn crops in Argentina and Brazil, but they reduced Argentina’s soybeans to 50 mmt. No change for Brazil soybeans.

Corn up 1, soys down 1 and wheat down 7. Markets focus will now turn to weather and the more market moving reports at the end of the month the June Acreage and stock reports. The missing link is the Chinese demand that remains a "wildcard" and a hot and dry weather forecast that last for 2-4 weeks to spark the funds into a short covering rally.


US Fed June FOMC kept funds rate steady 0%-0.25% & will remain low until '22. COVID-19 poses considerable risks to economy medium-term, .....

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

..... weighing on growth, inflation & jobs. Expect recovery in 2nd half of '20, & GDP bouncing to 5% in '21


CONAB in June raised Brazil's 19/20 soybean crop (on higher yield) to 120.424 MMT (USDA @ 124 MMT) but reduced corn crop (lower yield & ....

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

.... acreage) to 100.99 MMT (USDA @ 101)- due to drop in safrinha corn. Trade expects USDA to reduce both crops in June WASDE


OPEC+ (incl. Russia), on Saturday, agreed to extend record crude oil cuts until the end of July & prolong the deal!

Monday, June 8, 2020

OPEC+ record deal to cut oil outout & reduce global supplies by 10% helped crude futures to +100% rally in last 2 months.


USDA slaughter last week of hogs & cattle is almost back to normal vs last year- great news for the industry! ...

Monday, June 8, 2020

Although YTD is lagging, that can be cleared with aggressive Saturday kills. Last week, Saturday hogs kills at 323,000 was more than 6 times Y/Y.


Are we seeing the seasonal summer grain rally? Seasonal last year was during mid-May when managed money funds were net short 322,215 in corn .....

Friday, June 5, 2020

.... this year, as of early June, funds are net short 282,266. Time to cover them shorts?


Dryness continues in Southern Plains- West Texas with little rainfall. Drought monitor shows drought expanding, supporting HRW wheat & cotton futures

Friday, June 5, 2020

July canola rebounds off $456. Is chart reversing despite Canada-China political tensions? Prairie planting slows due to rain .....

Thursday, June 4, 2020

 Producers in Manitoba are about 88% done planting this year’s crops. Across the province, canola is approximately 85% - 95% planted. However, the southwest and northwest regions are behind that pace.


OPEC's Saudi & non-OPEC Russia have preliminarily agreed to extend existing record crude oil production cuts by 1 month .....

Wednesday, June 3, 2020

.... Date of meeting to finalize deal uncertain. Some feel OPEC+ will extend commitment to reduce oil production by 9.7 mbd during July-Sept.


Stats Canada 2020 June Acreage- canola, barley, oats & durum acres higher than spring intentions;corn, soybeans & spring wheat acres lower.....

Monday, June 1, 2020

.... Farmers continue to face their own unique COVID-19 challenges in production & distribution


China asked state-owned COFCO & Sinograin to halt buying US soybeans & pork as US eliminated special treatment for Hong Kong to punish China.....

Monday, June 1, 2020

 Large volume corn & cotton also put on hold. China bought $3 bil worth of US goods thus far out of a total $36.5.


USDA Cattle on Feed and slaughter data suggest that the trade estimate of 1 mil heads of cattle backed up is as much as 50% overstated?

Friday, May 29, 2020

U.S. cattle got backed up due to COVID-19 packer shutdown.


IGC pegged 20/21 global corn production at 1.169 bil MT, up +11 MMT over prior outlook; wheat production at 766 MMT, up +2 MMT over prior. But ....

Thursday, May 28, 2020

.... a hot & dry summer can alter those plans? 20/21 global corn production increase is led by higher production in US & China.


Iowa Ag dept. announced plans to compensate farmers that must euthanize their hogs because of COVID-19. They requested $24 mil to help farmers.....

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

USDA 24 May 2020: 1st corn condition 70% G-E (2nd lowest in 6 yrs) vs average 73%; emergence 64% vs avg 58%. Need more sunshine ....

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

... after early planting. Corn & soybean planting ahead of avg. Spring wheat planting still behind avg. Winter wheat G-E +2% to 54%


Stocks rally as Dow breaks above key resistance at 25,000 & approaching the 100-day moving average. S&P broke above 3,000. DOW Betting on a vaccine...

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

 Economy reopening & spending increases, but we need to avoid a 2nd wave of COVID-19.


China will work to implement Phase 1 trade deal with US despite COVID-19 setbacks; and will abandon growth target due to uncertainty & boost stimulus

Friday, May 22, 2020

They aim to boost economic & trade cooperation with other countries. 


With 1 week left before June, it does not look like the 2020 spring wheat acres will get planted in the largest state ND. Need dry weather ....

Thursday, May 21, 2020

.... for next few weeks to dry out soils. lt looks like a lot of prevent plant acres in ND.


Kansas Wheat Commission 3-day crop tour by Kansas St Univ estimated north-central Kansas HRW wheat yields at 41.1 bpa and 51.7 bpa in the northwest...

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

..... Variable on Day 1! Drought, freeze damage and stripe rust weigh on the 2020 crop, supporting futures


USDA COVID-19 assistance program CFAP to provide $16 bil in relief to US farmers & ranchers. Farmers to Families Food Box program will purchase .....

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

..... $3 billion in fresh produce, dairy & meat. May 26 onwards, USDA FSA will accept applications from producers who suffered losses.


CFTC net managed money (for week May 12) saw serious buying in oilseeds vs. sell-off in grains (except oats). Funds preferring soybeans vs corn? ...

Friday, May 15, 2020

..... Cattle saw strong fund buying, hogs too but muted.


USDA's May WASDE- US 20/21 new crop maybe the biggest we see for the crop year. IEG Vantage (Informa) is projecting lower acreage for corn, ....

Thursday, May 14, 2020

.... spring wheat & cotton, but soybeans gain. Expect USDA downgrades as we go further into the cropping season? 


2020 USDA MAY Crop Report better than expected corn, bullish soys & bearish wheat but global numbers weighing on corn/wheat

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

USDA sees 2020 U.S. production of corn and soybeans rising substantially over the 2019 levels. USDA ending stock for 2019/20 and 2020/21: Old crop corn well below expectations but soybeans well above. Wheat larger in both years, but new crop soybeans lower than expected. New crop corn right around the trade guess. Trade estimates for U.S. wheat were pretty close to what the USDA reported at a 1.866-billion-bushel crop and the smallest in 3 years.

USDA’s global ending stocks came in much higher than trade expectations for both years for corn and wheat and for old crop soybeans. New crop soybeans were well below expectations even with a new crop at 131 mmt in Brazil. China’s soy consumption seen rising 7.2 mmt in 20/21.

USDA did not touch 2019/20 Argentina or Brazil corn production, but soybeans came down a collective 1.5 mmt. USDA also bumped 2018/19 Brazil soy to 119 mmt from 117 mmt.

5 U.S. Northern States were resurveyed in April due to corn still standing in the fields and it turns out that so far there was not much change in yields or harvested acreage. MI & WI -2 bpa, MN, ND, NC & SD -1 bpa. Net impact was a decline of 0.2 bpa for the U.S. corn yield and dropped the Dec 1 corn stocks only by 17 million bushels!


China announced list of 79 US produced goods that will be exempt from retaliatory import tariffs starting on May 19, 2020 & running thru May 18, 2021

Tuesday, May 12, 2020


USDA Crop Progress, 10 May- Winter wheat at 53% G-E is lowest so far this year. corn at 67% planted & soybeans at 38% ....

Monday, May 11, 2020

..... are behind trade expectations, but above average. Spring wheat at 42% planted, lagging behind average. 


Stats Canada 2020 spring planting intentions sees lower than expected canola acreage and higher wheat acreage. This along with tighter 19/20 stocks...

Thursday, May 7, 2020

.... makes the canola balance-sheet tighter. Good start to the new crop 20/21 marketing year!


North Dakota corn acres were expected to be 3.2 mil this year, off -8.6% Y/Y. But based on current conditions, their season maybe already over?.....

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

.... 2-3 more inches of rains fell recently & more in the forecast. Acres could fall below 1 million? Can't catch a break! 


President Trump's government officials suggest that they won’t seek to punishChina economically if they abide by Phase 1 trade commitments.....

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

.... made in January, despite U.S. allegations that China mishandled the COVID-19 outbreak.


IGC 20/21 world grain production down to 2.218 bil MT, -5 MMT vs March on global dry conditions. wheat down -0.5% to 764.4 MMT, corn +1 MMT to......

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

..... 1.158 bil MT, soybeans -0.4% to 364.4 MMT. Lower COVID-19 demand raise global grain stocks +1.9% to 616.5 MMT.


USDA as of May 3rd reported strong 2020 US planting! Soybeans at record 23% planted for this date. Corn +23 wk/wk to 51%, .....

Monday, May 4, 2020

.... which is up +30% Y/Y & +12% vs average.  Winter wheat 55% G-E, improved +1% wk/wk.


U.S. pork exports are on fire! So far in 2020, April saw the two highest weekly figures for US total pork sales and sales to China. .....

Thursday, April 30, 2020

... U.S. total pork sales to all countries at 1,044,44 MT is up +58% over last year! Will geopolitics derail this?


DOW jumps 500+ points as US top doctor Dr. Fauci said drug remdesivir shows clear-cut positive effect when treating COVID-19 ...

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

... This is despite US Q1 GDP dropping -4.8%, vs expected -3.5%. Also, US Fed pledges to keep interest rates low until full employment and inflation returns.


US weekly ethanol production fell another -4.6% to 537,000 bbl/day rate, but fall is slowing? Positive signs as stocks fall -4.9% off record-high....

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

According to EIA's weekly report on 29th April, dropping production & rising demand caused stocks to fall -4.9% off record-high to 1.105 bil gallons.Ethanol futures recover from bottom.


CFTC corn- trade est. for net short as of April 28 are -215,000, 2nd most net short for this time period; 2nd only to last year's record -322,215! ...

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

... CFTC corn net short according to the latest COT report is at -161,057 as of April 21.


USDA Crop Progress, April 26th- corn planting accelerates +20 wk/wk to 27% as Midwest farmers try to get max seed in the ground, keeping 2019's ......

Monday, April 27, 2020

..... wet fiasco in mind. Soybeans 8% planted, +6 wk/wk. Spring wheat 14% planted,+7 wk/wk. Winter wheat G-E deteriorates -3 to 54% G-E.


USDA pork belly values put in a V-shaped recovery, along with cutouts? An indicator that demand will return? 2H-2020 should be better than 1H-2020 ...

Friday, April 24, 2020

..... when the economy, & restaurants/food service, reopens gradually and carefully post-COVID? 


Priority #1 should be to get the still-imposed 25% Chinese tariff on U.S. pork removed & double exports to China!

Thursday, April 23, 2020

Even with a U.S./China trade deal commitment, US still has a 25% tariff on Chinese metals & China still has a 25% duty on U.S. pork.....


China preparing to buy 30 MMT of US Ag for state-held reserves. 20 MMT (787 mil bu) corn, 10 MMT (387 mil bu) soybeans, 1 MMT cotton. ...

Thursday, April 23, 2020

This more than offsets the loss in US ethanol demand of 600 mil bu! Now we need to reopen economy & get people driving & flying again!


Similar to pork, US beef cutouts soar. Near-term cattle futures low likely in, supporting V-shaped recovery? ...

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

... COVID-19 shut down processing plant capacity (10-20%), which lowers cattle slaughter, in turn reducing beef availability and raised beef prices. Cattle futures discount to cash is supportive. 


US pork cutout surge higher from COVID19 pressure- up +$24.15 since 15th April to $72.98 on 22nd April. This should encourage higher hog slaughter ...

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

.... at functioning packers and offset packing capacity loss (10%) due to closures. Demand continues to support pork prices.


USDA crop progress, April 19th: corn 7% planted, -2% vs. avg, soybeans 2% planted & winter wheat G-E fell -5% to 57%. More fuel for the wheat rally!

Monday, April 20, 2020

...Spring wheat planting lags. Could add to wheat's rally.


Crude oil drops to a record low below 0 at -$7.50 a barrel as a slump in demand & 0 storage space making it worthless.....

Monday, April 20, 2020

.... Maybe we should store crude oil in storage bins instead of of corn?


Wheat futures soar up .24 as Russia will suspend exports until July 1st when Q2 export quota is exhausted by mid-May

Monday, April 20, 2020

2020 Russian wheat crop pegged 77.2 MMT, off -2.4 MMT vs previous est.

It opens the door for higher U.S. & Canadian wheat demand.

Ukraine also threatening to ban exports if pace too high! Limit up on wheat futures is $0.55/bu.

The last time Russia banned wheat exports in 2010 wheat soared to $9-11/bu!

Add some dry weather in the coming months and smaller Black Sea wheat production and you have recipe for higher futures to ration demand most likely above the mid-Jan high and finally above $6.00/bu!


Dow stock index continues recovery for 4th consecutive week, closing above key weekly resistance & above 24,000. It opened gap up .,.

Friday, April 17, 2020

.... & the climb is +6,073 since low on 23rd March. Supported by positive COVID-19 drug trial 'news' & Trump's plans to re-open US economy.


A Chicago hospital treating COVID-19 patients with Remdesivir in a trial were recovering rapidly from severe symptoms. DOW futures rally 900 points...

Thursday, April 16, 2020

... after report says drug showing effectiveness against coronavirus.


USDA lowers US corn ethanol usage in April WASDE, ending stocks rise. Will this be the steepest reduction on account of COVID-19? ...

Thursday, April 9, 2020

....  By the time demand returns, more than 50% of US 200 ethanol plants may be idled/shutdown? Market attention turns to weather & seasonality.


CORN 2.092 2.000 1.892
SOYBEANS 0.480 0.425 0.425
WHEAT 0.970 0.940 0.940

Source: USDA, QTPlus


China Ag ministry raised 19/20 corn import forecast +1 MMT to 4 MMT (USDA still at 7 MMT), on increase in shipments due to Phase 1 Trade Deal. ...

Thursday, April 9, 2020

.... & lowered 19/20 industrial use by -2 MMT to 82.5 MMT, due to lower oil prices & slowing economy.


EIA weekly ethanol output fell another -20% to record low levels, 672,000 bbl/day yields just 197 mil gallons ethanol weekly, ...

Thursday, April 9, 2020

.... consuming 68 mil bu feedstock. Blending collapses. Inventories up +5.3% wk/wk to 1.14 billion gallons, also record! Demand destruction in corn.


Crude oil jumps +12% as Saudi & Russia have removed obstacles to their agreement with a new oil deal to deepen cuts as much as 20 mil barrels per day.

Thursday, April 9, 2020

... Global demand has fallen as much as 30 mbd! U.S. gasoline demand is down over 51%!


USDA weekly (Apr 2) export sales- blowout corn at 2.458 MMT. China bought 504,000 MT new crop corn, ...

Thursday, April 9, 2020

.... 186,000 MT sorghum, 144,000 MT old crop & 66,000 MT new crop soys, 38,700 MT pork & shipments of 16,300 MT pork.


Modello Group part of the brewing giant AB Inbev will shutter production of corona beer as the Mexican government deems the operation non essential!

Tuesday, April 7, 2020

...Lime demand set to plummet!


Saudi & Russia are close to deal on crude oil output cuts to reduce global glut. G20 nations including the U.S. may need to follow suit? ...

Monday, April 6, 2020

....Global oil demand plunged over 30 mil barrels per day equivalent for daily output of Russia, Saudi Arabia & U.S. combined.


U.S. EIA weekly ethanol production fell a record 17% wk/wk to 840K bbl/day, i.e. 247 mil gallons weekly consuming 86 mil bu of feedstock. Stocks rose

Friday, April 3, 2020

....+6.5% wk/wk to 1.08 bil gallons, a record! Crude oil recovery doesn't help demand but could put bottom for futures.


Crude oil soared +34% to today’s high for best day on record as Trump said Russia-Saudi o/p truce likely; & China to buy upto +100 mil barrels in '20?

Thursday, April 2, 2020

USDA stuns the market, reporting 2020 U.S. corn acres up +8% to 97 million acres!

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

The USDA/NASS farmer survey stunned the market with intended U.S. corn plantings of 96.99 million acres, up 8% on the year and up 3% from trade estimates. The high in the trade range was 97. Corn acres are set to rise over last year in every major state except Kansas, North Dakota, and Kentucky.

All U.S. wheat plantings came in lower than trade estimates at 44.66 vs. expected at 44.98 and total 2020 U.S. soybeans coming in at 83.810 vs. expected at 84.87 million acres.

Quarterly grain stocks report for corn was better at 7.953 seeing some disappearance during the quarter while soybeans slightly higher at 2.253 and wheat also slightly lower at 1.142 billion bushels. Cotton acres surprised at 13.700 up 1 million vs. pre-report estimates at 12.700.


Ontario farmers plan on planting record corn acres in 2020 at 2,380,146 million acres according to a Risk Management survey!

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Canola futures soar on reports that China will resume buying from Canada. $2 billion worth of trade comes back to life?....

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

.... During COVID-19, China’s oilseed processors struggle with the lowest soybean stocks since 2010?


Major wheat exporters Ukraine & Russia stocks-to-use ratio at multi-year lows & falling. Global wheat prices soar. ....

Monday, March 30, 2020

... Russia mulling over limiting Russian grain exports to 7 mmt in April-June. UN FAO warning of possible global food shortage if COVID-19 extends for long. 


1 mil unharvested 19/20 canola acres left in Manitoba & Saskatchewan will not be harvested & will be just burned down. ........

Friday, March 27, 2020

.....It will amount to a small dent of approx 40 mil bushels, but nonetheless tightens the beginning stocks for 20/21, when we are already reducing acreage.


In next week's USDA planting intentions report, trade 20/21 U.S. corn acreage to be higher than USDA's Feb outlook numbers; soybeans....

Thursday, March 26, 2020

...... to be lower & wheat to be similar. The new crop soybean/corn ratio is at 2.394, marginally favouring more corn?


Data shows air pollution increasing in China post lockdown- nitrogen dioxide levels are rising as the economy is slowly getting back on track....

Thursday, March 26, 2020

.....Besides the reality that the pollution issue is resurfacing, a silver lining could be that the economy is slowly getting back on its feet?


COVID19 took 67 days from first reported to reach 100,000 cases, 11 days for 2nd 100K, 4 days for 3rd 100K & just 3 days for 4th 100K! ....

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

WHO said its possible to change the trajectory by continuing rigorous testing & contact-tracing. What matters most is what we do now!


Sharply lower ethanol demand will reduce the supply of DDG, for export to China. This will increase demand for soybean meal, futures spiking......

Monday, March 23, 2020

... Chinese feed demand is rebuilding following their own coronavirus disruption and supplies on hand have grown tight in the north.


We may be looking at a 4-5 MMT drop in the 19/20 South American corn crop & a 9-10 MMT drop in soybean crop, due to dry weather ........

Friday, March 20, 2020

.....Dry weather in South America has wiped away the previously expected record production numbers.


Concerns over persistent dryness in key US wheat regions & ideas that COVID-19 will lead to rolling back of trade tariffs limited pressure on wheat...

Thursday, March 19, 2020

.... EU & UK SRW wheat production forecasts were lowered & rumors China is buying US Ag?


2020 USDA Feb. Crop Report a dud with no big surprises and mostly neutral BUT ....

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

USDA did increase the 19/20 Brazil soybean crop to a massive record 125 mmt from 123 last month. Global ending stocks for corn was lower than January but soybeans were up 2 mmt and wheat slightly lower.

USDA reduced U.S. 2019/20 ending stocks for wheat and soybeans (increase in exports for both), while corn stocks stayed the same at 1,892 billion bushels (reduction in exports offset by increase in use for ethanol). Production for all was left unchanged.


Crude oil prices could plunge even further after last weeks OPEC meeting Russia refused to cut production further

Monday, February 10, 2020

Higher to record U.S. shale production and oil demand destruction from coronavirus fears has led crude oil prices to plunge over $15/barrel thus far in 2020 and is on target to fall even further and test the $45 - $46 support level not seen since December of 2018!

As the world’s largest oil consumer, a slowdown in China’s economy suddenly has a real potential of impacting oi demand growth by as much as 20% in the 1st quarter but could be short-lived as flu season peaks and comes to an end as temps start tow warm up. OPEC now has to contend with U.S. shale growth and a short-term impact on demand.

 At last weeks emergency meeting OPED had hoped to cut production by an additional 600,000 bpd but Russia refused to participate ahead of next meeting in March.


U.S pork belly values' rocky start to 2020 continues. It is trying to put together a comeback, which will in turn support pork cutouts? ...

Friday, February 7, 2020

... Strong domestic demand for flavourful meat & exports remain the key!


Palm oil futures are trying to consolidate & attempt a comeback, trying to break above resistance. Stronger palm oil will support canola futures, ...

Friday, February 7, 2020

.... on its own recovery climb higher.


Stats Canada grain stocks report for Dec. 31, 2019, surprised on canola, oats & barley to the downside, but higher on all wheat stocks. ...

Wednesday, February 5, 2020

.... There are still unharvested acres in Western Canada, hence ending stocks could fall further in future reports? 


After 60 days of waiting for Jan USDA reports, what a disappointment but 19/20 U.S. corn ending stocks are trending lower...

Monday, January 13, 2020

.... - 165 days of supply, Feb. should be lower after lower Quarterly stocks & global stocks down for 4th year - 34 days of supply - a 19-year low!


China's Vice-Premier Liu He to bring a trade delegation to Washington this week & expected to sign a phase 1 trade deal....

Monday, December 30, 2019

Deal details expected to be released then- expectations for significant Ag purchase ($40-$50 bil/year for the next 2 yrs?)


China's Finance Ministry said they will lower import tariffs on over 850 products starting from January 1, 2020

Monday, December 23, 2019

The removal will cover frozen pork and avocados, and some IT products 


2019 USDA Nov. crop report friendly corn and wheat vs. expectations, disappointing soybeans

Friday, November 8, 2019

As part of the snowfall in early October, USDA says that the resurvey in North Dakota and Minnesota did not suggest any changes to harvested area at this time so both corn and soybean harvested acres were left unchanged.

Soybean 19/20 ending stocks were up 15 million to 475 and worse than expected at 430. Yields and exports were left unchanged, crush down 15 million.

U.S. 19/20 corn ending stocks lower than last month down 19 million bushels but higher than expected at 1.820. Corn exports down 50, ethanol/feed & residual both down 25 each. U.S. corn yields drop 1.4 bpa to 167 vs. last month at 168.4.

All wheat 19/20 ending stocks down 29 million bushels vs. last month at 1,014 billion bushels with spring wheat production down 37 million. Seed down 7, food down 5 and yields up 0.1 to 51.7. 

World corn stocks for 19/20 come in well below trade expectations. Looks like a drop in the U.S. and a few reductions elsewhere. Soybeans and wheat up slightly from October.


China and the U.S. has agreed to cancel existing trade tariffs in phases

Thursday, November 7, 2019

Fresh hopes that a "Phase 1" trade deal will be signed in early December sent stock and commodity markets higher to start the day.

The proportion of tariffs on each side will be cancelled together; it is unclear if soybeans will find relief. There are indications that US poultry may be allowed into China for the first time since 2015.

The Trump administration has been putting increasing pressure on Beijing to curb massive subsidies to state-owned companies and stop the forced transfer of American technology to Chinese firms.

Analysts remain skeptical that a “phase one” trade deal will effectively tackle these issues, suggesting the two economic giants will need a more comprehensive agreement before market sentiment can be boosted sustainably.


Canada's Pork Council reports that issues that plagued pork exports to China have been resolved

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Expects more detailed information from the Canadian government soon.


USDA 2019 October Crop Report a bullish surprise for soybeans, bearish corn and wheat vs. expectations

Thursday, October 10, 2019

U.S. production is lower than in September, but by less than expected for corn and more than expected for soybeans. The 2019 US corn yield comes in at 168.4 market expected 167.5 last month 168.2 while soybean yields were dropped to 46.9 vs. last month at 47.9 and expected at 47.3.

USDA lowers 2019/20 ending stocks for U.S. corn at 1.962 billion but it much higher than expected but much lower for soybeans at 460 (game changing if we can get an interim or mini China/US trade deal this weekend) and an increase for wheat at 1.043 billion bushels. 

USDA lowers 2019/20 ending stocks for U.S. corn and soybeans, but makes an increase for wheat.

USDA cut 2019/20 world stocks for corn and soybeans but increased the supply of wheat.


USDA confirms largest US pork sale EVER to China in the week ended Oct. 3 at were largest EVER at 142,172 mt!

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Pork prices in China have soared over 139% in 2019.


According to Reuters , a US Chamber of Commerce official suggested potential for currency agreement in exchange for delay tariff increases

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Reports are the Chinese delegation is leaving early, but with continued Chinese ag purchases?


Financial Times- China offering to increase U.S. Ag purchases, soybean purchases up to 30 MMT from current 20 MMT,....

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

.... to ensure an interim trade agreement. Short-term bullish soybeans. "The extra purchases would be equivalent to about $3.25bn of orders at current rates."


U.S. 'giant' biofuel package- EPA to reallocate small-refiner-exempted (SRE) gallons & get corn ethanol mandates back to min. 15 bil gallons;.........

Monday, October 7, 2019

..... gov't to fund infrastructure & streamline policy for existing pumps to better-support E-15. Original RFS back on track?


Reuters- Sources suggest the White House is nearing a finalized biofuel agreement, hoping to get it signed by the end of this week and ......

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

2019 USDA September Stocks and Small Grains reports a bullish surprise for corn, soys but neutral wheat.

Monday, September 30, 2019

Both corn and soy stocks came in below the lowest trade estimates. USDA reduced the 2018 soybean harvest by 116 million bushels and yield came down by 1 bpa. Final U.S. wheat production comes in just short of the guess at 1.962 billion bushels but NASS will resurvey several states in the coming weeks as a significant portion of the spring grain harvest was incomplete. Those results will be shown in the Nov. 8 crop production report.  This provides great momentum trend change higher as we head into the 2019 USDA October crop report on Oct. 10, 2019.  

Corn up 10, soys up 18, Canola up 6, Chicago wheat up 3, KC up 5, MN up 3, cotton -.09


In a gesture of goodwill ahead of trade talks in October, China will lift punitive tariffs on US soybean and US pork....

Friday, September 13, 2019

USDA reported private sale of 204,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2019/2020 marketing year out of a possible 600,000 mt rumored. Look for more announcements on Monday. 

After gapping higher $3.00/cwt limit yesterday on hog futures 2019 December futures is limit up $4.50 and is offered synthetically at $70.70, $2.00 over expanded limits!


USDA Sept 2019 WASDE, 19/20 U.S. corn (168.2 bpa) & soybean (47.9) yields lower than Aug, but above trade guess. Report was market-friendly.....

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Corn yield came in at 168.2 bpa vs. 169.5 in Aug & 167.2 expected. soybean yield came in at 47.9 bpa vs. 48.5 Aug. & 47.2 expected. Acreages were unchanged. 

19/20 U.S. ending stocks for soybeans come in below trade guesses on increased old-crop exports and a smaller harvest. Corn came in a little higher, as old-crop exports were reduced. New-crop corn and bean exports unchanged. Wheat came in as expected, exports unchanged. 
19/20 U.S. ending stocks for soybeans come in below trade guesses on increased old-crop exports and a smaller harvest. Corn came in a little higher, as old-crop exports were reduced. New-crop corn and bean exports unchanged. Wheat came in as expected, exports unchanged. 

U.S. corn ear populations are the lowest since at least 2012. Implied ear weight is lowest since 2015, well above 2013, and looks like just above 2014. Below the past three years, though. 

USDA NASS objective yield survey for U.S. soybeans found the fewest pods since at least 2012, but massively large implied pod weights.

18/19 old-crop world ending stocks for corn and wheat increased from August while soybeans decreased. Corn and beans down from Aug in 19/20 but wheat up.


USDA reported as of Sept 4 2019 US corn prevent plant acres at 11.414 (prev 11.211); US soybean prevent plant acres at 4.460 (prev 4.351);......

Thursday, September 12, 2019

 and US wheat prevent plant acres at 2.215 (prev 2.209).


2019 4th Annual Great ON Yield Tour Final yield results - Corn is 173.2 bpa & soybeans at 43.6 bpa!

Thursday, August 29, 2019

2019 4th Annual Great ON Yield Tour Final yield results were released at Western Final Wrap Up Event, COFS, Woodstock, Canada, on August 29th, 2019. Corn 173.2 bpa & soybeans at 43.6 bpa! Both down from last year's record highs. Corn still above OMAFRA (Stats Canada) 5-year high at 164.6 & soybeans below 5-year avg 46.8.


2019 Pro Farmer tour, avg 2019 U.S. Corn yield at 163.3 bpa vs. USDA at 169.5 bpa; Soybeans avg U.S. yield at 46.1 bpa vs. USDA at 48.5 bpa...

Friday, August 23, 2019

2019 Pro Farmer tour pegged average 2019 US Corn yields at 163.3 bpa, that compares to the USDA estimate at 169.5 bpa; 2019 Production is forecast by the tour at 13.358 billion bushels that compares to the USDA forecast at 13.901 bln bu. Soybeans 3.497 billion bu vs. USDA at 3.68 bil bu, yield 46.1 bpa vs. USDA at 48.5 bpa.

Minnesota Corn yield at 170.3 bpa. vs. 178.6 last year and compares to the August USDA estimate of 173.0 bpa. Minnesota Soybean pod count came in at 965.3 vs. 1,090.4 last year and compares to the three year avg. of 1,072.6. Iowa Corn yield was estimated at 182.8 bpa. vs. 188.2 last year and compares to the August USDA estimate of 191.0 bpa.  Iowa Soybean count 1,106.9 vs. 1,208.9 last year and the three year average of 1,175.4.   


2019 ProFarmer Midwest Crop Tour, Day 3, IL & west IA, highlight a down year with lots of immature crop that is racing the clock to make it home...

Thursday, August 22, 2019

The 2019 Pro Farmer crop tour yield reports haven’t uncovered any disasters yet but highlight a down year with lots of immature crop that is racing the clock to make it home.  Soybean pod counts were down from year ago levels and the 3 year average but those counts have the potential still to increase with favorable weather before waning daylight hours shut development down.


2019 ProFarmer Midwest Crop Tour, Day 2, IN & NE, there are issues & yields are lower than USDA's, but no disaster yet....

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

2019 ProFarmer Midwest Crop Tour has first-hand reports of variability, prevent plant and immaturity. State-by-state yield projections from the tour continue to suggest issues but no disaster yet. Scouts were in the key "I" states today


2019 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour, Day 1 results, OH & SD corn yield lower vs. '18 tour & '19 USDA Aug WASDE....

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Soybean pod counts too, after day 1, were lower Y/Y & vs. 3 Yr. Avg. Because of the specific routes taken by the Pro Farmer crop scouts and their methodology their numbers are best analyzed relative to past crop tour averages rather than compared directly to the USDA estimates. 


DTN Digital Crop Tour forecast corn yield at 163.2 bpa vs. USDA at 169.4 & soys at 44.2 4.3 lower than the USDA

Sunday, August 18, 2019

DTN Digital Crop Tour in IL, IN & OH is forecasting lower corn and soybean yields that are 8 -16% lower than the USDA August crop report. 

Gro’s models for corn show a statewide average of 182 bushels per acre in Nebraska and 149 bpa in South Dakota. USDA pegged those states at 186 bpa and 157 bpa, respectively.

Gro forecasts Nebraska soybean growers will harvest 56 bpa compared to USDA’s 58 bpa estimate, while South Dakota farmers will harvest 37 bpa compared to USDA’s 45 bpa estimate.
Gro forecasts Nebraska soybean growers will harvest 56 bpa compared to USDA’s 58 bpa estimate, while South Dakota farmers will harvest 37 bpa compared to USDA’s 45 bpa estimate.


A large fire at Tyson beef packing plant Garden City, KS processed 6,000 head/day will be shut down. Cattle weights up, cash lower, futures limit down

Monday, August 12, 2019

USDA August Crop Report bearish corn, bullish soybeans neutral wheat

Monday, August 12, 2019

USDA reported more than expected 2019 corn planted, harvested, yields and ending stocks but lower than expected planted, harvested and ending stocks in soybeans. This was a corn report. 2019/20 corn ending stocks up 171 million bushels vs. last month to 2,181 billion bushels. Corn limit down 25, soybeans down 13 and wheat down 25.

U.S. farmers reported record numbers of prevented acres for corn (at 11.21 mil acres) and soybeans (4.35 mil acres), but it was well off record for wheat (at 2.21 mil acres). Total prevent acres over all the crops total 19.3 million.


USDA’s June hogs & pigs report the U.S. hog inventory expanding a bit more than trade expected and neutral to bearish, but futures priced it in?

Thursday, June 27, 2019

futures might have it all priced in after the plunge in the past month! The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report posted an increase of 4% in all inventory on June 1. Overall inventory levels increased 1% from March 1, as year-to-year growth in the hog herd continues to be consistent with previous plans. The 69.1 million head of market hog inventory is the largest June 1 total since estimates began in 1964, leaving concern that additional growth will continue over the near future. Even though farrowing intentions are down slightly from a year ago, numbers are 3% above 2017 levels, creating expectations of continued large supplies through the near future.


Stats Canada acreage June 2019 report showed Canola acres at 20.952 vs. 20.7 expected. Wheat acreage lower than expected, spring wheat 18.772 mil ....

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Stats Can acreage June 2019 report showed Canola acres at 20.952 vs. 20.7 expected and 22.7 last year. Wheat acreage estimates were lower than expectations. Spring wheat acreage was pegged at 18.772 mil acres. Durum wheat acreage was expected to be a little larger than the Spring's intention number of 5.02 mil, but it actually came in a bit lower at 4.894 mil. All wheat acres for 2019 was expected to come in higher than the Spring intentions number of 24.8 mil. Average guess was around 25.7 mil (around 1 mil higher than last year's 24.7345 mil). Not only did it come in lower than expectations, it came in below last year as Stats Can pegged All wheat acres for 2019 at 24.595 mil.


China will block all meat products shipped from Canada & is the 3rd largest market for Canadian pork. China said........

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

 ....... investigation surrounding feed additive ractopamine in Canadian meat shipments turned up 188 inauthentic veterinary health certificates.


U.S. Crop Conditions, as of 23rd June, 2019, Fall due to Wet Conditions, 12.7 Million U.S. Soybean Acres Left to Plant!

Monday, June 24, 2019


Trump has directed members of his cabinet to review the administrations expanded use of waivers exempting small refiners from the nations biofuel.....

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Bullish 2019 June USDA WASDE: 19/20 US Corn yield down -10 bpa vs. last month to 166 bpa; corn acreage off -3 mil acres to 89.8 mil acres, ...........

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

19/20 US corn ending stocks off 0.81 bil bu vs. May to 1.675 bil bu. 

18/19 & 19/20 US soybean crops see ending stocks breaking above 1 bil bu, but many doubt those figures as USDA is yet to bake in the current US cropping struggles in the US soybeans balance-sheet. 


According to NASA the U.S. has had the wettest 12 months in 124 years of modern record-keeping

Thursday, May 30, 2019