U.S. Sept. 1 corn stocks totaled 2.095 billion bushels, exceeding all trade estimates of 1.843-2.005 billion bushels and well above the 1.918-billion-bushel average estimate. In contrast, soybean stocks came in at 315 million bushels and wheat stocks at 1.846 billion bushels, both below average trade expectations.

 Following the Sept. 1 stocks survey, USDA lowered the 2025 U.S. corn crop by 57 million bushels due to reduced acreage, while yield estimates were left unchanged. Sept. 1 corn stocks have historically been tricky to forecast, falling outside the range of pre-report trade estimates in 7 of the past 10 years. This year's corn stocks were 177 million bushels above the trade average and 90 million bushels higher than the most bullish estimate.

The U.S. farmers harvested 1.534 billion bushels of wheat in 2026, the smallest crop since 1970, according to USDA, though production came in above trade expectations. Winter wheat output totaled 1.019 billion bushels, exceeding all pre-report estimates, but still marking the lowest winter wheat crop since 1965. Meanwhile, spring wheat production was 450 million bushels, falling below all trade estimates and reaching a 5-year low.