2025 Farms.com Risk Management 11th Annual
Ontario Planting Intentions Survey Results
Congratulations to the Winners of the Random Draw Prizes!
As our way of saying thank you for completing the Farms.com Risk Management Planting Intentions Survey, three survey participants were chosen at random to win prizes.
Congratulations to the following winners of Tim Horton's Gift Cards!
- $300 - Earl B, Huron
- $200 - Brent M, Chatham-Kent
- $100 - Jeff T, Bruc
Farmers in Ontario intend to plant MORE corn acres in 2025 Y/Y vs. other crops
Ontario farmers intend to plant 2.242 million corn acres in 2025, which is up by 4% vs. last year, according to the 2025 11th annual Farms.com Risk Management Ontario farmer survey (conducted January 7th - March 14th, 2025).
The survey is projecting that Ontario (ON) farmers intend to plant 6.304 million acres of corn, soybeans and all wheat combined this year, which is down by 0.98% (or 80,945 acres) versus 2024. Stats Canada, on the other hand, is only down by 0.3% Y/Y (or down 18,700 acres).
Intended Ontario corn acres in 2025 are expected to be up 1.1% vs. the 5-year average at 2.217 million acres but soybean acres are expected to come down 1.1% vs. the 5-year average. Economics and lower soybean prices are moving soybean acres to corn in 2025. Moe Agostino, Chief Commodity Strategist at Farms.com Risk Management, says that “better than expected corn yields in 2024, with another record final corn yield in Ontario at 204 despite a challenging planting and growing season, and a perfect finish may have helped add acres to corn in 2025.”
Wheat acres are up by 4.4% Y/Y (or 48,456 acres) from 2024, but this survey does not show acres to be as big as that from Stats Canada but still down 3.52% vs. the 5-year average. Moe goes on to say that “wheat acres are up because the weather last fall permitted farmers to plant more acres. However, attaining good prices has been a challenge.”
The 2025 Farms.com Risk Management Ontario planting intentions survey is projecting less corn, more soybeans, and less wheat acres than Stats Canada.
The highlights from the survey include canola acres being down 7% Y/Y (but very small in comparison to what Western Canada grows), HRS wheat down 57%, SWW wheat down 17.8%, HRW wheat down 9.7%, SRW wheat up 15%, and IP soybeans down 1.86% (lower premiums in 2025 not helping).
Southwestern Ontario farmers plan on planting more corn and wheat acres vs. soybeans. Western Ontario is planning on less soybeans and switching more to wheat. Central Ontario is planning on more soybeans and wheat while corn acreage is expected to be steady vs. last year. Eastern Ontario is aiming for more corn, less soybeans, and more wheat. In the North, acreage expectation is for less of everything but the data/survey from that part of ON was light (which is one key reason why this survey may have fewer acres than Stats Canada).
Stephen Denys, Director of Business Management at Maizex Seeds, agrees that it may not be an early planting season and if it turns wet, the heavy clay regions in Ontario will switch to more soybean acres and the month of May looks to be wet.” The average planting time in Ontario is from the end-of-April to the first half of May.
Worries over U.S. tariffs and higher input costs for corn could cap corn acres in 2025
According to Henry Prinzen, Chief Agronomist for Maizex Seeds, lower premiums on IP soybeans vs. last year and growing concerns over higher input costs for corn (farmers are doing a poor job of managing their input risk as they could have booked 28% nitrogen last fall at $350 - $360/ton vs. today at $500 - $540/ton and could get slapped with a tariff in April from the U.S.) may lead to farmers switching to more soybean acres by the time the 2025 planting season is over.
Peter Johnson (aka Wheat Pete) says that “the survey is spot on with total wheat acres in Ontario (similar to the Agricorp numbers at around 1.1 million acres) and the wheat crop looks good and big, especially in Lambton County. But we do have some problems areas. Wheat in the North is damaged by snow mold and the rye crop has been lost some of the worst he has seen in many years. Parts of Essex County have also been hit with water damage in the form of snow rot, but it could still recover but remains questionable. The further North you travel, the more snow rot you find.”
A dry early planting season could see more corn acres get planted but above average U.S. corn acres at 96+ million in 2025 could derail the chance for higher prices
It does not look like an early Ontario planting season according to the weather as the forecast looks wet. The dry weather pattern this winter has improved in the U.S. Midwest and a weak ENSO or neutral/weak La Nina weather pattern could provide a normal growing season, but it’s still early. Seasonally, prices tend to rise from now until the Father’s Day weekend, but an escalating U.S. global trade war may have thrown a wrench in the party, and it could cause a lingering hangover. The USDA January 2025 crop report provided a gift to farmers as it fueled a grain rally, and farmers should have rewarded the price spike in February. The February high in futures may have been the high for the year as the U.S. global trade war escalates!
The acreage estimates in this report are based primarily on surveys conducted during January – March 2025. The 2025 Farms.com Risk Management Planting Intentions Survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of farmers from across Ontario. This survey used to make acreage estimates is subject to sampling and non-sampling errors that are common to all surveys. Sampling errors represent the variability between estimates that would result if many different samples were surveyed at the same time. Sampling errors for major crops are generally between 1.0 – 3.0% but they cannot be applied directly to the acreage published in this report to determine confidence intervals because the official estimates represent a composite of information from more than a single source.