2026 Farms.com Risk Management 12th Annual
Ontario Planting Intentions Survey Results
Congratulations to the Winners of the Random Draw Prizes!
As our way of saying thank you for completing the Farms.com Risk Management Planting Intentions Survey, three survey participants were chosen at random to win prizes.
Congratulations to the following winners of Tim Horton's Gift Cards!
- $300 - John D, Middlesex
- $200 - David S, Lambton
- $100 - Douglas C, Leeds & Grenville
Farmers in Ontario intend to plant MORE soybean acres in 2026 Y/Y vs. other crops
Ontario farmers intend to plant 2.99 million soybean acres in 2026, which is up by 3.6% vs. last year (corn was +4.0% in our 2025 survey), according to the 2026 12th annual Farms.com Risk Management Ontario farmer survey (conducted January 12th - March 13th, 2026).
The survey is projecting that Ontario (ON) farmers intend to plant 6.412 million acres of corn, soybeans and all wheat combined this year, which is up by 1.9% (or 119,148 acres) versus 2025. Stats Canada is at 2.9 million soybeans 2.3 corn and 1.17 all wheat for a total of 6.37 million acres.
Intended Ontario corn acres in 2026 are expected to be up 0.9% vs. the 5-year average at 2.2 million acres with soybean acres up 104.441 near 3 million above the 5-year average at 2.9 million. An eastern drought in 2025, higher fertilizer costs and economics for the smaller farmer not set up to grow corn (elevator with dryer) is growing more soybean acres in 2026. Moe Agostino, Chief Commodity Strategist at Farms.com Risk Management, says that “the better-than-expected corn yields in 2025 in SW Ontario (Chatham-Kent County) with another above average/record final corn crop in 2025 has farmers planting more corn acres in 2026 despite higher fertilizer costs. It’s regional more corn acres in the South while less in the East but the larger acres are in the South, so we are still seeing some growth in corn acres in 2026 vs. 2025.”
Wheat acres are flat -0.4% Y/Y at 1.203 (or 4,471 acres) lower from 2025 vs. the 5-year average at 1.01 million. Moe goes on to say that “weather last fall was ideal, and it allowed the farmer to plant wheat acres despite the lower prices that have since come back to life and the farmer is starting to make money again with flat prices above $8.00/bu.”
The 2026 Farms.com Risk Management Ontario planting intentions survey is projecting more corn and soybeans, and less wheat acres similar to Stats Canada.
The highlights from the survey include canola acres being up 17.07% Y/Y but total acres remain very small. HRS and SWW wheat are down 20% and 36.76% respectively. IP soybeans were up 7% making up 35% of the total soybean acres for 2026.
Southwestern Ontario farmers plan on planting more corn and soybeans and less wheat. Western Ontario is planning more corn, less soybeans and more wheat. Central ON is planning many more acres into soybeans in comparison to corn and wheat. Eastern ON is planning slightly more corn, slightly less soybeans and more wheat. Northern Ontario is planting more wheat vs. corn and soybeans.
Aaron Breimer, Agronomist, Moose Ag is saying “IP soybean acres (up 7% in our survey) are cannibalizing roundup ready soybean acres and edibles. It’s going to be tough to justify corn acres in heavy clay areas like Niagara with higher fertilizer prices unless you can pencil in 200+ bushels of corn with certainty. Very few acres have switched thus far but Mother Nature will have the final say and by mid-May if weather is less than ideal more soybean acres will get planted. For the most part the large farmer has secured their fertilizer needs but it is the smaller farmer 600 – 700 acres or less that has not.”.
Peter Johnson (aka Wheat Pete) says “I am seeing as time goes on more farmers as they get older a trend to a more soybean on wheat rotation in the heavy clay regions. Weather in the 1st week of May will dictate acres and farmers in Lambton and Essex County will plant more soybean acres if the weather and conditions are not ideal.”
According to Paul Sullivan, Sullivan Agro, “cash flow has been a challenge in Eastern Ontario after last year’s drought, so fertilizer and higher prices of fuel are a hot topic. For the most part farmers will stick to a rotation but corn and wheat acres are down soybeans up.”
Planting vs. actual acres planted could differ by June/July of 2026 in Ontario
Weather is expected to remain cold in the first week of May and less than ideal for planting but that still is 1 month away. SW and eastern Ontario remains in moderate drought but midwestern Ontario drought has been reduced after February precipitation.
Despite higher global fertilizer prices with U.S. Gulf FOB urea prices up 70% since the start of 2026 and 28% nitrogen in Ontario up $80/ton ($550 before the Iran war now $630+) corn futures have traded 50 cents higher to offset some of that increase. The ratio of affordability is record high vs. 2022 when fertilizer prices were much higher because farmers are spending more money on fertilizer to make a bushel of corn from much lower corn prices. Availability of fertilizer supplies in Ontario is tight with 25-30% of farmers not booking forward their needs and the last 20% of urea/28% for end of the season and side dressing could become an issue with the war in Iran as 33% of global nitrogen supplies are stranded in the Gulf.
Most Ontario farmers will stick to a rotation, but a dry start could see more corn acres planted vs. soybeans despite the higher price of fertilizer as higher yields in the end can offset the higher input cost.
Speculators remain the farmers best friend in 2026 as they are very long the grain & oilseed complex on fears of a return to inflation thanks to the war and higher crude oil prices. Their bullishness has reached levels not seen since late March 2021 & 2022, times when balance sheets certainly looked tighter than today. But supplies could be at risk with the over winter drought across North America. With fewer U.S. corn acres, big U.S. bean oil demand, weather scare, U.S.-China trade deal there remains plenty of unknowns for the funds to buy the dips and defend their long positions until more information is known.
The acreage estimates in this report are based primarily on surveys conducted during January – March 2026. The 2026 Farms.com Risk Management Planting Intentions Survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of farmers from across Ontario. This survey used to make acreage estimates is subject to sampling and non-sampling errors that are common to all surveys. Sampling errors represent the variability between estimates that would result if many different samples were surveyed at the same time. Sampling errors for major crops are generally between 1.0 – 3.0% but they cannot be applied directly to the acreage published in this report to determine confidence intervals because the official estimates represent a composite of information from more than a single source.