Midwest Yield Trends
2013 - 2016 Corn & Soybean Yields in the U.S. Midwest
Since 2012, many areas in the greater Midwest had county corn and soybean yields that have exceeded trend yields by a large margin, as discussed by University of Illinois’ Gary Schnitkey on farmdocDAILY. These areas include much of Illinois, southern Wisconsin, eastern Nebraska, Kentucky, southern Indiana, and southern Ohio. On the other hand, other areas have yield averages near trends. These areas include much of northern and central Iowa, Minnesota, and eastern North Dakota. More recent yield experience likely have a higher weight in forming yield expectations for the current year. Farmers in high yielding areas should be cautious of building in too high of yield expectations. Differences in yields will have impacts on financial performance.
For corn, most counties in Illinois had large positive deviations from county yields since 2012. Of the counties for which complete data existed, 61 counties out of 102 counties had county yields that averaged 10 bushels above trend. Only 1 county had the same average yield as trend yield (Iroquois County) and one county had an average below trend (Kankakee County at 3 bushels below trend). Other areas with many counties well above trend include Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Ohio, southern Iowa, Missouri, eastern Nebraska, and southeast South Dakota. On the other hand, there were large areas with counties having yield deviations near average. These areas include northern and central Iowa, much of Minnesota, northern Indiana, and northern and central Ohio.

The 2016 U.S. corn yield at 174.6 bushels per acre was record high, and steeply higher than the previous year. In 2016, there were 5 out of the 12 key corn producing states that produced record yields!
Top U.S. Corn Producing States
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
RECORD |
IA |
165 |
172 |
137 |
164 |
178 |
192 |
203 |
203 |
IL |
157 |
157 |
105 |
178 |
200 |
175 |
197 |
200 |
IN |
157 |
146 |
99 |
177 |
188 |
150 |
173 |
188 |
MN |
177 |
155 |
165 |
159 |
156 |
188 |
193 |
193 |
NE |
166 |
160 |
142 |
169 |
179 |
185 |
178 |
185 |
KS |
124 |
107 |
95 |
126 |
149 |
148 |
142 |
155 |
MO |
123 |
114 |
75 |
136 |
186 |
142 |
163 |
186 |
OH |
160 |
153 |
120 |
174 |
176 |
153 |
159 |
176 |
SD |
135 |
132 |
101 |
137 |
148 |
159 |
161 |
161 |
ND |
132 |
105 |
122 |
110 |
124 |
128 |
158 |
158 |
WI |
162 |
155 |
120 |
145 |
156 |
164 |
178 |
178 |
MI |
149 |
153 |
132 |
155 |
161 |
162 |
157 |
162 |
U.S. TOTAL |
152.6 |
146.8 |
123.1 |
158.1 |
171.0 |
168.40 |
174.6 |
174.6 |
Record 2016 Corn Yields
Source: USDA/WASDE
Similar to corn, soybean yields have averaged above trend for most counties in Illinois, with 31 counties have an average yield 5 bushels over trend. Other areas with yields above trend were Kentucky, southern Illinois, southern Ohio, eastern South Dakota, eastern Nebraska, and eastern Kansas. On the other hand, much of Iowa had soybean yields near average. North Dakota, much of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and many counties of Michigan and Ohio had yields near trend.

The 2016 U.S. soybean national average yield, at 52.1 bushels per acre, broke the previous year’s record, and amazingly all 12 key Midwest soybean producing states had state record yields in 2016!
Top U.S. Soybean Producing States
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
RECORD |
IL |
51.5 |
47.5 |
43.0 |
49.0 |
56.0 |
56.0 |
59.0 |
59.0 |
IA |
51.0 |
51.5 |
45.0 |
45.5 |
51.5 |
56.5 |
60.5 |
60.5 |
MN |
45.0 |
39.0 |
43.5 |
42.0 |
42.0 |
50.0 |
52.5 |
52.5 |
ND |
34.0 |
29.0 |
34.5 |
30.5 |
34.5 |
32.5 |
41.5 |
41.5 |
MO |
42.0 |
36.5 |
30.0 |
36.0 |
46.5 |
40.5 |
49.0 |
49.0 |
IN |
48.5 |
45.5 |
44.0 |
51.5 |
56.0 |
50.0 |
57.5 |
57.5 |
NE |
52.5 |
54.0 |
41.5 |
53.5 |
54.0 |
58.0 |
61.0 |
61.0 |
SD |
38.0 |
37.0 |
30.5 |
40.5 |
45.0 |
46.0 |
49.5 |
49.5 |
OH |
48.0 |
48.0 |
45.0 |
49.5 |
52.5 |
50.0 |
54.5 |
54.5 |
KS |
32.5 |
27.0 |
23.0 |
37.0 |
36.0 |
38.5 |
48.0 |
48.0 |
MI |
43.5 |
44.0 |
43.0 |
44.5 |
43.0 |
49.0 |
50.5 |
50.5 |
WI |
50.5 |
46.5 |
42.0 |
39.0 |
44.0 |
49.5 |
55.0 |
55.0 |
U.S. TOTAL |
43.5 |
42.0 |
40.0 |
44.0 |
47.8 |
48.0 |
52.1 |
52.1 |
Record 2016 Soybean Yields
Source: USDA/WASDE
The FarmdocDAILY study draws 3 implications from the above analysis. First, yield expectations in the current year likely are more heavily influenced by more recent experience. In those areas where yields have been high, it may be tempting to building financial budgets and expectations on relatively high yields. Doing so could result in higher projections of incomes than are warranted. Farmers in Illinois and other recent high yielding areas should be cautious about building in high yield expectations.
Second, the comparison of above average yields in Illinois and near average yields in Iowa is instructive in understanding whether high yields are caused by technological change. The high yields in Illinois in recent years likely are not a result of technological changes. If technological change was causing the yield differences, Iowa would have had above trend yields as well as Illinois. Rather, high Illinois' yields likely are the result of good growing conditions. Over time, areas with good growing conditions will move around the greater Corn Belt, as has happened in the past.
Third, the above yield maps likely are indicative of relative financial performance since 2012. Overall, incomes have been lower since 2012. However, farmers in Illinois and other higher yielding areas likely have fared better than farmers in Iowa and other regions with near average yields. Again, weather variations can change from year-to-year, so areas with higher and lower yields will change over time.
USDA’s latest crop progress data, as of 7-May-2017, shows that recent rains have left ample moisture in the soil and this should aid early crop development.
