Welcome to day 2 of the 2016 U.S. Corn Belt Crop Tour. My name is Moe Agostino, Chief Commodity Strategist with Farms.com Risk Management. It's June 26th, Sunday. It's another hot sunny day - the 2nd day in a row with no rain in the forecast. We are travelling northwest on Hwy 52 towards Brockville Indiana. This has nothing to do with crops but did you know that Indiana produces more ducks than any other U.S. state?
Now, this is a nice corn field here. It is some of the tallest corn we have seen to date but then again it is only day 2 of our tour. This is looking really nice. Looks like 30 inch spaces here and as we continue our tour we will find out whether this state needs some rain like Ohio where a lot of farmers were complaining about a lack of rainfall.
Let's give you some quick stats on Indiana. Corn: The Indiana corn is 72% good to excellent vs national average of 75%. Very poor to poor 6%. The yield last year was 150 - the record was 188. Planted about 5 million acres in 2016. Up 3% from last year. For soybeans, Indiana ranks 5th in total at 5.55 million acres that's 6.7% of the total acres in the U.S. They are up about 50,000 acres from 2015. The yield at 50 in 2015 that is compared to the record at 56. The acres at 5.55 is unchanged vs 2015. For wheat, finally, Indiana is a very small grower. Wheat is actually smaller than Ohio. 0.35 million acres. Up 21% from 2015. The average yield is 68; that is down 8 from 2014. Then, top soil moisture is around 68% adequate to surplus. Sub soil moisture is at 74%. So, both Ohio and now Indiana seem to have enough moisture in the soil to keep it going but you know a lot of these, both Ohio and Indiana, look, this is a little bit further ahead than the corn in Ohio, so it might start to pollinate within the next couple of weeks. Both states probably looking at about mid-July.
[Video clips of Indiana field conditions]
We're travelling north on 121 we are just south of Rushville, Indiana and just wanted to show you another soybean field here. This is stage 1 - no blooms, no pods, no flowering, none of that stuff going on here - still early. Not a bad looking field; not seeing any cracks in the soil yet. But probably needs some moisture soon. We've seen better looking beans across our travels in Indiana. A little bit further ahead than some of the beans in Ohio, but compared to what I have seen the last many years, at this stage, again, they are not as large as I have seen. For example in 2014.
[Video clips of Indiana field conditions]
We are now travelling west on Hwy 44, we are just south of Indianapolis. I wanted to show you this corn field here. You know if I gave it a 1 to 5 rating in terms of health, it's a 1. Good health - nice and green - looks good. You know it's not a 5 where it is totally brown and drying out. But! I am disappointed! I showed you earlier some corn that was at least chest to head high but that's not typical of what we've seen so far in Indiana. I am very disappointed compared to what we've seen the last couple of years. This crop should be further ahead. And to me, whether I'm looking at beans or corn, it looks behind. It looks dry. It looks like a lot of this area needs some moisture.
[Video clips of Indiana field conditions]
We are now traveling north on 231 towards Crawfordsville and we finally found a bean field that is blooming! We haven't seen this thus far so we have traveled further north into Indiana. We are seeing the beans that are further along and this is what it should look like for this time of year. By day 2 of the route, I haven't seen this so it is worrying me as we continue our tour in the state of Indiana.Ohio.
[Video clips of Indiana field conditions]
We are now travelling south on Hwy 41 just north of Terra Haute, Indiana and we finally found, I was getting a little disappointed so far going thru Ohio and Indiana, we finally found some tasseling corn. This is really good healthy looking corn. We even have some ears in here - developing, small ears but nonetheless, probably early planted corn here. Most of the state so far has been average to below average just because of the late planting and too much rain during the planting season in 2016.
[Video clips of Indiana field conditions]
We're travelling south on Hwy 41, we're just few miles north of Decker, Indiana and we are going to end our crop tour in the state of Indiana. It is June 26th - day 2. We just wanted to show you an irrigated field. As we traveled further south, you are seeing more of that here. I wanted to distinguish between dry land corn and irrigated corn. Across the road we did finally see some corn with decent ears and tassels on them, this one not quite there but the good thing about Indiana is that despite the lack of moisture since we have been here, it's not showing any moisture for the next 2 weeks - and of course that can change. But, the night time temperatures are falling below 70 degrees. During the day, corn doesn't like it above 92. Today it felt like 100, but, it's an odd day, not expected to stay that way. But even irrigated corn, if this could produce 250bu per acre, if those night time temp don't give it a break, you could easily chop off - you're talking 210/215, but for now it's looking really good.
The dry land corn in Indiana is very disappointing. We did see some corn that was finally tasseling but it wasn't a common theme from our travels thus far. Including the beans. We saw too many short corn, too many beans that were barely coming out of the ground. Because the state really had an early start but then they got too much rain. Many farmers are basically saying that they planted late, May 24th, but to get maximum yield on corn you needed to plant by May 1st.
Overall we are going to rank the state. For corn I'm going to rank it a 7 just because it is similar to Ohio but think we got some taller corn, earlier planted corn, it's further ahead. This is one of those 'I' states. That is critical, because these 3 'I' states can make up a big chunk of corn. For soybeans we are going to rank it at about a 7. Very disappointed with the size of the bean crops. Again, late planted but we did seem some soybeans that were blooming - it wasn't a common thing, but it was ahead of what we saw in Ohio. As an overall average, I'm going to rank Indiana a little ahead of Ohio but I am disappointed with what I saw. Why? Because I know what I saw in 2014. I know what I saw in 2015. And in 2015 there was a lot more moisture. What a difference a year makes, but if this weather doesn't change and the dryling corn doesn't get the moisture, we could be in for a lower than average crop. At this point I'm going to project that it's an average crop at best.